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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

A Study on the Landscape Philosophy of Hageohwon Garden (별업 하거원(何去園) 원림에 투영된 조영사상 연구)

  • Shin, Sang-Sup;Kim, Hyun-Wuk;Kang, Hyun-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.46-56
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    • 2012
  • The research results of tracing the Landscape Philosophy of Hageowon garden(何去園) in Musu-dong, Daejon of Youhwadang, Kwon, Iijin(權以鎭, 1668-1734) is as below. The ideological background of the protagonist reflected in Hageowon is the Hyoje Ideology(filial piety and brotherly love, 孝弟) of Sinjongchuwon(painstakingly caring for one's ancestors), Musil ideology(pursuing ethical diligence and truthful mind, 務實) based on sadistic tradition and ethical rationalism, Confucionist Eunil Ideology(ideology on seclusion, 隱逸) of Cheonghanjiyeon(quiet relaxation, 淸閒之燕), and the Pungryu ideology(appreciation for the arts, 風流) of Taoism in the Taoist style. Thus, by substituting these ideological values into a space called Hageowon, the Byulup gardens(別業) such as the Symbolic garden(象徵園), meaning gaeden(意園), and miniascape garden(縮景園) were able to be constructed. 2) The space organization system of Hageowon is generally classified into three phases considering the hierarchy. The first territory is the transitional space having residential features, which is an area to reach peach tree - road(Taoist world 桃經) from Youhwadang(有懷堂). The second territory is a monumental memorial space where the Yocheondae(繞千臺), Jangwoodam(丈藕潭), Hwagae(花階), and the ancestral graves take place, centering on the yards of Sumanheon(收漫軒), and the third territory is the secluded space in the eastern outer garden where the mountain stream flows from the north to south and which is the vein of the left-hand blue dragon(靑龍) of the guardian mountain of Hageowon. 3) Symbolically, the first phase has symbolized the space as a meaningful scenery by overlapping the Confucionist place of Youhwadang - Gosudae(孤秀臺) - Odeokdae(五德臺), and the mystic world of Jukcheondang(竹遷堂) - peach tree - road(桃徑). The second phase, which is the space of Sumanheon(收漫軒), Yocheondae, and Jangwoodam, the symbolical value of Sinjongchuwon(愼終追遠) and the remembrance and longing for one's parents are reflected. The third phase, which is the eastern outer garden of Hageowon and where the mountain stream flows from the north to south, is composed of the east valley(東溪) - Hwalsudam(活水潭) - Sumi Waterfall(修眉瀑布). More specifically, (1) Mongjeong symbolizes the life of gaining knowledge through studying to realize one's foolishness, (2) Hwalsudam symbolizes a transcending attitude in life refusing to pursue wealth and fame, and (3) Jangwoodam symbolizes the gateway to the fairyland to enter the world of mystic gods. 4) The rationale behind Hageowon is that the two algorithms of Confucionism and Taoist Theory appear repeatedly and in an overlapping way. The Napoji(納汚池) and Hwalsudam, which pertains to the prelude of space development, has symbolized Susimyangseong(修心養成, meditating one's mind and improving one's nature), which is based on ethical rationalism. Moreover, if the Monjeong sphere pertaining to the eastern outer garden of Hageowon takes the Confucionist value system as its theme, including moral training, studying, and researching, Jangwudam, Sumi Waterfalls, and Unwa can be understood as a taste of Cheokbyeon(滌煩, eliminating troubles) for the arts where the mystic world is substituted as a meaningful scenery. 5) The miniascape technique called artificial mountain was substituted to Hageowon to construct a mystic world like the 12 peaks of Mt. Mu(巫山). By borrowing the symbolic meaning expressed in old poems, it has been named 'Habang(1/何放), Hwabong(2, 3/和峯), Chulgun(4, 5, 6/出群), Sinwan(7/神浣), Chwhigyu(8, 9, 10/聚糾), Cheomyo(11/處杳), Giyung(12/氣融).' The representative poet reciting artificial mountain were Wangeui(汪醫), Nosamgang(魯三江), Dubo(杜甫), Hanyou(韓愈), Jeonheaseong(錢希聖), and Beomseokho(范石湖). They related themselves with literature by transcending time and space and attempted to sing about the richness of the mental world by putting the mystic world and culture of appreciating the arts they pursued in the vacation home called Hageowon.

A Study on Forestation for Landscaping around the Lakes in the Upper Watersheds of North Han River (북한강상류수계(北漢江上流水系)의 호수단지주변삼림(湖水団地周辺森林)의 풍경적시업(風景的施業)에 관(関)한 연구(硏究))

  • Ho, Ul Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 1981
  • Kangweon-Do is rich in sightseeing resources. There are three sightseeing areas;first, mountain area including Seolak and Ohdae National Parks, and chiak Provincial Park; second eastern coastal area; third lake area including the watersheds of North Han River. In this paper, several methods of forestation were studied for landscaping the North Han River watersheds centering around Chounchon. In Chunchon lake complex, there are four lakes; Uiam, Chunchon, Soyang and Paro from down to upper stream. The total surface area of the above four lakes is $14.4km^2$ the total pondage of them 4,155 million $m^3$, the total generation of electric power of them 410 thousand Kw, and the total forest area bordering on them $1,208km^2$. The bordering forest consists of planned management forest ($745km^2$) and non-planned management forest ($463km^2$). The latter is divided into green belt zone, natural conservation area, and protection forest. The forest in green belt amounts to $177km^2$ and centers around the 10km radios from Chunchon. The forest in natural conservation area amounts to $165km^2$, which is established within 2km sight range from the Soyang-lake sides. Protection forest surrounding the lakes is $121km^2$ There are many scenic places, recreation gardens, cultural goods and ruins in this lake complex, which are the same good tourist resources as lakes and forest. The forest encirelng the lakes has the poor average growing stock of $15m^3/ha$, because 70% of the forest consists of the young plantation of 1 to 2 age class. The ration of the needle-leaved forest, the broad-leaved forest and the mixed forest in 35:37:28. From the standpoint of ownership, the forest consists of national forest (36%), provincial forest (14%), Gun forest (5%) and private forest(45%). The greater part of the forest soil, originated from granite and gneiss, is much liable to weathering. Because the surface soil is mostly sterile, the fertilization for improving the soil quality is strongly urged. Considering the above-mentioned, the forestation methods for improving landscape of the North Han River Watersheds are suggested as follows: 1) The mature-stage forest should be induced by means of fertilizing and tendering, as the forest in this area is the young plantation with poor soil. 2) The bare land should be afforested by planting the rapid growing species, such as rigida pine, alder, and etc. 3) The bare land in the canyon with moderate moist and comparatively rich soil should be planted with Korean-pine, larch, ro fir. 4) Japaness-pine stand should be changed into Korean-pine, fir, spruce or hemlock stand from ravine to top gradually, because the Japanese-pine has poor capacity of water conservation and great liability to pine gall midge. 5) Present hard-wood forest, consisting of miscellaneous trees comparatively less valuable from the point of wood quality and scenerity, should be change into oak, maple, fraxinus-rhynchophylla, birch or juglan stand which is comparatively more valuable. 6) In the mountain foot within the sight-range, stands should be established with such species as cherry, weeping willow, white poplar, machilus, maiden-hair tree, juniper, chestnut or apricot. 7) The regeneration of some broad-leaved forests should be induced to the middle forest type, leading to the harmonious arrangement of the two storied forest and the coppice. 8) For the preservation of scenery, the reproduction of the soft-wood forest should be done under the selection method or the shelter-wood system. 9) Mixed forest should be regenerated under the middle forest system with upper needle-leaved forest and lower broad-leaved forest. In brief, the nature's mysteriousness should be conserved by combining the womanly elegance of the lakes and the manly grandeur of the forest.

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Dosimetric evaluation of using in-house BoS Frame Fixation Tool for the Head and Neck Cancer Patient (두경부암 환자의 양성자 치료 시 사용하는 자체 제작한 BoS Frame 고정장치의 선량학적 유용성 평가)

  • Kim, kwang suk;Jo, kwang hyun;Choi, byeon ki
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.35-46
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    • 2016
  • Purpose : BoS(Base of Skull) Frame, the fixation tool which is used for the proton of brain cancer increases the lateral penumbra by increasing the airgap (the distance between patient and beam jet), due to the collision of the beam of the posterior oblique direction. Thus, we manufactured the fixation tool per se for improving the limits of BoS frame, and we'd like to evaluate the utility of the manufactured fixation tool throughout this study. Materials and Methods : We've selected the 3 patients of brain cancer who have received the proton therapy from our hospital, and also selected the 6 beam angles; for this, we've selected the beam angle of the posterior oblique direction. We' ve measured the planned BoS frame and the distance of Snout for each beam which are planned for the treatment of the patient using the BoS frame. After this, we've proceeded with the set-up that is above the location which was recommended by the manufacturer of the BoS frame, at the same beam angle of the same patient, by using our in-house Bos frame fixation tool. The set-up was above 21 cm toward the superior direction, compared to the situation when the BoS frame was only used with the basic couch. After that, we've stacked the snout to the BoS frame as much as possible, and measured the distance of snout. We've also measured the airgap, based on the gap of that snout distance; and we've proceeded the normalization based on each dose (100% of each dose), after that, we've conducted the comparative analysis of lateral penumbra. Moreover, we've established the treatment plan according to the changed airgap which has been transformed to the Raystation 5.0 proton therapy planning system, and we've conducted the comparative analysis of DVH(Dose Volume Histogram). Results : When comparing the result before using the in-house Bos frame fixation tool which was manufactured for each beam angle with the result after using the fixation tool, we could figure out that airgap than when not used in accordance with the use of the in-house Bos frame fixation tool was reduced by 5.4 cm ~ 15.4 cm, respectively angle. The reduced snout distance means the airgap. Lateral Penumbra could reduce left, right, 0.1 cm ~ 0.4 cm by an angle in accordance with decreasing the airgap while using each beam angle in-house Bos frame fixation tool. Due to the reduced lateral penumbra, Lt.eyeball, Lt.lens, Lt. hippocampus, Lt. cochlea, Rt. eyeball, Rt. lens, Rt. cochlea, Rt. hippocampus, stem that can be seen that the dose is decreased by 0 CGE ~ 4.4 CGE. Conclusion : It was possible to reduced the airgap by using our in-house Bos frame fixation tool for the proton therapy; as a result, it was possible to figure out that the lateral penumbra reduced. Moreover, it was also possible to check through the comparative analysis of the treatment plan that when we reduce the lateral penumbra, the reduction of the unnecessary irradiation for the normal tissues. Therefore, Using the posterior oblique the Brain cancer proton therapy should be preceded by decreasing the airgap, by using our in-house Bos frame fixation tool; also, the continuous efforts for reducing the airgap as much as possible for the proton therapy of other area will be necessary as well.

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A Study on the Expressed Desire at Discharge of Patients to Use Home Nursing and Affecting Factors of the Desire (퇴원환자의 가정간호 이용의사와 관련 요인)

  • Lee, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Young-Eun;Lee, Myung-Hwa;Sohn, Sue-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.257-270
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    • 1999
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate factors related to the intent of using home nursing of chronic disease patients who got out of a university hospital. For the purpose, the study selected 153 patients who were hospitalized and left K university hospital with diagnoses of cancer, hypertension, diabetes and cerebral vascular accident and ordered to be discharged and performed interviews with them and surveys on their medical records to obtain the following results. For this study a direct-interview survey and medical record review was conducted from June 28 to Aug. 30, 1998. The frequency and mean values were computed to find the characteristics of the study subjects, and $X^2$-test, t-test, factor analysis and multiple logistic regession analysis were applied for the analysis of the data. The following results were obtained. 1) When characteristics of the subjects were examined, men and women occupied for 58.8% and 41.2%, respectively. The subjects were 41.3 years old in aver age and had the monthly aver age earning of 0.99 million won or below, which was the most out of the total subjects at 34.6%. Among the total, 87.6% resided in cities and 12.4 in counties. The most left the hospital with diagnosis of cancer at 51.6%, followed by hyper tension at 24.2%, diabetes at 13.7% and cerebral vascular accident at 7.2%. 2) 93.5% of the selected patients had the intent of using home nursing and 6.5%, didn't. Among those patients having the intent, 85.6% had the intent of paying for home nursing and 14.4%, didn't. The subjects expected that the nursing would be paid 9,143 won in aver age and 47.7% of them preferred national authorities as the main servers. 86.3% of the subjects thought that home nursing business had the main advantage of making it possible to learn nursing methods at home and thereby contributing to improving the ability of patients and their facilities to solve health problems. 3) Relations between the intent of use and characteristics of the subjects such as demography-related social, home environment, disease and physical function characteristics did not show statistically significant differences among one another. Compared to those who had no intent of using home nursing, the group having the intent had more cases of male patients, the age of 39 or below, residence in cities, 5 family member s or more, no existence of home nursing servers, leaving the hospital from a non-hospitalized building, disease development for five months or below, hospitalization for ten days or more, non-hospitalization with in the recent one month, two times or over of hospitalization, leaving the hospital with no demand of special treatment, operation underwent, poor results of treatment, leaving the hospital with demand of rehabilitation services, physical disablement and high evaluation point of daily life. 4) Among those patients having the intent of using home nursing, 47.6% demanded technical nursing and 55.9%, supportive nursing. As technical nursing,' inject into a blood vessel ' and 'treat pustule and teach basic prevention methods occupied for 57.4%, respectively, topping the list. Among demands of supportive nursing, 'observe patients 'status and refer them to hospitals or community resources as available, if necessary' was the most with percent age point of 59.5. Regarding the intent of paying for home nursing, 39.2% of those patients wishing to use the nursing responded paying for technical services and 20.2, supportive services. In detail, 70.0% wanted to pay for a service stated as 'inject into a blood vessel', highest among the former services and 30.7%, a service referred to as 'teaching exercises needed to make the body of patients move', highest among the latter. When this was analyzed in terms of a relation between the need(the need for home nursing) and the demand(the intent of paying for home nursing), The rate of the need to the demand was found two or three times higher in technical nursing(0.82) than in supportive nursing(0.35). In aspects of tech ical nursing, muscle injection(1.26, the 1st rank) was highest in the rate while among aspects of supportive nursing, a service referred to as 'teach exercises needed for making patients move their bodies normally'(0.58, the 1st rank). 5) factors I(satisfaction with hospital services), II(recognition of disease state), III(economy) and IV(period of disease) occupied for 34.4, 13.8, 11.9 and 9.2 percents, respectively among factors related to the intent by the subjects of using home nursing, totaled 59.3%. In conclusion, most of chronic disease patients have the intent of using hospital-based home nursing and satisfaction with hospital services is a factor affecting the intent most. Thus a post-management system is needed to continue providing health management to those patients after they leave the hospital. Further, supportive services should be provided in order that those who are satisfied with hospital services return to their community and live their in dependent lives. Based on these results, the researcher would make the following recommendation. 1) Because home nursing becomes more and more needed due to a sharp increase in chronic disease patients and elderly people, related rules and regulations should be made and implemented. 2) Hospital nurses specializing in home nursing should be cultivated.

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The 1998, 1999 Patterns of Care Study for Breast Irradiation after Mastectomy in Korea (1998, 1999년도 우리나라에서 시행된 근치적 유방 전절제술 후 방사선치료 현황 조사)

  • Keum,, Ki-Chang;Shim, Su-Jung;Lee, Ik-Jae;Park, Won;Lee, Sang-Wook;Shin, Hyun-Soo;Chung, Eun-Ji;Chie, Eui-Kyu;Kim, Il-Han;Oh, Do-Hoon;Ha, Sung-Whan;Lee, Hyung-Sik;Ahn, Sung-Ja
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.7-15
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    • 2007
  • [ $\underline{Purpose}$ ]: To determine the patterns of evaluation and treatment in patients with breast cancer after mastectomy and treated with radiotherapy. A nationwide study was performed with the goal of improving radiotherapy treatment. $\underline{Materials\;and\;Methods}$: A web- based database system for the Korean Patterns of Care Study (PCS) for 6 common cancers was developed. Randomly selected records of 286 eligible patients treated between 1998 and 1999 from 17 hospitals were reviewed. $\underline{Results}$: The ages of the study patients ranged from 20 to 80 years (median age 44 years). The pathologic T stage by the AJCC was T1 in 9.7% of the cases, T2 in 59.2% of the cases, T3 in 25.6% of the cases, and T4 in 5.3% of the cases. For analysis of nodal involvement, N0 was 7.3%, N1 was 14%, N2 was 38.8%, and N3 was 38.5% of the cases. The AJCC stage was stage I in 0.7% of the cases, stage IIa in 3.8% of the cases, stage IIb in 9.8% of the cases, stage IIIa in 43% of the cases, stage IIIb in 2.8% of the cases, and IIIc in 38.5% of the cases. There were various sequences of chemotherapy and radiotherapy after mastectomy. Mastectomy and chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy was the most commonly performed sequence in 47% of the cases. Mastectomy, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy followed by additional chemotherapy was performed in 35% of the cases, and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was performed in 12.5% of the cases. The radiotherapy volume was chest wall only in 5.6% of the cases. The volume was chest wall and supraclavicular fossa (SCL) in 20.3% of the cases; chest wall, SCL and internal mammary lymph node (IMN) in 27.6% of the cases; chest wall, SCL and posterior axillary lymph node in 25.9% of the cases; chest wall, SCL, IMN, and posterior axillary lymph node in 19.9% of the cases. Two patients received IMN only. The method of chest wall irradiation was tangential field in 57.3% of the cases and electron beam in 42% of the cases. A bolus for the chest wall was used in 54.8% of the tangential field cases and 52.5% of the electron beam cases. The radiation dose to the chest wall was $45{\sim}59.4\;Gy$ (median 50.4 Gy), to the SCL was $45{\sim}59.4\;Gy$ (median 50.4 Gy), and to the PAB was $4.8{\sim}38.8\;Gy$, (median 9 Gy) $\underline{Conclusion}$: Different and various treatment methods were used for radiotherapy of the breast cancer patients after mastectomy in each hospital. Most of treatment methods varied in the irradiation of the chest wall. A separate analysis for the details of radiotherapy planning also needs to be followed and the outcome of treatment is needed in order to evaluate the different processes.

Factors Related to Waiting and Staying Time for Patient Care in Emergency Care Center (응급의료센터 내원환자 진료시 소요시간과 관련된 요인)

  • Han, Nam Sook;Park, Jae Yong;Lee, Sam Beom;Do, Byung Soo;Kim, Seok Beom
    • Quality Improvement in Health Care
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.138-155
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    • 2000
  • Background: Factors related to waiting and staying time for patient care in emergency care center (ECC) were examined during 1 month from Apr. 1 to Apr. 30, 1997 at an ECC of Yeungnam university hospital in Taegu metropolitan city, to obtain the baseline data on the strategy of effective management of emergency patients. Method: The study subjects consisted of the 1,742 patients who visited at ECC and the data were obtained from the medical records of ECC and direct surveys. Results: The mean interval between ECC admission time and initial care time by each ECC duty residents was 83.1 minutes for male patients and 84.9 minutes for female patients, and mean ECC staying time (time interval between admission and final disposition from ECC) was 718.0 minutes in men and 670.5 minutes in women. As the results, the mean staying time in ECC was higher in older age, and especially the both of initial care time and staying time were highest in patients of medical aid, and shortest in patients of worker's accident compensation insurance. The on admission or not, previously endotracheal-intubation state of patient. The ECC staying ti initial care time was much more delayed in patients of not having previous medical records and the ECC staying time was higher in referred patients from out-patient department, in transferred patients from the other hospitals and patients having previous records, and in patients partly used the order-communicating system. The factors associated with the initial care time were the numbers of ECC patients and the existence of any true emergent patients, being cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) statusme was much more longer in patients of drug intoxication, in CPR patients, in medical department patients, in transfused patients and in patients related to 3 or more departments. And according to the numbers of duty internships, the ECC staying time for four internships was more longer than for five internships and after admission ordering was done, also-more longer in status being of no available beds. As above mentioned results, the factors for the ECC staying time were thought to be statistically significant (P<0.01) according to the patient's age and the laboratory orders and the X-ray films checked. And also the factor for the ECC staying time were thought to be statistically significant (P<0.01) according to the status being of no available beds, the laboratory orders and/or the special laboratory orders, the X-ray films checked, final disposing department, transferred to other hospital or not, home medication or not, admission or not, the grades of beds, the year grades of residents, the causes of ECC visit, the being CPR status on admission or not, the surgical operation or not, being known personells in our hospital. Conclution: Authors concluded that the relieving method of long-staying time in ECC was being establishing the legally proved apparatus which could differentiate the true emergency or non-emergency patients, and that the methods of shortening ECC staying time were doing definitely necessary laboratory orders and managing beds more flexibly to admit for ECC patients and finally this methods were thought to be a method of unloading for ECC personnels and improving the quality of care in emergency patients.

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A Study of Factors Associated with Software Developers Job Turnover (데이터마이닝을 활용한 소프트웨어 개발인력의 업무 지속수행의도 결정요인 분석)

  • Jeon, In-Ho;Park, Sun W.;Park, Yoon-Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.191-204
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    • 2015
  • According to the '2013 Performance Assessment Report on the Financial Program' from the National Assembly Budget Office, the unfilled recruitment ratio of Software(SW) Developers in South Korea was 25% in the 2012 fiscal year. Moreover, the unfilled recruitment ratio of highly-qualified SW developers reaches almost 80%. This phenomenon is intensified in small and medium enterprises consisting of less than 300 employees. Young job-seekers in South Korea are increasingly avoiding becoming a SW developer and even the current SW developers want to change careers, which hinders the national development of IT industries. The Korean government has recently realized the problem and implemented policies to foster young SW developers. Due to this effort, it has become easier to find young SW developers at the beginning-level. However, it is still hard to recruit highly-qualified SW developers for many IT companies. This is because in order to become a SW developing expert, having a long term experiences are important. Thus, improving job continuity intentions of current SW developers is more important than fostering new SW developers. Therefore, this study surveyed the job continuity intentions of SW developers and analyzed the factors associated with them. As a method, we carried out a survey from September 2014 to October 2014, which was targeted on 130 SW developers who were working in IT industries in South Korea. We gathered the demographic information and characteristics of the respondents, work environments of a SW industry, and social positions for SW developers. Afterward, a regression analysis and a decision tree method were performed to analyze the data. These two methods are widely used data mining techniques, which have explanation ability and are mutually complementary. We first performed a linear regression method to find the important factors assaociated with a job continuity intension of SW developers. The result showed that an 'expected age' to work as a SW developer were the most significant factor associated with the job continuity intention. We supposed that the major cause of this phenomenon is the structural problem of IT industries in South Korea, which requires SW developers to change the work field from developing area to management as they are promoted. Also, a 'motivation' to become a SW developer and a 'personality (introverted tendency)' of a SW developer are highly importantly factors associated with the job continuity intention. Next, the decision tree method was performed to extract the characteristics of highly motivated developers and the low motivated ones. We used well-known C4.5 algorithm for decision tree analysis. The results showed that 'motivation', 'personality', and 'expected age' were also important factors influencing the job continuity intentions, which was similar to the results of the regression analysis. In addition to that, the 'ability to learn' new technology was a crucial factor for the decision rules of job continuity. In other words, a person with high ability to learn new technology tends to work as a SW developer for a longer period of time. The decision rule also showed that a 'social position' of SW developers and a 'prospect' of SW industry were minor factors influencing job continuity intensions. On the other hand, 'type of an employment (regular position/ non-regular position)' and 'type of company (ordering company/ service providing company)' did not affect the job continuity intension in both methods. In this research, we demonstrated the job continuity intentions of SW developers, who were actually working at IT companies in South Korea, and we analyzed the factors associated with them. These results can be used for human resource management in many IT companies when recruiting or fostering highly-qualified SW experts. It can also help to build SW developer fostering policy and to solve the problem of unfilled recruitment of SW Developers in South Korea.

Development and application of prediction model of hyperlipidemia using SVM and meta-learning algorithm (SVM과 meta-learning algorithm을 이용한 고지혈증 유병 예측모형 개발과 활용)

  • Lee, Seulki;Shin, Taeksoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2018
  • This study aims to develop a classification model for predicting the occurrence of hyperlipidemia, one of the chronic diseases. Prior studies applying data mining techniques for predicting disease can be classified into a model design study for predicting cardiovascular disease and a study comparing disease prediction research results. In the case of foreign literatures, studies predicting cardiovascular disease were predominant in predicting disease using data mining techniques. Although domestic studies were not much different from those of foreign countries, studies focusing on hypertension and diabetes were mainly conducted. Since hypertension and diabetes as well as chronic diseases, hyperlipidemia, are also of high importance, this study selected hyperlipidemia as the disease to be analyzed. We also developed a model for predicting hyperlipidemia using SVM and meta learning algorithms, which are already known to have excellent predictive power. In order to achieve the purpose of this study, we used data set from Korea Health Panel 2012. The Korean Health Panel produces basic data on the level of health expenditure, health level and health behavior, and has conducted an annual survey since 2008. In this study, 1,088 patients with hyperlipidemia were randomly selected from the hospitalized, outpatient, emergency, and chronic disease data of the Korean Health Panel in 2012, and 1,088 nonpatients were also randomly extracted. A total of 2,176 people were selected for the study. Three methods were used to select input variables for predicting hyperlipidemia. First, stepwise method was performed using logistic regression. Among the 17 variables, the categorical variables(except for length of smoking) are expressed as dummy variables, which are assumed to be separate variables on the basis of the reference group, and these variables were analyzed. Six variables (age, BMI, education level, marital status, smoking status, gender) excluding income level and smoking period were selected based on significance level 0.1. Second, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. The significant input variables were age, smoking status, and education level. Finally, C4.5 as a decision tree algorithm is used. In SVM, the input variables selected by genetic algorithms consisted of 6 variables such as age, marital status, education level, economic activity, smoking period, and physical activity status, and the input variables selected by genetic algorithms in artificial neural network consist of 3 variables such as age, marital status, and education level. Based on the selected parameters, we compared SVM, meta learning algorithm and other prediction models for hyperlipidemia patients, and compared the classification performances using TP rate and precision. The main results of the analysis are as follows. First, the accuracy of the SVM was 88.4% and the accuracy of the artificial neural network was 86.7%. Second, the accuracy of classification models using the selected input variables through stepwise method was slightly higher than that of classification models using the whole variables. Third, the precision of artificial neural network was higher than that of SVM when only three variables as input variables were selected by decision trees. As a result of classification models based on the input variables selected through the genetic algorithm, classification accuracy of SVM was 88.5% and that of artificial neural network was 87.9%. Finally, this study indicated that stacking as the meta learning algorithm proposed in this study, has the best performance when it uses the predicted outputs of SVM and MLP as input variables of SVM, which is a meta classifier. The purpose of this study was to predict hyperlipidemia, one of the representative chronic diseases. To do this, we used SVM and meta-learning algorithms, which is known to have high accuracy. As a result, the accuracy of classification of hyperlipidemia in the stacking as a meta learner was higher than other meta-learning algorithms. However, the predictive performance of the meta-learning algorithm proposed in this study is the same as that of SVM with the best performance (88.6%) among the single models. The limitations of this study are as follows. First, various variable selection methods were tried, but most variables used in the study were categorical dummy variables. In the case with a large number of categorical variables, the results may be different if continuous variables are used because the model can be better suited to categorical variables such as decision trees than general models such as neural networks. Despite these limitations, this study has significance in predicting hyperlipidemia with hybrid models such as met learning algorithms which have not been studied previously. It can be said that the result of improving the model accuracy by applying various variable selection techniques is meaningful. In addition, it is expected that our proposed model will be effective for the prevention and management of hyperlipidemia.

Sentiment Analysis of Korean Reviews Using CNN: Focusing on Morpheme Embedding (CNN을 적용한 한국어 상품평 감성분석: 형태소 임베딩을 중심으로)

  • Park, Hyun-jung;Song, Min-chae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-83
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    • 2018
  • With the increasing importance of sentiment analysis to grasp the needs of customers and the public, various types of deep learning models have been actively applied to English texts. In the sentiment analysis of English texts by deep learning, natural language sentences included in training and test datasets are usually converted into sequences of word vectors before being entered into the deep learning models. In this case, word vectors generally refer to vector representations of words obtained through splitting a sentence by space characters. There are several ways to derive word vectors, one of which is Word2Vec used for producing the 300 dimensional Google word vectors from about 100 billion words of Google News data. They have been widely used in the studies of sentiment analysis of reviews from various fields such as restaurants, movies, laptops, cameras, etc. Unlike English, morpheme plays an essential role in sentiment analysis and sentence structure analysis in Korean, which is a typical agglutinative language with developed postpositions and endings. A morpheme can be defined as the smallest meaningful unit of a language, and a word consists of one or more morphemes. For example, for a word '예쁘고', the morphemes are '예쁘(= adjective)' and '고(=connective ending)'. Reflecting the significance of Korean morphemes, it seems reasonable to adopt the morphemes as a basic unit in Korean sentiment analysis. Therefore, in this study, we use 'morpheme vector' as an input to a deep learning model rather than 'word vector' which is mainly used in English text. The morpheme vector refers to a vector representation for the morpheme and can be derived by applying an existent word vector derivation mechanism to the sentences divided into constituent morphemes. By the way, here come some questions as follows. What is the desirable range of POS(Part-Of-Speech) tags when deriving morpheme vectors for improving the classification accuracy of a deep learning model? Is it proper to apply a typical word vector model which primarily relies on the form of words to Korean with a high homonym ratio? Will the text preprocessing such as correcting spelling or spacing errors affect the classification accuracy, especially when drawing morpheme vectors from Korean product reviews with a lot of grammatical mistakes and variations? We seek to find empirical answers to these fundamental issues, which may be encountered first when applying various deep learning models to Korean texts. As a starting point, we summarized these issues as three central research questions as follows. First, which is better effective, to use morpheme vectors from grammatically correct texts of other domain than the analysis target, or to use morpheme vectors from considerably ungrammatical texts of the same domain, as the initial input of a deep learning model? Second, what is an appropriate morpheme vector derivation method for Korean regarding the range of POS tags, homonym, text preprocessing, minimum frequency? Third, can we get a satisfactory level of classification accuracy when applying deep learning to Korean sentiment analysis? As an approach to these research questions, we generate various types of morpheme vectors reflecting the research questions and then compare the classification accuracy through a non-static CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) model taking in the morpheme vectors. As for training and test datasets, Naver Shopping's 17,260 cosmetics product reviews are used. To derive morpheme vectors, we use data from the same domain as the target one and data from other domain; Naver shopping's about 2 million cosmetics product reviews and 520,000 Naver News data arguably corresponding to Google's News data. The six primary sets of morpheme vectors constructed in this study differ in terms of the following three criteria. First, they come from two types of data source; Naver news of high grammatical correctness and Naver shopping's cosmetics product reviews of low grammatical correctness. Second, they are distinguished in the degree of data preprocessing, namely, only splitting sentences or up to additional spelling and spacing corrections after sentence separation. Third, they vary concerning the form of input fed into a word vector model; whether the morphemes themselves are entered into a word vector model or with their POS tags attached. The morpheme vectors further vary depending on the consideration range of POS tags, the minimum frequency of morphemes included, and the random initialization range. All morpheme vectors are derived through CBOW(Continuous Bag-Of-Words) model with the context window 5 and the vector dimension 300. It seems that utilizing the same domain text even with a lower degree of grammatical correctness, performing spelling and spacing corrections as well as sentence splitting, and incorporating morphemes of any POS tags including incomprehensible category lead to the better classification accuracy. The POS tag attachment, which is devised for the high proportion of homonyms in Korean, and the minimum frequency standard for the morpheme to be included seem not to have any definite influence on the classification accuracy.