• 제목/요약/키워드: Housing Distribution Market

검색결과 41건 처리시간 0.019초

Foreign Uncertainty and Housing Distribution Market in Korea

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제16권12호
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    • pp.5-11
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - We investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the US and China and housing distribution economy in Korea using EPU indexes of two countries and the economic indicators in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the data such as the Korean housing price stability index (HPSI), housing purchase price index (HPPI), housing lease price index (HLPI), banking stock index (BSI), and consumer price index (CPI) with EPU indexes from January 1999 to December 2017. As an empirical methodology, we select the vector error correction model (VECM) due to the existence of cointegration. Result - As results of the impulse response function, the impact of the US EPU index has initially a negative response on the Korean HPSI, HPPI, and HLPI referring the housing distribution market including the economic variables, BSI, and CPI. Likewise, the impact of index in China has initially a negative response on economic indicators except the BSI in Korea. Conclusions - This study shows that the EPU index of the US has significantly negative relationships on all economic indicators in Korea. In this study, we reveal EPU of the US and China has dynamic impact on housing distribution economy returns in Korea.

Scaling of the Price Fluctuation in the Korean Housing Market

  • Kim, Jinho;Park, Jinhong;Choi, Junyoung;Yook, Soon-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
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    • 제73권10호
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    • pp.1431-1436
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    • 2018
  • We study the scaling of the price fluctuation in the Korean housing market. From the numerical analysis, we show that the normalized return distribution of the housing price, P(r), has a fat-tail and is well approximated by a power-law, $P(r){\sim}r^{-({\alpha}+1)}$, with ${\alpha}{\simeq}3$ for the whole data set. However, if we divide the data into groups based on the trading patterns, then the value of ${\alpha}$ for positive tail and negative tail can be different depending on the trading patterns. We also find that the autocorrelation function of the housing price decays much slower than that of the stock exchange markets, which shows a unique feature of the housing market distinguished from the other financial systems.

Elasticity of Demand for Urban Housing in Western China Based on Micro-data - A Case Study of Kunming

  • Zhang, Hong;Li, Shaokai;Kong, Yanhua
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2016
  • Purpose - Considering the importance of housing needs to real estate market, domestic studies on real estate prices from the perspective of demand are basically based on macro-data, but relatively few are associated with micro-data of urban real estate demand. We try to find a reliable relation of elasticity of demand and commercial housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - In this paper, we have derived housing demand theoretic method and have utilized micro-data of residential family housing survey of downtown area in Kunming City in October, 2015 to estimate income elasticity and price elasticity of housing demand respectively and make a comparative analysis. Results - The results indicate that income elasticity and price elasticity of families with owner-occupied housing are both larger than those of families with rental housing. Income elasticity of housing demand of urban residential families in Kunming is far below the foreign average and eastern coastal cities level, however, the corresponding price elasticity is far higher. Conclusions - We suggest that housing affordability of urban families in western China are constrained by the level of economic development, and the current housing price level has exceeded the economic affordability and psychological expectation of ordinary residents. Furthermore, noticing the great rigidity of housing demand, the expansion space of housing market for improvement and for commodity is limited.

가계 재무건전성이 주택투자수요에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Financial Strength of Households on House Investment Demand)

  • 노상윤;윤보현;최영민
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제12권4호
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - This study investigates the following two issues. First, we attempt to find the important determinants of housing investment and to identify their significance rank using survey panel data. Recently, the expansion of global uncertainty in the real estate market has directly and indirectly influenced the Korean housing market; households demonstrate a sensitive reaction to changes in that market. Therefore, this study aims to draw conclusions from understanding how the impact of financial strength of the household is related to house investment. Second, we attempt to verify the effectiveness of diverse indices of financial strength such as DTI, LTV, and PIR as measures to monitor the housing market. In the continuous housing market recession after the global crisis, the government places top priority on residence stability. However, the government still imposes forceful restraints on indices of financial strength. We believe this study verifies the utility of these regulations when used in the housing market. Research design, data, and methodology - The data source for this study is the "National Survey of Tax and Benefit" from 2007 (1st) to 2011 (5th) by the Korea Institute of Public Finance. Based on this survey data, we use panel data of 3,838 households that have been surveyed continuously for 5 years. We sort the base variables according to relevance of house investment criteria using the decision tree model (DTM), which is the standard decision-making model for data-mining techniques. The DTM method is known as a powerful methodology to identify contributory variables for predictive power. In addition, we analyze how important explanatory variables and the financial strength index of households affect housing investment with the binary logistic multi-regressive model. Based on the analyses, we conclude that the financial strength index has a significant role in house investment demand. Results - The results of this research are as follows: 1) The determinants of housing investment are age, consumption expenditures, income, total assets, rent deposit, housing price, habits satisfaction, housing scale, number of household members, and debt related to housing. 2) The impact power of these determinants has changed more or less annually due to economic situations and housing market conditions. The level of consumption expenditure and income are the main determinants before 2009; however, the determinants of housing investment changed to indices of the financial strength of households, i.e., DTI, LTV, and PIR, after 2009. 3) Most of all, since 2009, housing loans has been a more important variable than the level of consumption in making housing market decisions. Conclusions - The results of this research show that sound financing of households has a stronger effect on housing investment than reduced consumption expenditures. At the same time, the key indices that must be monitored by the government under economic emergency conditions differ from those requiring monitoring under normal market conditions; therefore, political indices to encourage and promote the housing market must be divided based on market conditions.

중국의 주택상품화 : 주택공급 증가를 통한 적극적 주택개혁 (Housing Commodification in China: Housing Reform through Market)

  • 전현택
    • 한국경제지리학회지
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.293-302
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    • 2002
  • 경제체제 전환기의 중국은 20년에 걸쳐서 주택개혁을 추진하여 왔다. 국가가 계획하여 주택을 무상으로 분배하는 제도에서 실수요자가 화폐를 통해서 주택을 구입하는 제도로의 변화가 있었다 1998년 7월, 주택 화폐분배정책의 실행은, 주택의 상품화를 가로막고 있던 실물분배의 고리를 끊은 것으로서, 20년 중국 주택개혁의 완결이다. 주택개혁의 목적은 정부와 단위(단위)의 부담없이 주택을 공급하고, 재생산하는 것으로서 러시아의 주택개혁과는 주택공급을 중시한다는 점에서 차이가 있다. 중국의 주택개혁이 주택개혁을 이루기 위해서 정부는 '복지 관성'에서 벗어나지 못하는 주민들이 주택을 구입하게 하기 위해서 다양한 정책을 시도했다. 그러나 국가가 건축하고 분배해 주는 것을 당연시했던 주민들이 주택을 상품으로 받아들이는 과정은 오랜 시간이 소요되었다. 또한 토지와 결합되어 있고, 고가의 소비재로서 기타 상품들과 다른 속성을 가진 주택을 시장체제로 재생산하려는 정부의 노력은 중국에서 일반적인 상품을 시장화 하는 방식 - 시장가격을 통한 시장화 방식, 다양한 소유제를 통한 시장화 방식 - 이 주택에는 적용되지 않으므로 실패하였다. 그래서 정부는 정치적 부담에도 불구하고 주택 실물분배 포기 선언을 하게된다. 실물분배 포기 선언 이후, 주택은 개인주택 매매 시장을 통해 급속히 상품화되었다.

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주거환경이 주거가치, 주거만족, 재구매의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (Effects of Housing Environment on Value, Satisfaction and Repurchase Intention of Housing)

  • 박영근;김판준;황태수
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.89-105
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    • 2007
  • 아파트시장의 환경변화와 소비자 특성의 변화로 인해 아파트 선택시 소비자의 구매의사결정도 과거와는 매우 다른 양상을 보이고 있다. 아파트 건설업체들은 고객만족도를 높이기 위해서는 주거환경을 이해하고, 차별화된 주거가치를 고객들에게 제공하여야 한다. 그러나 지금까지의 선행연구에서는 주거환경이 주거가치, 주거만족, 재구매의도간의 관계에 대한 통합적 연구가 거의 없었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 부동산뿐만 아니라 마케팅 분야의 관련 선행연구들을 토대로 주거환경이 주거가치, 주거만족, 재구매의도에 어떠한 영향을 미치며, 이러한 주거가치와 주거만족은 재구매의도에 어떤 영향을 미치는지를 분석하여 향후 아파트 건설업체의 경쟁력 강화를 위한 유용한 전략적 시사점을 제공하고자 하였다.

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The Impact of Asian Economic Policy Uncertainty : Evidence from Korean Housing Market

  • Jeon, Ji-Hong
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2018
  • We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of Asian four countries such as Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, and China on housing market returns in Korea. Also, we document the relationship between the EPU index of those four countries and the housing market including macroeconomic indicators in Korea. The EPU index of those four countries has significantly a negative effect on the housing purchase price index, housing lease price index in Korea. The EPU index in Korea and Japan has significantly a negative effect on the CPI. The EPU index in only Japan has significantly a negative effect on the PPI. The EPU index in Hong Kong and Korea has significantly a negative effect but the EPU index in China significantly has a positive effect on the stock price index in construction industry. The EPU index in only Korea has significantly a negative effect the stock price index in banking industry. This study shows the EPU index of the Korea has the negative relationships on the housing market economy rather than other countries by VECM. And this study has an important evidence of the spillover of several macroeconomic indicators in Korea for the EPU index of the Asian four countries.

주택시장의 구조변화요인과 공간적 패턴 분석 (An Analysis on the Change Factors and the Spatial Pattern of the Housing Market Structure)

  • 김정희
    • 대한공간정보학회지
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    • 제23권1호
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    • pp.39-45
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    • 2015
  • 주택시장은 다양한 사회 경제적 특성에 의해 변화하며, 지역별 특성에 따라서도 상이하게 나타난다. 본 연구는 지역별 주택시장의 구조변화요인을 추출하고, 추출된 요인의 지역별 분포패턴을 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 첫째, 전국 251개 시 군 구 단위지역을 대상으로 2005~2010년의 5년간의 주택시장에 영향을 미치는 인구 사회 경제적 변수를 추출하였다. 이를 위해 인자분석을 실시하였다. 둘째, 공간통계인 크리깅기법을 이용하여 주택시장의 구조변화요인의 공간적 분포패턴을 파악하였다. 셋째, 통계적으로 유의미하게 집중 또는 분산되는 것인지, 아니면 무작위분포패턴을 보이는지의 여부를 파악하기 위해 공간적 자기상관 분석기법 중의 하나인 Moran I를 사용하였다.

VAR 모형을 이용한 주가, 금리, 물가, 주택가격의 관계에 대한 실증연구 (An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Stock Price, Interest Rate, Price Index and Housing Price using VAR Model)

  • 김재경
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제11권10호
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2013
  • Purpose - This study analyzes the relationship and dynamic interactions between stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using Korean monthly data from 2000 to 2013, based on a VAR model. This study also examines Granger causal relationships among these variables in order to determine whether the time series of one is useful in forecasting another, or to infer certain types of causal dependency between stochastic variables. Research design, data, and methodology - We used Korean monthly data for all variables from 2000: M1 to 2013: M3. First, we checked the correlations among different variables. Second, we conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the co-integration test using the VAR model. Third, we employed Granger Causality tests to quantify the causal effect from time series observations. Fourth, we used the impulse response function and variance decomposition based on the VAR model to examine the dynamic relationships among the variables. Results - First, stock price Granger affects interest rate and all housing price indices. Price index Granger, in turn, affects the stock price and six metropolitan housing price indices. However, none of the Granger variables affect the price index. Therefore, it is the stock markets (and not the housing market) that affects the housing prices. Second, the impulse response tests show that maximum influence on stock price is its own, and though it is influenced a little by interest rate, price index affects it negatively. One standard deviation (S.D.) shock to stock price increases the housing price by 0.08 units after two months, whereas an impulse shock to the interest rate negatively impacts the housing price. Third, the variance decomposition results report that the shock to the stock price accounts for 96% of the variation in the stock price, and the shock to the price index accounts for 2.8% after two periods. In contrast, the shock to the interest rate accounts for 80% of the variation in the interest rate after ten periods; the shock to the stock price accounts for 19% of the variation; however, shock to the price index does not affect the interest rate. The housing price index in 10 periods is explained up to 96.7% by itself, 2.62% by stock price, 0.68% by price index, and 0.04% by interest rate. Therefore, the housing market is explained most by its own variation, whereas the interest rate has little impact on housing price. Conclusions - The results of the study elucidate the relationship and dynamic interactions among stock price index, interest rate, price index, and housing price indices using VAR model. This study could help form the basis for more appropriate economic policies in the future. As the housing market is very important in Korean economy, any changes in house price affect the other markets, thereby resulting in a shock to the entire economy. Therefore, the analysis on the dynamic relationships between the housing market and economic variables will help with the decision making regarding the housing market policy.

월세 임차시장의 구조적 변화에 따른 분위별 소득과 임대료 간의 부정합 분석 (Structural Changes in Rental Housing Markets and a Mismatch between Quartile Income and Rent)

  • 박정호;임태균
    • 토지주택연구
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2023
  • 전체 주택 시장에서 보증부 월세시장이 차지하는 비중은 전세 지분을 잠식하며 지난 30년 간 지속적으로 증가하여(1990년 8.2% → 2020년 21.0%) 2.6배로 확대되었다. 월세 부담 분포는 공공임대 월세 지원의 확대와 고가 월세의 등장으로 월세시장 재편으로 이어지고 있다. 월세 가구의 소득 분포는 저소득 월세 가구의 소득 둔화와 고소득 월세 가구의 출현으로 양극화가 진행되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 보증부 월세시장을 통해 월세시장의 구조적 변화와 소득-임대료 간 부정합 현상을 정량화하는 지표로 월세 가구의 임대료와 소득을 동시에 비교하여 그 추이를 측정하였다. 11개년도(2006~2021년) 주거실태조사 마이크로데이터를 이용하여 2006년(기준연도) 월세 임대료(전월세 전환율 반영)와 월세 가구 소득을 각각4분위 분포로 구획한 후 10~15년 후(분석연도) 나타난 변화를 전국과 16개 광역시·도(세종시 제외) 공간 단위에서 분석하였다. 그 결과, 전국적인 월세 주택 공급에서 최고가 4분위(25% → 18%)와 3분위(25% → 20%)의 축소로 중·상위 월세 주택 공급난을 보인 반면 공공임대주택 공급으로 2분위(25% → 28%)와 최저가 1분위(25%→ 35%)는 확대되었다. 월세 가구의 수요 측면에서 최고소득 4분위(25% → 21%)의 축소와 달리 최저소득 1분위(25% → 31%)는 확대되었다. 16개 광역시·도를 비교해보면, 월세 임대료와 월세 가구소득의 변화 방향과 강도에 있어서 지역 간 상당한 격차가 확인되었다. 특히, 서울의 월세 주택 시장은 공급 양극화로 서울 월세 가구의 소득 분포와 불균형을 이루었다. 아파트 월세시장의 구조적 변화 양상은 비아파트 월세시장과 차별화되었다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 지역별 월세 주택 시장에서 보증부 월세 가구의 소득 분위별로 부담 가능한 임차 주택 재고를 확보하고 지역별 소득과 임대료 분포 간의 균형을 유지할 수 있는 주거안정 방안을 마련하는데 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.