• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact estimation

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Estimation of the electricity demand function using a lagged dependent variable model (내생시차변수모형을 이용한 전력수요함수 추정)

  • Ahn, So-Yeon;Jin, Se-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2016
  • The demand for electricity has a considerable impact on various energy sectors since electricity is generated from various energy sources. This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function and obtain some quantitative information on price and income elasticities of the demand. To this end, we apply a lagged dependent variable model to derive long-run as well as short-run elasticities using the time-series data over the period 1991-2014. Our dependent variable is annual electricity demand. The independent variables include constant term, real price of electricity, and real gross domestic product. The results show that the short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.142 and 0.866, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 5% level. That is, the electricity demand is in-elastic with respect to price and income changes in the short-run. The long-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are calculated to be -0.210 and 1.287, respectively, which are also statistically meaningful at the 5% level. The electricity demand is still in-elastic with regard to price change in the long-run. However, the electricity demand is elastic regarding income change in the long-run. Therefore, this indicates that the effect of demand-side management policy through price-control is restrictive in both the short- and long-run. The growth in electricity demand following income growth is expected to be more remarkable in the long-run than in the short-run.

Analysis of Flow Duration and Estimation of Increased Groundwater Quantity Due to Groundwater Dam Construction (지하댐 건설로 인한 지하수 증가량 계산 및 유황 분석)

  • Kim, Jong-Tae;Kim, Gyoo-Bum;Chung, Il-Moon;Jeong, Gyo-Cheol
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.91-98
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    • 2014
  • This paper aims to calculate the increase in groundwater quantity following groundwater dam construction, and to assess its impact on surface water. In the study area of Osib-cheon, Yeongdeok, we estimated groundwater quantity, groundwater level, and effective porosity, and examined surface water fluctuations with respect to the increased groundwater quantity based on the flow duration. The results reveal that the increased groundwater quantity was at most $91,746m^3$ in the total drainage basin of the groundwater dam, and the reduced groundwater quantity was at most $11,259m^3$ in the lower zone of the groundwater dam. Therefore, the total groundwater resources secured was $80,487m^3$ and the decrease in groundwater quantity was just 12.27% of the amount of increase. There were changes in discharge rate by up to $3.00{\times}10^{-2}m^3/s$, as deduced from an analysis offlow duration as a result of groundwater dam construction. The overall difference between before and after construction of the dam was almost insignificant compared with the previous dam. The present results indicate that dammed groundwater can serve as an alternative water resource with sufficient quantity.

Modeling for the fate of Organic Chemicals in a Multi-media Environment Using MUSEM (다매체 환경 모델 MUSEM을 이용한 유해화학물질의 환경거동예측 모델링)

  • Roh, Kyong-Joon;Kim, Dong-Myung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.201-210
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    • 2007
  • Pollution by chemical substances such as POPs, EDCs and PBTs in the ecosystem has become more complex and varied, increasing the possibility of irreversible damage to human health or the ecosystem. It is necessary to have a exposure assessment in a multi-media environment for various chemical substances is required for efficient management. This study applied MUSEM(Multi-media Simplebox-systems Environmental Model), a multimedia environmental model that can simultaneously evaluate the possibility of exposure of hundreds of chemical substances in order to efficiently manage chemical substances that can have negative impact on human health or ecological environment through environmental contamination. MUSEM executed the modeling for Japan by setting all 47 prefectures of japan as the regional area for 62 chemical substances and the rest of the territory of japan, excluding regional area, as the continental area and made the estimation of concentration among environment media in each administrative area and made the sensitivity analysis on Tokyo area. The results of simulation for chemical distribution showed that most of the target chemicals located in water region. The result of sensitivity analysis for octanol-water partition rate showed that the concentration change of soil in urban/industrial area and sediment in freshwater was high. In the case of sensitivity analysis for degradation rate showed that the concentration change of freshwater, soil in urban/industrial area, and sediment in freshwater was high.

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Analysis of Crop Survey Protocols to Support Parameter Calibration and Verification for Crop Models of Major Vegetables (주요 채소 작물 대상 작물 모형 모수 추정 및 검증을 지원하기 위한 생육 조사 프로토콜 분석)

  • Kim, Kwang Soo;Kim, Junhwan;Hyun, Shinwoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.68-78
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    • 2020
  • Crop models have been used to predict vegetable crop yield, which would have a considerable economic impact on consumers as well as producers. A small number of models have been developed to estimate growth and yield of vegetables due to limited availability of growth observation data in high-quality. In this study, we aimed to analyze the protocols designed for collection of the observation data for major vegetable crops including cabbage, radish, garlic, onion and pepper. We also designed the protocols suitable for development and verification of a vegetable crop growth model. In particular, different measures were proposed to improve the existing protocol used by Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) and Rural Development Administration (RDA), which would enhance reliability of parameter estimation for the crop model. It would be advantageous to select sampling sites in areas where reliable weather observation data can be obtained because crop models quantify the response of crop growth to given weather conditions. It is recommended to choose multiple sampling sites where climate conditions would differ. It is crucial to collect time series data for comparison between observed and simulated crop growth and yield. A crop model can be developed to predict actual yield rather than attainable yield using data for crop damage caused by diseases and pests as well as weather anomalies. A bigdata platform where the observation data are to be shared would facilitate the development of crop models for vegetable crops.

Estimation of the Relative Risk of the Elderly with Different Evacuation Velocity in a Toxic Gas Leakage Accident (독성물질 누출 시 대피 속도 차이에 따른 고령자의 상대적 위험도 산정)

  • Lee, H.T.;Kwak, J.;Park, J.;Ryu, J.;Lee, J.;Jung, Seungho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.13-21
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    • 2019
  • Leakage accidents in businesses dealing with hazardous chemicals can have a great impact on the workers inside the workplace, as well as residents outside the workplace. In fact, there were cases where hazardous chemicals leaked from many businesses. As a result, the Chemicals Control Act(CCA) was enacted in 2015, the Ministry of Environment introduced an Off-site Risk Assessment(ORA). The purpose of the ORA is to secure safety from the installation of the design of the workplace facilities so that chemical accidents of hazardous chemical handling facilities do not cause human or physical damage outside the workplace. In general, the ORA qualitatively determines where a protected facility is within the scope of the accident scenario. However, elderly who belong to the sensitive group is more sensitive than the general group under the same chemical accident effect, and the extent of the damage is serious. According to data from the Korea National Statistic Office, the number of elderly people is expected to increase steadily. Therefore, a quantitative risk analysis considering the elderly is necessary as a result of a chemical accident. In this study, accident scenarios for 14 locations were set up to perform emergency evacuation due to toxic gas leakage of Cl2(Chlorine) and HF(Hydrogen Fluoride), and the effects of exposure were analyzed based on the evacuation velocity difference of age 20s and 60s. The ALOHA(Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) program was used to calculate the concentration for assessing the effects. The time of exposure to toxic gas was calculated based on the time it took for the evacuation to run from the start point to the desired point and a methodology was devised that could be applied to the risk calculation. As a result of the study, the relative risk of the elderly, the sensitive group, needs to be determined.

Performance Evaluation of Hash Join Algorithm on Flash Memory SSDs (플래쉬 메모리 SSD 기반 해쉬 조인 알고리즘의 성능 평가)

  • Park, Jang-Woo;Park, Sang-Shin;Lee, Sang-Won;Park, Chan-Ik
    • Journal of KIISE:Computing Practices and Letters
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.1031-1040
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    • 2010
  • Hash join is one of the core algorithms in databases management systems. If a hash join cannot complete in one-pass because the available memory is insufficient (i.e., hash table overflow), however, it may incur a few sequential writes and excessive random reads. With harddisk as the tempoary storage for hash joins, the I/O time would be dominated by slow random reads in its probing phase. Meanwhile, flash memory based SSDs (flash SSDs) are becoming popular, and we will witness in the foreseeable future that flash SSDs replace harddisks in enterprise databases. In contrast to harddisk, flash SSD without any mechanical component has fast latency in random reads, and thus it can boost hash join performance. In this paper, we investigate several important and practical issues when flash SSD is used as tempoary storage for hash join. First, we reveal the va patterns of hash join in detail and explain why flash SSD can outperform harddisk by more than an order of magnitude. Second, we present and analyze the impact of cluster size (i.e., va unit in hash join) on performance. Finally, we emperically demonstrate that, while a commerical query optimizer is error-prone in predicting the execution time with harddisk as temporary storage, it can precisely estimate the execution time with flash SSD. In summary, we show that, when used as temporary storage for hash join, flash SSD will provide more reliable cost estimation as well as fast performance.

Development of Evaluation Method for Environmental Friendly Property in National Highway (일반국도의 환경친화성 평가방법론 개발)

  • Jeon, Woo-Hoon;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.87-92
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    • 2010
  • As the Concept "how environmental friendly" becomes more and more important in road construction. However, so far there is no estimation method. Environmental friendly concept can be incorporated at the plan level in order to influence decision making, and support policies that affect environment. The overall goal of this study was to develop environmental friendly concept measures for the national highway and to develop a methodology to implement a more environmental friendly concept. The research identified 8 performance measures through a project analysis that could address environmental impact assessment system's ten strategic goals - Topography, Wildlife, hydrology, landuse, air quality, water quality, soil, waste, noise, landscape. The qualitatively and quantitatively evaluation approach was selected as the decision support framework and performance measure were investigated using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) and pilot corridor for a 10 section and calculate the index values. The methodology was applied to a pilot corridor comprised of a 120km section of national highway in korea. The methodology made it possible to identify the specific performance measures that need improvement to enhance the overall environmental friendly concept. It is fairly intuitive, based on readily available data, and is easy to apply. It provides a powerful tool for government to assess the relative environmental friendly conceptof their transportation corridors now and in the future. It allows for comparisons within a corridor and with other corridors and identifies the improvements needed to enhance the environmental friendly concept.

A Study on Low-Floor Bus Routes Selection - Focused on the Case of Jeollabuk-Do - (저상버스 노선선정 방안에 관한 연구 -전라북도 사례를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Chang-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Youp;Kim, Jai-Sung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2014
  • Approaching to aging society with increasing transportation vulnerable, most developed countries has positively promote low-floor bus. Such circumstance in Korea has plan to introduce low-floor bus to intra-city bus system which accounted for 30 percent of total number of buses however there is no specific operating plan for this matter. According to the revealed preference study on bus service, the study shows that the efficiency of low-floor is relatively low than that of other buses, therefore, it is necessary to establish feasible plan for bus route selection. Thus, this study is to conduct research on analyzing trip characteristics of transportation vulnerable and establish bus route selection measures for low-floor bus. The result from the survey in Jeollabuk-do Province reveals that the trip purpose of transportation vulnerable is mainly for welfare and medical service, which was made less than 6 times a week. Futhermore, 37.6 percent of transportation vulnerable use buses, thus, it is essential to improve its service quality for enhancing user's convenience and safety. In that transportation vulnerable O-D needs to be established and forecasts future demand for selecting optimal bus route. According to the estimation, route passing through densely populated areas with transportation vulnerable should take the first priority, city circular and other route would be next. Moreover, it is economically efficient that areas populated more than 200,000 with fixed route and less than 200,000 with limited route responsive to demands would be feasible plans. This study will have greater an impact on transportation planning and further research on transportation vulnerable.

A Study of Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emission and Reduction by Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) Management (D시 생활폐기물 관리 방법과 온실가스 배출량과 감축량 산정 연구)

  • Yun, Hyunmyeong;Chang, Yun;Jang, Yong-Chul
    • Journal of Korea Society of Waste Management
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    • v.35 no.7
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    • pp.606-615
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    • 2018
  • Over the past two decades, the options for solid waste management have been changing from land disposal to recycling, waste-to-energy, and incineration due to growing attention for resource and energy recovery. In addition, the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission has become an issue of concern in the waste sector because such gases often released into the atmosphere during the waste management processes (e.g., biodegradation in landfills and combustion by incineration) can contribute to climate change. In this study, the emission and reduction rates of GHGs by the municipal solid waste (MSW) management options in D city have been studied for the years 1996-2016. The emissions and reduction rates were calculated according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines and the EU Prognos method, respectively. A dramatic decrease in the waste landfilled was observed between 1996 and 2004, after which its amount has been relatively constant. Waste recycling and incineration have been increased over the decades, leading to a peak in the GHG emissions from landfills of approximately $63,323tCO_2\;eq/yr$ in 2005, while the lowest value of $35,962tCO_2\;eq/yr$ was observed in 2016. In 2016, the estimated emission rate of GHGs from incineration was $59,199tCO_2\;eq/yr$. The reduction rate by material recycling was the highest ($-164,487tCO_2\;eq/yr$) in 2016, followed by the rates by heat recovery with incineration ($-59,242tCO_2\;eq/yr$) and landfill gas recovery ($-23,922tCO_2\;eq/yr$). Moreover, the cumulative GHG reduction rate between 1996 and 2016 was $-3.46MtCO_2\;eq$, implying a very positive impact on future $CO_2$ reduction achieved by waste recycling as well as heat recovery of incineration and landfill gas recovery. This study clearly demonstrates that improved MSW management systems are positive for GHGs reduction and energy savings. These results could help the waste management decision-makers supporting the MSW recycling and energy recovery policies as well as the climate change mitigation efforts at local government level.

Classification by Erosion Shapes and Estimation of Sea-cliff Erosion Rates through Field Survey in Dundu-ri, Anmyeondo in Korea's Western Coast (현장 조사를 통한 안면도 둔두리 해식애의 침식율 산정 및 침식형태 분류)

  • KIM, Jang-soo;JANG, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.41-53
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    • 2013
  • This research was carried out to classify erosion shapes and sea-cliff erosion rates were estimated through periodic field survey in Dundu-ri, Anmyeondo. Based on the results of field measurements using the datum-point, the annual sea-cliff erosion rate was estimated about 25~102cm/yr by point. The erosion rate gradually increases from spring to summer, but tends to decrease slightly in autumn. Specifically, the erosion rate between June and July indicated a rather decreasing trend, but showed a sharp increase between July and September. This was attributed to erosion that proceeds more rapidly than during other periods due to severe rainstorms in summer that had a direct impact on the study area as well as storm surges caused by hurricanes. Afterwards, the sea-cliff erosion rate gradually decreased in autumn, but reflected an increasing trend again from December to January. This was attributed to the mechanical weathering that actively progresses as bed rocks on the sea-cliff undergo repeated freezing and thawing in winter. The seacliff in Dundu-ri is divided into three types according to the erosion shape. First, Type A is observed in the sea-cliff composed of the same bed rocks and hard rock stratum. Second, Type B is found in the sea-cliff with a relatively gentler slope compared to Type A, since weathering material including soil is formed on the surface of the sea-cliff consisting of the same bed rocks and hard rock stratum. Lastly, Type C is observed in the sea-cliff where hard rock stratum is mixed with soft rock stratum. In this case, the soft rock stratum slumps and erodes first by precipitation and wave energy, followed by additional slumping of the exposed hard rock stratum.