• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact based forecasting

Search Result 109, Processing Time 0.033 seconds

Analysis of Impact of Hydrologic Data on Neuro-Fuzzy Technique Result (수문자료가 Neuro-Fuzzy 기법 결과에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Ji, Jungwon;Choi, Changwon;Yi, Jaeeung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1413-1424
    • /
    • 2013
  • Recently, the frequency of severe storms increases in Korea. Severe storms occurring in a short time cause huge losses of both life and property. A considerable research has been performed for the flood control system development based on an accurate stream discharge prediction. A physical model is mainly used for flood forecasting and warning. Physical rainfall-runoff models used for the conventional flood forecasting process require extensive information and data, and include uncertainties which can possibly accumulate errors during modelling processes. ANFIS, a data driven model combining neural network and fuzzy technique, can decrease the amount of physical data required for the construction of a conventional physical models and easily construct and evaluate a flood forecasting model by utilizing only rainfall and water level data. A data driven model, however, has a disadvantage that it does not provide the mathematical and physical correlations between input and output data of the model. The characteristics of a data driven model according to functional options and input data such as the change of clustering radius and training data length used in the ANFIS model were analyzed in this study. In addition, the applicability of ANFIS was evaluated through comparison with the results of HEC-HMS which is widely used for rainfall-runoff model in Korea. The neuro-fuzzy technique was applied to a Cheongmicheon Basin in the South Han River using the observed precipitation and stream level data from 2007 to 2011.

A Study on the Conceptual Design of Integrated Management System for Public SW Project Information (공공 소프트웨어(SW) 사업정보 통합 관리체계의 개념적 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Kitae;Park, Chankwon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.199-216
    • /
    • 2019
  • The public SW market is 3 trillion won, which is less than 10% of the total SW market. However, due to the nature of the domestic market, it is an important market with a relatively large impact on small and medium-sized software companies. In this market, government is operating the Public SW Project Demand Forecasting System in order to support the marketing activities of small and medium sized SW companies and establish a fair market order. The current system has limitations such as lack of user convenience, insufficient analysis capability and less business connection. This study was conducted to identify the problems of these systems and to propose a new system for improving the convenience of users and expanding the information utilization of SMEs. To this end, we analyzed the requirements of each stakeholder. We proposed the 2-phased forecasting cycle, the management cycle, and the system life cycle of public SW projects and created a unified identifier (UID) so that the information of those projects can be identified and linked among them. As a result, an integrated reference model of project information management based on system life cycle was developed, which can explain the demand forecasting and project information, and the improved processes was also designed to implement them. Through the result of this study, it is expected that integrated management of public SW projects will be possible.

Tour-based Personalized Trip Analysis and Calibration Method for Activity-based Traffic Demand Modelling (활동기반 교통수요 모델링을 위한 투어기반 통행분석 및 보정방안)

  • Yegi Yoo;Heechan Kang;Seungmo Yoo;Taeho Oh
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.32-48
    • /
    • 2023
  • Autonomous driving technology is shaping the future of personalized travel, encouraging personalized travel, and traffic impact could be influenced by individualized travel behavior during the transition of driving entity from human to machine. In order to evaluate traffic impact, it is necessary to estimate the total number of trips based on an understanding of individual travel characteristics. The Activity-based model(ABM), which allows for the reflection of individual travel characteristics, deals with all travel sequences of an individual. Understanding the relationship between travel and travel must be important for assessing traffic impact using ABM. However, the ABM has a limitation in the data hunger model. It is difficult to adjust in the actual demand forecasting. Therefore, we utilized a Tour-based model that can explain the relationship between travels based on household travel survey data instead. After that, vehicle registration and population data were used for correction. The result showed that, compared to the KTDB one, the traffic generation exhibited a 13% increase in total trips and approximately 9% reduction in working trips, valid within an acceptable margin of error. As a result, it can be used as a generation correction method based on Tour, which can reflect individual travel characteristics, prior to building an activity-based model to predict demand due to the introduction of autonomous vehicles in terms of road operation, which is the ultimate goal of this study.

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Selecting Promising Technologies for R&D based on Time-series Patent Analysis (R&D 기술 선정을 위한 시계열 특허 분석 기반 지능형 의사결정지원시스템)

  • Lee, Choongseok;Lee, Suk Joo;Choi, Byounggu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.18 no.3
    • /
    • pp.79-96
    • /
    • 2012
  • As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2, ${\cdots}$) as input variables. The out variables are values of five indexes at time t, which is used for learning. The learning method adopted in this study is backpropagation algorithm. In the third module, this study recommends final promising technologies based on analytic hierarchy process. AHP provides relative importance of each index, leading to final promising index for technology. Applicability of the proposed methodology is tested by using U.S. patents in international patent class G06F (i.e., electronic digital data processing) from 2000 to 2008. The results show that mean absolute error value for prediction produced by the proposed methodology is lower than the value produced by multiple regression analysis in cases of fusion indexes. However, mean absolute error value of the proposed methodology is slightly higher than the value of multiple regression analysis. These unexpected results may be explained, in part, by small number of patents. Since this study only uses patent data in class G06F, number of sample patent data is relatively small, leading to incomplete learning to satisfy complex artificial intelligence structure. In addition, fusion index per technology and impact index are found to be important criteria to predict promising technology. This study attempts to extend the existing knowledge by proposing a new methodology for prediction technology value by integrating patent information analysis and artificial intelligence network. It helps managers who want to technology develop planning and policy maker who want to implement technology policy by providing quantitative prediction methodology. In addition, this study could help other researchers by proving a deeper understanding of the complex technological forecasting field.

Analysis of Heavy Rain Hazard Risk Based on Local Heavy Rain Characteristics and Hazard Impact (지역 호우특성과 재해영향을 고려한 호우재해위험도 분석)

  • Yoon, Jun-Seong;Koh, June-Hwan
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
    • /
    • v.47 no.1
    • /
    • pp.37-51
    • /
    • 2017
  • Despite the improvement in accuracy of heavy rain forecasting, socioeconomic costs due to heavy rain hazards continue to increase. This is due to a lack of understanding of the effects of weather. In this study, the risk of heavy rain hazard was analyzed using the concepts of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, which are key concepts of impact forecast presented by WMO. The potential impacts were constructed by the exposure and vulnerability variables, and the hazard index was calculated by selecting three variables according to the criteria of heavy rain warning. Weights of the potential impact index were calculated by using PCA and hazard index was calculated by applying the same weight. Correlation analysis between the potential impact index and damages showed a high correlation and it was confirmed that the potential impact index appropriately reflects the actual damage pattern. The heavy rain hazard risk was estimated by using the risk matrix consisting of the heavy rain potential impact index and the hazard index. This study provides a basis for the impacts analysis study for weather warning with spatial/temporal variation and it can be used as a useful data to establish the local heavy rain hazard prevention measures.

Forecasting COVID-19 Transmission and Healthcare Capacity in Bali, Indonesia

  • Wirawan, I Md Ady;Januraga, Pande Putu
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
    • /
    • v.53 no.3
    • /
    • pp.158-163
    • /
    • 2020
  • Objectives: In the current early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Bali needs to prepare to face the escalation of cases, with a particular focus on the readiness of healthcare services. We simulated the future trajectory of the epidemic under current conditions, projected the impact of policy interventions, and analyzed the implications for healthcare capacity. Methods: Our study was based on the first month of publicly accessible data on new confirmed daily cases. A susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 was employed to compare the current dynamics of the disease with those predicted under various scenarios. Results: The fitted model for the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Bali indicated an effective reproduction number of 1.4. Interventions have decreased the possible maximum number of cases from 71 125 on day 86 to 22 340 on day 119, and have prolonged the doubling time from about 9 days to 21 days. This corresponds to an approximately 30% reduction in transmissions from cases of mild infections. There will be 2780 available hospital beds, and at the peak (on day 132), the number of severe cases is estimated to be roughly 6105. Of these cases, 1831 will need intensive care unit (ICU) beds, whereas the number of currently available ICU beds is roughly 446. Conclusions: The healthcare system in Bali is in danger of collapse; thus, serious efforts are needed to improve COVID-19 interventions and to prepare the healthcare system in Bali to the greatest extent possible.

An LSTM Neural Network Model for Forecasting Daily Peak Electric Load of EV Charging Stations (EV 충전소의 일별 최대전력부하 예측을 위한 LSTM 신경망 모델)

  • Lee, Haesung;Lee, Byungsung;Ahn, Hyun
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
    • /
    • v.21 no.5
    • /
    • pp.119-127
    • /
    • 2020
  • As the electric vehicle (EV) market in South Korea grows, it is required to expand charging facilities to respond to rapidly increasing EV charging demand. In order to conduct a comprehensive facility planning, it is necessary to forecast future demand for electricity and systematically analyze the impact on the load capacity of facilities based on this. In this paper, we design and develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network model that predicts the daily peak electric load at each charging station using the EV charging data of KEPCO. First, we obtain refined data through data preprocessing and outlier removal. Next, our model is trained by extracting daily features per charging station and constructing a training set. Finally, our model is verified through performance analysis using a test set for each charging station type, and the limitations of our model are discussed.

The gene expression programming method for estimating compressive strength of rocks

  • Ibrahim Albaijan;Daria K. Voronkova;Laith R. Flaih;Meshel Q. Alkahtani;Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Adil Hussein Mohammed
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.36 no.5
    • /
    • pp.465-474
    • /
    • 2024
  • Uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) is a critical geomechanical parameter that plays a significant role in the evaluation of rocks. The practice of indirectly estimating said characteristics is widespread due to the challenges associated with obtaining high-quality core samples. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the feasibility of utilizing the gene expression programming (GEP) technique for the purpose of forecasting the UCS for various rock categories, including Schist, Granite, Claystone, Travertine, Sandstone, Slate, Limestone, Marl, and Dolomite, which were sourced from a wide range of quarry sites. The present study utilized a total of 170 datasets, comprising Schmidt hammer (SH), porosity (n), point load index (Is(50)), and P-wave velocity (Vp), as the effective parameters in the model to determine their impact on the UCS. The UCS parameter was computed through the utilization of the GEP model, resulting in the generation of an equation. Subsequently, the efficacy of the GEP model and the resultant equation were assessed using various statistical evaluation metrics to determine their predictive capabilities. The outcomes indicate the prospective capacity of the GEP model and the resultant equation in forecasting the unconfined compressive strength (UCS). The significance of this study lies in its ability to enable geotechnical engineers to make estimations of the UCS of rocks, without the requirement of conducting expensive and time-consuming experimental tests. In particular, a user-friendly program was developed based on the GEP model to enable rapid and very accurate calculation of rock's UCS, doing away with the necessity for costly and time-consuming laboratory experiments.

A mathematical spatial interpolation method for the estimation of convective rainfall distribution over small watersheds

  • Zhang, Shengtang;Zhang, Jingzhou;Liu, Yin;Liu, Yuanchen
    • Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.21 no.3
    • /
    • pp.226-232
    • /
    • 2016
  • Rainfall is one of crucial factors that impact on our environment. Rainfall data is important in water resources management, flood forecasting, and designing hydraulic structures. However, it is not available in some rural watersheds without rain gauges. Thus, effective ways of interpolating the available records are needed. Despite many widely used spatial interpolation methods, few studies have investigated rainfall center characteristics. Based on the theory that the spatial distribution of convective rainfall event has a definite center with maximum rainfall, we present a mathematical interpolation method to estimate convective rainfall distribution and indicate the rainfall center location and the center rainfall volume. We apply the method to estimate three convective rainfall events in Santa Catalina Island where reliable hydrological data is available. A cross-validation technique is used to evaluate the method. The result shows that the method will suffer from high relative error in two situations: 1) when estimating the minimum rainfall and 2) when estimating an external site. For all other situations, the method's performance is reasonable and acceptable. Since the method is based on a continuous function, it can provide distributed rainfall data for distributed hydrological model sand indicate statistical characteristics of given areas via mathematical calculation.

Symptom-based reliability analyses and performance assessment of corroded reinforced concrete structures

  • Chen, Hua-Peng;Xiao, Nan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
    • /
    • v.53 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1183-1200
    • /
    • 2015
  • Reinforcement corrosion can cause serious safety deterioration to aging concrete structures exposed in aggressive environments. This paper presents an approach for reliability analyses of deteriorating reinforced concrete structures affected by reinforcement corrosion on the basis of the representative symptoms identified during the deterioration process. The concrete cracking growth and rebar bond strength evolution due to reinforcement corrosion are chosen as key symptoms for the performance deterioration of concrete structures. The crack width at concrete cover surface largely depends on the corrosion penetration of rebar due to the expansive rust layer at the bond interface generated by reinforcement corrosion. The bond strength of rebar in the concrete correlates well with concrete crack width and decays steadily with crack width growth. The estimates of cracking development and bond strength deterioration are examined by experimental data available from various sources, and then matched with symptom-based lifetime Weibull model. The symptom reliability and remaining useful life are predicted from the predictive lifetime Weibull model for deteriorating concrete structures. Finally, a numerical example is provided to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach for forecasting the performance of concrete structures subject to reinforcement corrosion. The results show that the corrosion rate has significant impact on the reliability associated with serviceability and load bearing capacity of reinforced concrete structures during their service life.