• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact estimation

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Prognostic Value of Matrix Metalloproteinase 9 Expression in Breast Cancer Patients: A Meta-analysis

  • Song, Jian;Su, Hong;Zhou, Yang-Yang;Guo, Liang-Liang
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1615-1621
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    • 2013
  • Background: Matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) is related to tumor invasion and metastasis. However, the role of MMP-9 expression in breast cancer survival remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to accomplish a more accurate estimation of the association between MMP-9 expression and survival results in breast cancer patients through meta-analysis. Methods: A meta-analysis of published studies investigating the effects of positive MMP-9 expression on both relapse free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was performed. Relevant literature was confirmed by searching electronic databases including PubMed, Ovid, EMBASE and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) before November 1, 2012. Individual hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted and pooled HRs with 95% CIs were used to evaluate the strength of the association between positive MMP-9 expression and survival results of breast cancer patients. Funnel plot and Egger's regression tests were used to evaluate publication bias. Heterogeneity and sensitivity analysis was also conducted. All the work was completed using STATA. Results: A total of 2,344 patients from 15 evaluative studies were finally included. Pooled HRs and 95% CIs suggested that MMP-9 overexpression had an unfavorable impact on both OS (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.41-2.04) and RFS (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.17-2.01) in breast cancer patients. There was no significant heterogeneity observed in the studies reported for OS (P=0.360, $I^2$=8.8%), but not RFS (P=0.002, $I^2$=67%). Publication bias was absent among the studies both in OS and RFS cases (t=-0.54, P=0.605 and t=1.71, P=0.131, respectively). Omission of any single study had little effect on the combined risk estimates on sensitivity analysis. Conclusion: The results of this meta-analysis suggest that positive MMP-9 expression confers a higher risk of relapse and a worse survival in patients with breast cancer. Larger prospective studies are now needed to evaluate the clinical utility of MMP-9 expression.

Effect of the Bonus-Malus Policy upon Car Market Structure (자동차 시장구조에 따른 저탄소차협력금제도의 효과 변화)

  • Yi, Woo Pyeong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.23-44
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    • 2015
  • The policy aimed at introducing a Bonus-Malus system to reduce GHG and raise the market share of small cars is scheduled to go into effect in South Korea in 2020. Although the policy was originally planned to be enforced from 2015, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy argued that the system brings low reduction effect and relative disadvantage to domestic small cars and brought arguments in 2014. As a result, the enforcement was pushed back. Related studies are mainly focused on offering statistical estimation of the policy's effect to support the arguments, and few theoretical studies were published given that there was not enough time until 2015 back then. The author approached the issue with mathematical modeling in order to give theoretical basis for sophisticated empirical studies. If car suppliers have market power and strategically set their prices, the impact of Bouns-Malus on car prices would be lower than what was originally intended. In case only a part of the car market loses its market power, the effect of the policy would be improved. Assume that the Bonus-Malus is currently at an optimal level and the car market structure is undergoing changes, then the direction of the new optimal level would depend on the elasticity of demand of each market and substitute elasticity. For example, if the car market becomes more monopolistic while the demand for big cars is elastic, demand for small cars is inelastic and substitution elasticity is low, then the new optimal level of Bonus-Malus should be higher.

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Effect of Forest Land Use on Soil Runoff in Small Watershed (산지소유역에서 임지이용이 토사유출에 미치는 영향)

  • Ma, Ho-Seop;Kang, Won-Seok;Kang, Eun-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.101 no.2
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    • pp.220-225
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    • 2012
  • This study was carried out to clarify the impact of land use (Castanea crenata, Pinus densiflora and Plantation Land) on soil runoff in small watershed. The soil runoff showed in order of plantation land, Castanea stand and Pinus stand. The resulting models in linear equations of three stands were able to account for 70%, 60% and 60% respectively. The relationship between soil runoff and forest environmental factors was a positive correlation at 1% level with slope, forest type, soil hardness, watershed area, stream length and at 5% level with accumulative rainfall, but was negative correlation at 1% level with coverage. The main factors that affected soil runoff in small watershed showed in order of coverage, accumulative rainfall and stand type. In the stepwise regression between soil runoff and forest environmental factors, the estimation equation is as follow; Y = 31.250 - 1.140(Coverage) + 0.413(Accumulative rainfall) + 20.829(Forest type). The results indicates that dangerous areas of landslide and soil runoff by land use could be applied to the mitigation measures such as afforestation, erosion check dam and revetment for erosion control and water quality management in small watershed.

Estimation of Displacement Responses Using the Wavelet Decomposition Signal (웨이블릿 분해신호를 이용한 변위응답의 추정)

  • Jung, Beom-Seok;Kim, Nam-Sik;Kook, Seung-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.18 no.3 s.93
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    • pp.347-354
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    • 2006
  • In this paper we have attempted to bring the wavelet transform theory to the dynamic response conversion algorithm. This algorithm is proposed for the problem of estimating the displacement data by defining the transformed responses. In this algerian, the displacement response can be obtained from the measured acceleration records by integration without requiring the knowledge of the initial velocity and displacement information. The advantage of the wavelet transform over either a pure spectral or temporal decomposition of the signal is that the pertinent signals features can be characterized in the time-frequency plane. In the response conversion procedure using the wavelet decomposition signals, not only the static component can be extracted, but also the dynamic displacement component can be separated by the structural mode from the identified displacement response. The applicability of the technique is tested by an example problem using the real bridge's superstructure under several cases of moving load. If the reliability of the identified responses is ensured, it is expected that the proposed method for estimating the impact factor can be useful in the bridge's dynamic test. This method can be useful in those practical cases when the direct measurement of the displacement is difficult as in the dynamic studies of huge structure.

Estimation of Rockbolt Integrity by Using Non-Destructive Testing Techniques(I) -Numerical and Experimental of Applicability- (비파괴 시험기법을 이용한 록볼트의 건전도 평가(I) -수치해석 및 실험적 적용성 평가-)

  • Lee, Jong-Sub;Lee, Yong-Jun;Eom, Tae-Won;Han, Shin-In;Lee, In-Mo
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to describe the Non-Destructive Testing(NDT) of the rockbolt and investigate the applicability of the NDT methods to estimate the integrity of the rockbolt. To examine the rockbolt integrity including rockbolt itself and grouting material, two methods are adopted: numerical and experimental methods. In the numerical method, the numerical code DISPERSE is used to analyze the dispersion of the rockbolt. The dispersion curve shows the effects of the thickness and stiffness of grouted materials on the embedded rockbolt. Therefore, the optimal frequency for the integrity test of the rockbolt is obtained: 20~120kHz in L(1,0) mode. In the experimental methods, destructive and non-destructive tests are carried out in a laboratory. In the non-destructive test, the low frequency mode generated by an impact and t he high frequency mode generated by an ultrasonic transducer seem to characterize the rockbolt condition readily. The experimental results show that the guided waves attenuate more significantly when the stiffness of the grouted material increases and/or the zone of the defect increases. Meanwhile, the ultimate capacity of rockbolt was evaluated through the pull-out tests and is compared to the NDT results. This study demonstrates that the NDT is a valuable tool for the rockbolt integrity evaluation.

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A Study on Experimental Vibration pre-estimation Techniques of Structure (구조물의 실험적 진동예측 기술에 관한 연구)

  • 이홍기;권형오
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1992.10a
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    • pp.48-52
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    • 1992
  • 진동원을 가진 장비를 임의의 구조물에 설치할 경우 관심이 되는 문제는 구 조물의 임의의 위치에서의 진동 수준을 추정하는 일이다. 특히 정밀장비를 다루는 반도체 공장에서 크린룸이나, 정밀측정, 분석 실험실등 미진동을 제 어해야 하는 분야에서는 더욱 그 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 진동제어가 필요 한 공간에 대한 진동수준의 예측이 가능할 경우 진동윈이나 수진점(active and passive type)방진에서 최적화된 전달률(transmissibility)을 명확히 결정 할 수 있어 설계와 시행오차를 최소화 할 수 있다. 그러나 이러한 실제문제 를 다룰 경우 대부분 진동제어 구조물은 복잡하고 설치 운용되는 장비들은 대형, 복합장비가 사용되는 것이 일반적이고 수행기간도 여러가지 공정상 단 시간에 이루어져야 하는 현실적인 어려움이 있다. 진동제어가 필요한 구조물 에 대한 임의의 공간에서 진동수준을 신속하고 정확하게 예측하기 위해서는 최소한 두 가지 정보만이라도 명확히 해야 한다. 하나는 장비의 주파수별 정 확한 가진력의 산정이고 다른 하나는 장비가 설치되고 진동제어가 필요한 구조물에 대한 동적특성(dynamic property)이다. 가진력에 대한 정보는 일반 적으로 장비제작사가 제시하는 것이 원칙이나 그렇지 못할 경우 구조해석 기술자(structure engineer)가 해석적으로 추정하거나 또는 명확히 가진 특성 을 알지 못하는 복잡한 장비는 실험적으로 결정해야 한다. 구조물의 동적 특 성을 나타내는 모빌리티(mobility)를 구하는 방법은 해석적인 방법과 실험적 인 방법이 있으나 복합재료, 복잡한 구조형태나, 지지조건, 다양한 결합부의 동적 특성을 정의하여 해석적으로 정확히 해결하기에는 어려움이 있다. 이러 한 제한조건을 손쉽게 해결하는 방법은 실 구조물에 대한 동적실험(dynamic test)을 통하여 단기간에 동적특성을 결정하고 SDM(structure dynamic modification)이나 FRS(force response simulation)를 수행하여 임의의 좌표 공간에 대한 진동수준을 해석적으로 예측할 뿐만 아니라 구조물의 진동제어 를 위한 동적인자를 변경시킬 수 있는 정보를 제공하며 장비를 방진할 경우 신뢰성 있는 전달률을 결정할 수 있다. 실험적으로 철교, 교량이나 건물의 철골구조 및 2층 바닥 등 대,중형의 복잡한 구조물에 대항 동특성을 나타내 는 모빌리티를 결정할 경우 충격 가진 실험이 사용되는 실험장비 측면에서 나 실험을 수행하는 과정이 대체적으로 간편하다. 그러나 이 경우 대상 구조 물을 충분히 가진시킬수 있는 용량의 대형 충격기(large impact hammer)가 필요하게 된다. 이러한 동적실험은 약 길이 61m, 폭 16m의 4경간 교량에 대 하여 동적실험을 수행하여 가능성을 확인하였다. 여기서는 실험실 수준의 평 판모델을 제작하고 실제 현장에서 이루어질 수 있는 진동제어 구조물에 대 한 동적실험 및 FRS를 수행하는 과정과 동일하게 따름으로써 실제 발생할 수 있는 오차나 error를 실험실내의 차원에서 파악하여 진동원을 있는 구조 물에 대한 진동제어기술을 보유하고자 한다.

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A Study on the Stock Assessment and Management Implications of the Hairtail, Trichiurus lepturus Linne in Korean Waters 1. Estimation of Population Ecological Characteristics of the Hairtail, Trichiurus lepturus Linne in Korean Waters (한국 연근해 갈치의 자원평가 및 관리방안 연구 1. 한국 연근해 갈치의 자원생태학적 특성치 추정)

  • ZHANG Chang-Ik
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.567-577
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    • 1996
  • This study is to estimate population ecological parameters, including growth parameters, survival rates, instantaneous coefficients of natural and fishing mortalities, and age at first capture, as well as growth rates at age of the hairtail, Trichiurus lepturus Linne in Korean waters. For describing the growth of the hairtail, three growth models were fitted, and the von Bertalanffy growth model was adopted for the purpose of the further stock assessment work. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters estimated from a nonlinear regression using EXCEL Solver were $L_\infty=46.01cm$, K=0.3868, and $t_0=-0.3220$. Annual survival rate (S) of the hairtail was estimated to be 0.277 (variance=0.00035) and the instantaneous coefficient of natural mortality (M) was estimated to be 0.441/year. Instantaneous coefficient of fishing mortality (F) for the recent years was calculated as 0.843/year, implying an impact from fishing about two times greater than that of natural mortality. The age at first capture $(t_c)$ was estimated to be 0.787 years, which is much younger age than $50\%$ mature age. Finally, the growth rates at age were estimated.

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Estimation of PM10 Source Contributions on Three Cities in the Metropolitan Area by Using PMF Model (PMF 모델을 이용한 수도권 내 3개 도시에서의 PM10 오염원의 기여도 추정)

  • Lee, Tae-Jung;Huh, Jong-Bae;Yi, Seung-Muk;Kim, Shin-Do;Kim, Dong-Sool
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.275-288
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    • 2009
  • The Korean government strengthened the environmental polices to manage and enhance Metropolitan Area air quality, and also has enforced "Special Act on Seoul Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement (SASMAQI)" issued in Dec. 2004. Recently government expanded the Seoul Metropolitan Air Quality Management District (SMAQMD) to the outskirts satellite cities of Seoul area through the "Revised Law Draft of SASMAQI". The SMAQMD has been alloted the allowable emission loads to the local governments on the basis of the carrying $PM_{10}$ capacity. However, in order to establish the effective air quality control strategy for $PM_{10}$, it is necessary to understand the corresponding sources which have a potential to directly impact ambient $PM_{10}$ concentration. To deal with the situations, many receptor methodologies have been developed to identify the origins of pollutants and to determine the contributions of sources of interests. The objective of this study was to extensively identify $PM_{10}$ sources and to estimate their contributions at the metropolitan area. $PM_{10}$ samples were simultaneously collected at the 3 semi-industrialized local cities in the Seoul metropolitan area such as Hwasung-si, Paju-si, and Icheon-si sites from April 15 to May 31, 2007. The samples collected on the teflon membrane filter by one $PM_{10}$ cyclone sampler were analyzed for trace metals and soluble ions and samples on the quartz fiber filter by another sampler were analyzed for OC and EC. Source apportionment study was then performed by using a positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor model. A total of 6 sources were identified and their contributions were estimated in each monitoring site. Contribution results on Hwasung, Paju, and Icheon sites were as follows: 33%, 27%, and 27% from soil source, 26%, 26%, and 21% from secondary aerosol source, 11%, 11%, and 12% from biomass burning, 12%, 6%, and 5% from sea salt, 7%, 15%, and 19% from industrial related source, and finally 11%, 15%, and 16% from mobile and oil complex source, respectively. This study provides information on the major sources affecting air quality in the receptor sites and thus it will help to manage the ambient air quality in the metropolitan area by establishing reasonable control strategies, especially for the anthropogenic emission sources.

A Korean Community-based Question Answering System Using Multiple Machine Learning Methods (다중 기계학습 방법을 이용한 한국어 커뮤니티 기반 질의-응답 시스템)

  • Kwon, Sunjae;Kim, Juae;Kang, Sangwoo;Seo, Jungyun
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.43 no.10
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    • pp.1085-1093
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    • 2016
  • Community-based Question Answering system is a system which provides answers for each question from the documents uploaded on web communities. In order to enhance the capacity of question analysis, former methods have developed specific rules suitable for a target region or have applied machine learning to partial processes. However, these methods incur an excessive cost for expanding fields or lead to cases in which system is overfitted for a specific field. This paper proposes a multiple machine learning method which automates the overall process by adapting appropriate machine learning in each procedure for efficient processing of community-based Question Answering system. This system can be divided into question analysis part and answer selection part. The question analysis part consists of the question focus extractor, which analyzes the focused phrases in questions and uses conditional random fields, and the question type classifier, which classifies topics of questions and uses support vector machine. In the answer selection part, the we trains weights that are used by the similarity estimation models through an artificial neural network. Also these are a number of cases in which the results of morphological analysis are not reliable for the data uploaded on web communities. Therefore, we suggest a method that minimizes the impact of morphological analysis by using character features in the stage of question analysis. The proposed system outperforms the former system by showing a Mean Average Precision criteria of 0.765 and R-Precision criteria of 0.872.

A Study on the Profitability of the Commercial Bank in Terms of Interest Rate Marketization : Based on FMOLS Model (FMOLS 모형을 이용한 상업은행 수익성에 대한 연구 : 금리 시장화의 시각에서)

  • He, Yugang
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.9 no.8
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - As an important participant in the financial markets, the commercial bank will be impacted by the interest rate marketization. Owing to the special condition of China, this paper tries to explore the impact of operating mechanisms between interest rate marketization and the profitability of the commercial Bank. Research design, data and methodology - This paper applies time series data from 2005 to 2016. Due to the short period of time series, autocorrelation often occurs. Therefore, the fully modified least squares(FMOLS) will be used to conduct an empirical analysis. The reason is that it can move off the autocorrelation between variables and disturbance term. And FMOLS also can make estimated cointegrating parameters closed to normal distribution. More importantly, in order to avoid spurious regressions, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test will be used to verify the stationarity of all variables. The total return of asset is treated as the profitability of commercial bank. The net interest spread is treated as a measurement of interest rate marketization. Both are regarded as dependent variables. The non-interest income or gross revenues and impaired loans or gross loans are treated as independent variables. The sixteen representative listed commercial banks are divided into three categories (state-owned, share-holding and city-owned) to conduct an estimation. Results - Via empirical analysis, the findings show that the net interest spread has a positive effect on the profitability of the commercial bank. More specifically, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.157% increase in the profitability of state-owned commercial bank, 0.269% increase in the profitability of share-holding commercial bank and 0.263% increase in the profitability of city-owned commercial bank. If regarding the sixteen listed commercial city as a whole, 1% increase in the net interest spread will lead 0.267% increase in the profitability of the commercial bank. Conclusions - As the interest rate marketization, the importance of interest rate on the profitability of commercial bank has become more and more significant. The empirical evidences also prove that the net interest spread can bring about the change of the commercial bank's profitability. Therefore, policy-makers of commercial banks should fully understand the operating mechanism between them.