• Title/Summary/Keyword: Impact Prediction

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Integrated Algorithm for Identification of Long Range Artillery Type and Impact Point Prediction With IMM Filter (IMM 필터를 이용한 장사정포의 탄종 분리 및 탄착점 예측 통합 알고리즘)

  • Jung, Cheol-Goo;Lee, Chang-Hun;Tahk, Min-Jea;Yoo, Dong-Gil;Sohn, Sung-Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.531-540
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we present an algorithm that identifies artillery type and rapidly predicts the impact point based on the IMM filter. The ballistic trajectory equation is used as a system model, and three models with different ballistic coefficient values are used. Acceleration was divided into three components of gravity, air resistance, and lift. And lift acceleration was added as a new state variable. The kinematic condition that the velocity vector and lift acceleration are perpendicular was used as a pseudo-measurement value. The impact point was predicted based on the state variable estimated through the IMM filter and the ballistic coefficient of the model with the highest mode probability. Instead of the commonly used Runge-Kutta numerical integration for impact point prediction, a semi-analytic method was used to predict impact point with a small amount of calculation. Finally, a state variable initialization method using the least-square method was proposed. An integrated algorithm including artillery type identification, impact point prediction and initialization was presented, and the validity of the proposed method was verified through simulation.

Prediction and Response of Ship`s Hull Girder for Slamming - On The Impact Force of Foreward Flat Bottom Plate - (Slamming에 관한 선체의 응답과 예측 - 전부선저의 충격적 중심으로 -)

  • Hong, Bong-Ki;Kim, Sa-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.96-104
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    • 1984
  • This paper is on the prediction and response of the ship hull girder due to slamming of foreward flat bottom plate. The response with respect to foreward flat bottom is divided two kinds by estimating method. One is the estimation of impact forces by slamming, Another is the response of hull girder due to impact forces, that is, displacement, velocity, acceleration, etc. must calculate the values for considered ship hull girder. In this paper, therefore, was estimated only impact forces along ship ordinate of foreward. The analysis of data for estimation followed mainly papers of Ochi. These estimated data shall contribute for ship gull construction for basic optimum design. In particular, the estimated impact forces shall be given for the response of ship gull girder on the foreward flat bottom plate with characteristics of external forces.

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Impact of Snow Depth Initialization on Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia for Winter Season (겨울철 동아시아 지역 기온의 계절 예측에 눈깊이 초기화가 미치는 영향)

  • Woo, Sung-Ho;Jeong, Jee-Hoon;Kim, Baek-Min;Kim, Seong-Joong
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.117-128
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    • 2012
  • Does snow depth initialization have a quantitative impact on sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction skill? To answer this question, a snow depth initialization technique for seasonal forecast system has been implemented and the impact of the initialization on the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature during the wintertime is examined. Since the snow depth observation can not be directly used in the model simulation due to the large systematic bias and much smaller model variability, an anomaly rescaling method to the snow depth initialization is applied. Snow depth in the model is initialized by adding a rescaled snow depth observation anomaly to the model snow depth climatology. A suite of seasonal forecast is performed for each year in recent 12 years (1999-2010) with and without the snow depth initialization to evaluate the performance of the developed technique. The results show that the seasonal forecast of surface air temperature over East Asian region sensitively depends on the initial snow depth anomaly over the region. However, the sensitivity shows large differences for different timing of the initialization and forecast lead time. Especially, the snow depth anomaly initialized in the late winter (Mar. 1) is the most effective in modulating the surface air temperature anomaly after one month. The real predictability gained by the snow depth initialization is also examined from the comparison with observation. The gain of the real predictability is generally small except for the forecasting experiment in the early winter (Nov. 1), which shows some skillful forecasts. Implications of these results and future directions for further development are discussed.

An impact of meteorological Initial field and data assimilation on CMAQ ozone prediction in the Seoul Metropolitan Area during June, 2007 (기상 모델의 초기장 및 자료동화 차이에 따른 수도권 지역의 CMAQ 오존 예측 결과 - 2007년 6월 수도권 고농도 오존 사례 연구 -)

  • Lee, Dae-Gyun;Lee, Mi-Hyang;Lee, Yong-Mi;Yoo, Chul;Hong, Sung-Chul;Jang, Kee-Won;Hong, Ji-Hyung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.609-626
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    • 2013
  • Air quality models have been widely used to study and simulate many air quality issues. In the simulation, it is important to raise the accuracy of meteorological predicted data because the results of air quality modeling is deeply connected with meteorological fields. Therefore in this study, we analyzed the effects of meteorological fields on the air quality simulation. This study was designed to evaluate MM5 predictions by using different initial condition data and different observations utilized in the data assimilation. Among meteorological scenarios according to these input data, the results of meteorological simulation using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (Final) Operational Global Analysis data were in closer agreement with the observations and resulted in better prediction on ozone concentration. And in Seoul, observations from Regional Meteorological Office for data assimilations of MM5 were suitable to predict ozone concentration. In other areas, data assimilation using both observations from Regional Meteorological Office and Automatical Weather System provided valid method to simulate the trends of meteorological fields and ozone concentrations. However, it is necessary to vertify the accuracy of AWS data in advance because slightly overestimated wind speed used in the data assimilation with AWS data could result in underestimation of high ozone concentrations.

Low-Level Wind Shear (LLWS) Forecasts at Jeju International Airport using the KMAPP (고해상도 KMAPP 자료를 활용한 제주국제공항에서 저층 윈드시어 예측)

  • Min, Byunghoon;Kim, Yeon-Hee;Choi, Hee-Wook;Jeong, Hyeong-Se;Kim, Kyu-Rang;Kim, Seungbum
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.277-291
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    • 2020
  • Low-level wind shear (LLWS) events on glide path at Jeju International Airport (CJU) are evaluated using the Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR) and Korea Meteorological Administration Post-Processing (KMAPP) with 100 m spatial resolution. LLWS that occurs in the complex terrains such as Mt. Halla on the Jeju Island affects directly aircraft approaching to and/or departing from the CJU. For this reason, accurate prediction of LLWS events is important in the CJU. Therefore, the use of high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-based forecasts is necessary to cover and resolve these small-scale LLWS events. The LLWS forecasts based on the KMAPP along the glide paths heading to the CJU is developed and evaluated using the AMDAR observation data. The KMAPP-LLWS developed in this paper successfully detected the moderate-or-greater wind shear (strong than 5 knots per 100 feet) occurred on the glide paths at CJU. In particular, this wind shear prediction system showed better performance than conventional 1-D column-based wind shear forecast.

Prediction of Concrete Strength Using Multiple Neural Networks (다중 신경망을 이용한 콘크리트 강도 추정)

  • 이승창;임재홍
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2002.10a
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    • pp.647-652
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    • 2002
  • In the previous study, authors presented the I-ProConS (Intelligent PREdiction system of CONcrete Strength) using artificial neural networks (ANN) that provides in-place strength information of the concrete to facilitate concrete form removal and scheduling for construction. The serious problem of the system has occured, which it cannot appropriately predict the concrete strength when the curing temperature of a curing day is changed. This is because it uses the single neural networks, which all nodes are fully connected, and thus it cannot smoothly respond for external impact. However this paper presents that the problem can be solved by multiple neural networks, which is composed of five ANNs.

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Prediction of Railroad Noise (철도소음의 예측)

  • 강대준
    • Journal of KSNVE
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    • v.7 no.6
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    • pp.1001-1006
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    • 1997
  • Railroad noise is one of the main causes of environmental impact. Whenever a new railroad line is planned or a housing project near an existing railroad is proposed, an estimate of the relevant noise levels is usually required. For this, it is necessary to quantify those paramters that affect the railroad noise. This paper presents an accurate prediction of railroad noise.

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Prediction of Aircraft Noise (항공기소음 예측)

  • 강대준
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.728-734
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    • 1998
  • Aircraft noise is one of the main causes of environmental impact. It is more serious than any other noise nuisance. It has become an increasing source of annoyance to the large number of people who live in communities near airports. This paper demonstrates the prediction of aircraft noise using Integrated Noise Model(INM) 5.1 developed by U.S. FAA and aircraft noise contour map near airports.

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PREDICTION OF RAILROAD NOISE (철도소음의 예측)

  • 강대준;정일록
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 1994.10a
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    • pp.92-95
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    • 1994
  • Railroad noise is one of the main causes of environmental impact. Whenever a new railroad line is planned or a housing project near an existing railroad is proposed, an estimate of the relevant levels is usually required. For this, it is necessary to quantify those parameters that affect the railroad noise. This paper presents an accurate prediction of railroad noise.

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Collision prediction and detection in a dynamic environment (동적 환경하에서의 충돌 예측 및 감지)

  • 한인환;양우석
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1992.10a
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    • pp.309-314
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    • 1992
  • Many dynamic mechanical systems, such as parts-feeders, walking machines, and percussive power tools, are described by equations of motion which are discontinuous. The discontinuities result from kinematic constraint changes which are difficult to foresee, especially in presence of impact. A simulation algorithm for these types of systems must be able to algorithmically predict and detect the kinematic constraint changes without any prior knowledge of the system's motion. This paper presents a rule-based approach to the prediction and detection of kinematic constraint changes between bodies with arc and line boundaries. The developed algorithm's ability to accurately and automatically detect the unpredicted changes of kinematic constraints is demonstrated with a numerical example.

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