• Title/Summary/Keyword: In-Sample Predictability

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A RESEARCH ON RISK FACTORS OF ADOLESCENT SEXUAL BEHAVIORS (청소년의 성행동 위험요인에 관한 연구)

  • Park, In-Seon;Baek, Yeon-Ok;Han, In-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.138-148
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    • 2001
  • The focus of the research was on identifying the risk factors that may result in unprepared intercourse among the adolescent from an ecological systems prospective. A survey questionnaire was conducted from September through December 1999 to 2326 youths, ages from 13-18 years old. After eliminating thirty respondents from Unwed Mother's Home we found that 8.8% of the remaining respondents had experienced sexual intercourse. Of those, 5% of the female and 13.4% of male adolescents has had sexual intercourse, showing 2.7 times more for the male sample population. Broken down to age groups, 3.2% of the thirteen years old group and 19.2% of the eighteen years old group had experienced intercourse, an almost six fold increase in the older age group. To find out the differences between those who had and not had experienced intercourse the group was then divided into two comparative groups by same sex and age variables. Findings from comparative analysis identified five ecological system risk factors among the youth sample that had intercourse;First, individual factor:adolescents who thought less of themselves or didn't consider their potentials, those more exposed other risk behaviors such as drinking, smoking, drugs, runaway and come in contact with pornography, those who thought they knew more about sex and etc. Second, family factor:those who thought family was less important, had less supportive family, higher or lower income family and etc. Third, peer factor:Both groups thought friends were important and had their support. The group with intercourse experience seems to be think that more peers are experiencing other risk behavior. Fourth, school factor:Those in the group who had experienced intercourse seems to think school is less important and with lower academic achievements. Fifth, community factor:There were no statistical significant differences found between the two groups. The overall results from this study implies that if we want to prevent our youths from having unprepared intercourse during adolescence the significance of having meaningful emerging self, family relationship and school experience is important. This study identified the risk factors leading to adolescent sexual intercourse but further research is necessary in finding out about their predictability.

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A Study on Mixed-Mode Survey which Combine the Landline and Mobile Telephone Interviews: The Case of Special Election for the Mayor of Seoul (유.무선전화 병행조사에 대한 연구: 2011년 서울시장 보궐선거 여론조사 사례)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Taeg;Lee, Hwa-Jeong;Hyun, Kyung-Bo
    • Survey Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.135-158
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    • 2012
  • Korean telephone surveys have been based on landline telephone directory or RDD(Random Digit Dialing) method. These days, however, there has been an increase of the households with no landline, or households with the line but not willing to register in the directory. Moreover, it is hard to contact young people or office workers who are usually staying out of home in the daytime. Due to these issues above, the predictability of election polls gets weaker. Especially, low accessibility to those who stay out of home when the poll's done, results in predictions with positive inclination toward conservatism. A solution to resolve this problem is to contact respondents by using both mobile and landline phones-via landline phone to those who are at home and via mobile phone to those who are out of home in the daytime(Mixed Mode Survey, hereafter MMS). To conduct MMS, 1) we need to obtain the sampling frames for the landline and mobile surveys, and 2) we need to decide the proportion of sample size of both. In this paper, we propose a heuristic method for conducting MMS. The method uses RDD for the landline phone survey, and the access panel list for the mobile phone survey. The proportion of sample sizes between landline and mobile phones are determined based on the 'Lifestyle and Time Use Study' conducted by Statistics Korea. As a case study, 4 election polls were conducted in the periods of the special election for the mayor of Seoul on Oct 26th, 2011. From the initial 3 polls, reactions and responses regarding the issues raised during the survey period were appropriately covered, and the final poll showed a very close prediction to the real election result.

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Basic Study on the Development of Analytical Instrument for Liquid Pig Manure Component Using Near Infra-Red Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광법을 이용한 돈분뇨 액비 성분분석기 개발을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Choi, D.Y.;Kwag, J.H.;Park, C.H.;Jeong, K.H.;Kim, J.H.;Song, J.I.;Yoo, Y.H.;Chung, M.S.;Yang, C.B.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2007
  • This study was conducted to measure Nitrogen(N), Phosphate($P_2O_5$), Potassium ($K_2O$), Organic matter(OM) and Moisture content of liquid pig manure by Near Infrared Spectroscopy(NIRS) and to develop an alternative and analytical instrument which are used for measurement of N, $P_2O_5$, $K_2O$, OM, and Moisture contents for liquid pig manure. The liquid pig manure sample's transmittance spectra were measured with a NIRS in the wavelength range of 400 to 2,500 nm. Multiple linear regression and partial least square regression were used for calibrations. The correlation coefficient(RSQ) and standard error of calibration(SEC) obtained for nitrogen were 0.9190 and 2.1649, respectively. The RSQ for phosphate, potassium, organic matter and moisture contents were 0.9749, 0.5046, 0.9883 and 0.9777, and the SEC were 0.5019, 1.9252, 0.1180 and 0.0789, respectively. These results are indications of the rapid determination of components of liquid pig manure through the NIR analysis. The simple analytical instrument for liquid pig manure consisted of a tungsten halogen lamp for light source, a sample holder, a quartz cell, a SM 301 spectrometer for spectrum analyzer, a power supply, an electronics, a computer and a software. Results showed that the simple analytical instrument that was developed can approximately predict the phosphate, organic matter and moisture content of the liquid pig manure when compared to the analysis taken by NIRS. The low predictability value of potassium however, needs further investigation. Generally, the experiment proved that the simple analytical instrument was reliable, feasible and practical for analyzing liquid pig manure.

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An evaluation of the adequacy of pont's index (Pont 지수의 임상적 적합성에 대한 평가)

  • Kim, Seong-Hun;Lee, Ki-Soo
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.30 no.1 s.78
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2000
  • Dental arch expansion is one of the method used to solve the dental crowding problem by non-extraction. Many formulae using tooth size have been suggested to predict ideal inter-premolar and inter-molar width. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of some upper dental arch width prediction methods, namely Pont's method, Schmuth's method and Cha's method. The sample consisted of the casts of 119 Korean young adults who had no muscular abnormality, no skeletal discrepancy, and Angle's Class I molar relationships. Measurements were obtained directly from plaster casts; they Included mesiodistal crown diameters of the four maxillary incisors, as well as maxillary inter-first-premolar and inter-first-molar arch widths as specified by Pont. The correlation coefficients between the sum of incisors(SI) and upper dental arch width were calculated. The differences between predicted width and actual width were classified as overestimated, properestimated, and underestimated. The data obtained from each group were analyzed for statistical differences. The results were as follows : 1. Upper dental arch width indices were calculated from SI in normal occlusion (81.96 : premolar index, 62.55 : molar index). 2. Low correlations between SI and arch width were noted in normal occlusion (0.50 in the inter-premolar width, 0.39 in the inter-molar width). 3. Pont's formula and Schmuth's formula tended to overestimate the inter-premolar width. A more even distribution of estimates was noted in Cha's fomula. 4. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-premolar width were $45\%$ in the Cha's formula, $40\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $39\%$ in the Schmuth's formula. 5. All formulae had a tendency to underestimate the inter-molar width, but Cha's formula had better predictability than others. 6. Cases within $\pm$1 mm range of observed inter-molar width were $40\%$ in the Cha's formula, $29\%$ in the Pont's formula, and $13\%$ of Schmuth's formula. The data presented in this study does not support the clinical usefulness of ideal arch width prediction methods using the mesiodistal width of maxillary incisors.

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Nose Changes after Maxillary Advancement Surgery in Skeletal Class III Malocclusion (골격성 III급 부정교합자에서 상악골 전방 이동술 후 코의 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Eun-Hee;Park, Soo-Byung;Kim, Jong-Ryoul
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.30 no.5 s.82
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the amount and interrelationship of the soft tissue of nose and maxillary changes and to identify the nasal morphologic features that indicate susceptibility to nasal deflection in such a manner that they would be useful in presurgical prediction of nasal changes after maxillary advancement surgery in skeletal Class III malocclusion. The sample consisted of 25 adult patients (13 males and 12 females) who had severe anteroposterior skeletal discrepancy. The patients had received presurgical orthodontic treatment. They underwent a Le Fort I advancement osteotomy, rigid internal fixation, alar cinch suture and V-Y advancement lip closure. The presurgical and postsurgical lateral cephalograms and lateral and frontal facial photographs were evaluated. The computerized statistical analysis was carried out. Soft tissue of nose change to h point change ratios were calculated by regression equations. The results were as follows 1. The correlation of maxillary hard tissue horizontal changes and nasal soft tissue vortical changes were high and the ${\beta}_0$ for soft tissue to ADV were 0.228 at ANt, 0.257 at SNt. 2. The correlation of maxillary hard tissue and nasal soft tissue horizontal changes were high and the ${\beta}_0$ for soft tissue to ADV were 0.484 at ANt, 0.431 at SNt, 0.806 at Sn. 3. The correlation of maxillary hard tissue horizontal changes and width changes of ala of nose were high and the ${\beta}_0$ lot alar base width ratio to ADV were 0.002. 4. The DRI, Prominence of nose, Pre-Op CA is not a quantitative measure that can be used clinically to improve the predictability of vertical and horizontal nasal tip deflection. In this study, increases in nasal tip projection and anterosuperior rotation occur when there is an anterior vector of maxillary movement. These nasal changes were Quantitatively correlated to magnitude of maxillary(A point) movement.

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