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Application of multiple linear regression and artificial neural network models to forecast long-term precipitation in the Geum River basin (다중회귀모형과 인공신경망모형을 이용한 금강권역 강수량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.723-736
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    • 2022
  • In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

An Evaluation of Allowable Bearing Capacity of Weathered Rock by Large-Scale Plate-Bearing Test and Numerical Analysis (대형평판재하시험 및 수치해석에 의한 풍화암 허용지지력 평가)

  • Hong, Seung-Hyeun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.10
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    • pp.61-74
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    • 2022
  • Considering that the number of cases in which a structure foundation is located on weathered rock has been increasing recently, for adequate design bearing capacity of a foundation on weathered rock, allowable bearing capacities of such foundations in geotechnical investigation reports were studied. With reference to the study results, the allowable bearing capacity of a foundation on weathered rock was approximately 400-700 kN/m2, with a large variation, and was considered a conservative value. Because the allowable bearing capacity of the foundation ground is an important index in determining the foundation type in the early design stage, it can have a significant influence on the construction cost and period according to the initial decision. Thus, in this study, six large-scale plate-bearing tests were conducted on weathered rock, and the bearing capacity and settlement characteristics were analyzed. According to the test results, the bearing capacities from the six tests exceeded 1,500 kN/m2, and it shows that the results are similar with the one of bearing capacity formula by Pressuremeter tests when compared with the various bearing capacity formula. In addition, the elastic modulus determined by the inverse calculation of the load-settlement behavior from the large-scale plate-bearing tests was appropriate for applying the elastic modulus of the Pressuremeter tests. With consideration of the large-scale plate-bearing tests in this study and other results of plate-bearing tests on weathered rock in Korea, the allowable bearing capacity of weathered rock is evaluated to be over 1,000 kN/m2. However, because the settlement of the foundation increases as the foundation size increases, the allowable bearing capacity should be restrained by the allowable settlement criteria of an upper structure. Therefore, in this study, the anticipated foundation settlements along the foundation size and the thickness of weathered rocks have been evaluated by numerical analysis, and the foundation size and ground conditions, with an allowable bearing capacity of over 1,000 kN/m2, have been proposed as a table. These findings are considered useful in determining the foundation type in the early foundation design.

A Statistical Analysis of Phenotypic Diversity Based on Genetic Traits in Barley Germplasms (특성평가 정보를 활용한 보리 유전자원 형태적 형질 다양성의 통계적 분석)

  • Yu, Dong Su;Shin, Myoung-Jae;Park, Jin-Cheon;Kang, Manjung
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.641-651
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    • 2022
  • The biodiversity research of barley, a functional food, is proceeding to conserve germplasms and develop new cultivar of barley to improve its functional effects. In this study, with 25,104 barley germplasms in the National Agrobiodiversity Center, South Korea, the biodiversity index of species was much lower (1.17) than the origins (24.73) because of the presence of a biased species, Hordeum vulgare subsp. vulgare, but the species and origin of germplasms were significantly different with regard to genetic traits. In the clustering analysis based on genetic traits, we found that 97% barley germplasms could mostly be distributed between 1~7 clusters out of a total of 15 clusters; 'normal and uzu type', 'lodging', and 'loose smut' were commonly represented in the 1~7 clusters and some clusters showed specific differences in five genetic traits including 'growth habit'. In correlation of each genetic trait, the infection of 'barley yellow mosaic virus' was highly correlated to 'number of grains per spike'. '1000 grain weight' was weakly correlated with seven genetic traits including 'number of grains per spike'. Our analysis for barley's biodiversity can provide a useful guide to the species' phenotypes that need to be collected to conserve biodiversity and to breed new barley varieties.

Evaluation of waterlogging tolerance using chlorophyll fluorescence reaction in the seedlings of Korean ginseng (Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer) accessions (엽록소 형광반응을 이용한 인삼 유전자원의 습해 스트레스 평가)

  • Jee, Moo Geun;Hong, Young Ki;Kim, Sun Ick;Park, Yong Chan;Lee, Ka Soon;Jang, Won Suk;Kwon, A Reum;Seong, Bong Jae;Kim, Me-Sun;Cho, Yong-Gu
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.240-249
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    • 2022
  • Measuring chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) is a useful tool for assessing a plant's ability to tolerate abiotic stresses such as drought, waterlogging and high temperature. Korean ginseng is highly sensitive to water stress in paddy fields. To evaluate the possibility of non-destructively diagnosing waterlogging stress using chlorophyll fluorescence (CF) imaging techniques, we screened 57 ginseng accessions for waterlogging tolerance. To evaluate waterlogging tolerance among the 2-year-old Korean ginseng accessions, we treated ginseng plants with water stress for 25 days. The physiological disorder rate was characterized through visual assessment (an assigned score of 0-5). The physiological disorder rates of Geumjin, Geumsun and GS00-58 were lower than that of other accessions. In contrast, lines GS97-62, GS97-69 and GS98-1-5 were deemed susceptible. Root traits, chlorophyll content and the reduction rates decreased in most ginseng accessions. Further, these metrics were significantly lower in susceptible genotypes compared to resistant ones. All CF parameters showed a positive or negative response to waterlogging stress, and this response continuously increased over the treatment time among the genotypes. The CF parameter Fv/Fm was used to screen the 57 accessions, and the results showed clear differences in Fv/Fm between the susceptible and resistant genotypes. Susceptible genotypes had an especially low Fv/Fm value of less than 0.8, reflecting damage to the reaction center of photosystem II. It is concluded that Fv/Fm can be used as a CF parameter index for screening waterlogging stress tolerance in ginseng genotypes.

Riparian Vegetation Monitoring and Health Assessment by Pilot Opening of Nakdonggang River Estuary (낙동강하구 시범개방에 따른 수변식생 모니터링 및 건강성 평가)

  • Choi, Hyun-Gu;Kim, Hwa-Young;Lee, Jun-Yeol;Sohn, Byeong-Yong;Lee, Ji-Young
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.445-459
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we investigated current vegetation and assessed the health of vegetation through the KERVI (Korea Estuary Riparian Vegetation Index) to monitor vegetation changes near estuaries due to the opening of the Nakdong River estuary. As the first investigation of the long-term monitoring, six areas near the Nakdong River estuary were surveyed twice in July and October 2021, and vegetation monitoring and a survey of species composition and distribution density of aquatic, riparian, and land plants were carried out. The survey identified 262 taxa, 82 families, 192 genera, 196 species, 3 subspecies, 26 varieties, and 1 form of vascular plants in the surveyed area. The results of the vegetation health assessment through KREVI showed that sites 1 and 6 were rated "Very good" in both surveys, sites 2 and 4 were rated "Very good" in the first survey and then "Good"in the second survey, and site 3 and 5 were rated one grade higher in the second survey than the first survey. The assessment showed that the health grades of most species in the survey area were generally high. Most of the potential natural vegetation after the opening of estuary gates to create a brackish water area is expected to consist of reed (Phragmites communisTrin.) communities. The area of the willow (Salix koreensisAndersson) community adjacent to the water area may be somewhat narrower, but the community will be maintained. In the case of freshwater areas in inland areas with very low salinity, reeds (Phragmites communisTrin.) are expected to occupy most of them, and some communities such as amur silver-grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorusBenth.) and cattails (Typha orientalisC. Presl) are expected to be distributed. We suggest establishing measures such as estuary gate operation to create healthy brackish water regions through long-term monitoring.

Development of Consumer Education Teaching-Learning Process for SMART Learning-Based Middle School Home Economics Education (스마트러닝 기반 중학교 가정교과 소비생활 교수-학습안 개발)

  • Seo, Yu Ri;Chae, Jung Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.149-170
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a Smart learning-based middle school home economics education plan to improve the online home economics education classes. The educational plan in this study was completed through the process of analysis, design, development, and evaluation. The results of this study are as follows. First, as a result of analyzing consumer life units in the middle school textbooks based on 2015-revised curriculum, Smart learning activities were presented in only two out of the 12 textbooks analyxed. Second, a Smart learning-based middle school home economics education plan was developed in this study with the following characteristics: the topics and contents are structured so that to help learners actively engage in the teaching and learning activities; the education plan to reflects various media and current issues that learners may be interested in; the lesson plans were structured with the premise of online classes; softwares that enable real-time discussion and collaboration are used; and the evaluation method are composed of online activities. Third, the expert evaluation scores for the educational plan and activity materials developed were 4.52 (5-point Likert scale), when averaged across subject, goal, content, teaching/learning activity, and evaluation, and the overall content validity index(CVI) was 0.95. The adequacy of execution, benefit, attractiveness, usefulness, and feasibility were highly with an average of 4.62. Based on the experts' comments, the education plan and activity materials were revised and completed. This study is meaningful in that it developed teaching and learning activities based on online classes after the COVID-19 outbreak, overcoming the limitations of offline classes. It has implications for face-to-face home economics classes due to COVID-19, as it suggests ways to blend online and offline teaching/learning activities depending on the situation.

Effects of the Type and Number of Enrichment on Growth Performance, Blood Characteristics, Footpad Dermatitis, and Litter Moisture in Broilers (Enrichment 종류 및 개수 설정에 따른 육계 생산성, 혈액특성, 발바닥피부염, 깔짚 내 수분함량에 미치는 영향)

  • Hyunsoo, Kim;Hee-Jin, Kim;Jin-Joo, Jeon;Jiseon, Son;Yeon-Seo, Yun;Eui-Chul, Hong;Hwan-Ku, Kang
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.199-210
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effects of the type and number of enrichments on growth performance, blood characteristics, footpad dermatitis (FPD) incidence, and litter moisture in broilers. A total of 1,140 1-day-old male Ross 308 broilers were assigned to a 3 × 2 factorial arrangement based on the type of enrichment (cabbage, alfalfa block, and angle sawdust) and the number of enrichments (one or two per 38 broilers). The growth performance, blood characteristics, FPD incidence, and litter moisture of the broilers were evaluated. Body weight and feed conversion rate were significantly improved (P<0.05) in the alfalfa block and sawdust group compared to the cabbage group, but there was no interaction effect between the type and number of enrichments. The heterophil/lymphocyte ratio, a stress index, was significantly decreased (P<0.05) in the alfalfa block and sawdust groups compared with the cabbage group. The incidence of FPD was significantly decreased in the order of cabbage (3.78), alfalfa block (3.06), and sawdust (1.43) groups at 5 weeks of age. Moreover, there was a significant decrease in the incidence of FPD (P<0.05) in the one-enrichment group compared with the two-enrichment group. Litter moisture at 5 weeks of age was significantly reduced in the sawdust group compared to the cabbage and alfalfa groups, but there was no significant difference in the interaction between the type and number of enrichments. It was concluded that sawdust enrichment positively influenced both growth performance and the animal welfare of broilers. In addition, it is expected that sawdust can be used to regulate litter moisture.

Improvement in Calculating Engineer Standard Wage Rate and Its Appropriate Level Computation (엔지니어링 노임단가 산출기준 개선방안과 적정 노임단가 추정)

  • Lee, Jae Yul;Lee, Hae Kyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.853-860
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to suggest an improvement plan for the calculation method of the engineer standard wage rate (ESWR) and to compute a reasonable ESWR. To this end, an adequacy review of theESWR calculation criteria was conducted along with an extensive engineering industry survey. The survey results were analyzed using an effective response sample of 748 companies out of 1,000 survey samples extracted by stratifying the 5,879 survey population. The main results were as follows. ①When calculating the engineering service fee, the prime contractor's engineer wage is suitable for the ESWR. The ESWR can be estimated by the formula 'average wage÷[1-proportion of subcontract orders×(1-subcontract rate)].' ② The field survey showed that the number of monthly working days was 20.35-20.54 days at 99 % confidence interval, which was significantly different from the current standard (22 days). In addition, as a result of a legal review of the ESWR criteria, it was found that the number of working days should be calculated in accordance with the Labor Standards Act after 2022. ③ Applying government guidelines, the time difference between the wage survey and the ESWR application can be corrected by the past ESWR increase rate for a specific period. ④ Using modeling based on the analysis above, the current ESWR was 13.5-14.5 % lower than the appropriate level. A lower ESWR was driven by the non-reflection of subcontract structure (4.1 %), overestimation of monthly work days (6.8-7.8 %), and application of past wage (2.6 %). The proposed model is expected to be widely used in policy making, as it can provide a useful framework for calculating the standard wage rate in similar industries as well as calculating appropriate engineering fees.

Synthesis and Structural Study of Extraframework ZrI6Tl119+ Cationic Cluster in Zeolite A (제올라이트 A 동공 내 비골격 ZrI6Tl119+ 양이온 클러스터의 합성과 구조 연구)

  • Hyeon Seung, Lim;Jong Sam, Park;Cheol Woong, Kim;Woo Taik, Lim
    • Korean Journal of Mineralogy and Petrology
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.447-455
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    • 2022
  • Fully dehydrated Tl12-LTA (|Tl12|[Si12Al12O48]-LTA,Tl12-A) was treated with 6.0×103 Pa of ZrI4 (g) at 623 K for 72 hr under anhydrous conditions. The crystal structure of product, |Zr0.25I1.5Tl12|[Si12Al12O48]-LTA, was determined by single-crystal crystallography using synchrotron X-radiation in the cubic space group Pm3m (a = 12.337(2) Å). It was refined using all data to the final error index (for the 712 unique reflections for which Fo> 4σ(Fo) R1/wR2= 0.055/0.189. In this structure, octahedral ZrI62- ions center about 25% of the large cavities (Zr-I = 2.91(4) Å). Each coordinates to eight Tl+ ions and they are further bridged by Tl+ ions in the planes of 8-rings to form a cubic three-dimensional ZrI6Tl119+ cationic cluster. About 1.5 Tl+ ions per unit cell moved to deeper side of sodalite cavity after reaction with ZrI4(g). The remaining Tl+ ions occupy well-established cation positions near 6- and 8-rings.

Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation over CORDEX-EA Phase 2 Domain using Regional Climate Model HadGEM3-RA (HadGEM3-RA 지역기후모델을 이용한 CORDEX 동아시아 2단계 지역의 기온과 강수 모의 평가)

  • Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Tae-Jun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Do-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2022
  • This study evaluates the temperature and precipitation results in East Asia simulated from the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) developed by the UK Met Office. The HadGEM3-RA is conducted in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase II domain for 15 year (2000-2014). The spatial distribution of rainbands produced from the HadGEM3-RA by the summer monsoon is in good agreement with the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of water resources (APRODITE) data over the East Asia. But, precipitation amount is overestimated in Southeast Asia and underestimated over the Korean Peninsula. In particular, the simulated summer rainfall and APRODITE data show the least correlation coefficient and the maximum value of root mean square error in South Korea. Prediction of temperature in Southeast Asia shows underestimation with a maximum error during winter season, while it appears the largest underestimation in South Korea during spring season. In order to evaluate local predictability, the time series of temperature and precipitation compared to the ASOS data of the Seoul Meteorological Station is similar to the spatial average verification results in which the summer precipitation and winter temperature underestimate. Especially, the underestimation of the rainfall increases when the amounts of precipitation increase in summer. The winter temperature tends to underestimate at low temperature, while it overestimates at high temperature. The results of the extreme climate index comparison show that heat wave is overestimated and heavy rainfall is underestimated. The HadGEM3-RA simulated with a horizontal resolution of 25 km shows limitations in the prediction of mesoscale convective system and topographic precipitation. This study indicates that improvement of initial data, horizontal resolution, and physical process are necessary to improve predictability of regional climate model.