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A Methodology of Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty Segmentation (이차원 고객충성도 세그먼트 기반의 고객이탈예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Hyung Su;Hong, Seung Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.111-126
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    • 2020
  • Most industries have recently become aware of the importance of customer lifetime value as they are exposed to a competitive environment. As a result, preventing customers from churn is becoming a more important business issue than securing new customers. This is because maintaining churn customers is far more economical than securing new customers, and in fact, the acquisition cost of new customers is known to be five to six times higher than the maintenance cost of churn customers. Also, Companies that effectively prevent customer churn and improve customer retention rates are known to have a positive effect on not only increasing the company's profitability but also improving its brand image by improving customer satisfaction. Predicting customer churn, which had been conducted as a sub-research area for CRM, has recently become more important as a big data-based performance marketing theme due to the development of business machine learning technology. Until now, research on customer churn prediction has been carried out actively in such sectors as the mobile telecommunication industry, the financial industry, the distribution industry, and the game industry, which are highly competitive and urgent to manage churn. In addition, These churn prediction studies were focused on improving the performance of the churn prediction model itself, such as simply comparing the performance of various models, exploring features that are effective in forecasting departures, or developing new ensemble techniques, and were limited in terms of practical utilization because most studies considered the entire customer group as a group and developed a predictive model. As such, the main purpose of the existing related research was to improve the performance of the predictive model itself, and there was a relatively lack of research to improve the overall customer churn prediction process. In fact, customers in the business have different behavior characteristics due to heterogeneous transaction patterns, and the resulting churn rate is different, so it is unreasonable to assume the entire customer as a single customer group. Therefore, it is desirable to segment customers according to customer classification criteria, such as loyalty, and to operate an appropriate churn prediction model individually, in order to carry out effective customer churn predictions in heterogeneous industries. Of course, in some studies, there are studies in which customers are subdivided using clustering techniques and applied a churn prediction model for individual customer groups. Although this process of predicting churn can produce better predictions than a single predict model for the entire customer population, there is still room for improvement in that clustering is a mechanical, exploratory grouping technique that calculates distances based on inputs and does not reflect the strategic intent of an entity such as loyalties. This study proposes a segment-based customer departure prediction process (CCP/2DL: Customer Churn Prediction based on Two-Dimensional Loyalty segmentation) based on two-dimensional customer loyalty, assuming that successful customer churn management can be better done through improvements in the overall process than through the performance of the model itself. CCP/2DL is a series of churn prediction processes that segment two-way, quantitative and qualitative loyalty-based customer, conduct secondary grouping of customer segments according to churn patterns, and then independently apply heterogeneous churn prediction models for each churn pattern group. Performance comparisons were performed with the most commonly applied the General churn prediction process and the Clustering-based churn prediction process to assess the relative excellence of the proposed churn prediction process. The General churn prediction process used in this study refers to the process of predicting a single group of customers simply intended to be predicted as a machine learning model, using the most commonly used churn predicting method. And the Clustering-based churn prediction process is a method of first using clustering techniques to segment customers and implement a churn prediction model for each individual group. In cooperation with a global NGO, the proposed CCP/2DL performance showed better performance than other methodologies for predicting churn. This churn prediction process is not only effective in predicting churn, but can also be a strategic basis for obtaining a variety of customer observations and carrying out other related performance marketing activities.

Deriving adoption strategies of deep learning open source framework through case studies (딥러닝 오픈소스 프레임워크의 사례연구를 통한 도입 전략 도출)

  • Choi, Eunjoo;Lee, Junyeong;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.27-65
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    • 2020
  • Many companies on information and communication technology make public their own developed AI technology, for example, Google's TensorFlow, Facebook's PyTorch, Microsoft's CNTK. By releasing deep learning open source software to the public, the relationship with the developer community and the artificial intelligence (AI) ecosystem can be strengthened, and users can perform experiment, implementation and improvement of it. Accordingly, the field of machine learning is growing rapidly, and developers are using and reproducing various learning algorithms in each field. Although various analysis of open source software has been made, there is a lack of studies to help develop or use deep learning open source software in the industry. This study thus attempts to derive a strategy for adopting the framework through case studies of a deep learning open source framework. Based on the technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework and literature review related to the adoption of open source software, we employed the case study framework that includes technological factors as perceived relative advantage, perceived compatibility, perceived complexity, and perceived trialability, organizational factors as management support and knowledge & expertise, and environmental factors as availability of technology skills and services, and platform long term viability. We conducted a case study analysis of three companies' adoption cases (two cases of success and one case of failure) and revealed that seven out of eight TOE factors and several factors regarding company, team and resource are significant for the adoption of deep learning open source framework. By organizing the case study analysis results, we provided five important success factors for adopting deep learning framework: the knowledge and expertise of developers in the team, hardware (GPU) environment, data enterprise cooperation system, deep learning framework platform, deep learning framework work tool service. In order for an organization to successfully adopt a deep learning open source framework, at the stage of using the framework, first, the hardware (GPU) environment for AI R&D group must support the knowledge and expertise of the developers in the team. Second, it is necessary to support the use of deep learning frameworks by research developers through collecting and managing data inside and outside the company with a data enterprise cooperation system. Third, deep learning research expertise must be supplemented through cooperation with researchers from academic institutions such as universities and research institutes. Satisfying three procedures in the stage of using the deep learning framework, companies will increase the number of deep learning research developers, the ability to use the deep learning framework, and the support of GPU resource. In the proliferation stage of the deep learning framework, fourth, a company makes the deep learning framework platform that improves the research efficiency and effectiveness of the developers, for example, the optimization of the hardware (GPU) environment automatically. Fifth, the deep learning framework tool service team complements the developers' expertise through sharing the information of the external deep learning open source framework community to the in-house community and activating developer retraining and seminars. To implement the identified five success factors, a step-by-step enterprise procedure for adoption of the deep learning framework was proposed: defining the project problem, confirming whether the deep learning methodology is the right method, confirming whether the deep learning framework is the right tool, using the deep learning framework by the enterprise, spreading the framework of the enterprise. The first three steps (i.e. defining the project problem, confirming whether the deep learning methodology is the right method, and confirming whether the deep learning framework is the right tool) are pre-considerations to adopt a deep learning open source framework. After the three pre-considerations steps are clear, next two steps (i.e. using the deep learning framework by the enterprise and spreading the framework of the enterprise) can be processed. In the fourth step, the knowledge and expertise of developers in the team are important in addition to hardware (GPU) environment and data enterprise cooperation system. In final step, five important factors are realized for a successful adoption of the deep learning open source framework. This study provides strategic implications for companies adopting or using deep learning framework according to the needs of each industry and business.

A study on Broad Quantification Calibration to various isotopes for Quantitative Analysis and its SUVs assessment in SPECT/CT (SPECT/CT 장비에서 정량분석을 위한 핵종 별 Broad Quantification Calibration 시행 및 SUV 평가를 위한 팬텀 실험에 관한 연구)

  • Hyun Soo, Ko;Jae Min, Choi;Soon Ki, Park
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.20-31
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    • 2022
  • Purpose Broad Quantification Calibration(B.Q.C) is the procedure for Quantitative Analysis to measure Standard Uptake Value(SUV) in SPECT/CT scanner. B.Q.C was performed with Tc-99m, I-123, I-131, Lu-177 respectively and then we acquired the phantom images whether the SUVs were measured accurately. Because there is no standard for SUV test in SPECT, we used ACR Esser PET phantom alternatively. The purpose of this study was to lay the groundwork for Quantitative Analysis with various isotopes in SPECT/CT scanner. Materials and Methods Siemens SPECT/CT Symbia Intevo 16 and Intevo Bold were used for this study. The procedure of B.Q.C has two steps; first is point source Sensitivity Cal. and second is Volume Sensitivity Cal. to calculate Volume Sensitivity Factor(VSF) using cylinder phantom. To verify SUV, we acquired the images with ACR Esser PET phantom and then we measured SUVmean on background and SUVmax on hot vials(25, 16, 12, 8 mm). SPSS was used to analyze the difference in the SUV between Intevo 16 and Intevo Bold by Mann-Whitney test. Results The results of Sensitivity(CPS/MBq) and VSF were in Detector 1, 2 of four isotopes (Intevo 16 D1 sensitivity/D2 sensitivity/VSF and Intevo Bold) 87.7/88.6/1.08, 91.9/91.2/1.07 on Tc-99m, 79.9/81.9/0.98, 89.4/89.4/0.98 on I-123, 124.8/128.9/0.69, 130.9, 126.8/0.71, on I-131, 8.7/8.9/1.02, 9.1/8.9/1.00 on Lu-177 respectively. The results of SUV test with ACR Esser PET phantom were (Intevo 16 BKG SUVmean/25mm SUVmax/16mm/12mm/8mm and Intevo Bold) 1.03/2.95/2.41/1.96/1.84, 1.03/2.91/2.38/1.87/1.82 on Tc-99m, 0.97/2.91/2.33/1.68/1.45, 1.00/2.80/2.23/1.57/1.32 on I-123, 0.96/1.61/1.13/1.02/0.69, 0.94/1.54/1.08/0.98/ 0.66 on I-131, 1.00/6.34/4.67/2.96/2.28, 1.01/6.21/4.49/2.86/2.21 on Lu-177. And there was no statistically significant difference of SUV between Intevo 16 and Intevo Bold(p>0.05). Conclusion Only Qualitative Analysis was possible with gamma camera in the past. On the other hand, it's possible to acquire not only anatomic localization, 3D tomography but also Quantitative Analysis with SUV measurements in SPECT/CT scanner. We could lay the groundwork for Quantitative Analysis with various isotopes; Tc-99m, I-123, I-131, Lu-177 by carrying out B.Q.C and could verify the SUV measurement with ACR phantom. It needs periodic calibration to maintain for precision of Quantitative evaluation. As a result, we can provide Quantitative Analysis on follow up scan with the SPECT/CT exams and evaluate the therapeutic response in theranosis.

Emoticon by Emotions: The Development of an Emoticon Recommendation System Based on Consumer Emotions (Emoticon by Emotions: 소비자 감성 기반 이모티콘 추천 시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.227-252
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    • 2018
  • The evolution of instant communication has mirrored the development of the Internet and messenger applications are among the most representative manifestations of instant communication technologies. In messenger applications, senders use emoticons to supplement the emotions conveyed in the text of their messages. The fact that communication via messenger applications is not face-to-face makes it difficult for senders to communicate their emotions to message recipients. Emoticons have long been used as symbols that indicate the moods of speakers. However, at present, emoticon-use is evolving into a means of conveying the psychological states of consumers who want to express individual characteristics and personality quirks while communicating their emotions to others. The fact that companies like KakaoTalk, Line, Apple, etc. have begun conducting emoticon business and sales of related content are expected to gradually increase testifies to the significance of this phenomenon. Nevertheless, despite the development of emoticons themselves and the growth of the emoticon market, no suitable emoticon recommendation system has yet been developed. Even KakaoTalk, a messenger application that commands more than 90% of domestic market share in South Korea, just grouped in to popularity, most recent, or brief category. This means consumers face the inconvenience of constantly scrolling around to locate the emoticons they want. The creation of an emoticon recommendation system would improve consumer convenience and satisfaction and increase the sales revenue of companies the sell emoticons. To recommend appropriate emoticons, it is necessary to quantify the emotions that the consumer sees and emotions. Such quantification will enable us to analyze the characteristics and emotions felt by consumers who used similar emoticons, which, in turn, will facilitate our emoticon recommendations for consumers. One way to quantify emoticons use is metadata-ization. Metadata-ization is a means of structuring or organizing unstructured and semi-structured data to extract meaning. By structuring unstructured emoticon data through metadata-ization, we can easily classify emoticons based on the emotions consumers want to express. To determine emoticons' precise emotions, we had to consider sub-detail expressions-not only the seven common emotional adjectives but also the metaphorical expressions that appear only in South Korean proved by previous studies related to emotion focusing on the emoticon's characteristics. We therefore collected the sub-detail expressions of emotion based on the "Shape", "Color" and "Adumbration". Moreover, to design a highly accurate recommendation system, we considered both emotion-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional indexes. We then identified 14 features of emoticon-technical indexes and selected 36 emotional adjectives. The 36 emotional adjectives consisted of contrasting adjectives, which we reduced to 18, and we measured the 18 emotional adjectives using 40 emoticon sets randomly selected from the top-ranked emoticons in the KakaoTalk shop. We surveyed 277 consumers in their mid-twenties who had experience purchasing emoticons; we recruited them online and asked them to evaluate five different emoticon sets. After data acquisition, we conducted a factor analysis of emoticon-emotional factors. We extracted four factors that we named "Comic", Softness", "Modernity" and "Transparency". We analyzed both the relationship between indexes and consumer attitude and the relationship between emoticon-technical indexes and emoticon-emotional factors. Through this process, we confirmed that the emoticon-technical indexes did not directly affect consumer attitudes but had a mediating effect on consumer attitudes through emoticon-emotional factors. The results of the analysis revealed the mechanism consumers use to evaluate emoticons; the results also showed that consumers' emoticon-technical indexes affected emoticon-emotional factors and that the emoticon-emotional factors affected consumer satisfaction. We therefore designed the emoticon recommendation system using only four emoticon-emotional factors; we created a recommendation method to calculate the Euclidean distance from each factors' emotion. In an attempt to increase the accuracy of the emoticon recommendation system, we compared the emotional patterns of selected emoticons with the recommended emoticons. The emotional patterns corresponded in principle. We verified the emoticon recommendation system by testing prediction accuracy; the predictions were 81.02% accurate in the first result, 76.64% accurate in the second, and 81.63% accurate in the third. This study developed a methodology that can be used in various fields academically and practically. We expect that the novel emoticon recommendation system we designed will increase emoticon sales for companies who conduct business in this domain and make consumer experiences more convenient. In addition, this study served as an important first step in the development of an intelligent emoticon recommendation system. The emotional factors proposed in this study could be collected in an emotional library that could serve as an emotion index for evaluation when new emoticons are released. Moreover, by combining the accumulated emotional library with company sales data, sales information, and consumer data, companies could develop hybrid recommendation systems that would bolster convenience for consumers and serve as intellectual assets that companies could strategically deploy.

Analysis of Research Trends in Journal of Distribution Science (유통과학연구의 연구 동향 분석 : 창간호부터 제8권 제3호까지를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Young-Min;Kim, Young-Ei;Youn, Myoung-Kil
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2010
  • This study investigated research trends of JDS that KODISA published and gave implications to elevate quality of scholarly journals. In other words, the study classified scientific system of distribution area to investigate research trends and to compare it with other scholarly journals of distribution and to give implications for higher level of JDS. KODISA published JDS Vol.1 No.1 for the first time in 1999 followed by Vol.8 No.3 in September 2010 to show 109 theses in total. KODISA investigated subjects, research institutions, number of participants, methodology, frequency of theses in both the Korean language and English, frequency of participation of not only the Koreans but also foreigners and use of references, etc. And, the study investigated JDR of KODIA, JKDM(The Journal of Korean Distribution & Management) and JDA that researched distribution, so that it found out development ways. To investigate research trends of JDS that KODISA publishes, main category was made based on the national science and technology standard classification system of MEST (Ministry Of Education, Science And Technology), table of classification of research areas of NRF(National Research Foundation of Korea), research classification system of both KOREADIMA and KLRA(Korea Logistics Research Association) and distribution science and others that KODISA is looking for, and distribution economy area was divided into general distribution, distribution economy, distribution, distribution information and others, and distribution management was divided into distribution management, marketing, MD and purchasing, consumer behavior and others. The findings were as follow: Firstly, main category occupied 47 theses (43.1%) of distribution economy and 62 theses (56.9%) of distribution management among 109 theses in total. Active research area of distribution economy consisted of 14 theses (12.8%) of distribution information and 9 theses (8.3%) of distribution economy to research distribution as well as distribution information positively every year. The distribution management consisted of 25 theses (22.9%) of distribution management and 20 theses (18.3%) of marketing, These days, research on distribution management, marketing, distribution, distribution information and others is increasing. Secondly, researchers published theses as follow: 55 theses (50.5%) by professor by himself or herself, 12 theses (11.0%) of joint research by professors and businesses, Professors/students published 9 theses (8.3%) followed by 5 theses (4.6%) of researchers, 5 theses (4.6%) of businesses, 4 theses (3.7%) of professors, researchers and businesses and 2 theses (1.8%) of students. Professors published theses less, while businesses, research institutions and graduate school students did more continuously. The number of researchers occupied single researcher (43 theses, 39.5%), two researchers (42 theses, 38.5%) and three researchers or more (24 theses, 22.0%). Thirdly, professors published theses the most at most of areas. Researchers of main category of distribution economy consisted of professors (25 theses, 53.2%), professors and businesses (7 theses, 14.9%), professors and businesses (7 theses, 14.9%), professors and researchers (6 theses, 12.8%) and professors and students (3 theses, 6.3%). And, researchers of main category of distribution management consisted of professors (30 theses, 48.4%), professors and businesses (10 theses, 16.1%), and professors and researchers as well as professors and students (6 theses, 9.7%). Researchers of distribution management consisted of professors, professors and businesses, professors and researchers, researchers and businesses, etc to have various types. Professors mainly researched marketing, MD and purchasing, and consumer behavior, etc to demand active participation of businesses and researchers. Fourthly, research methodology was: Literature research occupied 45 theses (41.3%) the most followed by empirical research based on questionnaire survey (44 theses, 40.4%). General distribution, distribution economy, distribution and distribution management, etc mostly adopted literature research, while marketing did empirical research based on questionnaire survey the most. Fifthly, theses in the Korean language occupied 92.7% (101 theses), while those in English did 7.3% (8 theses). No more than one thesis in English was published until 2006, and 7 theses (11.9%) were published after 2007 to increase. The theses in English were published more to be affirmative. Foreigner researcher published one thesis (0.9%) and both Korean researchers and foreigner researchers jointly published two theses (1.8%) to have very much low participation of foreigner researchers. Sixthly, one thesis of JDS had 27.5 references in average that consisted of 11.1 local references and 16.4 foreign references. And, cited times was 0.4 thesis in average to be low. The distribution economy cited 24.2 references in average (9.4 local references and 14.8 foreign references and JDS had 0.6 cited reference. The distribution management had 30.0 references in average (12.1 local references and 17.9 foreign references) and had 0.3 reference of JDS itself. Seventhly, similar type of scholarly journal had theses in the Korean language and English: JDR( Journal of Distribution Research) of KODIA(Korea Distribution Association) published 92 theses in the Korean language (96.8%) and 3 theses in English (3.2%), that is to say, 95 theses in total. JKDM of KOREADIMA published 132 theses in total that consisted of 93 theses in the Korean language (70.5%) and 39 theses in English (29.5%). Since 2008, JKDM has published scholarly journal in English one time every year. JDS published 52 theses in the Korean language (88.1%) and 7 theses in English (11.9%), that is to say, 59 theses in total. Sixthly, similar type of scholarly journals and research methodology were: JDR's research methodology had 65 empirical researches based on questionnaire survey (68.4%), followed by 17 literature researches (17.9%) and 11 quantitative analyses (11.6%). JKDM made use of various kinds of research methodologies to have 60 questionnaire surveys (45.5%), followed by 40 literature researches (30.3%), 21 quantitative analyses (15.9%), 6 system analyses (4.5%) and 5 case studies (3.8%). And, JDS made use of 30 questionnaire surveys (50.8%), followed by 15 literature researches (25.4%), 7 case studies (11.9%) and 6 quantitative analyses (10.2%). Ninthly, similar types of scholarly journals and Korean researchers and foreigner researchers were: JDR published 93 theses (97.8%) by Korean researchers except for 1 thesis by foreigner researcher and 1 thesis by joint research of the Korean researchers and foreigner researchers. And, JKDM had no foreigner research and 13 theses (9.8%) by joint research of the Korean researchers and foreigner researchers to have more foreigner researchers as well as researchers in foreign countries than similar types of scholarly journals had. And, JDS published 56 theses (94.9%) of the Korean researchers, one thesis (1.7%) of foreigner researcher only, and 2 theses (3.4%) of joint research of both the Koreans and foreigners. Tenthly, similar type of scholarly journals and reference had citation: JDR had 42.5 literatures in average that consisted of 10.9 local literatures (25.7%) and 31.6 foreign literatures (74.3%), and cited times accounted for 1.1 thesis to decrease. JKDM cited 10.5 Korean literatures (36.3%) and 18.4 foreign literatures (63.7%), and number of self-cited literature was no more than 1.1. Number of cited times accounted for 2.9 literatures in 2008 and then decreased continuously since then. JDS cited 26,8 references in average that consisted of 10.9 local references (40.7%) and 15.9 foreign references (59.3%), and number of self-cited accounted for 0.2 reference until 2009, and it increased to be 2.1 references in 2010. The author gives implications based on JDS research trends and investigation on similar type of scholarly journals as follow: Firstly, JDS shall actively invite foreign contributors to prepare for SSCI. Secondly, ratio of theses in English shall increase greatly. Thirdly, various kinds of research methodology shall be accepted to elevate quality of scholarly journals. Fourthly, to increase cited times, Google and other web retrievals shall be reinforced to supply scholarly journals to foreign countries more. Local scholarly journals can be worldwide scholarly journal enough to be acknowledged even in foreign countries by improving the implications above.

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History of Plant Protection Science since 1900 in Korea (한국(韓國)에 있어서의 식물보호(植物保護) 연구사(硏究史) -1900년대(年代)를 중심(中心)으로-)

  • Park, Jong-Seong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.69-95
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    • 1979
  • The study was conducted to search developmental process of plant protection science from review of forty-three hundreds literatures presented since 1900 in Korea and to forecast future statues of the science to be done. About 80 percent of literatures related to plant protection science such as plant pathology, applied entomology, weed science and agricultural pharmacology were collected from publications of agricultural and forestry reseach organizations attached to Office of Rural Development and Office of Forestry. The rest of literatures were mainly collected from Korean Journal of Plant Protection Society and small number of literatures were also collected from publications of the other journals of crop science and thesis collection of agricultural colleges. In Korea, research organizations of plant protection science are divided into two main groups such as exclusive agricultural research organizations and agricultural colleges. It is pointed out that the former contributions to plant protection science are very great compared to those of the latter since 1900. From periodical consideration of developmental process of the science since 1900, the history or the science are divided into three eras such as introduction and sprout of modern plant protection science during the first forty years, distress of the science during the following twenty years including the Second World War and the Korean War and rapid growth of the science after 1961. In spite of long time distress of the science during the Second World War and the Korean War, the researches on plant protection science in post-war have been done twice as many as pre-war. From consideration of the subject plants in researches of plant protection, it is shown that a great many researches on protection of rice plant have been done and occupy 37 percent of plant protection researches since 1900. And also researches on protection of fruit-trees and cash-crops are not so many as those of rice plant but have been done in noticeable numbers. In fact, researches on protection of fruit-trees and cashcrops were the most important subjects of plant protection researches in pre-war while those of rice plant were the most important subjects after 1930, particulary in post-war. From consideration of contents of plant protection researches, it is said that more fundamental researches than applied ones such as practical control methods of diseases, insect pests and weeds were done in pre-war while more applied researches than fundamental ones were done in post-war, Among applied researches, those of chemical control were the most important subjects. Researches on disease and insect-pest resistance have been done in both pre-war and post-war while researches on forecasting of disease and insect-pest and race of plant pathogens have been done in post-war. And also researches on weed control mainly have been done after 1960. Researches on agricultural chemicals for control of diseases, insect pests and weeds still belong to a new field which must be expected in future, and there is nothing to notice with the exception of practical application of agricultural chemicals introduced from foreign countries. Some of important researches on diseases and insect pests were discussed in relation to developmental process of plant protection science in Korea since 1900. In future, researches on plant protection will be develop to the direction supporting importance of integrated control for plant protection. Therefore, it is pointed out that security of highly educated and trained scientists with enlargement of reseach fields of plant protection science are necessary and role of agricultural colleges for future development of the science must be emphasized.

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Development of Yóukè Mining System with Yóukè's Travel Demand and Insight Based on Web Search Traffic Information (웹검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 유커 인바운드 여행 수요 예측 모형 및 유커마이닝 시스템 개발)

  • Choi, Youji;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.155-175
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    • 2017
  • As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.

Clustering Method based on Genre Interest for Cold-Start Problem in Movie Recommendation (영화 추천 시스템의 초기 사용자 문제를 위한 장르 선호 기반의 클러스터링 기법)

  • You, Tithrottanak;Rosli, Ahmad Nurzid;Ha, Inay;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.57-77
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    • 2013
  • Social media has become one of the most popular media in web and mobile application. In 2011, social networks and blogs are still the top destination of online users, according to a study from Nielsen Company. In their studies, nearly 4 in 5active users visit social network and blog. Social Networks and Blogs sites rule Americans' Internet time, accounting to 23 percent of time spent online. Facebook is the main social network that the U.S internet users spend time more than the other social network services such as Yahoo, Google, AOL Media Network, Twitter, Linked In and so on. In recent trend, most of the companies promote their products in the Facebook by creating the "Facebook Page" that refers to specific product. The "Like" option allows user to subscribed and received updates their interested on from the page. The film makers which produce a lot of films around the world also take part to market and promote their films by exploiting the advantages of using the "Facebook Page". In addition, a great number of streaming service providers allows users to subscribe their service to watch and enjoy movies and TV program. They can instantly watch movies and TV program over the internet to PCs, Macs and TVs. Netflix alone as the world's leading subscription service have more than 30 million streaming members in the United States, Latin America, the United Kingdom and the Nordics. As the matter of facts, a million of movies and TV program with different of genres are offered to the subscriber. In contrast, users need spend a lot time to find the right movies which are related to their interest genre. Recent years there are many researchers who have been propose a method to improve prediction the rating or preference that would give the most related items such as books, music or movies to the garget user or the group of users that have the same interest in the particular items. One of the most popular methods to build recommendation system is traditional Collaborative Filtering (CF). The method compute the similarity of the target user and other users, which then are cluster in the same interest on items according which items that users have been rated. The method then predicts other items from the same group of users to recommend to a group of users. Moreover, There are many items that need to study for suggesting to users such as books, music, movies, news, videos and so on. However, in this paper we only focus on movie as item to recommend to users. In addition, there are many challenges for CF task. Firstly, the "sparsity problem"; it occurs when user information preference is not enough. The recommendation accuracies result is lower compared to the neighbor who composed with a large amount of ratings. The second problem is "cold-start problem"; it occurs whenever new users or items are added into the system, which each has norating or a few rating. For instance, no personalized predictions can be made for a new user without any ratings on the record. In this research we propose a clustering method according to the users' genre interest extracted from social network service (SNS) and user's movies rating information system to solve the "cold-start problem." Our proposed method will clusters the target user together with the other users by combining the user genre interest and the rating information. It is important to realize a huge amount of interesting and useful user's information from Facebook Graph, we can extract information from the "Facebook Page" which "Like" by them. Moreover, we use the Internet Movie Database(IMDb) as the main dataset. The IMDbis online databases that consist of a large amount of information related to movies, TV programs and including actors. This dataset not only used to provide movie information in our Movie Rating Systems, but also as resources to provide movie genre information which extracted from the "Facebook Page". Formerly, the user must login with their Facebook account to login to the Movie Rating System, at the same time our system will collect the genre interest from the "Facebook Page". We conduct many experiments with other methods to see how our method performs and we also compare to the other methods. First, we compared our proposed method in the case of the normal recommendation to see how our system improves the recommendation result. Then we experiment method in case of cold-start problem. Our experiment show that our method is outperform than the other methods. In these two cases of our experimentation, we see that our proposed method produces better result in case both cases.

A Study of the Time-Space and Appreciation for the Performance Culture of Gwanseo Region in Late Joseon Period: Focusing on Analysis of Terminology (조선후기 관서지방의 공연 시공간과 향유에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Hye-jin
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.22
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    • pp.287-325
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    • 2011
  • This paper studies the time-space and appreciation of the performance culture of Gwanseo region, which is considered to have formed a characteristic culture in late Joseon period. For this purpose, 4 gasa written in hangeul (Korean alphabet), as well as 4 yeonhaeng gasa, 108 articles of Gwanseoakbu were examined. Plus, among the 9 types of yeonhaengrok (Documents of Performance culture) written in Chinese character, those parts which describe the performance traits have been analyzed. Then, 'main list of terminology' has been deduced based on the categorization according to the following points : 1) subjects of performance and appreciation 2) time and period of performance 3) space of performance 4) contents of performance 5) background and motive for performance and 6) method of performance. Through this process, various 'nouns' and 'predicate verbs' in relation to performance culture emerged, which were systemized according to types of performance elements and categories. Major terminology includes predicate verbs and symbolic verbs such as nokuihongsang,' 'baekdaehongjang,' 'jeolsaekgeumga,' 'cheonga,' 'hwaryu,' 'gamuja,' and 'tongsoja,' as well as the terms already known such as gisaeng, iwon, yangbang, akgong, and jeonak, which refer to musicians and dancers. Subjects of performance were divided into performers and listeners, categorized into concert, music, and dance, according to performance form. In the case for music, it was divided into instrumental or vocal, solo or accompanied (byeongju, self-accompaniment). In the case for vocal music, noteworthy was the inclusion of profesional artist's singing (called gwangdae or uchang). The record of 23 names of popular artists from Gwanseo region, with mention of special talents for each person, reflects the degree of activeness and artistic level of the province. Depending on the appreciating patrons, the audience were indicated as the terms including 'yugaek (party guest),' jwasang,' 'on jwaseok,' and 'sonnim (guests).' It seems that appraisal for a certain performance was very much affected by the tastes, views, and disposition of the appreciating patrons. Therefore it is interesting to observe different comparative reviews of concerts of different regions given by literary figures, offering various criticism on identical performance. In terms of performance space, it has been divided into natural or architectural space, doing justice to special performance sites such as a famous pavilion or an on-the-boat performance. Specific terms related to the scale and brightness of stage, as well as stage props and cast, based on descriptions of performance space were found. The performance space, including famous pavilions; Yeongwangjeong, Bubyeokru, Baeksangru, Wolparu, and Uigeomjeong, which are all well-known tourist sites of Gwanseo province, have been often visited by viceroys. governors, and envoys during a tour or trip. This, and the fact that full-scale performances were regularly held here, and that more than 15 different kinds of boats which were used for boat concert are mentioned, all confirm the general popularity of boat concerts at the time. Performance time, categorized by season or time of day (am/pm/night) and analyzed in terms of time of occurrence and duration, there were no special limitation as to when to have a performance. Most morning concerts were held as part of official duties for the envoys, after their meeting session, whereas evening concerts were more lengthy in duration, with a greater number of people in the audience. In the case of boat concert, samples include day-time concert and performances that began during the day and which lasted till later in the evening. Major terminology related to performance time and season includes descriptions of time of day (morning, evening, night) and mention of sunset, twilight, moonlight, stars, candles, and lamps. Such terms which reflect the flow of time contributed in making a concert more lively. Terminology for the contents of performance was mostly words like 'instrumental,' 'pungak,' or 'pungnyu.' Besides, contextual expressions gave hints as to whether there were dance, singing, ensemble, solo, and duets. Words for dance and singing used in Gwanseo province were almost identical to those used for gasa and jeongjae in the capital, Hanyang. However, many sentences reveal that performances of 'hangjangmu' of hongmunyeon, sword dance, and baettaragi were on a top-quality level. Moreover, chants in hanmun Chinese character and folk songs, which are characteristic for this region, show unique features of local musical performance. It is judged that understanding the purpose and background of a performance is important in grasping the foundation and continuity of local culture. Concerts were usually either related to official protocol for 'greeting,' 'sending-off,' 'reports,' and 'patrols' or for private enjoyment. The rituals for Gwanseo province characteristically features river crossing ceremony on the Daedong river, which has been closely documented by many. What is more, the Gwanseo region featured continued coming and goings of Pyeongan envoys and local officers, as well as ambassadors to and fro China, which required an organized and full-scale performance of music and dance. The method of performance varied from a large-scale, official ones, for which female entertainers and a great banquet in addition to musicians were required, to private gatherings that are more intimate. A performance may take the form of 'taking turns' or 'a competition,' reflecting the dynamic nature of the musical culture at the time. This study, which is deduction of terminology in relation to the time-space and appreciation culture of musical performances of Gwanseo region in late Joseon period, should be expanded in the future into research on 'the performance culture unique to Gwanseo region,' in relation to the financial and administrative aspects of the province, as well as everyday lifestyle. Furthermore, it could proceed to a more intensive research by a comparative study with related literary documents and pictorial data, which could serve as the foundation for understanding the use of space and stage, as well as the performance format characteristic to Korean traditional performing arts.

Attitude Confidence and User Resistance for Purchasing Wearable Devices on Virtual Reality: Based on Virtual Reality Headgears (가상현실 웨어러블 기기의 구매 촉진을 위한 태도 자신감과 사용자 저항 태도: 가상현실 헤드기어를 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Bong-Jin;Park, Da-Sul;Choi, Jaewon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.165-183
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    • 2016
  • Over the past decade, there has been a rapid diffusion of technological devices and a rising number of various devices, resulting in an escalation of virtual reality technology. Technological market has rapidly been changed from smartphone to wearable devices based on virtual reality. Virtual reality can make users feel real situation through sensing interaction, voice, motion capture and so on. Facebook.com, Google, Samsung, LG, Sony and so on have investigated developing platform of virtual reality. the pricing of virtual reality devices also had decreased into 30% from their launched period. Thus market infrastructure in virtual reality have rapidly been developed to crease marketplace. However, most consumers recognize that virtual reality is not ease to purchase or use. That could not lead consumers to positive attitude for devices and purchase the related devices in the early market. Through previous studies related to virtual reality, there are few studies focusing on why the devices for virtual reality stayed in early stage in adoption & diffusion context in the market. Almost previous studies considered the reasons of hard adoption for innovative products in the viewpoints of Typology of Innovation Resistance, MIR(Management of Innovation Resistant), UTAUT & UTAUT2. However, product-based antecedents also important to increase user intention to purchase and use products in the technological market. In this study, we focus on user acceptance and resistance for increasing purchase and usage promotions of wearable devices related to virtual reality based on headgear products like Galaxy Gear. Especially, we added a variables like attitude confidence as a dimension for user resistance. The research questions of this study are follows. First, how attitude confidence and innovativeness resistance affect user intention to use? Second, What factors related to content and brand contexts can affect user intention to use? This research collected data from the participants who have experiences using virtual rality headgears aged between 20s to 50s located in South Korea. In order to collect data, this study used a pilot test and through making face-to-face interviews on three specialists, face validity and content validity were evaluated for the questionnaire validity. Cleansing the data, we dropped some outliers and data of irrelevant papers. Totally, 156 responses were used for testing the suggested hypotheses. Through collecting data, demographics and the relationships among variables were analyzed through conducting structural equation modeling by PLS. The data showed that the sex of respondents who have experience using social commerce sites (male=86(55.1%), female=70(44.9%). The ages of respondents are mostly from 20s (74.4%) to 30s (16.7%). 126 respondents (80.8%) have used virtual reality devices. The results of our model estimation are as follows. With the exception of Hypothesis 1 and 7, which deals with the two relationships between brand awareness to attitude confidence, and quality of content to perceived enjoyment, all of our hypotheses were supported. In compliance with our hypotheses, perceived ease of use (H2) and use innovativeness (H3) were supported with its positively influence for the attitude confidence. This finding indicates that the more ease of use and innovativeness for devices increased, the more users' attitude confidence increased. Perceived price (H4), enjoyment (H5), Quantity of contents (H6) significantly increase user resistance. However, perceived price positively affect user innovativeness resistance meanwhile perceived enjoyment and quantity of contents negatively affect user innovativeness resistance. In addition, aesthetic exterior (H6) was also positively associated with perceived price (p<0.01). Also projection quality (H8) can increase perceived enjoyment (p<0.05). Finally, attitude confidence (H10) increased user intention to use virtual reality devices. however user resistance (H11) negatively affect user intention to use virtual reality devices. The findings of this study show that attitude confidence and user innovativeness resistance differently influence customer intention for using virtual reality devices. There are two distinct characteristic of attitude confidence: perceived ease of use and user innovativeness. This study identified the antecedents of different roles of perceived price (aesthetic exterior) and perceived enjoyment (quality of contents & projection quality). The findings indicated that brand awareness and quality of contents for virtual reality is not formed within virtual reality market yet. Therefore, firms should developed brand awareness for their product in the virtual market to increase market share.