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Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

Effect of Service Convenience on the Relationship Performance in B2B Markets: Mediating Effect of Relationship Factors (B2B 시장에서의 서비스 편의성이 관계성과에 미치는 영향 : 관계적 요인의 매개효과 분석)

  • Han, Sang-Lin;Lee, Seong-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.65-93
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    • 2011
  • As relationship between buyer and seller has been brought closer and long-term relationship has been more important in B2B markets, the importance of service and service convenience increases as well as product. In homogeneous markets, where service offerings are similar and therefore not key competitive differentiator, providing greater convenience may enable a competitive advantage. Service convenience, as conceptualized by Berry et al. (2002), is defined as the consumers' time and effort perceptions related to buying or using a service. For this reason, B2B customers are interested in how fast the service is provided and how much save non-monetary cost like time or effort by the service convenience along with service quality. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the impact of service convenience on relationship factors such as relationship satisfaction, relationship commitment, and relationship performance. The purpose of this study is to find out whether service convenience can be a new antecedent of relationship quality and relationship performance. In addition, this study tries to examine how five-dimensional service convenience constructs (decision convenience, access convenience, transaction convenience, benefit convenience, post-benefit convenience) affect customers' relationship satisfaction, relationship commitment, and relationship performance. The service convenience comprises five fundamental components - decision convenience (the perceived time and effort costs associated with service purchase or use decisions), access convenience(the perceived time and effort costs associated with initiating service delivery), transaction convenience(the perceived time and effort costs associated with finalizing the transaction), benefit convenience(the perceived time and effort costs associated with experiencing the core benefits of the offering) and post-benefit convenience (the perceived time and effort costs associated with reestablishing subsequent contact with the firm). Earlier studies of perceived service convenience in the industrial market are none. The conventional studies that have dealt with service convenience have usually been made in the consumer market, or they have dealt with convenience aspects in the service process. This service convenience measure for consumer market can be useful tool to estimate service quality in B2B market. The conceptualization developed by Berry et al. (2002) reflects a multistage, experiential consumption process in which evaluations of convenience vary at each stage. For this reason, the service convenience measure is good for B2B service environment which has complex processes and various types. Especially when categorizing B2B service as sequential stage of service delivery like Kumar and Kumar (2004), the Berry's service convenience measure which reflect sequential flow of service deliveries suitable to establish B2B service convenience. For this study, data were gathered from respondents who often buy business service and analyzed by structural equation modeling. The sample size in the present study is 119. Composite reliability values and average variance extracted values were examined for each variable to have reliability. We determine whether the measurement model supports the convergent validity by CFA, and discriminant validity was assessed by examining the correlation matrix of the constructs. For each pair of constructs, the square root of the average variance extracted exceeded their correlations, thus supporting the discriminant validity of the constructs. Hypotheses were tested using the Smart PLS 2.0 and we calculated the PLS path values and followed with a bootstrap re-sampling method to test the hypotheses. Among the five dimensional service convenience constructs, four constructs (decision convenience, transaction convenience, benefit convenience, post-benefit convenience) affected customers' positive relationship satisfaction, relationship commitment, and relationship performance. This result means that service convenience is important cue to improve relationship between buyer and seller. One of the five service convenience dimensions, access convenience, does not affect relationship quality and performance, which implies that the dimension of service convenience is not important factor of cumulative satisfaction. The Cumulative satisfaction can be distinguished from transaction-specific customer satisfaction, which is an immediate post-purchase evaluative judgment or an affective reaction to the most recent transactional experience with the firm. Because access convenience minimizes the physical effort associated with initiating an exchange, the effect on relationship satisfaction similar to cumulative satisfaction may be relatively low in terms of importance than transaction-specific customer satisfaction. Also, B2B firms focus on service quality, price, benefit, follow-up service and so on than convenience of time or place in service because it is relatively difficult to change existing transaction partners in B2B market compared to consumer market. In addition, this study using partial least squares methods reveals that customers' satisfaction and commitment toward relationship has mediating role between the service convenience and relationship performance. The result shows that management and investment to improve service convenience make customers' positive relationship satisfaction, and then the positive relationship satisfaction can enhance the relationship commitment and relationship performance. And to conclude, service convenience management is an important part of successful relationship performance management, and the service convenience is an important antecedent of relationship between buyer and seller such as the relationship commitment and relationship performance. Therefore, it has more important to improve relationship performance that service providers enhance service convenience although competitive service development or service quality improvement is important. Given the pressure to provide increased convenience, it is not surprising that organizations have made significant investments in enhancing the convenience aspect of their product and service offering.

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The Impact of Market Environments on Optimal Channel Strategy Involving an Internet Channel: A Game Theoretic Approach (시장 환경이 인터넷 경로를 포함한 다중 경로 관리에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 게임 이론적 접근방법)

  • Yoo, Weon-Sang
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.119-138
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    • 2011
  • Internet commerce has been growing at a rapid pace for the last decade. Many firms try to reach wider consumer markets by adding the Internet channel to the existing traditional channels. Despite the various benefits of the Internet channel, a significant number of firms failed in managing the new type of channel. Previous studies could not cleary explain these conflicting results associated with the Internet channel. One of the major reasons is most of the previous studies conducted analyses under a specific market condition and claimed that as the impact of Internet channel introduction. Therefore, their results are strongly influenced by the specific market settings. However, firms face various market conditions in the real worlddensity and disutility of using the Internet. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of various market environments on a firm's optimal channel strategy by employing a flexible game theory model. We capture various market conditions with consumer density and disutility of using the Internet.

    shows the channel structures analyzed in this study. Before the Internet channel is introduced, a monopoly manufacturer sells its products through an independent physical store. From this structure, the manufacturer could introduce its own Internet channel (MI). The independent physical store could also introduce its own Internet channel and coordinate it with the existing physical store (RI). An independent Internet retailer such as Amazon could enter this market (II). In this case, two types of independent retailers compete with each other. In this model, consumers are uniformly distributed on the two dimensional space. Consumer heterogeneity is captured by a consumer's geographical location (ci) and his disutility of using the Internet channel (${\delta}_{N_i}$).
    shows various market conditions captured by the two consumer heterogeneities.
    (a) illustrates a market with symmetric consumer distributions. The model captures explicitly the asymmetric distributions of consumer disutility in a market as well. In a market like that is represented in
    (c), the average consumer disutility of using an Internet store is relatively smaller than that of using a physical store. For example, this case represents the market in which 1) the product is suitable for Internet transactions (e.g., books) or 2) the level of E-Commerce readiness is high such as in Denmark or Finland. On the other hand, the average consumer disutility when using an Internet store is relatively greater than that of using a physical store in a market like (b). Countries like Ukraine and Bulgaria, or the market for "experience goods" such as shoes, could be examples of this market condition. summarizes the various scenarios of consumer distributions analyzed in this study. The range for disutility of using the Internet (${\delta}_{N_i}$) is held constant, while the range of consumer distribution (${\chi}_i$) varies from -25 to 25, from -50 to 50, from -100 to 100, from -150 to 150, and from -200 to 200.
    summarizes the analysis results. As the average travel cost in a market decreases while the average disutility of Internet use remains the same, average retail price, total quantity sold, physical store profit, monopoly manufacturer profit, and thus, total channel profit increase. On the other hand, the quantity sold through the Internet and the profit of the Internet store decrease with a decreasing average travel cost relative to the average disutility of Internet use. We find that a channel that has an advantage over the other kind of channel serves a larger portion of the market. In a market with a high average travel cost, in which the Internet store has a relative advantage over the physical store, for example, the Internet store becomes a mass-retailer serving a larger portion of the market. This result implies that the Internet becomes a more significant distribution channel in those markets characterized by greater geographical dispersion of buyers, or as consumers become more proficient in Internet usage. The results indicate that the degree of price discrimination also varies depending on the distribution of consumer disutility in a market. The manufacturer in a market in which the average travel cost is higher than the average disutility of using the Internet has a stronger incentive for price discrimination than the manufacturer in a market where the average travel cost is relatively lower. We also find that the manufacturer has a stronger incentive to maintain a high price level when the average travel cost in a market is relatively low. Additionally, the retail competition effect due to Internet channel introduction strengthens as average travel cost in a market decreases. This result indicates that a manufacturer's channel power relative to that of the independent physical retailer becomes stronger with a decreasing average travel cost. This implication is counter-intuitive, because it is widely believed that the negative impact of Internet channel introduction on a competing physical retailer is more significant in a market like Russia, where consumers are more geographically dispersed, than in a market like Hong Kong, that has a condensed geographic distribution of consumers.
    illustrates how this happens. When mangers consider the overall impact of the Internet channel, however, they should consider not only channel power, but also sales volume. When both are considered, the introduction of the Internet channel is revealed as more harmful to a physical retailer in Russia than one in Hong Kong, because the sales volume decrease for a physical store due to Internet channel competition is much greater in Russia than in Hong Kong. The results show that manufacturer is always better off with any type of Internet store introduction. The independent physical store benefits from opening its own Internet store when the average travel cost is higher relative to the disutility of using the Internet. Under an opposite market condition, however, the independent physical retailer could be worse off when it opens its own Internet outlet and coordinates both outlets (RI). This is because the low average travel cost significantly reduces the channel power of the independent physical retailer, further aggravating the already weak channel power caused by myopic inter-channel price coordination. The results implies that channel members and policy makers should explicitly consider the factors determining the relative distributions of both kinds of consumer disutility, when they make a channel decision involving an Internet channel. These factors include the suitability of a product for Internet shopping, the level of E-Commerce readiness of a market, and the degree of geographic dispersion of consumers in a market. Despite the academic contributions and managerial implications, this study is limited in the following ways. First, a series of numerical analyses were conducted to derive equilibrium solutions due to the complex forms of demand functions. In the process, we set up V=100, ${\lambda}$=1, and ${\beta}$=0.01. Future research may change this parameter value set to check the generalizability of this study. Second, the five different scenarios for market conditions were analyzed. Future research could try different sets of parameter ranges. Finally, the model setting allows only one monopoly manufacturer in the market. Accommodating competing multiple manufacturers (brands) would generate more realistic results.

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  • An experimental study on the impact of an agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period of primiparous mothers and enhance their self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance (산욕초기 초산모의 간호목표달성방번 합의가 어머니 역할수행에 대한 자신감 및 만족도에 미치는 영향에 관한 실험적 연구)

    • 이영은
      • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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      • v.22 no.1
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      • pp.81-115
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      • 1992
    • The problem addressed by this study was to determine the effect of nurse - patient agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period of primiparous mothers. It was hypothesized that the experimental treatment would result in hegher self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance. This purpose was to contribute to the planning of nursing care to enhance self- confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance and to the development of relevant nursing theory. Especially, the early postpartum period is crucial toward in recovery from childbirth and attainment of the maternal role. Maternal role attaintment is a complex social and cognitive process of stimulus -response accomplished by learning. Most women attain the maternal role sucessfully. But, some primiparous mothers experience difficultites in attainment of the maternal role due to lack of experience and knowledge. Self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance are important factors in attainment and adjustment to the maternal role (Mercer, 1981a, 1981b ; Lederman, Weigarten, and Lederman, 1981 :Bobak and Jensen, 1985). Nursing is defined as behaviors of nurses add patients that attain nursing goals through action, reaction, interaction, and transaction. For attainment of nursing goals, active participating transactions must occur by agreement on the means to achieve those goals through nurse -patient mutual goal setting and establishment of their active relationships(King, 1981, Ha, 1977). Based on King's theory of goal attainment (1981), this stuy was planned as a non-equivalent control group, non -synchronized quasi -experimental design using agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in early postpartum as the experimental treatment. The data were collected from July 20 to Sep. 1, 1991 by questionnaires with 60 primiparous mothers planing to breast feed after normal deliveries at W hospital in Pusan, Korea. The subjects were divided into a control group(conventional group) -those admitted from July 20 to Aug. 12, and an experimental group(agreement group) - those admitted from Aug. 13 to Sep. 1. The instument for agreement on the means to nursing goals in the early postpartum period included five steps - identification of disturbances of problems through action, reaction, and interaction with primiparous mothers : mutual early postpartal nursing goal setting : exploration of the means to achieve goals ; agreement on the means (self- care, ealry maternal -infant contact, performance of mothering behavior, and communicating about the infant's behavior and health condition) : implementation of the means. This instrument was developed on the basis of King's elements that lead to transactions in nurse-patient interactions. Lederman et al's (1981) scale for Confidence in ability to cope with tasks of motherhood and Lederman et al's(1981) scale for Mother's satisfaction with motherhood and infant care were used to measure self-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance ·with the subjects immediately after admission and on the day of discharge. Self-care performance in the experimental group was measured by self -evaluation tool developed by the investigator from the literature concerned. The tools to measure Pelf-confidence and satisfaction in maternal role performance, and the tool to measure self-evaluation of self-care performance were tested for internal reliability. Cronbach's Alphas were 0.94, 0.94, and 0.63. The data were analysed by using in S.P.S.S. computerized program and included percentage, x²-test, t-test, ANOVA, and Pearson Correlation Coefficient. The conclusions obtained from this study are summerized as follows : 1. The degree of self-confidence in maternal role performance of the total subjects group measured before the experimental treatment was above average with a mean score of 2.77(range 2.14-3.64). Out of 14 items, those with relatively high mean scores were ‘I would like to be a better mother than I am’(3.95), and ‘I have my doubts about whether I am a good mother’(2.87). Those with low mean scores were ‘I know that my baby wants most of the times’(2.28), ‘When the baby cries, I can tell what she /he wants’(2.37), and ‘I have confidence in my ability to care for the baby’(2;50). That is, the self - confidence of Primiparous mothers was considerably high in mothering, but rather low in activities concerning the infant care and understanding of the infant behavior. The degree of satisfaction in maternal role performance of the total subjects group measured before the experimental treatment was high with a mean score of 3.18(range 1.92-3.92). Out of 13 items, those with relatively high mean scores were ‘I am glad 1 had this baby now’(3.75), ‘I play with the baby between feedings when s/he is awake and quiet’(3.67), and ‘I enjoy being a mother’(3.27). Those with low mean scores were ‘I am upset about having too many responsibilities as a mother’(2.78), ‘It bothers me to get up for the baby at night’(2.82), and ‘I get annoyed if the baby frequently interrupts my activities’.(2.82), That is, the satisfaction of primiparous mothers was considerably high in mothering and infant care, but rather low in restraints in time or on the mother's self accomplishment and development. 2. Agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period included process of mutual goal setting, exploration of the means to achieve goals, and ahreement in concert means to achieve goals based on the mothers' condition, concerns, self-perception of the nurse - patient interactions. In the process of agreement, there was agreement that the means to achieve goals should be through trust and establishment of active relationships with the nurse through identification of problems according to planned nursing goals and active interaction, such as explanations, teaching, changing of opinions, acceptance or rejection of explanations, and proposing of questions. Therefore agreement on the means to achieve nursing goals in the early postpartum period appears to be an effective nursing intervention for primiparous mothers. 3. The degree of self- confidence in maternal role performance of the exprimental group was higher than that of the control group(t=3.95, p<0.01). Out of 14 items, those with higher score in the experimental group were ‘I would like to be a better mother than I am’(t=1.93, p<0.05), ‘I know that my baby wants most of the times’(t=2.75, p<0.01), ‘When the baby cries, 1 can tell what she/he wants’(t=2.10, p<0.05), ‘I have confidence in my ability to care for the baby’(t=3.72, p<0.01), ‘I trust my own judement in deciding how to care for the baby’(t=1.96, p<0.05), ‘I feel that I know my baby and what to do for him /her’(t=2.44, p<0.01), ‘I am concerned about being able to meet the baby's needs’(t=2.87, p<0.01), ‘I know what my baby likes and dislikes’(t=3.26, p<0.01), ‘I don't know to care for the baby as well as I should’(t=2.07, p<0.05), and ‘I am unsure about whether I give enough attention to the baby’(t=3.04, p<0.01), That is, the degree of self-confidence in mothering, activities concerning infant care, and understanding of infant behavior of the experimental group was higher than that of the control group. Therefore, the first hypothesis, that the degree of self-confidence in maternal role performance of the experimental group would be higher than that of the control group, was supported(t=3.95, p<0.01). 4. The degree of satisfaction in the maternal role performance of the exprimental group was higer than that or the control group(t=2.31, p<0.05). Out of 13 items, those with higher score in the experimental group were ‘I am glad I had this baby now’(t=2.29, p<0.05), ‘I enjoy taking care of the baby’(t=2.4g, p<0.01), ‘It is boring for me to care for the baby and do the same thing over and over’(t=2.87, P<0.01), ‘I am unhappy with the amount of time I have for activities other than childcare’(t=2.51, p<0.01), and ‘When bathing and diapering the baby, I would like to be doing something else’(t=2.43, p<0.01). That is, the degree of satisfaction in mothering, infant care, and restraints in time of on the mother's self accomplishment and development in the experimental group was higher than that of the control group. Therefore, the second hypothesis, that the degree of satisfaction in maternal role performance of the experimental group would be higher than that of the control group, was supported(t=2.31, p<0.05). 5. The third hypothesis, that the higher the degree of satisfaction in materenal role performance, the higher the degree of self-confidence in materenal role performance in the experimental group, was supported (r=0.57, p<0.01)

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    Sequence Stratigraphy of the Yeongweol Group (Cambrian-Ordovician), Taebaeksan Basin, Korea: Paleogeographic Implications (전기고생대 태백산분지 영월층군의 순차층서 연구를 통한 고지리적 추론)

    • Kwon, Y.K.
      • Economic and Environmental Geology
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      • v.45 no.3
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      • pp.317-333
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      • 2012
    • The Yeongweol Group is a Lower Paleozoic mixed carbonate-siliciclastic sequence in the Taebaeksan Basin of Korea, and consists of five lithologic formations: Sambangsan, Machari, Wagok, Mungok, and Yeongheung in ascending order. Sequence stratigraphic interpretation of the group indicates that initial flooding in the Yeongweol area of the Taebaeksan Basin resulted in basal siliciclastic-dominated sequences of the Sambangsan Formation during the Middle Cambrian. The accelerated sea-level rise in the late Middle to early Late Cambrian generated a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic slope or deep ramp sequence of shale, grainstone and breccia intercalations, representing the lower part of the Machari Formation. The continued rise of sea level in the Late Cambrian made substantial accommodation space and activated subtidal carbonate factory, forming carbonate-dominated subtidal platform sequence in the middle and upper parts of the Machari Formation. The overlying Wagok Formation might originally be a ramp carbonate sequence of subtidal ribbon carbonates and marls with conglomerates, deposited during the normal rise of relative sea level in the late Late Cambrian. The formation was affected by unstable dolomitization shortly after the deposition during the relative sea-level fall in the latest Cambrian or earliest Ordovician. Subsequently, it was extensively dolomitized under the deep burial diagenetic condition. During the Early Ordovician (Tremadocian), global transgression (viz. Sauk) was continued, and subtidal ramp deposition was sustained in the Yeongweol platform, forming the Mungok Formation. The formation is overlain by the peritidal carbonates of the Yeongheung Formation, and is stacked by cyclic sedimentation during the Early to Middle Ordovician (Arenigian to Caradocian). The lithologic change from subtidal ramp to peritidal facies is preserved at the uppermost part of the Mungok Formation. The transition between Sauk and Tippecanoe sequences is recognized within the middle part of the Yeongheung Formation as a minimum accommodation zone. The global eustatic fall in the earliest Middle Ordovician and the ensuing rise of relative sea level during the Darrwillian to Caradocian produced broadly-prograding peritidal carbonates of shallowing-upward cyclic successions within the Yeongheung Formation. The reconstructed relative sea-level curve of the Yeongweol platform is very similar to that of the Taebaek platform. This reveals that the Yeongweol platform experienced same tectonic movements with the Taebaek platform, and consequently that both platform sequences might be located in a body or somewhere separately in the margin of the North China platform. The significant differences in lithologic and stratigraphic successions imply that the Yeongweol platform was much far from the Taebaek platform and not associated with the Taebaek platform as a single depositional system. The Yeongweol platform was probably located in relatively open shallow marine environments, whereas the Taebaek platform was a part of the restricted embayments. During the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic amalgamations of the Korean massifs, the Yeongweol platform was probably pushed against the Taebaek platform by the complex movement, forming fragmented platform sequences of the Taebaeksan Basin.

    Organizational Buying Behavior in an Interdependent World (상호의존세계중적조직구매행위(相互依存世界中的组织购买行为))

    • Wind, Yoram;Thomas, Robert J.
      • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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      • v.20 no.2
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      • pp.110-122
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      • 2010
    • The emergence of the field of organizational buying behavior in the mid-1960’s with the publication of Industrial Buying and Creative Marketing (1967) set the stage for a new paradigm of thinking about how business was conducted in markets other than those serving ultimate consumers. Whether it is "industrial marketing" or "business-to-business marketing" (B-to-B), organizational buying behavior remains the core differentiating characteristic of this domain of marketing. This paper explores the impact of several dynamic factors that have influenced how organizations relate to one another in a rapidly increasing interdependence, which in turn can impact organizational buying behavior. The paper also raises the question of whether or not the major conceptual models of organizational buying behavior in an interdependent world are still relevant to guide research and managerial thinking, in this dynamic business environment. The paper is structured to explore three questions related to organizational interdependencies: 1. What are the factors and trends driving the emergence of organizational interdependencies? 2. Will the major conceptual models of organizational buying behavior that have developed over the past half century be applicable in a world of interdependent organizations? 3. What are the implications of organizational interdependencies on the research and practice of organizational buying behavior? Consideration of the factors and trends driving organizational interdependencies revealed five critical drivers in the relationships among organizations that can impact their purchasing behavior: Accelerating Globalization, Flattening Networks of Organizations, Disrupting Value Chains, Intensifying Government Involvement, and Continuously Fragmenting Customer Needs. These five interlinked drivers of interdependency and their underlying technological advances can alter the relationships within and among organizations that buy products and services to remain competitive in their markets. Viewed in the context of a customer driven marketing strategy, these forces affect three levels of strategy development: (1) evolving customer needs, (2) the resulting product/service/solution offerings to meet these needs, and (3) the organization competencies and processes required to develop and implement the offerings to meet needs. The five drivers of interdependency among organizations do not necessarily operate independently in their impact on how organizations buy. They can interact with each other and become even more potent in their impact on organizational buying behavior. For example, accelerating globalization may influence the emergence of additional networks that further disrupt traditional value chain relationships, thereby changing how organizations purchase products and services. Increased government involvement in business operations in one country may increase costs of doing business and therefore drive firms to seek low cost sources in emerging markets in other countries. This can reduce employment opportunitiesn one country and increase them in another, further accelerating the pace of globalization. The second major question in the paper is what impact these drivers of interdependencies have had on the core conceptual models of organizational buying behavior. Consider the three enduring conceptual models developed in the Industrial Buying and Creative Marketing and Organizational Buying Behavior books: the organizational buying process, the buying center, and the buying situation. A review of these core models of organizational buying behavior, as originally conceptualized, shows they are still valid and not likely to change with the increasingly intense drivers of interdependency among organizations. What will change however is the way in which buyers and sellers interact under conditions of interdependency. For example, increased interdependencies can lead to increased opportunities for collaboration as well as conflict between buying and selling organizations, thereby changing aspects of the buying process. In addition, the importance of communication processes between and among organizations will increase as the role of trust becomes an important criterion for a successful buying relationship. The third question in the paper explored consequences and implications of these interdependencies on organizational buying behavior for practice and research. The following are considered in the paper: the need to increase understanding of network influences on organizational buying behavior, the need to increase understanding of the role of trust and value among organizational participants, the need to improve understanding of how to manage organizational buying in networked environments, the need to increase understanding of customer needs in the value network, and the need to increase understanding of the impact of emerging new business models on organizational buying behavior. In many ways, these needs deriving from increased organizational interdependencies are an extension of the conceptual tradition in organizational buying behavior. In 1977, Nicosia and Wind suggested a focus on inter-organizational over intra-organizational perspectives, a trend that has received considerable momentum since the 1990's. Likewise for managers to survive in an increasingly interdependent world, they will need to better understand the complexities of how organizations relate to one another. The transition from an inter-organizational to an interdependent perspective has begun, and must continue so as to develop an improved understanding of these important relationships. A shift to such an interdependent network perspective may require many academicians and practitioners to fundamentally challenge and change the mental models underlying their business and organizational buying behavior models. The focus can no longer be only on the dyadic relations of the buying organization and the selling organization but should involve all the related members of the network, including the network of customers, developers, and other suppliers and intermediaries. Consider for example the numerous partner networks initiated by SAP which involves over 9000 companies and over a million participants. This evolving, complex, and uncertain reality of interdependencies and dynamic networks requires reconsideration of how purchase decisions are made; as a result they should be the focus of the next phase of research and theory building among academics and the focus of practical models and experiments undertaken by practitioners. The hope is that such research will take place, not in the isolation of the ivory tower, nor in the confines of the business world, but rather, by increased collaboration of academics and practitioners. In conclusion, the consideration of increased interdependence among organizations revealed the continued relevance of the fundamental models of organizational buying behavior. However to increase the value of these models in an interdependent world, academics and practitioners should improve their understanding of (1) network influences, (2) how to better manage these influences, (3) the role of trust and value among organizational participants, (4) the evolution of customer needs in the value network, and (5) the impact of emerging new business models on organizational buying behavior. To accomplish this, greater collaboration between industry and academia is needed to advance our understanding of organizational buying behavior in an interdependent world.

    The Mechanism of Interferon-$\gamma$ Induced Cytotoxicity on the Lung Cancer Cell Line, A549 (인터페론감마에 의한 A549 폐암세포주 세포독성의 기전)

    • Oh, Yeon-Mok;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Chung, Hee-Soon;Kim, Young-Whan;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
      • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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      • v.43 no.1
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      • pp.63-68
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      • 1996
    • Background: Interferon-$\gamma$ has various biologic effects, including antiviral effect, antitumor proliferative effect, activation of macrophage and B lymphocyte, and increased expression of major histocompatibility complex. Especially, antitumor proliferative effect of interferon-$\gamma$ has already been proved to be important in vivo as well as in vitro. And, clinical studies of interferon-$\gamma$ have been tried in lung cancer patients. However, the mechanism of antitumor effect of interferon-$\gamma$ has not yet been established despite of many hypotheses. "Necrosis" is a type of cell death which is well known to occur in the circumstances of severe stresses. In contrast, "apoptosis" is another type of cell death which occurs in such biological circumstances as embryonic development, regression of organs, and self-tolerance of lymphocytes. And, apoptosis is an active process of cell death in which cells are dying with fragmentations of their cytoplasms and nuclei. And, in the process of apoptosis the DNAs of cells are cleaved between nucleosomes by unidentified endonuclease and therefore DNAs of apoptotic cells result in a typical electrophoresis pattern known as DNA ladder pattern. Recently it has been suggested that cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ occurs via apoptosis. To elucidate the mechanism of antitumor cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$, we microscopically observed a lung cancer cell line, A549 which was treated with interferon-$\gamma$. We observed A545 treated with interferon-$\gamma$ was dying fragmented. And so, we performed this study to find out that the mechanism of antitumor cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ be apoptosis. Method: We treated A549, human lung cancer cell line with various concentration of interferon-$\gamma$ and quantified its cytotoxic effect of various periods, 24 hours, 72 hours and, 120 hours by MTT(dimethylthiazolyl diphenyltetrazolium bromide) bioassay. Also, after we treated A549 with 100 units/mi of interferon-$\gamma$ for 120 hours, we observed the pattern of cell death with inverted microscope and we extracted DNAs from the dead A549 cells and observed the pattern of 1.5% agarose gel electrophoresis with ethidium bromide staining. Result: 1) Cytotoxic effect of interferon-$\gamma$ on A549: For the first 24 hours, threre was little cytotoxic effect and for between 24 hours and 72 hours, there was the beginning of cytotoxic effect and for 120 hours there was increased cytotoxic effect. 2) Pattern of A549 cell death by interferon-$\gamma$: We observed with inverted microscope that A549 cells were dying fragmented. 3) DNA ladder pattern of gel electrophoresis: We observed DNA ladder pattern of gel electrophoresis of extracted DNAs from dead A549 cells. Conclusion: We concluded that the mechanism of interferon-$\gamma$induced cytotoxicity on lung cancer cell line, A549 be via apoptosis.

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    Circulating Cytokine Levels and Changes During the Treatment in Patients with Active Tuberculosis in Korea (결핵 환자의 치료경과 중 혈청 내 Cytokine 분비와 변화)

    • Ryu, Yon-Ju;Kim, Yun-Jung;Kwon, Jung-Mi;Na, Youn-Ju;Jung, Yu-Jin;Seoh, Ju Young;Cheon, Seon Hee
      • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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      • v.55 no.2
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      • pp.140-153
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      • 2003
    • Background : The cell-mediated immune reaction to tuberculosis infection involves a complex network of cytokines. The extent of inflammation, tissue damage and severity of the disease suggested to be determined by the balance between extent and duration of the proinflammatory cytokine response versus those of the suppressive cytokines. The systemic cytokine response in pathogenesis of tuberculosis can be assessed by measuring serum cytokine levels. Method : Serum interleukin-1 beta(IL-$1{\beta}$), IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12(p40), tumor necrosis factor-alpha(TNF-${\alpha}$), interferon-gamma(IFN-${\gamma}$) and transforming growth factor-beta(TGF-${\beta}$) levels were measured in 83 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, 10 patients with endobronchial tuberculosis before treatment and 20 healthy subjects by using a sandwich ELISA. In patients with pulmonary tuberculosis, they were divided into mild, moderate and far advanced group according to the severity by ATS guidelines. To compare with those of pretreatment levels, we measured serum IL-$1{\beta}$, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, IL-10, IL-12(p40), TNF-${\alpha}$, IFN-${\gamma}$ and TGF-${\beta}$ levels in 45 of 83 patients with pulmonary tuberculosis after 2 and 6 months of treatment. Results : 1) In sera of patients with active pulmonary tuberculosis(n=83), IL-$1{\beta}$, IL-6(p<0.05), TNF-${\alpha}$, and IFN-${\gamma}$ were elevated and TGF-${\beta}$ was decreased comparing to control. IL-2, Il-12(p40), IL-4 and IL-10 were similar between the patients with tuberculosis and control. 2) In endobronchial tuberculosis, IL-6 and TNF-${\alpha}$ were elevated and TGF-${\beta}$ was decreased comparing to control. IL-12(p40) seemed to be elevated comparing to pulmonary tuberculosis. 3) Far advanced tuberculosis showed markedly elevated IL-6 and IFN-${\gamma}$ level(p<0.05). 4) The significant correlations were noted between IL-1, IL-6 AND TNF-${\alpha}$ and between IL-12, Il-2 and IL-4(p<0.01). 5) After 2 and 6 months of standard treatment, the level of IL-6 and IFN-${\gamma}$ was significantly decreased(p<0.05). Conclusion : These results showed that an altered balance between cytokines is likely to be involved in the extent of inflammation, tissue damage and severity of the disease tuberculosis. But, it should be considered diversities of cytokine response according to type of tuberculosis and immunity in clinical application and interpreting future studies.

    Introduction of region-based site functions into the traditional market environmental support funding policy development (재래시장 환경개선 지원정책 개발에서의 지역 장소적 기능 도입)

    • Jeong, Dae-Yong;Lee, Se-Ho
      • Proceedings of the Korean DIstribution Association Conference
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      • 2005.05a
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      • pp.383-405
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      • 2005
    • The traditional market is foremost a regionally positioned place, wherein the market directly represents regional and cultural centered traits while it plays an important role in the circulation of facilities through reciprocal, informative and cultural exchanges while sewing to form local communities. The traditional market in Korea is one of representative retail businesses and premodern marketing techniques by family owned business of less than five members such as product management, purchase method, and marketing patterns etc. Since the 1990s, the appearance of new circulation-type businesses and large discount convenience stores escalated the loss of traditional competitiveness, increased the living standard of customers, changed purchasing patterns, and expanded the ubiquity of the Internet. All of these changes in external circulation circumstances have led the traditional markets to lose their place in the economy. The traditional market should revive on a regional site basis through the formation of a community of regional neighbors and through knowledge-sharing that leads to the creation of wealth. For the purpose of creating a wealth in a place, the following components are necessary: 1) a facility suitable for the spatial place of the present, 2)trust built through exchanges within the changing market environment, which would simultaneously satisfy customer's desires, 3) international bench marking on cases such as regionally centered TCM (England), BID (USA), and TMO (Japan) so that the market unit of store placement transfers from a spot policy to a line policy, 4)conversion of communicative conception through a surface policy approach centered around a macro-region perspective. The budget of the traditional market funding policy was operational between 2001 and 2004, serving as a counter move to solve the problem of the old traditional market through government intervention in regional economies to promote national economic strength. This national treasury funding project was centered on environmental improvement, research corps, and business modernization through the expenditure of 3,853 hundred million won (Korean currency). However, the effectiveness of this project has yet to be to proven through investigation. Furthermore, in promoting this funding support project, a lack of professionalism among merchants in the market led to constant limitations in comprehensive striving strategies, reduced capabilities in middle-and long-term plan setup, and created reductions in voluntary merchant agreement solutions. The traditional market should go beyond mere physical place and ordinary products creative site strategies employing the communicative approach must accompany these strategies to make the market a new regional and spatial living place. Thus, regarding recent paradigm changes and the introduction of region-based site functions into the traditional market, acquiring a conversion of direction into the newly developed project is essential to reinvestigate the traditional market composed of cultural and economic meanings, for the purpose of the research. Excavating social policy demands through the comparative analysis of domestic and international cases as well as innovative and expert management leadership development for NPO or NGO civil entrepreneurs through advanced case research on present promotion methods is extremely important. Discovering the seeds of the cultural contents industry cored around regional resource usages, commercializing regionally reknowned products, and constructing complex cultural living places for regional networks are especially important. In order to accelerate these solutions, a comprehensive and systemized approach research operated within a mentor academy system is required, as research will reveal distinctive traits of the traditional market in the aging society.

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    Prognostic Value of the Expression of p53 and bcl-2 in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (비소세포폐암에서 p53과 bcl-2의 발현이 예후에 미치는 영향)

    • Yang, Seok-Chul;Yoon, Ho-Joo;Shin, Dong-Ho;Park, Sung-Soo;Lee, Jung-Hee;Keum, Joo-Seob;Kong, Gu;Lee, Jung-Dal
      • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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      • v.45 no.5
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      • pp.962-974
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      • 1998
    • Background: Alteration of p53 tumor suppressor genes is most frequently identified in human neoplasms, including lung carcinoma. It is well known that bcl-2 oncoprotein protects cells from apoptosis. Recent studies have demonstrated that bcl-2 expression is associated with favorable prognosis for patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma. However, the precise biologic role of bcl-2 in the development of these tumors is still obscure. p53 and bcl-2 have important regulatory influence in the apoptotic pathway and thus their relationship is of interest in tumorigenesis, especially lung cancer. Purpose: The author investigated to know the prognostic significance of the expression of p53 and bcl-2 in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer. Method: 84 cases of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded blocks from resected primary non-small cell lung cancer from 1980 to 1994 at Hanyang University Hospital were available for both clinical follow-up and immunohistochemical staining using monoclonal antibodies for p53 and bcl-2. Results : The histologic classification of the tumor was based on WHO criteria., and the specimens included 45 squamous cell carcinomas(53.6%), 28 adeonocarcinomas(33.3%) and 11 large cell carcinomas(13.1 %). p53 immunoreactivity was noted in 47 cases of 84 cases(56.0%). bcl-2 immunoreactivity was noted in 15 cases of 84 cases(17.9%). The mean survival duration was $64.23{\pm}10.73$ months in bcl-2 positive group and $35.28{\pm}4$. 39 months in bcl-2 negative group. The bcl-2 expression was significantly correlated with survival in radically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients(p=0.03). The mean survival duration was $34.71{\pm}6.12$ months in p53 positive group and $45.35{\pm}6.30$ months in p53 negative group(p=0.21). The p53 expression was not predictive for survival. There was no correlation between combination of the different status of p53 and bcl-2 expression in our study. Conclusions : The interaction and the regulation of new biologic markers, such as those involved in the apoptotic pathway, are complex. bcl-2 overexpression is a good prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer and p53 expression is not significantly associated with the prognostic factor in non-small cell lung cancer.

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