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The Influence of Aging on Pulmonary Function Tests in Elderly Korean Population (한국에서 노화에 따른 폐기능지표의 변화양상)

  • Lee, Jae-Myung;Kim, Eun-Jung;Kang, Min-Jong;Son, Jee-Woong;Lee, Seung-Joon;Kim, Dong-Gyu;Park, Myung-Jae;Lee, Myung-Goo;Hyun, In-Gyu;Jung, Ki-Suck
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.752-759
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    • 2000
  • Background : Many studies have shown that pulmonary function differs widely among race, age and geographical residency. By virtue of the improvement of nutrition and environment, the elderly population in Korea is markedly increasing and so are the ages of patients complaining respiratory symptoms. However, we do not have our own data on the pulmonary functional reserve of elderly persons in Korea. We evaluate the deterioration of pulmonary functional reserve and standardize the predictive values of pulmonary function in the elderly population. Method : Pulmonary function tests were conducted in 100 men and 100 women over the age of 65. We analyzed changes of FVC and $FEV_1$ according to age and height by linear regression. We compared our new multiple linear regression equation with other equations currently used in Korea. Results : In men, the mean age was $71.5{\pm}5.2$(mean${\pm}$SD) years and the mean height was $163.6{\pm}6.2$cm. The mean FVC was $3.42{\pm}0.49{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1, $2.72{\pm}v$. In women, the mean age was $72.0{\pm}5.1$ years and the mean height was $149.1{\pm}5.9$cm. The mean FVC was $2.22{\pm}0.42{\ell}$ and the mean $FEV_1$ $1.83{\pm}0.34{\ell}$. Multiple linear regression equation using age and height as an independent factors was as follows : FVC(${\ell}$)=1.857-0.0356$\times$age(year)+0.02517$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.279), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=1.340-0.02698$\times$age(year)+0.02021$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.255) in men, FVC(${\ell}$) =-0.09765-0.03332$\times$age(year)+0.03164$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.435), $FEV_1(${\ell}$)=-0.l69-0.02469$\times$age(year)+0.02539$\times$height(cm) (p<0.01, $R^2$=0.41) in women. Conclusion : We established prediction regressions for pulmonary functional tests in the elderly Korean population. We also confirmed that currently adopted equations do not exactly anticipate the expected pulmonary functional reserve in the aged person over 65 years old. We suggest that our new equations from this study should be applied to interpret the pulmonary function tests in the elderly population in Korea.

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Summative Evaluation of 1993, 1994 Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation (제 1, 2회 학생 과학 공동탐구 토론대회의 종합적 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Yoon, Hye-Gyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.376-388
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    • 1996
  • The first and the second "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation" was evaluated in this study. This contest was a part of 'Korean Youth Science Festival' held in 1993 and 1994. The evaluation was based on the data collected from the middle school students of final teams, their teachers, a large number of middle school students and college students who were audience of the final competition. Questionnaires, interviews, reports of final teams, and video tape of final competition were used to collect data. The study focussed on three research questions. The first was about the preparation and the research process of students of final teams. The second was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest. The third was whether participating the Contest was useful experience for the students and the teachers of the final teams. The first area, the preparation and the research process of students, were investigated in three aspects. One was the level of cooperation, participation, support and the role of teachers. The second was the information search and experiment, and the third was the report writing. The students of the final teams from both years, had positive opinion about the cooperation, students' active involvement, and support from family and school. Students considered their teachers to be a guide or a counsellor, showing their level of active participation. On the other hand, the interview of 1993 participants showed that there were times that teachers took strong leading role. Therefore one can conclude that students took active roles most of the time while the room for improvement still exists. To search the information they need during the period of the preparation, student visited various places such as libraries, bookstores, universities, and research institutes. Their search was not limited to reading the books, although the books were primary source of information. Students also learned how to organize the information they found and considered leaning of organizing skill useful and fun. Variety of experiments was an important part of preparation and students had positive opinion about it. Understanding related theory was considered most difficult and important, while designing and building proper equipments was considered difficult but not important. This reflects the students' school experience where the equipments were all set in advance and students were asked to confirm the theories presented in the previous class hours. About the reports recording the research process, students recognize the importance and the necessity of the report but had difficulty in writing it. Their reports showed tendency to list everything they did without clear connection to the problem to be solved. Most of the reports did not record the references and some of them confused report writing with story telling. Therefore most of them need training in writing the reports. It is also desirable to describe the process of student learning when theory or mathematics that are beyond the level of middle school curriculum were used because it is part of their investigation. The second area of evaluation was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest, the problems given to students, and the process of student discussion. The format of the Contests, which consisted of four parts, presentation, refutation, debate and review, received good evaluation from students because it made students think more and gave more difficult time but was meaningful and helped to remember longer time according to students. On the other hand, students said the time given to each part of the contest was too short. The problems given to students were short and open ended to stimulate students' imagination and to offer various possible routes to the solution. This type of problem was very unfamiliar and gave a lot of difficulty to students. Student had positive opinion about the research process they experienced but did not recognize the fact that such a process was possible because of the oneness of the task. The level of the problems was rated as too difficult by teachers and college students but as appropriate by the middle school students in audience and participating students. This suggests that it is possible for student to convert the problems to be challengeable and intellectually satisfactory appropriate for their level of understanding even when the problems were difficult for middle school students. During the process of student discussion, a few problems were observed. Some problems were related to the technics of the discussion, such as inappropriate behavior for the role he/she was taking, mismatching answers to the questions. Some problems were related to thinking. For example, students thinking was off balanced toward deductive reasoning, and reasoning based on experimental data was weak. The last area of evaluation was the effect of the Contest. It was measured through the change of the attitude toward science and science classes, and willingness to attend the next Contest. According to the result of the questionnaire, no meaningful change in attitude was observed. However, through the interview several students were observed to have significant positive change in attitude while no student with negative change was observed. Most of the students participated in Contest said they would participate again or recommend their friend to participate. Most of the teachers agreed that the Contest should continue and they would recommend their colleagues or students to participate. As described above, the "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation", which was developed and tried as a new science contest, had positive response from participating students and teachers, and the audience. Two among the list of results especially demonstrated that the goal of the Contest, "active and cooperative science learning experience", was reached. One is the fact that students recognized the experience of cooperation, discussion, information search, variety of experiments to be fun and valuable. The other is the fact that the students recognized the format of the contest consisting of presentation, refutation, discussion and review, required more thinking and was challenging, but was more meaningful. Despite a few problems such as, unfamiliarity with the technics of discussion, weakness in inductive and/or experiment based reasoning, and difficulty in report writing, The Contest demonstrated the possibility of new science learning environment and science contest by offering the chance to challenge open tasks by utilizing student science knowledge and ability to inquire and to discuss rationally and critically with other students.

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Trend of Medical Care Utilization and Medical Expenditure of the Elderly Cohort (노인 코호트의 의료이용 및 입원진료비 변화 추이 -공.교 의료보험 대상자를 대상으로-)

  • Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kang, Pock-Soo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.30 no.2 s.57
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    • pp.437-461
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    • 1997
  • Because of a significant improvement in the economic situation and development of scientific techniques in Korea during the last 30 years, the life expectancy of the Korean people has lengthened considerably and as a result, the number of the elderly has markedly increased. Such an increase of the number of aged population brought about many social, economic, and medical problems which were never seriously considered before. This study was conducted to assess the trend of medical care utilization and medical expenditure of the elderly. The data of each patient in the study were taken from computer database maintained for administrative purpose by the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation. The study population was 132,670 who were 60 years old or more and registered in Korean Medical Insurance Corporation from 1989 to 1993. The study subjects were predominantly female(56.3%) and 10,000-20,000 Won premium group(50.6%). The following are summaries of findings : The total increase of the number of inpatient cases was 40.5% from 1989 through 1993. The average annual increase was 3.7% in inpatient medical expenditures per case, 4.4% in inpatient medical expenditures per day and 0.08% in length of stay per case from 1989 through 1993. Cataract was the most prevalent disease of 10 leading frequent diseases in all ages from 1989 through 1993. The case mix in 1993 compared to 1989 revealed that cataract and ischemic cerebral disease were increased whereas essential hypertension and pulmonary tuberculosis were decreased . The average annual increase of medical expenditures was 3.8% in general hospitals, 6.3% in hospitals and 2.4% in clinics. From 1989 through 1993, medical expenditures used by high-cost patients accounted for about 14% to 20% of all expenditures for inpatient care, while they represented less than 2.5% of the elderly population. Time series analysis revealed that total medical expenditures and doctor's fee for inpatient will be progressively increased whereas drug expenditures for inpatient will be decreased. And there will be no change in length of stay. Based on the above results, the factors increasing medical cost and utilization should be identified and the method of cost containment for the elderly health care should be developed systematically.

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Difference of Short Term Survival in Patients with ARDS According to Responsiveness to Alveolar Recruitment (급성호흡곤란증후군 환자에서 폐포모집술의 반응에 따른 초기 예후의 차이)

  • Kim, Ho Cheol;Cho, Dae Hyun;Kang, Gyoung Woo;Park, Dong Jun;Lee, Jong Deok;Hwang, Young Sil
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.280-288
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    • 2004
  • Background : Lung protective strategies, using low tidal volume in ARDS, improve survival rate in ARDS. However, low tidal volume ventilation may promote alveolar de-recruitment. Therefore, alveolar recruitment is necessary to maintain arterial oxygenation and to prevent repetitive opening and closure of collapsed alveoli in lung protective strategies. There has been a recent report describing improvement in arterial oxygenation with use of recruitment maneuver. However, impact of recruitment on outcome of ARDS is unknown. We evaluated whether short-term survival difference existed in patients with ARDS, who were performed alveolar recruitment maneuver(ARM) and prone position, according to response of alveolar recruitment or not. Methods : All patients who were diagnosed with ADRS and received mechanical ventilation were included. ARM were sustained inflation($35-45cmH_2O$ CPAP for 30-40 sec.) or increasing level of PEEP. If these methods were ineffective, alveolar recruitment with prone position was done for at least 10 hours. $P_aO_2/FiO_2$(P/F) ratio was determined before and at 0.5 and 2 hours after ARM. We defined a responder if the P/F ratio was increased over 50% of baseline value. We compared 10-days and 30-days survival rate between responders and non-responders. Results : 20 patients(M:F=12:8, $63{\pm}14age$) were included. Among them, 12 patients were responders and 8 patients were non-responders. In responders, P/F ratio was increased from $92{\pm}25mmHg$ to $244{\pm}85mmHg$. In non-responders, P/F ratio increased from $138{\pm}37mmHg$ to $163{\pm}60mmHg$. Among non-responders, P/F ratio was improved over 50% in 2 patients after prone position. Overall, 14 patients were responders after ARM and prone position. The 10-days and 30-days survival rate in responders was significantly higher than in non-responders(86%, 57% in responders and 33%, 0% in non-responders)(p<0.05). There was no significant difference between responders and non-responders in age($71{\pm}11$, $60{\pm}14$), lung injury score($2.8{\pm}0.2$, $2.9{\pm}0.45$), simplified acute physiology score(SAPS) II ($35{\pm}4.6$, $34{\pm}5.7$), positive end-positive pressure level($15.6{\pm}1.9cmH_2O$, $14.5{\pm}2.1cmH_2O$). Conclusion : ARM may improve arterial oxygenation in some patients with ARDS. These responders in patients with ARDS showed significant higher 10-days and 30-days survival rate than non-responders patients with alveolar recruitment.

Prediction of Salvaged Myocardium in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Angioplasty using early Thallium-201 Redistribution Myocardial Perfusion Imaging (급성심근경색증의 일차적 관동맥성형술 후 조기 Tl-201 재분포영상을 이용한 구조심근 예측)

  • Choi, Joon-Young;Yang, You-Jung;Choi, Seung-Jin;Yeo, Jeong-Seok;Park, Seong-Wook;Song, Jae-Kwan;Moon, Dae-Hyuk
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.219-228
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: The amount of salvaged myocardium is an important prognostic factor in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). We investigated if early Tl-201 SPECT imaging could be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery in acute MI after primary PTCA. Materials and Methods: In 36 patients with first acute MI treated with primary PTCA, serial echocardiography and Tl-201 SPECT imaging ($5.8{\pm}2.1$ days after PTDA) were performed. Regional wall motion and perfusion were quantified with on 16-segment myocardial model with 5-point and 4-point scaling system, respectively. Results: Wall motion was improved in 78 of the 212 dyssynergic segments on 1 month follow-up echocardiography and 97 on 7 months follow-up echocardiography, which were proved to be salvaged myocardium. The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves of Tl-201 perfusion score for detecting salvaged myocardial segments were 0.79 for 1 month follow-up and 0.83 for 7 months follow-up. The sensitivity and specificity of Tl-201 redistribution images with optimum cutoff of 40% of peak thallium activity for detecting salvaged myocardium were 84.6% and 55.2% for 1 month follow-up, and 87.6% and 64.3% for 7 months follow-up, respectively. There was a linear relationship between the percentage of peak thallium activity on early redistribution imaging and the likelihood of segmental functional improvement 7 months after reperfusion. Conclusion: Tl-201 myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging performed early within 10 days after reperfusion can be used to predict the salvaged myocardium and functional recovery with high sensitivity during the 7 months following primary PTCA in patients with acute MI.

A Study on Aviation Safety and Third Country Operator of EU Regulation in light of the Convention on international Civil Aviation (시카고협약체계에서의 EU의 항공법규체계 연구 - TCO 규정을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Koo-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.67-95
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    • 2014
  • Some Contracting States of the Chicago Convention issue FAOC(Foreign Air Operator Certificate) and conduct various safety assessments for the safety of the foreign operators which operate to their state. These FAOC and safety audits on the foreign operators are being expanded to other parts of the world. While this trend is the strengthening measure of aviation safety resulting in the reduction of aircraft accident. FAOC also burdens the other contracting States to the Chicago Convention due to additional requirements and late permission. EASA(European Aviation Safety Agency) is a body governed by European Basic Regulation. EASA was set up in 2003 and conduct specific regulatory and executive tasks in the field of civil aviation safety and environmental protection. EASA's mission is to promote the highest common standards of safety and environmental protection in civil aviation. The task of the EASA has been expanded from airworthiness to air operations and currently includes the rulemaking and standardization of airworthiness, air crew, air operations, TCO, ATM/ANS safety oversight, aerodromes, etc. According to Implementing Rule, Commission Regulation(EU) No 452/2014, EASA has the mandate to issue safety authorizations to commercial air carriers from outside the EU as from 26 May 2014. Third country operators (TCO) flying to any of the 28 EU Member States and/or to 4 EFTA States (Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Switzerland) must apply to EASA for a so called TCO authorization. EASA will only take over the safety-related part of foreign operator assessment. Operating permits will continue to be issued by the national authorities. A 30-month transition period ensures smooth implementation without interrupting international air operations of foreign air carriers to the EU/EASA. Operators who are currently flying to Europe can continue to do so, but must submit an application for a TCO authorization before 26 November 2014. After the transition period, which lasts until 26 November 2016, a valid TCO authorization will be a mandatory prerequisite, in the absence of which an operating permit cannot be issued by a Member State. The European TCO authorization regime does not differentiate between scheduled and non-scheduled commercial air transport operations in principle. All TCO with commercial air transport need to apply for a TCO authorization. Operators with a potential need of operating to the EU at some time in the near future are advised to apply for a TCO authorization in due course, even when the date of operations is unknown. For all the issue mentioned above, I have studied the function of EASA and EU Regulation including TCO Implementing Rule newly introduced, and suggested some proposals. I hope that this paper is 1) to help preparation of TCO authorization, 2) to help understanding about the international issue, 3) to help the improvement of korean aviation regulations and government organizations, 4) to help compliance with international standards and to contribute to the promotion of aviation safety, in addition.

A Mobile Landmarks Guide : Outdoor Augmented Reality based on LOD and Contextual Device (모바일 랜드마크 가이드 : LOD와 문맥적 장치 기반의 실외 증강현실)

  • Zhao, Bi-Cheng;Rosli, Ahmad Nurzid;Jang, Chol-Hee;Lee, Kee-Sung;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, mobile phone has experienced an extremely fast evolution. It is equipped with high-quality color displays, high resolution cameras, and real-time accelerated 3D graphics. In addition, some other features are includes GPS sensor and Digital Compass, etc. This evolution advent significantly helps the application developers to use the power of smart-phones, to create a rich environment that offers a wide range of services and exciting possibilities. To date mobile AR in outdoor research there are many popular location-based AR services, such Layar and Wikitude. These systems have big limitation the AR contents hardly overlaid on the real target. Another research is context-based AR services using image recognition and tracking. The AR contents are precisely overlaid on the real target. But the real-time performance is restricted by the retrieval time and hardly implement in large scale area. In our work, we exploit to combine advantages of location-based AR with context-based AR. The system can easily find out surrounding landmarks first and then do the recognition and tracking with them. The proposed system mainly consists of two major parts-landmark browsing module and annotation module. In landmark browsing module, user can view an augmented virtual information (information media), such as text, picture and video on their smart-phone viewfinder, when they pointing out their smart-phone to a certain building or landmark. For this, landmark recognition technique is applied in this work. SURF point-based features are used in the matching process due to their robustness. To ensure the image retrieval and matching processes is fast enough for real time tracking, we exploit the contextual device (GPS and digital compass) information. This is necessary to select the nearest and pointed orientation landmarks from the database. The queried image is only matched with this selected data. Therefore, the speed for matching will be significantly increased. Secondly is the annotation module. Instead of viewing only the augmented information media, user can create virtual annotation based on linked data. Having to know a full knowledge about the landmark, are not necessary required. They can simply look for the appropriate topic by searching it with a keyword in linked data. With this, it helps the system to find out target URI in order to generate correct AR contents. On the other hand, in order to recognize target landmarks, images of selected building or landmark are captured from different angle and distance. This procedure looks like a similar processing of building a connection between the real building and the virtual information existed in the Linked Open Data. In our experiments, search range in the database is reduced by clustering images into groups according to their coordinates. A Grid-base clustering method and user location information are used to restrict the retrieval range. Comparing the existed research using cluster and GPS information the retrieval time is around 70~80ms. Experiment results show our approach the retrieval time reduces to around 18~20ms in average. Therefore the totally processing time is reduced from 490~540ms to 438~480ms. The performance improvement will be more obvious when the database growing. It demonstrates the proposed system is efficient and robust in many cases.

Development of Intelligent Job Classification System based on Job Posting on Job Sites (구인구직사이트의 구인정보 기반 지능형 직무분류체계의 구축)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The job classification system of major job sites differs from site to site and is different from the job classification system of the 'SQF(Sectoral Qualifications Framework)' proposed by the SW field. Therefore, a new job classification system is needed for SW companies, SW job seekers, and job sites to understand. The purpose of this study is to establish a standard job classification system that reflects market demand by analyzing SQF based on job offer information of major job sites and the NCS(National Competency Standards). For this purpose, the association analysis between occupations of major job sites is conducted and the association rule between SQF and occupation is conducted to derive the association rule between occupations. Using this association rule, we proposed an intelligent job classification system based on data mapping the job classification system of major job sites and SQF and job classification system. First, major job sites are selected to obtain information on the job classification system of the SW market. Then We identify ways to collect job information from each site and collect data through open API. Focusing on the relationship between the data, filtering only the job information posted on each job site at the same time, other job information is deleted. Next, we will map the job classification system between job sites using the association rules derived from the association analysis. We will complete the mapping between these market segments, discuss with the experts, further map the SQF, and finally propose a new job classification system. As a result, more than 30,000 job listings were collected in XML format using open API in 'WORKNET,' 'JOBKOREA,' and 'saramin', which are the main job sites in Korea. After filtering out about 900 job postings simultaneously posted on multiple job sites, 800 association rules were derived by applying the Apriori algorithm, which is a frequent pattern mining. Based on 800 related rules, the job classification system of WORKNET, JOBKOREA, and saramin and the SQF job classification system were mapped and classified into 1st and 4th stages. In the new job taxonomy, the first primary class, IT consulting, computer system, network, and security related job system, consisted of three secondary classifications, five tertiary classifications, and five fourth classifications. The second primary classification, the database and the job system related to system operation, consisted of three secondary classifications, three tertiary classifications, and four fourth classifications. The third primary category, Web Planning, Web Programming, Web Design, and Game, was composed of four secondary classifications, nine tertiary classifications, and two fourth classifications. The last primary classification, job systems related to ICT management, computer and communication engineering technology, consisted of three secondary classifications and six tertiary classifications. In particular, the new job classification system has a relatively flexible stage of classification, unlike other existing classification systems. WORKNET divides jobs into third categories, JOBKOREA divides jobs into second categories, and the subdivided jobs into keywords. saramin divided the job into the second classification, and the subdivided the job into keyword form. The newly proposed standard job classification system accepts some keyword-based jobs, and treats some product names as jobs. In the classification system, not only are jobs suspended in the second classification, but there are also jobs that are subdivided into the fourth classification. This reflected the idea that not all jobs could be broken down into the same steps. We also proposed a combination of rules and experts' opinions from market data collected and conducted associative analysis. Therefore, the newly proposed job classification system can be regarded as a data-based intelligent job classification system that reflects the market demand, unlike the existing job classification system. This study is meaningful in that it suggests a new job classification system that reflects market demand by attempting mapping between occupations based on data through the association analysis between occupations rather than intuition of some experts. However, this study has a limitation in that it cannot fully reflect the market demand that changes over time because the data collection point is temporary. As market demands change over time, including seasonal factors and major corporate public recruitment timings, continuous data monitoring and repeated experiments are needed to achieve more accurate matching. The results of this study can be used to suggest the direction of improvement of SQF in the SW industry in the future, and it is expected to be transferred to other industries with the experience of success in the SW industry.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Investigation on a Way to Maximize the Productivity in Poultry Industry (양계산업에 있어서 생산성 향상방안에 대한 조사 연구)

  • 오세정
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.105-127
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    • 1989
  • Although poultry industry in Japan has been much developed in recent years, it still needs to be developed , compared with developed countries. Since the poultry market in Korea is expected to be opened in the near future it is necessary to maximize the Productivity to reduce the production costs and to develop the scientific, technologies and management organization systems for the improvement of the quality in poultry production. Followings ale the summary of poultry industry in Japan. 1. Poultry industry in Japan is almost specized and commercialized and its management system is : integrated, cooperative and developed to industrialized intensive style. Therefore, they have competitive power in the international poultry markets. 2. Average egg weight is 48-50g per day (Max. 54g) and feed requirement is 2. 1-2. 3. 3. The management organization system is specialized and farmers in small scale form complex and farmers in large scale are integrated.

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