• 제목/요약/키워드: Impact-based forecast

검색결과 105건 처리시간 0.042초

상업공간에 대한 실내디자인 및 계획의 변화와 흐름에 관한 연구 -미국 대도시의 RETAIL STORE를 중심으로- (A Study on the Change & Flow of Shop Interior Planning & Design -Focus on Retail Stores in Great Cities in U.S.A-)

  • 박태욱;이현경
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제10호
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    • pp.77-81
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    • 1997
  • The study is for interior design and planning of new c conceptual modern shop(called "Value Conscious Store") t through the history of retail store, and its process is based on m most great cites in USA. The Value Conscious Store has c come into existence for consumer and retailer who have had v various lifestyles and characters. From analysis of new l lifestyle consumer to retailer's strategy. we could find i interesting design solutions and, forecast next concerns for d designing store. Store has been designed up-scaled and opened to give pleasure and comfort and made by a theme to m make unique and strong impact for customers. Also it uses M Multi-Media for excitment, and is designed as exhibition of m museum to lead constomers to new culture and trend. From t these interior trends will go on to next generation with new c concepts : environment and nature, senses and sensibility. T These words will be the new solution for creative and s successful store design by the designer who has environm mentally conscious and social responsibility in his mind. his mind.

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Forecasting the Environmental Change of Technological Innovation System in South Korea in the COVID-19 Era

  • Kim, Youbean;Park, Soyeon;Kwon, Ki-Seok
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2020
  • Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

Climate change impact assessment of agricultural reservoir using system dynamics model: focus on Seongju reservoir

  • Choi, Eunhyuk
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.311-331
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    • 2021
  • Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.

인구구조 변화가 성장 잠재력에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Demographic Changes on the Growth Potential of Korea)

  • 주상영;현준석
    • 분석과 대안
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.71-102
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    • 2020
  • This study analyzes the effect of demographic changes on economic growth. We use the supply-side output identity to forecast the growth potential of the Korean economy. According to the results, even based on optimistic assumptions and prospects, the economic growth rate is likely to fall drastically starting in 2020. Of course, to maintain growth potential, efforts to increase productivity are necessary. However, given the historical experience of developed countries, it is not clear whether the huge trend of demographic change can be offset by efforts to increase productivity. In the so-called '30-50 club' countries, both labor productivity and growth rate tend to fall after reaching the per capita income of $30,000. The degree of decline in the growth rate is closely related to changes in the working age population and the prime-age workforce. The results are similar when tracking the path of changes in total factor productivities of the economy. When a certain level of income is reached, the increase in total factor productivity also tends to slow down. The ripple effects of rapid changes in demographics will indeed be extensive. The negative impact is likely to be concentrated at a time when the working age population, the prime-age workforce, and the total population shrink simultaneously. Above all, it is necessary to use the government's fiscal space to block the possibility of a rapid fall in the growth rate. In addition, it is important to continuously implement various reform tasks that should be promoted, such as improving the education system and strengthening the social safety net.

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Impacts of surface irregularity on vibration analysis of single-walled carbon nanotubes based on Donnell thin shell theory

  • Selim, Mahmoud M.;Althobaiti, Saad;Yahia, I.S.;Mohammed, Ibtisam M.O.;Hussin, Amira M.;Mohamed, Abdel-Baset A.
    • Advances in nano research
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    • 제12권5호
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    • pp.483-488
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    • 2022
  • The present work is an attempt to study the vibration analysis of the single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) under the effect of the surface irregularity using Donnell's model. The surface irregularity represented by the parabolic form. According to Donnell's model and three-dimensional elasticity theory, a novel governing equations and its solution are derived and matched with the case of no irregularity effects. To understand the reaction of the nanotube to the irregularity effects in terms of natural frequency, the numerical calculations are done. The results obtained could provide a better representation of the vibration behavior of an irregular single-walled carbon nanotube, where the aspect ratio (L/d) and surface irregularity all have a significant impact on the natural frequency of vibrating SWCNTs. Furthermore, the findings of surface irregularity effects on vibration SWCNT can be utilized to forecast and prevent the phenomena of resonance of single-walled carbon nanotubes.

CDOWatcher: Systematic, Data-driven Platform for Early Detection of Contagious Diseases Outbreaks

  • Albarrak, Abdullah M.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권11호
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    • pp.77-86
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    • 2022
  • The destructive impact of contagious diseases outbreaks on all life facets necessitates developing effective solutions to control these diseases outbreaks. This research proposes an end-to-end, data-driven platform which consists of multiple modules that are working in harmony to achieve a concrete goal: early detection of contagious diseases outbreaks (i.e., epidemic diseases detection). Achieving that goal enables decision makers and people in power to act promptly, resulting in robust prevention management of contagious diseases. It must be clear that the goal of this proposed platform is not to predict or forecast the spread of contagious diseases, rather, its goal is to promptly detect contagious diseases outbreaks as they happen. The front end of the proposed platform is a web-based dashboard that visualizes diseases outbreaks in real-time on a real map. These outbreaks are detected via another component of the platform which utilizes data mining techniques and algorithms on gathered datasets. Those gathered datasets are managed by yet another component. Specifically, a mobile application will be the main source of data to the platform. Being a vital component of the platform, the datasets are managed by a DBMS that is specifically tailored for this platform. Preliminary results are presented to showcase the performance of a prototype of the proposed platform.

공간 예측 모델을 이용한 산사태 재해의 인명 위험평가 (Life Risk Assessment of Landslide Disaster Using Spatial Prediction Model)

  • 장동호
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제15권6호
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    • pp.373-383
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    • 2006
  • The spatial mapping of risk is very useful data in planning for disaster preparedness. This research presents a methodology for making the landslide life risk map in the Boeun area which had considerable landslide damage following heavy rain in August, 1998. We have developed a three-stage procedure in spatial data analysis not only to estimate the probability of the occurrence of the natural hazardous events but also to evaluate the uncertainty of the estimators of that probability. The three-stage procedure consists of: (i)construction of a hazard prediction map of "future" hazardous events; (ii) validation of prediction results and estimation of the probability of occurrence for each predicted hazard level; and (iii) generation of risk maps with the introduction of human life factors representing assumed or established vulnerability levels by combining the prediction map in the first stage and the estimated probabilities in the second stage with human life data. The significance of the landslide susceptibility map was evaluated by computing a prediction rate curve. It is used that the Bayesian prediction model and the case study results (the landslide susceptibility map and prediction rate curve) can be prepared for prevention of future landslide life risk map. Data from the Bayesian model-based landslide susceptibility map and prediction ratio curves were used together with human rife data to draft future landslide life risk maps. Results reveal that individual pixels had low risks, but the total risk death toll was estimated at 3.14 people. In particular, the dangerous areas involving an estimated 1/100 people were shown to have the highest risk among all research-target areas. Three people were killed in this area when landslides occurred in 1998. Thus, this risk map can deliver factual damage situation prediction to policy decision-makers, and subsequently can be used as useful data in preventing disasters. In particular, drafting of maps on landslide risk in various steps will enable one to forecast the occurrence of disasters.

신경망과 퍼지 알고리즘을 이용한 하천 수질예측 (Water Quality Forecasting of River using Neural Network and Fuzzy Algorithm)

  • 이경훈;강일환;문병석;박진금
    • 환경영향평가
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2005
  • This study applied the Neural Network and Fuzzy theory to show water-purity control and preventive measure in water quality forecasting of the future river. This study picked out NAJU and HAMPYUNG as the subject of investigation and used monthly the water quality and the outflow data of KWANGJU2, NAJU, YOUNGSANNPO and HAMPYUNG from 1995 to 1999 to forecast BOD, COD, T-N, T-P water density. The datum from 1995 to 1999 are used for study and that of 2000 are used for verification. To develop model of water quality forecasting, firstly, this research formed Neural Network model and divided Neural Network model into two case - the case of considering lag and not considering. And this study selected optimal Neural Network model through changing the number of hidden layer based on input layer(n) from n to 3n. Through forecasting result, the case without considering lag showed more precise simulated result. Accordingly, this study intended to compare, analyse that Fuzzy model using the method without considering lag with Neural Network model. As a result, this study found that the model without considering lag in Neural Network Network shows the most excellent outcome. Thus this study examined a forecasting accuracy, analyzed result and verified propriety through appling the method of water quality forecasting using Neural Network and Fuzzy Algorithms to the actual case.

약용작물 오미자의 중장기 수급전망 분석 (An Analysis on Supply-Demand Outlook of Korean Omija(Medicinal Plant))

  • 최병옥;김배성
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
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    • 제15권5호
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    • pp.2689-2694
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    • 2014
  • 이 연구는 한 중 FTA 체결에 따른 오미자의 시장 파급영향을 계측 분석하여, 2014-2018년 동안의 중장기 수급의 변화를 검토한 내용을 담고 있다. 오미자에 대한 한 중 FTA 체결의 구체적인 내용을 알 수 없는 상황에서, 실현가능한 오미자 시장개방 상황을 시나리오로 구성하여 수급모형에 도입하고, 현재 중국산 오미자의 수입상황을 반영하여 분석하였다. 오미자에 대한 중장기 수급 및 가격 전망을 위해 오미자 개별 품목에 대한 별도의 부분균형모형을 구축하였고, 모형내 각 방정식들은 계량경제학 방법을 이용하여 추정하였다. 분석결과, 관세율이 현행 8%에서 2014년부터 2018년까지 단계적으로 철폐될 경우, 재배면적은 2018년 3,370ha으로 다소 감소하고, 소비량은 2018년 12,040.8톤으로 증가하는 것으로 전망되고, 생산액이 5년간(2014-2018)누적으로 약 98억원 수준 감소하는 것으로 추정되었다.

기후변화 적응을 위한 사용자 중심의 기후서비스체계 제안 및 사용자인터페이스 플랫폼 개발 (Suggestion of User-Centered Climate Service Framework and Development of User Interface Platform for Climate Change Adaptation)

  • 조재필;정임국;조원일;이은정;강대인;이준혁
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2018
  • There is an emphasis on the importance of adaptation against to climate change and related natural disasters. As a result, various climate information with different time-scale can be used for science-based climate change adaptation policy. From the aspects of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), various time-scaled climate information in Korea is mainly produced by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) However, application of weather and climate information in different application sectors has been done individually in the fields of agriculture and water resources mostly based-on weather information. Furthermore, utilization of climate information including seasonal forecast and climate change projections are insufficient. Therefore, establishment of the Cooperation Center for Application of Weather and Climate Information is necessary as an institutional platform for the UIP (User Interface Platform) focusing on multi-model ensemble (MME) based climate service, seamless climate service, and climate service based on multidisciplinary approach. In addition, APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) was developed as a technical platform for UIP focusing on user-centered downscaling of various time-scaled climate information, application of downscaled data into impact assessment modeling in various sectors, and finally producing information can be used in decision making procedures. AIMS is expected to be helpful for the increase of adaptation capacity against climate change in developing countries and Korea through the voluntary participation of producer and user groups within in the institutional and technical platform suggested.