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Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Myeong-Kyun;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.59-77
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    • 2012
  • This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

The Effect of the Simple Fogarty Thromboembolectomy (단순 Fogarty 혈전색전 제거술의 효과)

  • Oh, Joong-Hwan;Park, Il-Hwan;Lee, Chong-Kookk
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.480-486
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    • 2009
  • Background: The Fogarty thromboembolectomy catheter technique was devised to extract distal arterial emboli and it represents a milestone for the treatment of patients with acute arterial occlusion since the 1960s. The major causes of arterial occlusion have changed from emboli of a heart origin to atherosclerosis over the past 30 years. Accordingly, questions have been raised about the effectiveness of simple Fogarty thromboembolectomy. Material and Method: During the period from March 1990 through August 2008, 156 patients who requiring Fogarty thromboembolectomy were analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups: those with simple Fogarty thromboembolectomy (Group 1, 79 patients) and those with additional vascular bypass graft surgery (Group 2, 77 patients). The duration of symptoms, the cause of thrombi, admission via the emergency room, a history of acupuncture or misdiagnosis, combined diseases, the anatomic occlusion site and the cause of death were analyzed using T-tests, cross tab tests, Chi square tests and Kaplan-Meier tests, respectively. Result: The mean age was 64$\pm$10 years in the 2 groups. The duration of symptoms (pain) in Group 1 vs Group 2 was 12$\pm$4 days vs 71$\pm$14 days (p=0.001). 50 (63%) patients in Group 1 were admitted via the emergency room vs 18 (23%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.005). Misdiagnosis and the treatment for herniated intervertebral disc or acupuncture were given to, 20 (25%) patients in Group 1 vs 30 (39%) patients in Group 2. Anticoagulation treatment before admission was performed in 22 (28%) patients in Group 1 vs 11 (14%) patients in Group 2. The causes of thrombi were heart disease in, 24 (30%) patients in Group 1 vs 6 (8%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.001), atherosclerosis in 46 (58%) patients in Group 1 vs 67 (87%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.001) and trauma in 9 (11%) patients in Group 1 vs 6 (8%) patients in Group 2. The combined diseases were cerebrovascular accident, hypertension and diabetes mellitus in 22 $\sim$ 37% of the total patients. The occlusion sites were mainly in the iliac and femoral arteries. Endarterectomy was performed in 7 (9%) patients in Group 1 vs 18 (23%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.012). Treatment was successful in 27 (34%) patients in Group 1 and in 40 (52%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.019). Reocclusion occurred in 37(47%) patients in Group 1 vs 20 (26%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.000), Amputation was done in 4 (5%) patients in Group 1 vs 12 (16%) patients in Group 2 (p=0.012) and death occurred in 10 (13%) patients (Group 1) vs 3(4%) patients (Group 2) (p=0.044). Conclusion: The recent past has shown a decline in the effectiveness of simple Fogarty thromboembolectomy with a changing pattern of acute arterial occlusion from a rheumatic heart origin to atherosclerosis. Additional bypass procedures play a role for the treatment of arterial occlusion instead of always performing simple Fogarty thromboembolectomy.

Morphological Studies on the Ear Characters of Korean Indigenous Corn Lines (한국 재래종 옥수수 이삭에 관한 형태적 고찰)

  • Lee, In-seop
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.215-228
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    • 1977
  • In order to provide good germplasm for developing good corn hybrids, a total of 948 Korean indigenous corn lines were collected from various parts of country and major morphological characterstics of ears were investigated. The results obtained were as follows; 1) Ear Type; From the east-north mountaionus region where more than 80% of total corn production is practiced, cylinder (type I) or similar types to cylinder corn were collected, and from the southern plain region, where rather small scales of corn is grown, cone type (type IV) or similar types to cone were prevalent. 2) Kernel color; In the ear colors of all the indigenous corn lines collected from ten regions, ears with mono color were 54.4%, ears with two color mixed were 39.0% and ears with three or more color mixed were 6.6%. In northern mountainous region, region A and region I, ear color was mostly white or white plus other colors, while in other regions ear color was yellow or yellow plus other colors. 3) Denting; Dent type was only 4.3% of Korean indigenous corn lines collected, and others were flint type. Dent type was collected from northern regions, where foreign corn varieties were introduced and grown. 4) Ear row number; Ear row numbers of indigenous corn lines collected were 12 to 16. There was no significant differences among the ear row numbers in a ear ciassified by regions. However, it was observed that ear row number was closely related to kernel size. For instance, the ears with 24 ear-rows were the smallest in kernel size. 5) Quality of starch; 70.9% of the indigenous corn lines collected were kernels with hard starch. Corn with soft starch was 26.0% and medium type was 3.1%. In region A and region I, where lot of corn is grown, corn with hard starch was more frequently collected. 6) Pop corn and waxy corn; In all the indigenous corn lines collected, popcorn was distributed uniformly through the regions except region I, and waxy corn was found more in the northern mountainous region. 7) Ear length; The mean ear length of indigenous corn lines collected was 13cm. In region A and region I ear length was larger than that in other regions. 8) Ear diameter; The mean ear diameter of indigenous corn lines collected was 3.3cm. In region A and region I ear diameter was larger than that in other regions. 9) Kernel length, kernel width and kernel thickness; The mean kernel length, kernel width and kernel thickness of indigenous corn lines collected were 0.82cm, 0.42cm, and 0.78cm, respectively. The kernel size in the region A and region I was larger than that in other regions. 10) Ear weight; The mean ear weight of indigenous corn lines collected was 58.04gr. Ear weight was remarkably heavier in region A and region I. The heaviest ear weighed 330gr, and the lightest ear weighed 5 gr. 11) Kernel weight of a ear and 100 kernel weight; Kernel weight of a ear and 100 kernel of indigenous corn lines collected were 47.07gr and 15.07gr, respectively. Kernel weights and 100 kernel weights were much heavier in region A and region I than other regions.

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The Mechanism of Interferon-$\gamma$ Induced Cytotoxicity on the Lung Cancer Cell Line, A549 (인터페론감마에 의한 A549 폐암세포주 세포독성의 기전)

  • Oh, Yeon-Mok;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Chung, Hee-Soon;Kim, Young-Whan;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 1996
  • Background: Interferon-$\gamma$ has various biologic effects, including antiviral effect, antitumor proliferative effect, activation of macrophage and B lymphocyte, and increased expression of major histocompatibility complex. Especially, antitumor proliferative effect of interferon-$\gamma$ has already been proved to be important in vivo as well as in vitro. And, clinical studies of interferon-$\gamma$ have been tried in lung cancer patients. However, the mechanism of antitumor effect of interferon-$\gamma$ has not yet been established despite of many hypotheses. "Necrosis" is a type of cell death which is well known to occur in the circumstances of severe stresses. In contrast, "apoptosis" is another type of cell death which occurs in such biological circumstances as embryonic development, regression of organs, and self-tolerance of lymphocytes. And, apoptosis is an active process of cell death in which cells are dying with fragmentations of their cytoplasms and nuclei. And, in the process of apoptosis the DNAs of cells are cleaved between nucleosomes by unidentified endonuclease and therefore DNAs of apoptotic cells result in a typical electrophoresis pattern known as DNA ladder pattern. Recently it has been suggested that cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ occurs via apoptosis. To elucidate the mechanism of antitumor cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$, we microscopically observed a lung cancer cell line, A549 which was treated with interferon-$\gamma$. We observed A545 treated with interferon-$\gamma$ was dying fragmented. And so, we performed this study to find out that the mechanism of antitumor cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ be apoptosis. Method: We treated A549, human lung cancer cell line with various concentration of interferon-$\gamma$ and quantified its cytotoxic effect of various periods, 24 hours, 72 hours and, 120 hours by MTT(dimethylthiazolyl diphenyltetrazolium bromide) bioassay. Also, after we treated A549 with 100 units/mi of interferon-$\gamma$ for 120 hours, we observed the pattern of cell death with inverted microscope and we extracted DNAs from the dead A549 cells and observed the pattern of 1.5% agarose gel electrophoresis with ethidium bromide staining. Result: 1) Cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ on A549: For the first 24 hours, threre was little cytotoxic effect and for between 24 hours and 72 hours, there was the beginning of cytotoxic effect and for 120 hours there was increased cytotoxic effect. 2) Pattern of A549 cell death by interferon-$\gamma$: We observed with inverted microscope that A549 cells were dying fragmented. 3) DNA ladder pattern of gel electrophoresis: We observed DNA ladder pattern of gel electrophoresis of extracted DNAs from dead A549 cells. Conclusion: We concluded that the mechanism of interferon-$\gamma$induced cytotoxicity on lung cancer cell line, A549 be via apoptosis.

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Correlation Between Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme(ACE) Inhibitor Induced Dry Cough and ACE Gene Insertion/Deletion(I/D) Polymorphism (안지오텐신 전환효소 억제제에 의한 건성 기침의 발생과 안지오텐신 전환효소 유전자 다형성과의 관계)

  • Kim, Je-Hyeong;Jeong, Hye-Cheol;Kim, Kyung-Kyu;Lee, Sung-Yong;Kwon, Young-Hwan;Lee, So-Ra;Lee, Sang-Youb;Lee, Sin-Hyung;Cha, Dae-Ryong;Cho, Jae-Youn;Shim, Jae-Jeong;Cho, Won-Yong;Kang, Kyung-Ho;Kim, Hyoung-Kyu;Yoo, Se-Hwa;In, Kwang-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 1999
  • Background: Persistent nonproductive cough is a major adverse effect encountered with ACE inhibitor treatment and the most frequent reason for withdrawal of the drug. The mechanism of cough was postulated to be associated with accumulation of bronchial irritants which are substrates of ACE. It has been speculated that occurrence of this adverse effect is genetically predetermined ; in particular, variants of the genes encoding ACE. To investigate this relationship, we determined ACE gene Insertion/Deletion polymorphism in subjects with and without a history of ACE inhibitor-induced cough. Methods: Among the 339 patients with ACE inhibitor treatment, subjects who developed cough that resolved when not taking medication were designated to cough group and other subjects who did not complain cough were designated to non-cough group. Clinical characteristics of the patients were collected by review of medical records. ACE genotypes were determined by PCR amplification of DNA from peripheral blood and agarose gel electrophoresis. Results: 37 patients complained of dry cough(cough group) and 302 patients did not complained of cough(non-cough group). The incidence of ACE inhibitor induced dry cough was 10.9%. There was a preponderance of females in the cough group (M : F=24.3% : 75.7%) compared to the non-cough group (M : F=49.7% : 50.3%, p=0.004). There was no significant difference in mean age, underlying diseases, and kinds and frequencies of ACE inhibitors and their mean dosage between the both groups. ACE genotypic frequencies were I/I : I/D : D/D=16.2% : 18.9% : 64.9% in the cough group and 18.9% : 18.2% : 62.9% in the non-cough group which showed no significant difference between the both groups(p=0.926). Allelic frequencies were I : D = 25.7% : 74.3% and 28.0% : 72.0% in the cough and non-cough group respectively and the difference was not significant(p = 0.676). Conclusion: The incidence of ACE inhibitor-induced cough are 10.9%, and women are more susceptible to ACE inhibitor-induced cough. ACE inhibitor-induced dry cough is not associated with ACE gene Insertion/Deletion polymorphism.

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Effect of Flywheel Weight on Engine Performance for the Small Diesel Engine (Flywheel의 중량(重量)이 소형(小型) 디젤기관(機關)의 성능(性能)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Jung, Hae Kook;Kim, Sung Rai;Myung, Byung Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 1988
  • This study was conducted to obtain basic data which affected engine performance of the power tiller being widely used in the rural area. Among the various factors affected engine performance, only flywheel weight was considered as the major factor in this study. Fuel consumption ratio, motoring loss, torque, vibration and mechanical efficiency of the engine tested were measured and analyzed on the four levels of flywheel weight (32.2, 29.7, 26.4, 24.2 kg). The results obtained were as follows: 1. The maximum output of 6 and 7.5 kW engine was 7.43 kW and 7.85 kW respectively. When flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg, output power of the engine was increased 0.27 kW in 6 kW engine and increased 0.39 kW in 7.5 kW engine. 2. The fuel consumption ratio was decreased from 300.8 to 296.8 g/kW-hr in 6 kW engine and decreased from 313.6 to 312.8 g/kW-hr in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. 3. The mechanical efficiencies of the engine was increased from 76.1 to 76.8% in 6 kW engine and increased from 76.7 to 77.0% in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. 4. When the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg, a tendency of a little decrease of vibration at X- and Z-axis in 6 kW engine and of a little increase of vibration at Y-axis in 6 kW engine and all directions in 7.5 kW engine was observed. 5. Motoring losses was decreased from 2.33 to l.76 kW in 6 kW engine and decreased from 2.46 to 1.84 kW in 7.5 kW engine when the flywheel weight was reduced from 32.2 kg to 24.2 kg. From the above results and the flywheel weight calculated theoretically, it was recommendable that the flywheel weight should be reduced about 7 kg in 6 kW engine and about 10 kg in 7.5 kW engine, respectively.

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Major Characteristics Related to Eating Quality in Waxy Corn Hybrids (찰옥수수 교잡종의 식미관련 주요 특성)

  • Jung Tae wook;Kim Sun Lim;Moon Hyeon Gui;Son Beom Young;Kim Si Ju;Kim Soon Kwon
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.50 no.spc1
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    • pp.152-160
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    • 2005
  • This study was carried out to investigate selectable criteria in evaluating waxy corn $F_1$ hybrids for developing good eating quality waxy corn variety. The physicochemical property analysis of 6 waxy corn $F_1$ hybrids - Chalok1, Chalok2, Heugjeomchal, Yeonnongl, Chalok4, and Suwon45- showed a range of $11.2\~13.1\%$ for crude protein, $5.1\~6.0\%$ for crude fat, $91.8\~92.6\%$ for amylopectin, and $4.5\~6.6\%$ for free sugar content. The pericarp thickness which is one of the most important characteristics related to tenderness in waxy corn was ranged $34\~47{\mu}m$ in 4 waxy corn hybrids - Yeonnongl, Chalok4, Suwon45, and Heugjeomchal. On the other hand, it was ranged $64\~81{\mu}m$ in Chalok1 and Chalok2. The amylogram analysis by rapid visco analyzer showed that in fresh waxy corn hybrid (DAP25), all amylogram properties except setback were higher in Yeonnongl, Chalok4, and Suwon45 compared to those of Chalokl, Chnlok2, and Heugjeomchal. However, in matured waxy corn hybyids (DAP45), the result was the opposite - the amylogram properties were higher in Chalokl, Chalok2, and Heugjeomchal than those of Yeonnongl, Chalok4, and Suwon45. The texture analysis showed that gumminess, chewiness, and hardness increased dramatically with the time after the cooking in Chalokl and Beugjeomchal. On the other hand, these above pyoperties did not change as rapidly with the time in Yeonnongl, Chalok4, and Suwon45. Gumminess, chewiness, and hardness did not increase much within 6 hours after steamingr but increased significantly 32 hours after steaming. Therefore, we have reached a conclusion that texture analysis of cooked waxy corn should be carried out 6 hours after steaming. In the sensory evaluation, Yeonnongl, Chalok4, and Suwon45 revealed higher palatability -6.8, 7.1, and 6.9 respectively - than. that of Chnlokl, Chalok2, and Heugjeomchal. The palatability analysis of 6 waxy corn hybrids showed palatability positively correlating with free sugar content,100-kernel weight, kernel length, kernet width, and consistency, but negatively correlating with pericarp thickness, hardness, gumminess, and chewiness.

Antecedents of Manufacturer's Private Label Program Engagement : A Focus on Strategic Market Management Perspective (제조업체 Private Labels 도입의 선행요인 : 전략적 시장관리 관점을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Chae-Un;Yi, Ho-Taek
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.65-86
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    • 2012
  • The $20^{th}$ century was the era of manufacturer brands which built higher brand equity for consumers. Consumers moved from generic products of inconsistent quality produced by local factories in the $19^{th}$ century to branded products from global manufacturers and manufacturer brands reached consumers through distributors and retailers. Retailers were relatively small compared to their largest suppliers. However, sometime in the 1970s, things began to slowly change as retailers started to develop their own national chains and began international expansion, and consolidation of the retail industry from mom-and-pop stores to global players was well under way (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007, p.2) In South Korea, since the middle of the 1990s, the bulking up of retailers that started then has changed the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers. Retailer private labels, generally referred to as own labels, store brands, distributors own private-label, home brand or own label brand have also been performing strongly in every single local market (Bushman 1993; De Wulf et al. 2005). Private labels now account for one out of every five items sold every day in U.S. supermarkets, drug chains, and mass merchandisers (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007), and the market share in Western Europe is even larger (Euromonitor 2007). In the UK, grocery market share of private labels grew from 39% of sales in 2008 to 41% in 2010 (Marian 2010). Planet Retail (2007, p.1) recently concluded that "[PLs] are set for accelerated growth, with the majority of the world's leading grocers increasing their own label penetration." Private labels have gained wide attention both in the academic literature and popular business press and there is a glowing academic research to the perspective of manufacturers and retailers. Empirical research on private labels has mainly studies the factors explaining private labels market shares across product categories and/or retail chains (Dahr and Hoch 1997; Hoch and Banerji, 1993), factors influencing the private labels proneness of consumers (Baltas and Doyle 1998; Burton et al. 1998; Richardson et al. 1996) and factors how to react brand manufacturers towards PLs (Dunne and Narasimhan 1999; Hoch 1996; Quelch and Harding 1996; Verhoef et al. 2000). Nevertheless, empirical research on factors influencing the production in terms of a manufacturer-retailer is rather anecdotal than theory-based. The objective of this paper is to bridge the gap in these two types of research and explore the factors which influence on manufacturer's private label production based on two competing theories: S-C-P (Structure - Conduct - Performance) paradigm and resource-based theory. In order to do so, the authors used in-depth interview with marketing managers, reviewed retail press and research and presents the conceptual framework that integrates the major determinants of private labels production. From a manufacturer's perspective, supplying private labels often starts on a strategic basis. When a manufacturer engages in private labels, the manufacturer does not have to spend on advertising, retailer promotions or maintain a dedicated sales force. Moreover, if a manufacturer has weak marketing capabilities, the manufacturer can make use of retailer's marketing capability to produce private labels and lessen its marketing cost and increases its profit margin. Figure 1. is the theoretical framework based on a strategic market management perspective, integrated concept of both S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The model includes one mediate variable, marketing capabilities, and the other moderate variable, competitive intensity. Manufacturer's national brand reputation, firm's marketing investment, and product portfolio, which are hypothesized to positively affected manufacturer's marketing capabilities. Then, marketing capabilities has negatively effected on private label production. Moderating effects of competitive intensity are hypothesized on the relationship between marketing capabilities and private label production. To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 192 manufacturers (212 responses) who are producing private labels in South Korea. Cronbach's alpha test, explanatory / comfirmatory factor analysis, and correlation analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. The following results were drawing using structural equation modeling and all hypotheses are supported. Findings indicate that manufacturer's private label production is strongly related to its marketing capabilities. Consumer marketing capabilities, in turn, is directly connected with the 3 strategic factors (e.g., marketing investment, manufacturer's national brand reputation, and product portfolio). It is moderated by competitive intensity between marketing capabilities and private label production. In conclusion, this research may be the first study to investigate the reasons manufacturers engage in private labels based on two competing theoretic views, S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The private label phenomenon has received growing attention by marketing scholars. In many industries, private labels represent formidable competition to manufacturer brands and manufacturers have a dilemma with selling to as well as competing with their retailers. The current study suggests key factors when manufacturers consider engaging in private label production.

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The Roles of Service Failure and Recovery Satisfaction in Customer-Firm Relationship Restoration : Focusing on Carry-over effect and Dynamics among Customer Affection, Customer Trust and Loyalty Intention Before and After the Events (서비스실패의 심각성과 복구만족이 고객-기업 관계회복에 미치는 영향 : 실패이전과 복구이후 고객애정, 고객신뢰, 충성의도의 이월효과 및 역학관계 비교를 중심으로)

  • La, Sun-A
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.1-36
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    • 2012
  • Service failure is one of the major reasons for customer defection. As the business environment gets tougher and more competitive, a single service failure might bring about fatal consequences to a service provider or a firm. Sometimes a failure won't end up with an unsatisfied customer's simple complaining but with a wide-spread animosity against the service provider or the firm, leading to a threat to the firm's survival itself in the society. Therefore, we are in need of comprehensive understandings of complainants' attitudes and behaviors toward service failures and firm's recovery efforts. Even though a failure itself couldn't be fixed completely, marketers should repair the mind and heart of unsatisfied customers, which can be regarded as an successful recovery strategy in the end. As the outcome of recovery efforts exerted by service providers or firms, recovery of the relationship between customer and service provider need to put on the top in the recovery goal list. With these motivations, the study investigates how service failure and recovery makes the changes in dynamics of fundamental elements of customer-firm relationship, such as customer affection, customer trust and loyalty intention by comparing two time points, before the service failure and after the recovery, focusing on the effects of recovery satisfaction and the failure severity. We adopted La & Choi (2012)'s framework for development of the research model that was based on the previous research stream like Yim et al. (2008) and Thomson et al. (2005). The pivotal background theories of the model are mainly from relationship marketing and social relationships of social psychology. For example, Love, Emotional attachment, Intimacy, and Equity theories regarding human relationships were reviewed. As the results, when recovery satisfaction is high, customer affection and customer trust that were established before the service failure are carried over to the future after the recovery. However, when recovery satisfaction is low, customer-firm relationship that had already established in the past are not carried over but broken up. Regardless of the degree of recovery satisfaction, once a failure occurs loyalty intention is not carried over to the future and the impact of customer trust on loyalty intention becomes stronger. Such changes imply that customers become more prudent and more risk-aversive than the time prior to service failure. The impact of severity of failure on customer affection and customer trust matters only when recovery satisfaction is low. When recovery satisfaction is high, customer affection and customer trust become severity-proof. Interestingly, regardless of the degree of recovery satisfaction, failure severity has a significant negative influence on loyalty intention. Loyalty intention is the most fragile target when a service failure occurs no matter how severe the failure criticality is. Consequently, the ultimate goal of service recovery should be the restoration of customer-firm relationship and recovery of customer trust should be the primary objective to accomplish for a successful recovery performance. Especially when failure severity is high, service recovery should be perceived highly satisfied by the complainants because failure severity matters more when recovery satisfaction is low. Marketers can implement recovery strategies to enhance emotional appeals as well as fair treatments since the both impacts of affection and trust on loyalty intention are significant. In the case of high severity of failure, recovery efforts should be exerted to overreach customer expectation, designed to directly repair customer trust and elaborately designed in the focus of customer-firm communications during the interactional recovery process to affect customer trust rebuilding indirectly. Because it is a longer and harder way to rebuild customer-firm relationship for high severity cases, low recovery satisfaction cannot guarantee customer retention. To prevent customer defection due to service failure of high severity, unexpected rewards as a recovery will be likely to be useful since those will lead to customer delight or customer gratitude toward the service firm. Based on the results of analyses, theoretical and managerial implications are presented. Limitations and future research ideas are also discussed.

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Categorizing Quality Features of Franchisees: In the case of Korean Food Service Industry (프랜차이즈 매장 품질요인의 속성분류: 국내 외식업을 중심으로)

  • Byun, Sook-Eun;Cho, Eun-Seong
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.95-115
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    • 2011
  • Food service is the major part of franchise business in Korea, accounting for 69.9% of the brands in the market. As the food service industry becomes mature, many franchisees have struggled to survive in the market. In general, consumers have higher levels of expectation toward service quality of franchised outlets compared that of (non-franchised) independent ones. They also tend to believe that franchisees deliver standardized service at the uniform food price, regardless of their locations. Such beliefs seem to be important reasons that consumers prefer franchised outlets to independent ones. Nevertheless, few studies examined the impact of qualify features of franchisees on customer satisfaction so far. To this end, this study examined the characteristics of various quality features of franchisees in the food service industry, regarding their relationship with customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction. The quality perception of heavy-users was also compared with that of light-users in order to find insights for developing differentiated marketing strategy for the two segments. Customer satisfaction has been understood as a one-dimensional construct while there are recent studies that insist two-dimensional nature of the construct. In this regard, Kano et al. (1984) suggested to categorize quality features of a product or service into five types, based on their relation to customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction: Must-be quality, Attractive quality, One-dimensional quality, Indifferent quality, and Reverse quality. According to the Kano model, customers are more dissatisfied when Must-be quality(M) are not fulfilled, but their satisfaction does not arise above neutral no matter how fully the quality fulfilled. In comparison, customers are more satisfied with a full provision of Attactive quality(A) but manage to accept its dysfunction. One-dimensional quality(O) results in satisfaction when fulfilled and dissatisfaction when not fulfilled. For Indifferent quality(I), its presence or absence influences neither customer satisfaction nor dissatisfaction. Lastly, Reverse quality(R) refers to the features whose high degree of achievement results in customer dissatisfaction rather than satisfaction. Meanwhile, the basic guidelines of the Kano model have a limitation in that the quality type of each feature is simply determined by calculating the mode statistics. In order to overcome such limitation, the relative importance of each feature on customer satisfaction (Better value; b) and dissatisfaction (Worse value; w) were calculated following the formulas below (Timko, 1993). The Better value indicates how much customer satisfaction is increased by providing the quality feature in question. In contrast, the Worse value indicates how much customer dissatisfaction is decreased by providing the quality feature. Better = (A + O)/(A+O+M+I) Worse = (O+M)/(A+O+M+I)(-1) An on-line survey was performed in order to understand the nature of quality features of franchisees in the food service industry by applying the Kano Model. A total of twenty quality features (refer to the Table 2) were identified as the result of literature review in franchise business and a pre-test with fifty college students in Seoul. The potential respondents of our main survey was limited to the customers who have visited more than two restaurants/stores of the same franchise brand. Survey invitation e-mails were sent out to the panels of a market research company and a total of 257 responses were used for analysis. Following the guidelines of Kano model, each of the twenty quality features was classified into one of the five types based on customers' responses to a set of questions: "(1) how do you feel if the following quality feature is fulfilled in the franchise restaurant that you visit," and "(2) how do you feel if the following quality feature is not fulfilled in the franchise restaurant that you visit." The analyses revealed that customers' dissatisfaction with franchisees is commonly associated with the poor level of cleanliness of the store (w=-0.872), kindness of the staffs(w=-0.890), conveniences such as parking lot and restroom(w=-0.669), and expertise of the staffs(w=-0.492). Such quality features were categorized as Must-be quality in this study. While standardization or uniformity across franchisees has been emphasized in franchise business, this study found that consumers are interested only in uniformity of price across franchisees(w=-0.608), but not interested in standardizations of menu items, interior designs, customer service procedures, and food tastes. Customers appeared to be more satisfied when the franchise brand has promotional events such as giveaways(b=0.767), good accessibility(b=0.699), customer loyalty programs(b=0.659), award winning history(b=0.641), and outlets in the overseas market(b=0.506). The results are summarized in a matrix form in Table 1. Better(b) and Worse(w) index indicate relative importance of each quality feature on customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction, respectively. Meanwhile, there were differences in perceiving the quality features between light users and heavy users of any specific franchise brand in the food service industry. Expertise of the staffs was labeled as Must-be quality for heavy users but Indifferent quality for light users. Light users seemed indifferent to overseas expansion of the brand and offering new menu items on a regular basis, while heavy users appeared to perceive them as Attractive quality. Such difference may come from their different levels of involvement when they eat out. The results are shown in Table 2. The findings of this study help practitioners understand the quality features they need to focus on to strengthen the competitive power in the food service market. Above all, removing the factors that cause customer dissatisfaction seems to be the most critical for franchisees. To retain loyal customers of the franchise brand, it is also recommended for franchisor to invest resources in the development of new menu items as well as training programs for the staffs. Lastly, if resources allow, promotional events, loyalty programs, overseas expansion, award-winning history can be considered as tools for attracting more customers to the business.

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