• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.287-297
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• 2007

Increasing carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change has been perturbing the balanced global carbon cycle and changing the carbon distribution among the atmosphere, the terrestrial biosphere, the soil, and the ocean. SGCM(Simple Global Carbon Model) was used to simulate global carbon cycle for the IPCC emissions scenarios, which was six future carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use and land-use change set by IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Atmospheric $CO_2$ concentrations for four scenarios were simulated to continuously increase to $600{\sim}1050ppm$ by the year 2100, while those for the other two scenarios to stabilize at $400{\sim}600ppm$. The characteristics of these two $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios are to suppress emissions below $12{\sim}13$ Gt C/yr by tile year 2050 and then to decrease emissions up to 5 Gt C/yr by the year 2100, which is lower than the current emissions of $6.3{\pm}0.4$ Gt C/yr. The amount of carbon in the atmosphere was simulated to continuously increase for four scenarios, while to increase by the year $2050{\sim}2070$ and then decrease by the year 2100 for the other two scenarios which were $CO_2$-stabilized scenarios. Even though the six emission scenarios showed different simulation results, overall patterns were such similar that the amount of carbon was in the terrestrial biosphere to decrease first several decades and then increase, while in the soil and the ocean to continuously increase. The ratio of carbon partitioning to tile atmosphere for the accumulated total emissions was higher for tile emission scenario having higher atmospheric $CO_2$, however that was decreasing as time elapsed. The terrestrial biosphere and the soil showed reverse pattern to the atmosphere.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.507-524
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• 2008

In this paper, future climate changes over East Asia($20^{\circ}{\sim}50^{\circ}N$, $100^{\circ}{\sim}150^{\circ}E$) are projected by anthropogenic forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols using coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1, A1B and A2 scenarios. Before projection future climate, model performance is assessed by the $20^{th}$ Century (20C3M) experiment with bias, root Mean Square Error (RMSE), ratio of standard deviation, Taylor diagram analysis. The result of examination of the seasonal uncertainty of T2m and PCP shows that cold bias, lowered than that of observation, of T2m and wet bias, larger than that of observation, of PCP are found over East Asia. The largest wet bias is found in winter and the largest cold bias is found in summer. The RMSE of temperature in the annual mean increases and this trend happens in winter, too. That is, higher resolution model shows generally better performances in simulation T2m and PCP. Based on IPCC SRES scenarios, East Asia will experience warmer and wetter climate in the coming $21^{st}$ century. It is predict the T2m increase in East Asia is larger than global mean temperature. As the latitude goes high, the warming over the continents of East Asia showed much more increase than that over the ocean. An enhanced land-sea contrast is proposed as a possible mechanism of the intensified Asian summer monsoon. But, the inter-model variability in PCP changes is large.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.188-200
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• 2014

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis) was accepted at the 36th Session of the IPCC on 26 September 2013 in Stockholm, Sweden. It consists of the full scientific and technical assessment undertaken by Working Group I. This comprehensive assessment of the physical aspects of climate change puts a focus on those elements that are relevant to understand past, document current, and project future of climate change. The assessment builds on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the recent Special Report on Managing the Risk of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. The assessment covers the current knowledge of various processes within, and interactions among, climate system components, which determine the sensitivity and response of the system to changes in forcing, and they quantify the link between the changes in atmospheric constituents, and hence radiative forcing, and the consequent detection and attribution of climate change. Projections of changes in all climate system components are based on model simulations forced by a new set of scenarios. The report also provides a comprehensive assessment of past and future sea level change in a dedicated chapter. The primary purpose of this Technical Summary is to provide the link between the complete assessment of the multiple lines of independent evidence presented in the main report and the highly condensed summary prepared as Policy makers Summary. The Technical Summary thus serves as a starting point for those readers who seek the full information on more specific topics covered by this assessment. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased. Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of $CO_2$ since 1750. Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. The in-depth review for past, present and future of climate change is carried out on the basis of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제49권6호
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• pp.551-563
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• 2016

기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC)의 4차 및 5차 보고서에 따르면 인류 활동에 의한 기후변화가 산업혁명 이후 급속하게 진행되고 있다고 한다. 기후변화는 주로 온도와 이산화탄소 농도의 변화로 감지되는데, 지난 100여년 간 지구 평균 온도는 $0.74^{\circ}C$ 상승하였으며, 대기 중 이산화탄소의 농도는 최소 800,000년 동안의 최대치를 기록하였다 (IPCC, 2007, 2014). 이러한 기후 변화는 수문학 연구에서 중요한 강수, 증발산, 토양수분 등에도 커다란 영향을 미치므로 이에 대한 꾸준한 연구가 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 아시아 지역을 대상으로 1951년부터 2100년까지의 주요 에너지 인자들에 대한 모의를 실시하였다. 전 세계적으로 다양한 분야에서 사용되고 있는 Common Land Model을 미래 예측을 위한 기반으로 활용하였으며, 강제입력자료는 기후변화에 대응하기 위하여 IPCC 5차 보고서에 소개된 가장 최신의 온실가스 시나리오인 대표농도경로 (Representative Concentration Pathway; RCP)를 활용하였다. 과거 기간에 대한 순복사량, 현열 및 잠열에 대한 검증은 Asiaflux 사이트에 속한 5개 지점의 자료를 활용하여 수행하였으며, 모든 인자들에 대하여 모형의 월별 경향성이 관측 자료와 거의 일치함을 확인하였다. 미래 기간의 모의에 대해서는 RCP 4.5 및 RCP 8.5를 활용한 모의 모두 순복사량은 거의 변화가 없었으며 현열은 대체적으로 하강하는 경향을, 이와 대조적으로 잠열의 경우에는 상승하는 경향을 나타내었다. 특히 RCP 8.5를 활용한 결과에서 이 증감폭은 더 크게 나타났으며, 2060년대 후반부터 순복사량과 현열의 변동성이 매우 커지는 등의 극한기후의 특징을 나타내는 것으로 보인다. 추후 연구에서는 본 연구를 토대로 다양한 시나리오를 활용하여 더욱 다양한 조건하에서의 에너지 인자 및 다른 수문학적 주요 인자들에 대한 모의를 수행할 예정이다.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권10호
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• pp.6959-6968
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• 2015

이 연구는 기존의 목제품 수급모형(FOSMO2013)을 갱신하고, 제품별로 중장기적인 수요와 공급을 전망하는데 목적이 있다. 목제품 시장 수급모형은 주요 제품인 제재목, 합판, 파티클보드, 섬유판, 펄프 등으로 한정하였다. 각각의 제품에 대해 공급함수, 수입수요함수, 수요함수 등을 최신 자료를 이용하여 갱신하였다. 외생변수 가운데 하나인 세계 목재 및 목제품에 대한 가격 전망치는 Buongiorno 등(2012)의 연구결과를 적용하였다. Buongiorno의 연구는 기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체(IPCC) 시나리오 3개(A1B, A2, B2)와 연료목재 수요에 대한 가정을 변경한 시나리오(A1B_LF)를 추가하여 전망결과를 발표하였는데, 본 연구의 전망치도 이와 같은 시나리오를 반영하여 2050년까지 총 4개의 시나리오에 따른 결과를 전망하였다. 전망 결과 국내 목재 및 목제품에 대한 장기 전망치는 시나리오와 제품별 차이는 있지만 대체적으로 생산은 감소하고 수입은 증가할 것으로 예상되었다.

• Advances in environmental research
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.97-107
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• 2020

The indiscriminate growth in global population poses a threat to the world in handling and disposal of Municipal solid waste. Rapid urban growth increases the production, consumption and generation of Municipal solid waste which leads to a drastic change in the environment. The methane produced from the Municipal Solid waste accounts for up to 11% global anthropogenic emissions, which is a major cause for global warming. This study reports the methane emission estimation using IPCC default, TNO, LandGEM, EPER and close flux chamber from open dump yards at Perungudi and Kodungaiyur in Chennai, India. The result reveals that the methane emission using close flux chamber was in the range of 8.8 Gg/yr-11.3 Gg/yr and 6.1Gg/yr to 9.1 Gg/yr at Kodungaiyur and Perungudi dump yard respectively. The per capita waste generation was estimated based on waste generation and population. The waste generation potential was projected using linear regression model for the period 2017-2050. The trend of CH₄ emission in the actual field measurement were increased every year, similarly the emission trend also increased in IPCC default method (mass balance approach), EPER Germany (zero order decay model) where as TNO and Land GEM (first order decay model) were decreased. The present study reveals that Kodungaiyur dump yard is more vulnerable to methane emission compared to Perungudi dump yard and has more potential in waste to energy conversion mechanisms than compare to Perungudi dump yard.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제29권2B호
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• pp.181-191
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 2007년 IPCC AR4와 함께 제시된 SRES A2 시나리오를 이용해서 기후변화가 한반도 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위한 방안을 제시하고자 한다. IPCC는 DDC를 통해서 총 24개의 기후모형의 결과를 월 단위로제공하고 있다. 이 중 노르웨이 BCCR의 BCM2 모형과 NCEP 자료를 이용하여 최근린법(K-NN)과 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network)이론을 적용함으로써, 온도와 강수량을 기상청 산하 서울지점으로 축소하였다. 최근린법의 경우, 온도와 강수량 모두를 축소하는 것이 가능하였지만, 인공신경망이론을 적용하여 축소할 경우, 온도는 비교적 잘 축소하였으나 강수량의 경우는 발산하는 결과를 보였다. 마지막으로 기후변화가 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해서 최근린법으로부터 축소된 월 단위 강수량을 이용하여 서울지점의 표준강수지수를 산정하였다. BCM2 모형에 의하면 서울지점의 경우, 미래에는 전반적으로 온도가 증가하고 가뭄의 지속기간이 길어짐에 따라 가뭄이 더욱더 심각하게 된다는 결과를 예측하였다.

• 한국제4기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국제4기학회 2004년도 하계학술대회
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• pp.29-29
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• 2004

Long term observational analysis by climatologists has confirmedthat the global warming is no longer a topic of debate among scientists andpolicy makers. According to the report of IPCC-2001 (Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change), the global mean surface air temperature is increasinggradually. The reported increase of mean temperature is by 0.6 degree in the end of twentieth century. This could represent severe threat for propertylosses especially due to increase in the number of extreme weather arising out of global warming. period of model integration from 2001 to 2100 using output of ECHAM4/HOPE-G of Max Planet Institute of Meteorology (MPI) for IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios). The main results of this study indicate increase of surface air temperature by 6.20C and precipitation by 2.6% over Korea in the end of 21st century. Simulation results also show that there is increase in daily maximum and minimum temperatures while decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR). DTR changes are diminished mainly due to relatively rapid increase of daily minimum temperature than that of daily maximumtemperature. It has been observed that increase in precipitation amount anddecrease in the number of rainy days lead to increase of pre precipitationintensity.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.409-415
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• 2012

Post-kyoto regime has been discussing with the GHG reduction commitment. GHG energy target management system also has been applied for the domestic measures in the country. Universities are major emission sources for GHG. It is very important for campus to built the GHG inventory system and estimate the potential GHG emission reduction. In general, GHG inventory on the campus was taken by the IPCC guidance with the classification of scope 1, 2, and 3. Electricity was the highest portion of GHG emission on the campus as 5,053.90 $tonsCO_2eq/yr$ in 2009. Manufacturing sector was the second high emission and meant GHG in laboratory. Potential GHG reduction was planned by several assumptions such as installation of occupancy sensor, exchanging LED lamp and photovoltaic power generation. These reduction scenarios was simulated by LEAP model. In 2020, outlook of GHG emission was estimated by 17,435.98 tons of $CO_2$ without any plans of reduction. If the reduction scenarios was applied in 2020, GHG emission would be 16,507.60 tons of $CO_2$ as 5.3% potential reduction.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.410-410
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• 2019

기후변화는 전 지구적인 환경문제 중 하나이며 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 4차 평가보고서에서는 인류가 직면한 최대 위협이라고 하였다. 또한, IPCC는 현재 기후변화에 의한 영향은 명백히 나타나고 있으며 향후 기후변화에 의한 기상이변 예측과 적응 정책 및 조치가 중요하다고 권고하였다. 적응 정책 및 조치를 위한 기후변화의 영향분석은 우리나라에서도 많이 진행하고 있으나 개별 및 분류의 선형의 순차적 관계에 따라 개발 및 적용되고 있다. 기후변화는 자연생태계와 인간 활동의 복잡한 상호작용에 의해 발생하기에 개별적 연구 보다는 타 부문의 영향 및 결과가 환류되고 반영되어야 한다. 따라서 기후변화 영향평가는 농업, 물, 산림, 생태, 건강 등 다양한 부문 내/간 상호작용을 고려할 수 있는 통합 평가 방법이 필요하다. 통합 평가를 위해 플랫폼 개발은 필수적이며, 신속한 분석을 위해서는 개별 부문의 상세모델을 모방한 메타모델이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 미래 기후변화에 따른 영향을 통합적으로 평가하기 위한 메타모델을 개발하고, 상호 연결을 통해 다양한 연계양상을 평가하고자 한다.