• Title/Summary/Keyword: Improve The Efficiency

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Quality standard of Pleurotus eryngii for production of customized-type and high quality mushroom (소비자 맞춤형 고품질 큰느타리버섯 생산을 위한 품질관리 기준)

  • Lee, Chan-Jung;Yoo, Young-Mi;Han, Ju-Yeon;Cheong, Jong-Chun;Jhune, Chang-Sung;Moon, Ji-Won;Kong, Won-Sik;Suh, Jang-Sun
    • Journal of Mushroom
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to provide standardization for mushroom production of high quality at farmhouse. The standardization does much to improve merchantable quality, distribution efficiency and fair dealings by shipping of the standard agricultural products. Therefore, modification of these standards is required to fit farmhouse situations. The standardization for production of Pleurotus eryngii of high quality follows like this. A grades were above 90 g at average weight, more 50 mm at stipe thick, 1.6~1.7 at stipe length/stipe thick rate and 1.1~1.2 at pileus diameter/stipe thick ratio. B grades were more 45 g at average weight, above 40 mm at stipe thick, 1.8~1.9 at stipe length/stipe thick ratio and 1.2~1.4 at pileus diameter/stipe thick ratio.

A Study on the Improvement of Treatment Efficiency for Nitrogen and Phosphorus in Livestock Treatment System Using Constructed Wetlands (인공습지 축산폐수처리시스템에서 질소 및 인 처리효율 향상 방안)

  • Seo, Dong-Cheol;Park, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Ah-Reum;Kim, Sung-Hun;Lee, Seong-Tea;Jeong, Tae-Uk;Choi, Jeong-Ho;Lee, Sang-Won;Kim, Hyun-Ook;Cho, Ju-Sik;Heo, Jong-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.434-441
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    • 2011
  • To improve T-N and T-P removal efficiencies, removal efficiencies of pollutants in full-scale livestock wastewater treatment plant by natural purification method with water plant filtration and activated sludge beds were investigated under different re-injection rates and injection methods of livestock wastewater. The removal rates of COD, SS, T-N, and T-P in effluent in full-scale livestock wastewater treatment plant were in the order of 30% < 70% ${\leq}$ 100 % at different re-injection rates. The removal rates of pollutants in effluent in full-scale livestock wastewater treatment plant were higher as re-injection rate of livestock wastewater increased. Removal rates of COD, SS, T-N, and T-P by continuous injection were slightly higher than those by intermittent injection method in full-scale livestock wastewater treatment plant. Removal rates of COD, SS, T-N, and T-P by continuous injection method in full-scale livestock wastewater treatment plant with water plant filtration and activated sludge beds were 99.5, 99.8, 99.0 and 99.8%, respectively.

Effect of Coolant on PEMFC Performance in Low Humidification Condition (저가습 조건에서 냉각 유체의 고분자전해질 연료전지에 대한 영향)

  • Lee, Hung-Joo;Song, Hyun-Do;Kwon, Jun-Taek;Kim, Jun-Bom
    • Journal of the Korean Electrochemical Society
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2007
  • Proton exchange membrane fuel cell(PEMFC) performance could be affected by various factors such as cell temperature, total pressure, partial pressure of reactants and relative humidity. Hydrogen ion is combined with water to form hydronium ion [$H_3O^+$] and pass through membrane resulting electricity generation. Cooling system is needed to remove heat and other uses on large scale fuel cell. In case that collant conductivity is increased, fuel cell performance could be decreased because produced electricity could be leaked through coolant. In this study, triple distilled water(TDW) and antifreeze solution containing ethylene glycol was used to observe resistance change. Resistance of TDW was taken 28 days to reach preset value, and effect on fuel cell operation was not observed. Resistance of antifreeze solution was not reached to preset value up to 48 days, but performance failure occurred presumably caused by bipolar plate junction resulting stoppage resistance experiment. Generally PEMFC humidification is performed near-saturated operating conditions at various temperatures and pressures, but non-humidifying condition could be applied in small scale fuel cell to improve efficiency and reduce system cost. However, it was difficult to operate large scale fuel cell without humidifying, especially higher than $50{\sim}60^{\circ}C$. In case of small flux such as 0.78 L/min, temperature difference between inlet and outlet was occurred larger than other cases resulting performance decrease. Non-humidifying performance experiments were done at various cell temperature. When both of anode and cathode humidification were removed, cell performance was strongly depended on cell operating temperature.

Shopping Value, Shopping Goal and WOM - Focused on Electronic-goods Buyers (쇼핑 가치 추구 성향에 따른 쇼핑 목표와 공유 의도 차이에 관한 연구 - 전자제품 구매고객을 중심으로)

  • Park, Kyoung-Won;Park, Ju-Young
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.68-79
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    • 2009
  • The interplay between hedonic and utilitarian attributes has assumed special significance in recent years; it has been proposed that consumption offerings should be viewed as experiences that stimulate both cognitions and feelings rather than as mere products or services. This research builds on previous work on hedonic versus utilitarian benefits, regulatory focus theory, customer satisfaction to address two question: (1) Is the shopping goal at the point of purchase different from the shopping value? and (2) Is the customer loyalty after the use different from the shopping value and shopping goal? We surveyed 345 peoples those who have bought the electronic-goods within 6 months. This research dealt with the shopping value which is consisted of 2 types, hedonic and utilitarian. Those who pursue the hedonic shopping value may prefer the pleasure of purchasing experience to the product itself. They tend to prefer atmosphere, arousal of the shopping experience. Consistent with previous research, we use the term "hedonic" to refer to their aesthetic, experiential and enjoyment-related value. On the contrary, Those who pursue the utilitarian shopping value may prefer the reasonable buying. It may be more functional. Consistent with previous research, we use the term "utilitarian" to refer to the functional, instrumental, and practical value of consumption offerings. Holbrook(1999) notes that consumer value is an experience that results from the consumption of such benefits. In the context of cell phones for example, the phone's battery life and sound volume are utilitarian benefits, whereas aesthetic appeal from its shape and color are hedonic benefits. Likewise, in the case of a car, fuel economics and safety are utilitarian benefits whereas the sunroof and the luxurious interior are hedonic benefits. The shopping goals are consisted of the promotion focus goal and the prevention focus goal, based on the self-regulatory focus theory. The promotion focus is characterized into focusing ideal self because they are oriented to wishes and vision. The promotion focused individuals are tend to be more risk taking. They are more sensitive to hope and achievement. On the contrary, the prevention focused individuals are characterized into focusing the responsibilities because they are oriented to safety. The prevention focused individuals are tend to be more risk avoiding. We wanted to test the relation among the shopping value, shopping goal and customer loyalty. Customers show the positive or negative feelings comparing with the expectation level which customers have at the point of the purchase. If the result were bigger than the expectation, customers may feel positive feeling such as delight or satisfaction and they would want to share their feelings with other people. And they want to buy those products again in the future time. There is converging evidence that the types of goals consumers expect to be fulfilled by the utilitarian dimension of a product are different from those they seek from the hedonic dimension (Chernev 2004). Specifically, whereas consumers expect the fulfillment of product prevention goals on the utilitarian dimension, they expect the fulfillment of promotion goals on the hedonic dimension (Chernev 2004; Chitturi, Raghunathan, and Majahan 2007; Higgins 1997, 2001) According to the regulatory focus theory, prevention goals are those that ought to be met. Fulfillment of prevention goals in the context of product consumption eliminates or significantly reduces the probability of a painful experience, thus making consumers experience emotions that result from fulfillment of prevention goals such as confidence and securities. On the contrary, fulfillment of promotion goals are those that a person aspires to meet, such as "looking cool" or "being sophisticated." Fulfillment of promotion goals in the context of product consumption significantly increases the probability of a pleasurable experience, thus enabling consumers to experience emotions that result from the fulfillment of promotion goals. The proposed conceptual framework captures that the relationships among hedonic versus utilitarian shopping values and promotion versus prevention shopping goals respectively. An analysis of the consequence of the fulfillment and frustration of utilitarian and hedonic value is theoretically worthwhile. It is also substantively relevant because it helps predict post-consumption behavior such as the promotion versus prevention shopping goals orientation. Because our primary goal is to understand how the post consumption feelings influence the variable customer loyalty: word of mouth (Jacoby and Chestnut 1978). This research result is that the utilitarian shopping value gives the positive influence to both of the promotion and prevention goal. However the influence to the prevention goal is stronger. On the contrary, hedonic shopping value gives influence to the promotion focus goal only. Additionally, both of the promotion and prevention goal show the positive relation with customer loyalty. However, the positive relation with promotion goal and customer loyalty is much stronger. The promotion focus goal gives the influence to the customer loyalty. On the contrary, the prevention focus goal relates at the low level of relation with customer loyalty than that of the promotion goal. It could be explained that it is apt to get framed the compliment of people into 'gain-non gain' situation. As the result, for those who have the promotion focus are motivated to deliver their own feeling to other people eagerly. Conversely the prevention focused individual are more sensitive to the 'loss-non loss' situation. The research result is consistent with pre-existent researches. There is a conceptual parallel between necessities-needs-utilitarian benefits and luxuries-wants-hedonic benefits (Chernev 2004; Chitturi, Raghunathan and Majaha 2007; Higginns 1997; Kivetz and Simonson 2002b). In addition, Maslow's hierarchy of needs and the precedence principle contends luxuries-wants-hedonic benefits higher than necessities-needs-utilitarian benefits. Chitturi, Raghunathan and Majaha (2007) show that consumers are focused more on the utilitarian benefits than on the hedonic benefits of a product until their minimum expectation of fulfilling prevention goals are met. Furthermore, a utilitarian benefit is a promise of a certain level of functionality by the manufacturer or the retailer. When the promise is not fulfilled, customers blame the retailer and/or the manufacturer. When negative feelings are attributable to an entity, customers feel angry. However in the case of hedonic benefit, the customer, not the manufacturer, determines at the time of purchase whether the product is stylish and attractive. Under such circumstances, customers are more likely to blame themselves than the manufacturer if their friends do not find the product stylish and attractive. Therefore, not meeting minimum utilitarian expectations of functionality generates a much more intense negative feelings, such as anger than a less intense feeling such as disappointment or dissatisfactions. The additional multi group analysis of this research shows the same result. Those who are unsatisfactory customers who have the prevention focused goal shows higher relation with WOM, comparing with satisfactory customers. The research findings in this article could have significant implication for the personal selling fields to increase the effectiveness and the efficiency of the sales such that they can develop the sales presentation strategy for the customers. For those who are the hedonic customers may be apt to show more interest to the promotion goal. Therefore it may work to strengthen the design, style or new technology of the products to the hedonic customers. On the contrary for the utilitarian customers, it may work to strengthen the price competitiveness. On the basis of the result from our studies, we demonstrated a correspondence among hedonic versus utilitarian and promotion versus prevention goal, WOM. Similarly, we also found evidence of the moderator effects of satisfaction after use, between the prevention goal and WOM. Even though the prevention goal has the low level of relation to WOM, those who are not satisfied show higher relation to WOM. The relation between the prevention goal and WOM is significantly different according to the satisfaction versus unsatisfaction. In addition, improving the promotion emotions of cheerfulness and excitement and the prevention emotion of confidence and security will further improve customer loyalty. A related potential further research could be to examine whether hedonic versus utilitarian, promotion versus prevention goals improve customer loyalty for services as well. Under the budget and time constraints, designers and managers are often compelling to choose among various attributes. If there is no budget or time constraints, perhaps the best solution is to maximize both hedonic and utilitarian dimension of benefits. However, they have to make trad-off process between various attributes. For the designers and managers have to keep in mind that without hedonic benefit satisfaction of the product it may hard to lead the customers to the customer loyalty.

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A study on the factors to affect the career success among workers with disabilities (지체장애근로자의 직업성공 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dal-Yob
    • 한국사회복지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.185-216
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    • 2003
  • This study was aimed at investigating important factors influencing career success among regular workers. The current researcher scrutinized the degree to which variables and factors affect the career success and occupational turnover rates of the research participants. At the same tune, two hypothetical path models established by the researcher were examined using linear multiple regression methods and the LISREL. After examining the differences among the factors of career success, a comparison was made between the disabled worker group and the non-disabled worker group. A questionnaire using the 5-point Likert scale was distributed to a group of 374 workers with disabilities and 463 workers without disabilities. For the data analysis purpose, the structural equation model, factor analysis, correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis were carried out. The results of this study ran be summarized as follows. First, the results of factor analysis showed important categories of conceptual themes of career success. The initial conceptual factor model did not accord with the empirical one. A three-factorial model revealed categories of personal, family, and organizational factor respectively. The personal factor was composed of the self-esteem and self-efficiency. The family factor was consisted of the multi-roles stress and the number of children. Finally, the organizational factor was composed of the capacity for utilizing resources, networking, and the frequency of mentoring. In addition, the total 10 sub areas of career success were divided by two important aspects; the subjective career success and the objective career success. Second, both research participant groups seemed to be influenced by their occupational types. However, all predictive variables excluding the wage rate and the average length of work years had significant impact on job success for the disabled work group, while all the variables excluding the frequency of advice and length of working years had significant impact on job success for the non-disabled worker group. Third, the turnover rate was significantly influenced by the age and the experience of turnover of the research participants. However, the number of co-workers was the strongest predictive variable for the worker group with disabilities, but the occupation choice variable for the worker group without disabilities. For the disabled worker group, the turnover rate was differently influenced by the type of occupation, the length of working years, while multi-role stress and the average working years at the time of turnover for the worker group without disabilities. Fifth, as a result of verifying the hypothetical path model, it showed that the first model was somewhat proper and could predict the career success on both research participant groups. In the second model, the Chi-square, the degree of freedom (($x^2=64.950$, df=61, P=0.341), and the adjusted Goodness of Fit Index (AGFI) were .964, and the Comparative Fit Index (CFI) were .997, and the Root Mean Squared Residual (RMR) was respectively. .038. The model was best fitted and could predict the career success more highly because the goodness of fit index in the whole models was within the allowed range. In conclusion, the following research implications can be suggested. First, the occupational type of research participants was one of the most important variables to predict the career success for both research participant groups. It means that people with disabilities require human development services including education. They need to improve themselves in this knowledge-based society. Furthermore, for maintaining the career success, people with disabilities should be approached by considering the subjective career success aspects including wages and the promotion opportunities than the objective career success aspects.

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A Study of the Health Service Computerization State and the Occupational Nurses's Satisfaction Level on Computerization (산업간호현장의 보건업무 전산화시스템 활용현황과 산업간호사의 전산화 직무만족도 연구)

  • Jung, Hee Young;Park, Hyoung-Sook
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.5-18
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    • 2004
  • This study aims to investigate the use state of the health service computerization system in the occupational nursing field and the occupational nursers' satisfaction level, and provide basic data to promote the development of the health service computerization system for the nursing field. For this study, a questionnaire was provided to 118 occupational nurses who belong to Busan and Gyeongnam branches of KAOHN(Korean Association of Occupational Health Nurses) for 2 months (from Dec. 1, 2002 to Jan. 31, 2003). A tool of Choi Yong-Heui(2000) was used to investigate the satisfaction level of using the health service computerization system. The collected materials were analyzed in real number and percentage, average and standard deviation, t-test and ANOVA by using the SPSS WIN 10.0 program. This study is summarized as follows: 1. The average age was $31.99{\pm}5.58$ old in this study. The married were 54.2%. Participants who graduated from a junior college was 76.9%. The average service period was $4.48{\pm}4.68$ years. In service types, 79.7% of participants served in a health care center. The average service period was $3.22{\pm}2.89$ years. The service place which had 1000 workers or more was 35.6%. 2. Only 20.3% of participants in this study had a computer use education. 3. The field who participants used mostly was communication/internet, $3.29{\pm}.85$ hours in average. 4. 97.1% of occupational fields had computers and peripheral devices: 71.4% in pentium computer, 42.8% in the hard disk capacity of 20-29GB, 60.0% in 15 inch monitors, 86.2% in printers, 18.1% in digital cameras, 12.4% in LAN, and 9.5% in scanners. 80.1% of the occupational fields which were objects of study could use communication. 5. The occupational fields which did not introduced the health service computerization system were 62.8%. The main cause was attributable to entrepreneurs' insufficient recognition 66.6%. 51.5% of the entrepreneurs did not have an introduction plan. 37.2% of participating companies had the health service computerization system. 56.4% of them introduced it since the year 2000. 81.6% of the introduction motivation aimed to the efficiency of health service. The most issue upon introduction was insufficient understanding of a person in charge - 25.6%. The in-house development of the system covered 56.4%. 61.5% of the participants accepted their demands from the first stage of development. The direct effect of computerization showed the increase of 25.9% in the quickness and continuity of service treatment, and 25.9% in the serviceability of statistical treatment. 6. 22.0% of the participants had a computerization system use education. 69.2% of them had a in-house education. An educational method by nurses who used the computerization system was 76.9%. 92.3% of the education was helpful for practical duties. 7. An analysis of the computer use by health service fields showed that the medicine management in a health management field was 15.9%. the work environment measuring management in a work environment filed was 32.9%. the employment. general and special examination management in a heal th management field was 61.1 %. the various reports management in an administrative field was 64%. the health education data preparation management in an educational field was 58.0%. and the medicine and expendables management in an equipment management field was 51.6%. An analysis of the computerization system use showed that the various statistical data manage in a health management field was 13.0%. the work environment measuring management in a health management field was 34.8%. the personal disease management in a health management field was 51.9%. the heal education data preparation management in an educational field was 54.5%. and the equipment management of health care centers in an equipment management field was 52.6%. 8. 31.6% of the participants wanted that health service computerization system would include the generals of health services. 42.4% of the participants thought that first of all. the aggressive interest and investment of employers were required to build the health service computerization system. 9. The participants' satisfaction level on the computerization system use was $3.51{\pm}.57$ points. An analysis by each factor showed $3.62{\pm}.68$ points in a service change factor. $3.15{\pm}.63$ points in a computer program use factor, and $3.45{\pm}.71$ points in a continuous computerization use factor. 10. An analysis of the computerization system use by general characteristics of participants showed that the married (p = .022) had the satisfaction level higher than the unmarried. 11. The satisfaction level of the computerization system use by participants' computer use ability tended to be higher in proportion to the increase of computer use abilities in spreadsheet (F=2.606. p=.048). presentation (F=3.62. p=.012) and communication/internet(F=2.885. p=.0321. Based on the study results mentioned above. I will suggest as follows : The nationwide enlargement and repetition study is required for occupational nurses who serve in occupational nursing fields. The computerization system in a health service field is inferior comparing with other fields. The computerization system standard by business types and characteristics should be prepared through employers's aggressive participation and national support. Therefore various statistical data which occurs in occupational fields will be managed systematically and efficiently. A regular and systematic computer education plan for occupational nurses in charge of health services in the filed is urgently required to efficiently manage and improve the health of on-site workers.

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Measuring the Public Service Quality Using Process Mining: Focusing on N City's Building Licensing Complaint Service (프로세스 마이닝을 이용한 공공서비스의 품질 측정: N시의 건축 인허가 민원 서비스를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Jung Seung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.35-52
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    • 2019
  • As public services are provided in various forms, including e-government, the level of public demand for public service quality is increasing. Although continuous measurement and improvement of the quality of public services is needed to improve the quality of public services, traditional surveys are costly and time-consuming and have limitations. Therefore, there is a need for an analytical technique that can measure the quality of public services quickly and accurately at any time based on the data generated from public services. In this study, we analyzed the quality of public services based on data using process mining techniques for civil licensing services in N city. It is because the N city's building license complaint service can secure data necessary for analysis and can be spread to other institutions through public service quality management. This study conducted process mining on a total of 3678 building license complaint services in N city for two years from January 2014, and identified process maps and departments with high frequency and long processing time. According to the analysis results, there was a case where a department was crowded or relatively few at a certain point in time. In addition, there was a reasonable doubt that the increase in the number of complaints would increase the time required to complete the complaints. According to the analysis results, the time required to complete the complaint was varied from the same day to a year and 146 days. The cumulative frequency of the top four departments of the Sewage Treatment Division, the Waterworks Division, the Urban Design Division, and the Green Growth Division exceeded 50% and the cumulative frequency of the top nine departments exceeded 70%. Higher departments were limited and there was a great deal of unbalanced load among departments. Most complaint services have a variety of different patterns of processes. Research shows that the number of 'complementary' decisions has the greatest impact on the length of a complaint. This is interpreted as a lengthy period until the completion of the entire complaint is required because the 'complement' decision requires a physical period in which the complainant supplements and submits the documents again. In order to solve these problems, it is possible to drastically reduce the overall processing time of the complaints by preparing thoroughly before the filing of the complaints or in the preparation of the complaints, or the 'complementary' decision of other complaints. By clarifying and disclosing the cause and solution of one of the important data in the system, it helps the complainant to prepare in advance and convinces that the documents prepared by the public information will be passed. The transparency of complaints can be sufficiently predictable. Documents prepared by pre-disclosed information are likely to be processed without problems, which not only shortens the processing period but also improves work efficiency by eliminating the need for renegotiation or multiple tasks from the point of view of the processor. The results of this study can be used to find departments with high burdens of civil complaints at certain points of time and to flexibly manage the workforce allocation between departments. In addition, as a result of analyzing the pattern of the departments participating in the consultation by the characteristics of the complaints, it is possible to use it for automation or recommendation when requesting the consultation department. In addition, by using various data generated during the complaint process and using machine learning techniques, the pattern of the complaint process can be found. It can be used for automation / intelligence of civil complaint processing by making this algorithm and applying it to the system. This study is expected to be used to suggest future public service quality improvement through process mining analysis on civil service.

The Effect of PET/CT Images on SUV with the Correction of CT Image by Using Contrast Media (PET/CT 영상에서 조영제를 이용한 CT 영상의 보정(Correction)에 따른 표준화섭취계수(SUV)의 영향)

  • Ahn, Sha-Ron;Park, Hoon-Hee;Park, Min-Soo;Lee, Seung-Jae;Oh, Shin-Hyun;Lim, Han-Sang;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The PET of the PET/CT (Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography) quantitatively shows the biological and chemical information of the body, but has limitation of presenting the clear anatomic structure. Thus combining the PET with CT, it is not only possible to offer the higher resolution but also effectively shorten the scanning time and reduce the noises by using CT data in attenuation correction. And because, at the CT scanning, the contrast media makes it easy to determine a exact range of the lesion and distinguish the normal organs, there is a certain increase in the use of it. However, in the case of using the contrast media, it affects semi-quantitative measures of the PET/CT images. In this study, therefore, we will be to establish the reliability of the SUV (Standardized Uptake Value) with CT data correction so that it can help more accurate diagnosis. Materials and Methods: In this experiment, a total of 30 people are targeted - age range: from 27 to 72, average age : 49.6 - and DSTe (General Electric Healthcare, Milwaukee, MI, USA) is used for equipment. $^{18}F$- FDG 370~555 MBq is injected into the subjects depending on their weight and, after about 60 minutes of their stable position, a whole-body scan is taken. The CT scan is set to 140 kV and 210 mA, and the injected amount of the contrast media is 2 cc per 1 kg of the patients' weight. With the raw data from the scan, we obtain a image showing the effect of the contrast media through the attenuation correction by both of the corrected and uncorrected CT data. Then we mark out ROI (Region of Interest) in each area to measure SUV and analyze the difference. Results: According to the analysis, the SUV is decreased in the liver and heart which have more bloodstream than the others, because of the contrast media correction. On the other hand, there is no difference in the lungs. Conclusions: Whereas the CT scan images with the contrast media from the PET/CT increase the contrast of the targeted region for the test so that it can improve efficiency of diagnosis, there occurred an increase of SUV, a semi-quantitative analytical method. In this research, we measure the variation of SUV through the correction of the influence of contrast media and compare the differences. As we revise the SUV which is increasing in the image with attenuation correction by using contrast media, we can expect anatomical images of high-resolution. Furthermore, it is considered that through this trusted semi-quantitative method, it will definitely enhance the diagnostic value.

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A Data-based Sales Forecasting Support System for New Businesses (데이터기반의 신규 사업 매출추정방법 연구: 지능형 사업평가 시스템을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-Pyo;Sung, Tae-Eung;Choi, San
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2017
  • Analysis of future business or investment opportunities, such as business feasibility analysis and company or technology valuation, necessitate objective estimation on the relevant market and expected sales. While there are various ways to classify the estimation methods of these new sales or market size, they can be broadly divided into top-down and bottom-up approaches by benchmark references. Both methods, however, require a lot of resources and time. Therefore, we propose a data-based intelligent demand forecasting system to support evaluation of new business. This study focuses on analogical forecasting, one of the traditional quantitative forecasting methods, to develop sales forecasting intelligence systems for new businesses. Instead of simply estimating sales for a few years, we hereby propose a method of estimating the sales of new businesses by using the initial sales and the sales growth rate of similar companies. To demonstrate the appropriateness of this method, it is examined whether the sales performance of recently established companies in the same industry category in Korea can be utilized as a reference variable for the analogical forecasting. In this study, we examined whether the phenomenon of "mean reversion" was observed in the sales of start-up companies in order to identify errors in estimating sales of new businesses based on industry sales growth rate and whether the differences in business environment resulting from the different timing of business launch affects growth rate. We also conducted analyses of variance (ANOVA) and latent growth model (LGM) to identify differences in sales growth rates by industry category. Based on the results, we proposed industry-specific range and linear forecasting models. This study analyzed the sales of only 150,000 start-up companies in Korea in the last 10 years, and identified that the average growth rate of start-ups in Korea is higher than the industry average in the first few years, but it shortly shows the phenomenon of mean-reversion. In addition, although the start-up founding juncture affects the sales growth rate, it is not high significantly and the sales growth rate can be different according to the industry classification. Utilizing both this phenomenon and the performance of start-up companies in relevant industries, we have proposed two models of new business sales based on the sales growth rate. The method proposed in this study makes it possible to objectively and quickly estimate the sales of new business by industry, and it is expected to provide reference information to judge whether sales estimated by other methods (top-down/bottom-up approach) pass the bounds from ordinary cases in relevant industry. In particular, the results of this study can be practically used as useful reference information for business feasibility analysis or technical valuation for entering new business. When using the existing top-down method, it can be used to set the range of market size or market share. As well, when using the bottom-up method, the estimation period may be set in accordance of the mean reverting period information for the growth rate. The two models proposed in this study will enable rapid and objective sales estimation of new businesses, and are expected to improve the efficiency of business feasibility analysis and technology valuation process by developing intelligent information system. In academic perspectives, it is a very important discovery that the phenomenon of 'mean reversion' is found among start-up companies out of general small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) as well as stable companies such as listed companies. In particular, there exists the significance of this study in that over the large-scale data the mean reverting phenomenon of the start-up firms' sales growth rate is different from that of the listed companies, and that there is a difference in each industry. If a linear model, which is useful for estimating the sales of a specific company, is highly likely to be utilized in practical aspects, it can be explained that the range model, which can be used for the estimation method of the sales of the unspecified firms, is highly likely to be used in political aspects. It implies that when analyzing the business activities and performance of a specific industry group or enterprise group there is political usability in that the range model enables to provide references and compare them by data based start-up sales forecasting system.

An Empirical Study on Perceived Value and Continuous Intention to Use of Smart Phone, and the Moderating Effect of Personal Innovativeness (스마트폰의 지각된 가치와 지속적 사용의도, 그리고 개인 혁신성의 조절효과)

  • Han, Joonhyoung;Kang, Sungbae;Moon, Taesoo
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.53-84
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    • 2013
  • With rapid development of ICT (Information and Communications Technology), new services by the convergence of mobile network and application technology began to appear. Today, smart phone with new ICT convergence network capabilities is exceedingly popular and very useful as a new tool for the development of business opportunities. Previous studies based on Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) suggested critical factors, which should be considered for acquiring new customers and maintaining existing users in smart phone market. However, they had a limitation to focus on technology acceptance, not value based approach. Prior studies on customer's adoption of electronic utilities like smart phone product showed that the antecedents such as the perceived benefit and the perceived sacrifice could explain the causality between what is perceived and what is acquired over diverse contexts. So, this research conceptualizes perceived value as a trade-off between perceived benefit and perceived sacrifice, and we need to research the perceived value to grasp user's continuous intention to use of smart phone. The purpose of this study is to investigate the structured relationship between benefit (quality, usefulness, playfulness) and sacrifice (technicality, cost, security risk) of smart phone users, perceived value, and continuous intention to use. In addition, this study intends to analyze the differences between two subgroups of smart phone users by the degree of personal innovativeness. Personal innovativeness could help us to understand the moderating effect between how perceptions are formed and continuous intention to use smart phone. This study conducted survey through e-mail, direct mail, and interview with smart phone users. Empirical analysis based on 330 respondents was conducted in order to test the hypotheses. First, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived usefulness among three factors of perceived benefit has the highest positive impact on perceived value, and then followed by perceived playfulness and perceived quality. Second, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived cost among three factors of perceived sacrifice has significantly negative impact on perceived value, however, technicality and security risk have no significant impact on perceived value. Also, the result of hypotheses testing showed that perceived value has significant direct impact on continuous intention to use of smart phone. In this regard, marketing managers of smart phone company should pay more attention to improve task efficiency and performance of smart phone, including rate systems of smart phone. Additionally, to test the moderating effect of personal innovativeness, this research conducted multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users. In a group with high level of innovativeness, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived playfulness was the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result of the group with high level of innovativeness explains that innovators and early adopters are able to cope with higher level of cost and risk, and they expect to develop more positive intentions toward higher performance through the use of an innovation. Also, hedonic behavior in the case of the group with low level of innovativeness aims to provide self-fulfilling value to the users, in contrast to utilitarian perspective, which aims to provide instrumental value to the users. However, with regard to perceived sacrifice, both groups in general showed negative impact on perceived value. Also, the group with high level of innovativeness had less overall negative impact on perceived value compared to the group with low level of innovativeness across all factors. In both group with high level of innovativeness and with low level of innovativeness, perceived cost has the highest negative influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, the analysis for a group with high level of innovativeness showed that perceived technicality was the positive factor to influence perceived value than others. However, the analysis for a group with low level of innovativeness showed that perceived security risk was the second high negative factor to influence perceived value than others. Unlike previous studies, this study focuses on influencing factors on continuous intention to use of smart phone, rather than considering initial purchase and adoption of smart phone. First, perceived value, which was used to identify user's adoption behavior, has a mediating effect among perceived benefit, perceived sacrifice, and continuous intention to use smart phone. Second, perceived usefulness has the highest positive influence on perceived value, while perceived cost has significant negative influence on perceived value. Third, perceived value, like prior studies, has high level of positive influence on continuous intention to use smart phone. Fourth, in multi-group analysis by the degree of personal innovativeness of smart phone users, perceived usefulness, in a group with high level of innovativeness, has the highest positive influence on perceived value than other factors. Instead, perceived playfulness, in a group with low level of innovativeness, has the highest positive factor to influence perceived value than others. This result shows that early adopters intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their job useful, instead market followers intend to adopt smart phone as a tool to make their time enjoyable. In terms of marketing strategy for smart phone company, marketing managers should pay more attention to identify their customers' lifetime value by the phase of smart phone adoption, as well as to understand their behavior intention to accept the risk and uncertainty positively. The academic contribution of this study primarily is to employ the VAM (Value-based Adoption Model) as a conceptual foundation, compared to TAM (Technology Acceptance Model) used widely by previous studies. VAM is useful for understanding continuous intention to use smart phone in comparison with TAM as a new IT utility by individual adoption. Perceived value dominantly influences continuous intention to use smart phone. The results of this study justify our research model adoption on each antecedent of perceived value as a benefit and a sacrifice component. While TAM could be widely used in user acceptance of new technology, it has a limitation to explain the new IT adoption like smart phone, because of customer behavior intention to choose the value of the object. In terms of theoretical approach, this study provides theoretical contribution to the development, design, and marketing of smart phone. The practical contribution of this study is to suggest useful decision alternatives concerned to marketing strategy formulation for acquiring and retaining long-term customers related to smart phone business. Since potential customers are interested in both benefit and sacrifice when evaluating the value of smart phone, marketing managers in smart phone company has to put more effort into creating customer's value of low sacrifice and high benefit so that customers will continuously have higher adoption on smart phone. Especially, this study shows that innovators and early adopters with high level of innovativeness have higher adoption than market followers with low level of innovativeness, in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived cost. To formulate marketing strategy for smart phone diffusion, marketing managers have to pay more attention to identify not only their customers' benefit and sacrifice components but also their customers' lifetime value to adopt smart phone.