A Hybrid Forecasting Framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Artificial Neural Network (사례기반 추론기법과 인공신경망을 이용한 서비스 수요예측 프레임워크)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.18 no.4
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- pp.43-57
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- 2012
To enhance the competitive advantage in a constantly changing business environment, an enterprise management must make the right decision in many business activities based on both internal and external information. Thus, providing accurate information plays a prominent role in management's decision making. Intuitively, historical data can provide a feasible estimate through the forecasting models. Therefore, if the service department can estimate the service quantity for the next period, the service department can then effectively control the inventory of service related resources such as human, parts, and other facilities. In addition, the production department can make load map for improving its product quality. Therefore, obtaining an accurate service forecast most likely appears to be critical to manufacturing companies. Numerous investigations addressing this problem have generally employed statistical methods, such as regression or autoregressive and moving average simulation. However, these methods are only efficient for data with are seasonal or cyclical. If the data are influenced by the special characteristics of product, they are not feasible. In our research, we propose a forecasting framework that predicts service demand of manufacturing organization by combining Case-based reasoning (CBR) and leveraging an unsupervised artificial neural network based clustering analysis (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps; SOM). We believe that this is one of the first attempts at applying unsupervised artificial neural network-based machine-learning techniques in the service forecasting domain. Our proposed approach has several appealing features : (1) We applied CBR and SOM in a new forecasting domain such as service demand forecasting. (2) We proposed our combined approach between CBR and SOM in order to overcome limitations of traditional statistical forecasting methods and We have developed a service forecasting tool based on the proposed approach using an unsupervised artificial neural network and Case-based reasoning. In this research, we conducted an empirical study on a real digital TV manufacturer (i.e., Company A). In addition, we have empirically evaluated the proposed approach and tool using real sales and service related data from digital TV manufacturer. In our empirical experiments, we intend to explore the performance of our proposed service forecasting framework when compared to the performances predicted by other two service forecasting methods; one is traditional CBR based forecasting model and the other is the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. We ran each service forecasting 144 times; each time, input data were randomly sampled for each service forecasting framework. To evaluate accuracy of forecasting results, we used Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as primary performance measure in our experiments. We conducted one-way ANOVA test with the 144 measurements of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches. For example, the F-ratio of MAPE for three different service forecasting approaches is 67.25 and the p-value is 0.000. This means that the difference between the MAPE of the three different service forecasting approaches is significant at the level of 0.000. Since there is a significant difference among the different service forecasting approaches, we conducted Tukey's HSD post hoc test to determine exactly which means of MAPE are significantly different from which other ones. In terms of MAPE, Tukey's HSD post hoc test grouped the three different service forecasting approaches into three different subsets in the following order: our proposed approach > traditional CBR-based service forecasting approach > the existing forecasting approach used by Company A. Consequently, our empirical experiments show that our proposed approach outperformed the traditional CBR based forecasting model and the existing service forecasting model used by Company A. The rest of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides some research background information such as summary of CBR and SOM. Section 3 presents a hybrid service forecasting framework based on Case-based Reasoning and Self-Organizing Maps, while the empirical evaluation results are summarized in Section 4. Conclusion and future research directions are finally discussed in Section 5.
In order to investigate the influence of increased seed production of Korean white pine(Pinus koraiensis S. et Z.), component of seeds, produced from trees in the thinned stand and the stem-pruned trees in the seed orchard, were analyzed. The results obtained were as follows: 1. General component analysis of seed There is no significant influence of thinning on the seed component in moisture content (thinned- 4.10%, unthinned- 3.74% ), ash (thinned- 2.95%, unthinned- 2.94%), crude lipid (thinned- 67.62%, unthinned- 71.94%), and crude protein (thinned- 17.27%, unthinned- 17.50%). There is no significant influence of stem-pruning on the seed component in moisture content (unpruned- 4.26%, 1m stem-pruned- 4.10%, and 2m stem-pruned- 3.99%), ash (unpruned- 2.08%, 1m stem-pruned- 2.09%, and 2m stem-pruned- 2.15%) crude lipid(unpruned- 68.59%, 1m stem-pruned- 69.52%, and 2m stem-pruned- 72.53%), and crude protein (unpruned- 18.13%, 1m stem-pruned- 17.96%, and 2m stem-pruned- 17.56%) 2. Fatty acid analysis Seeds of tree from thinned and unthinned stands contained two essential fatty acids, i.e., linoleic acid (18:2) (thinned- 54.92%, unthinned- 55.40%) and linolenic acid (18:3) (thinned- 0.19%, and unthinned- 0.23%). Over 94% of fatty acids consisted of linoleic acid (18:2)(55%), oleic acid (18:1) (32%), and palmitic acid (16:0)(7%). T-test showed difference of content at 1% significance level for palmitoleic acid (16:1), stearic acid (18:0) and 8.11, 14-eicosatrienoic acid (20:3) and at 5% for linolenic acid (18:3), but no significant difference for three major fatty acids mentioned above, between two types of trees. Thus thinning may give no influence in fatty acid content. Seeds of three types of trees contained two essential fatty acids, i.e., linoleic acid (18:2)(unpruned- 55.25%, 1m stem-pruned- 54.74%, and 2m stem-pruned- 55.00%), and linolenic acid (18:3)(0.21% for three kinds of trees). Linoleic acid (18:2)(55%), oleic acid (18:1) (32%), and palmitic acid (16:0)(6%) consisted of more than 93% of all fatty acid content. At 5% significance level in F-test, difference was observed in the content of palmitoleic acid (16:1) and 8.11, 14-eicosatrienoic acid (20:3), but not in three major types of fatty acids above mentioned. It is observed that stem-pruning gave no significant influence in fatty acid content in general.
We investigated what factors motivate gamers to participate in a guild and why they continue to be engaged as members of the guild. We find that, based on the result of focus group interviews with MMORPG gamers, social support and self-esteem factors play important roles. Considering both prior research and the focus group interviews we have conducted, we define social support and character control as independent variables. Character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem are proposed as mediating variables while guild flow and game loyalty as dependent variables. Accordingly, we develop the research model and hypotheses, and verify them empirically. Based on our experiences of playing the WoW game, we proposed a research model and conducted focus-group interviews (FGIs). FGIs involve formulating a hypothesis and then collecting some relevant data. FGIs were conducted face-to-face with students of C University in Korea. We formulated structured interview schedules, and the questions were based on our research variables and personal experiences. The questions for the interviews encompassed the following areas: (a) the demographic characteristics of the focus group; (b) the number of years for which respondents had played online games; (c) the motive for starting a game; (d) the number of game-characters assumed by each gamer; (e) the type of game played; and (f) other issues such as the reasons for involvement in the play, the willingness to reuse the game in case new versions were released, etc. On average, it took two hours to interview each of three groups. A primary set of FGIs was conducted with three groups on the premise that there would be some differences caused by character race (Horde vs. Alliance) or by playable server (Normal vs. Combat). With respect to the manner of playing, we found that guild members shared information, felt a sense of belonging, and played computer games for quite a long time through the guild; however, they did not undergo these experiences when playing alone. Gamers who belonged to a specific guild helped other players without expecting compensation for that, freely shared information about the game, gave away items for free, and more generous with other members who made mistakes. The guild members were aware of the existence other members and experienced a sense of belonging through interactions with, and evaluations from, other players. It was clear that social support was shown within the guild and that it played an important role as a major research variable. Based on the results of the first FGIs, a second set of in-depth FGIs was carried out with a focus on the psychology of the individual within the guild and the social community of the guild. The second set of FGIs also focused on the guild's offline meetings. Gamers, over all, recognize the necessity of joining a community, not only off-line but also online world of the guild. They admit that the guild is important for them to easily and conveniently enjoy playing online computer games. The active behavior and positive attitudes of existing guild members can motivate new members of the guild to adapt themselves to the guild environment. They then adopt the same behaviors and attitudes of established guild members. In this manner, the new members of the guild strengthen the bonds with other gamers while feeling a sense of belonging, and developing social identity, thereby. It was discovered that the interaction among guild members and the social support encouraged new gamers to quickly develop a sense of social identity and increase their self-esteem. The guild seemed to play the role of socializing gamers. Sometimes, even in the real world, the guild members helped one another; therefore, the features of the guild also spilled over to the offline environment. We intend to use self-esteem, which was found through the second set of FGIs, as an important research variable. To collect data, an online survey was designed with a questionnaire to be completed by WoW gamers, who belong to a guild. The survey was registered on the best three domestic game-sites: 'WoW playforum,' 'WoW gamemeca,' and 'Wow invent.' The selected items to be measured in the questionnaire were decided based on prior research and data from FGIs. To verify the content of the questionnaire, we carried out a pilot test with the same participants to point out ambiguous questions as a way to ensure maximum accuracy of the survey result. A total of 244 responses were analyzed from the 250 completed questionnaires. The SEM analysis was used to test goodness-of-fit of the model. As a result, we found important results as follows: First, according to the statistics, social support had statistically significant impacts on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Second, character control had significant effects on character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity shows its clear impact on self-esteem and game loyalty. Fourth, guild identity affected self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Fifth, self-esteem had a positive influence on the guild flow. These days, the number of virtual community is rising along with its significance largely because of the nature of the online games. Accordingly, this study is designed to clarify the psychological relationship between gamers within the guild that has been generally established by gamers to play online games together. This study focuses on the relationships in which social support influences guild flow or game loyalty through character control, character identity, guild identity, and self-esteem, which are present within a guild in the MMORPG game environment. The study results are as follows. First, the effects of social support on character control, character identity, guild identity and self-esteem are proven to be statistically significant. It was found that character control improves character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Among the seven variables, social support, which is derived from FGIs, plays an important role in this study. With the active support of other guild members, gamers can improve their ability to develop good characters and to control them. Second, character identity has a positive effect on self-esteem and game loyalty, while guild identity has a significant effect on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Self-esteem affects guild flow. It was found that the higher the character and guild identities become, the greater the self-esteem is established. Contrary to the findings of prior research, our study results indicate that the relationship between character identity and guild flow is not significant. Rather, it was found that character identity directly affects game players' loyalty. Even though the character identity had no direct effect on increasing guild flow, it has indirectly affected guild flow through self-esteem. The significant relationship between self-esteem and guild flow indicates that gamers achieve flow, i.e., a feeling of pleasure and excitement through social support. Several important implications of this study should be noted. First, both qualitative and quantitative methods were used to conduct this study. Through FGIs, it was observed that both social support and self-esteem are important variables. Second, because guilds had been rarely studied, this research is expected to play an important role in the online community. Third, according to the result, six hypotheses (H1, H5, H6, H7, H8, and H11) setup based on FGIs, were statistically significant; thus, we can suggest the corresponding relationships among the variables as a guideline for follow-up research. Our research is significant as it has following implications: first, the social support of the guild members is important when establishing character control, character identity, guildidentity and self-esteem. It is also a major variable that affects guild flow and game loyalty. Second, character control when improved by social support shows notable influence on the development of character identity, guild identity and self-esteem. Third, character identity and guild identity are major factors to help establish gamers' own self-esteem. Fourth, character identity affects guild flow through self-esteem and game loyalty. The gamers usually express themselves through characters; the higher character identity is, the more loyalty a gamer has. Fifth, guild identity, established within the guild, has clear effects on self-esteem, guild flow and game loyalty. Sixth, qualitative and quantitative methods are employed to conduct this study. Based on the results of focus group interviews and SEM analysis, we find that the social support by guild members and psychological factors are significant in strengthening the flow of guild and loyalty to the game. As such, game developers should provide some extra functions for guild community, through which gamers can play online games in collaboration with one another. Also, we suggest that positive self-esteem which is built up through social support can help gamers achieve higher level of flow and satisfaction, which will consequently contribute to minimizing the possibility for the players to develop negative attitude toward the guild they belong to.
Objectives : The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of bisphenol A (BPA), an estrogen-like environmental endocrine disrupter, on the placental function and reproduction in rats. The mRNA levels of the placental prolactin-growth hormone(PRL-GH) gene family, placental trophoblast cell frequency and reproductive data were analyzed. Methods : The pregnancies of F344 Fisher rats (
The cycle length design model of the Korean traffic responsive signal control systems is devised to vary a cycle length as a response to changes in traffic demand in real time by utilizing parameters specified by a system operator and such field information as degrees of saturation of through phases. Since no explicit guideline is provided to a system operator, the system tends to include ambiguity in terms of the system optimization. In addition, the cycle lengths produced by the existing model have yet been verified if they are comparable to the ones minimizing delay. This paper presents the studies conducted (1) to find shortcomings embedded in the existing model by comparing the cycle lengths produced by the model against the ones minimizing delay and (2) to propose a new direction to design a cycle length minimizing delay and excluding such operator oriented parameters. It was found from the study that the cycle lengths from the existing model fail to minimize delay and promote intersection operational conditions to be unsatisfied when traffic volume is low, due to the feature of the changed target operational volume-to-capacity ratio embedded in the model. The 64 different neural network based cycle length design models were developed based on simulation data surrogating field data. The CORSIM optimal cycle lengths minimizing delay were found through the COST software developed for the study. COST searches for the CORSIM optimal cycle length minimizing delay with a heuristic searching method, a hybrid genetic algorithm. Among 64 models, the best one producing cycle lengths close enough to the optimal was selected through statistical tests. It was found from the verification test that the best model designs a cycle length as similar pattern to the ones minimizing delay. The cycle lengths from the proposed model are comparable to the ones from TRANSYT-7F.
1) For the micro-analysis of mercury in plant materials, the method of Furutani was shown to be the simplest and most efficient way and the recovery of the assay was about 98%. 2) When the rice grain was soaked in 1/1000 diluted solution of organo-mercury fungicide for 8 hours at the end of March, the amounts of mercury residues in the brown rice and unhulled rice were 8.8 to
This study was conducted to investigate the effects of recombinant bovine somatotropin (rbST) injection on conception and parturition rates in normal or repeat breeding Hanwoo. We treated 462 cows containing 79 repeat-breeding cows of multiparous and allocating 5 treatment groups. Treatment 1 (T1) was injection of 2ml saline (for pseudo treatment), T2 was one injection of rbST 250mg into the tailhead region at the estrus, T3 was twice injection of rbST 250mg both at the time of insemination and again 10 to 14 day later, T4 was once injection of rbST 500mg at insemination and T5 was twice injection of 500mg rbST both at the time of insemination and again 10 to 14day later respectively. In rbST treated groups, timed artificial inseminations (TAI) were performed fellowing estrus synchronization. 100 us GnRH was injected into the scapula region on Day 0, 25mg
This experiment was carried out as a part of the studies on reasonable application of nitrogen in rice plant to determine: (I) Nitrogen absorption. and rooting of rice seedlings as affected by urea foliar application at late seedling stage (II) Effect of leaf prunning and foliar application of urea at late heading stage on the maturation and yield of rice (III) Effect of foliar application of urea and its time during the stage of ear formation on yield of rice plant. Results obtained are summarized as follows. Exp.I: Nitrogen absorption and rooting of rice seedlings as affected be urea foliar application at late seedling stage. 1 : The foliar application of urea plots
Purpose of study: Lingual nerve damage can be caused by surgery or trauma such as physical irriatation, radiation, chemotherapy, infection and viral infection. Once nerve damage occurred, patients sometimes complain taste change and loss of taste along with serious disturbance of tongue. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of unilateral lingual nerve transection on taste as well as on the maintenance of taste buds. Materials & Methods: Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing 220-250g received unilateral transection of lingual nerve, subjected to the preference test for various taste solutions (0.1M NaCl, 0.1M sucrose, 0.01M QHCl, or 0.01M HCl) with two bottle test paradigm at 2, 4, 6, or 8 weeks after the operation. Tongue was fixed with 8% paraformaldehyde. After fixation, they were observed with scanning electron microscope(JSM-
The wall shear stress in the vicinity of end-to end anastomoses under steady flow conditions was measured using a flush-mounted hot-film anemometer(FMHFA) probe. The experimental measurements were in good agreement with numerical results except in flow with low Reynolds numbers. The wall shear stress increased proximal to the anastomosis in flow from the Penrose tubing (simulating an artery) to the PTFE: graft. In flow from the PTFE graft to the Penrose tubing, low wall shear stress was observed distal to the anastomosis. Abnormal distributions of wall shear stress in the vicinity of the anastomosis, resulting from the compliance mismatch between the graft and the host artery, might be an important factor of ANFH formation and the graft failure. The present study suggests a correlation between regions of the low wall shear stress and the development of anastomotic neointimal fibrous hyperplasia(ANPH) in end-to-end anastomoses. 30523 T00401030523 ^x Air pressure decay(APD) rate and ultrafiltration rate(UFR) tests were performed on new and saline rinsed dialyzers as well as those roused in patients several times. C-DAK 4000 (Cordis Dow) and CF IS-11 (Baxter Travenol) reused dialyzers obtained from the dialysis clinic were used in the present study. The new dialyzers exhibited a relatively flat APD, whereas saline rinsed and reused dialyzers showed considerable amount of decay. C-DAH dialyzers had a larger APD(11.70