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Analysis and Prediction Methods of Marine Accident Patterns related to Vessel Traffic using Long Short-Term Memory Networks (장단기 기억 신경망을 활용한 선박교통 해양사고 패턴 분석 및 예측)

  • Jang, Da-Un;Kim, Joo-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.780-790
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    • 2022
  • Quantitative risk levels must be presented by analyzing the causes and consequences of accidents and predicting the occurrence patterns of the accidents. For the analysis of marine accidents related to vessel traffic, research on the traffic such as collision risk analysis and navigational path finding has been mainly conducted. The analysis of the occurrence pattern of marine accidents has been presented according to the traditional statistical analysis. This study intends to present a marine accident prediction model using the statistics on marine accidents related to vessel traffic. Statistical data from 1998 to 2021, which can be accumulated by month and hourly data among the Korean domestic marine accidents, were converted into structured time series data. The predictive model was built using a long short-term memory network, which is a representative artificial intelligence model. As a result of verifying the performance of the proposed model through the validation data, the RMSEs were noted to be 52.5471 and 126.5893 in the initial neural network model, and as a result of the updated model with observed datasets, the RMSEs were improved to 31.3680 and 36.3967, respectively. Based on the proposed model, the occurrence pattern of marine accidents could be predicted by learning the features of various marine accidents. In further research, a quantitative presentation of the risk of marine accidents and the development of region-based hazard maps are required.

Scavenging Efficiency Based on Long-Term Characteristics of Precipitation and Particulate Matters in Seoul, Korea (서울지역 장기간 강수와 미세먼지의 특성 분석에 기반한 미세먼지 세정효과)

  • Suji Han;Junshik Um
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.367-385
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    • 2023
  • The variabilities of precipitation and particulate matters (i.e., PM10 and PM2.5) and the scavenging efficiency of PMs by precipitation were quantified using long-term measurements in Seoul, Korea. The 21 years (2001~2021) measurements of precipitation and PM10 mass concentrations, and the 7 years (2015~2021) of PM2.5 mass concentrations were used. Statistical analysis was performed for each period (i.e., year, season, and month) to identify the long-term variabilities of PMs and precipitation. PM10 and PM2.5 decreased annually and the decreasing rate of PM10 was greater than PM2.5. The precipitation intensity did not show notable variation, whereas the annual precipitation amount showed a decreasing trend. The summer precipitation amount contributed 61.10% to the annual precipitation amount. The scavenging efficiency by precipitation was analyzed based on precipitation events separated by 2-hour time intervals between hourly precipitation data for 7 years. The scavenging efficiencies of PM10 and PM2.5 were quantified as a function of precipitation characteristics (i.e., precipitation intensity, amount, and duration). The calculated average scavenging efficiency of PM10 (PM2.5) was 39.59% (35.51%). PM10 and PM2.5 were not always simultaneously scavenged due to precipitation events. Precipitation events that simultaneously scavenged PM10 and PM2.5 contributed 42.24% of all events, with average scavenging efficiency of 42.93% and 43.39%. The precipitation characteristics (i.e., precipitation intensity, precipitation amount, and precipitation duration) quantified in these events were 2.42 mm hr-1, 15.44 mm, and 5.51 hours. This result corresponds to 145% (349%; 224%) of precipitation intensity (amount; duration) for the precipitation events that do not simultaneously scavenge PM10 and PM2.5.

Synthesis, Characterization and Ammonia Decomposition Reaction Activity of Vanadium Oxynitride Obtained from the Reduction/Nitridation of Vanadium Oxide (바나디움 산화물의 환원 및 질화반응으로부터 얻어진 바나디움 산화질화물의 제조, 특성분석 및 암모니아 분해반응에서의 촉매 활성)

  • Yun, Kyung Hee;Shin, Chae-Ho
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.60 no.4
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    • pp.620-629
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    • 2022
  • By varying various experimental conditions such as heating rate, molar hourly space velocity (MHSV), and nitridation reaction temperature, vanadium oxynitride was prepared through temperature programmed reduction/nitridation reaction (TPRN) of vanadium pentoxide and ammonia, and characterization were performed. In order to investigate the physico-chemical properties of the prepared catalyst, N2 adsorption-desorption analysis, X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), hydrogen temperature programmed reduction (H2-TPR), temperature programmed oxidation (TPO), ammonia temperature programmed desorption (NH3-TPD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was performed. Transformation of V2O5 with 5 m2 g-1 low specific surface area by reduction at 340 ℃ to V2O3 showed a high specific surface area value of 115 m2 g-1 by micropore formation. As the nitridation temperature increased beyond that, the specific surface area continued to decrease due to sintering. The nitridation reaction variable that had the greatest influence on the specific surface area was the reaction temperature, and the x + y value of VNxOy of a single phase approached from 1.5 to 1.0 as the nitridation reaction temperature increased. At a high reaction temperature of 680 ℃, the cubic lattice constant a was VN. close to the value. At 680 ℃, the highest nitridation temperature among the experimental conditions, the ammonia conversion rate was 93%, and no deactivation was observed.

Exploring Delays of The Mega Construction Project: The Case of Korea High Speed Railway (대형 건설사업의 공기지연분석: 경부고속철도 건설사업을 중심으로)

  • Han, Seung Heon;Yun, Sung Min;Lee, Sang Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.5D
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    • pp.839-848
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    • 2006
  • Korea has become the 5th country to own and operate the high speed railroad in 2004. However, there were many difficulties until Koreans enjoy the first bullet train service with the average hourly speed of 300km. The high speed railroad requires elevated quality standards differently from the traditional railways. In addition to the technical difficulties, the construction project itself was an unpleasant case with huge delays and cost overruns mainly due to the lack of experiences, deficiency of owner$^{\circ}{\O}$s role, and increase of public resistances triggered by environmental concerns. This paper analyzes the reasons for delays on this mega-project. With respect to the characteristics of the whole project level, it is very complicated/linear project, whose total length is around 412 km with the composition of various sections in the route of the railway which have basically different conditions. For that reason, the analysis is performed in both macro and micro level. First, macroscopic analysis is performed to find critical subdivisions in the railway route that induces the significant delay in the opening due date. Then, microscopic analysis is followed to quantify the causes and effects of delays focused on these critical subdivisions in more detailed way. Finally, this paper provides lessons learned from this project to avoid the decisive delays in performing the similar large-scaled projects.

Intelligent Motion Pattern Recognition Algorithm for Abnormal Behavior Detections in Unmanned Stores (무인 점포 사용자 이상행동을 탐지하기 위한 지능형 모션 패턴 인식 알고리즘)

  • Young-june Choi;Ji-young Na;Jun-ho Ahn
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 2023
  • The recent steep increase in the minimum hourly wage has increased the burden of labor costs, and the share of unmanned stores is increasing in the aftermath of COVID-19. As a result, theft crimes targeting unmanned stores are also increasing, and the "Just Walk Out" system is introduced to prevent such thefts, and LiDAR sensors, weight sensors, etc. are used or manually checked through continuous CCTV monitoring. However, the more expensive sensors are used, the higher the initial cost of operating the store and the higher the cost in many ways, and CCTV verification is difficult for managers to monitor around the clock and is limited in use. In this paper, we would like to propose an AI image processing fusion algorithm that can solve these sensors or human-dependent parts and detect customers who perform abnormal behaviors such as theft at low costs that can be used in unmanned stores and provide cloud-based notifications. In addition, this paper verifies the accuracy of each algorithm based on behavior pattern data collected from unmanned stores through motion capture using mediapipe, object detection using YOLO, and fusion algorithm and proves the performance of the convergence algorithm through various scenario designs.

A Study on the Performance of Ni Catalysts in Biogas Steam Reforming: Impact of Supports and Precipitation Agent Injection Rates (바이오가스 수증기 개질 반응용 Ni 촉매 성능 연구: 지지체 및 침전제 주입 속도에 따른 영향)

  • Ji-Hyeon Gong;Min-Ju Kim;Kyung-Won Jeon;Won-Jun Jang
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.327-332
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    • 2023
  • This study investigated synthesis gas production via steam reforming of biogas. Ni-Al2O3 and Ni-CeO2 catalysts were synthesized using the co-precipitation method, with controlled precipitation agent injection rates. Catalytic performances were tested at various temperatures, with a gas composition ratio of CH4:CO2:H2O = 1:0.67:3 and a gas hourly space velocity (GHSV) of 647,000 mL h-1 gcat-1. The rate of precipitation agent injection influenced the characteristics of the catalysts depending on the type of support used. As the temperature increased, both the CO2 reforming of methane and the reverse water gas shift reactions occurred. The Ni-Al2O3 catalyst, synthesized with a single injection of the precipitation agent, exhibited the best catalytic activity under conditions with sufficient steam supply among the prepared catalysts, due to its high Ni dispersion.

Developing a hydrological model for evaluating the future flood risks in rural areas (농촌지역 미래 홍수 위험도 평가를 위한 수문 모델 개발)

  • Adeyi, Qudus;Ahmad, Mirza Junaid;Adelodun, Bashir;Odey, Golden;Akinsoji, Adisa Hammed;Salau, Rahmon Abiodun;Choi, Kyung Sook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.955-967
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    • 2023
  • Climate change is expected to amplify the future flooding risks in rural areas which could have devastating implications for the sustainability of the agricultural sector and food security in South Korea. In this study, spatially disaggregated and statistically bias-corrected outputs from three global circulation models (GCMs) archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and 6) were used to project the future climate by 2100 under medium and extreme scenarios. A hydrological model was developed to simulate the flood phenomena at the Shindae experimental site located in the Chungcheongbuk Province, South Korea. Hourly rainfall, inundation depth, and discharge data collected during the two extreme events that occurred in 2021 and 2022 were used to calibrate and validate the hydrological model. Probability analysis of extreme rainfall data suggested a higher likelihood of intense and unprecedented extreme rainfall events, which would be particularly notable during 2051-2100. Consequently, the flooded area under an inundation depth of >700 mm increased by 13-36%, 54-74%, and 71-90% during 2015-2030, 2031-2050, and 2051-2100, respectively. Severe flooding probability was notably higher under extreme CMIP6 scenarios than under their CMIP5 counterparts.

Comparison of PM1, PM2.5, PM10 Concentrations in a Mountainous Coastal City, Gangneung Before and After the Yellow Dust Event in Spring (봄철 황사 전후 산악연안도시, 강릉시에서 PM1, PM2.5, PM10의 농도비교)

  • Choi, Hyo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.633-645
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    • 2008
  • In order to investigate the variations and corelation among $PM_{10},\;PM_{2.5}\;and\;PM_1$ concentrations, the hourly concentrations of each particle sizes of 300nm to $20{\mu}m$ at a city, Gangneung in the eastern mountainous coast of Korean peninsula have been measured by GRIMM aerosol sampler-1107 from March 7 to 17, 2004. Before the influence of the Yellow Dust event from China toward the city, $PM_{10},\;PM_{2.5}\;and\;PM_1$, concentrations near the ground of the city were very low less than $35.97{\mu}g/m^3,\;22.33{\mu}g/m^3\;and\;16.77{\mu}g/m^3$, with little variations. Under the partial influence of the dust transport from the China on March 9, they increased to $87.08{\mu}g/m^3,\;56.55{\mu}g/m^3\;and\;51.62{\mu}g/m^3$. $PM_{10}$ concentration was 1.5 times higher than $PM_{2.5}$ and 1.85 times higher than $PM_1$. Ratio of $(PM_{10}-PM_{2.5})/PM_{2.5}$ had a maximum value of 1.49 with an averaged 0.5 and one of $(PM_{2.5}-PM_1)/PM_1$ had a maximum value of 0.4 with an averaged 0.25. $PM_{10}\;and\;PM_{2.5}$ concentrations were largely influenced by particles smaller than $2.5{\mu}m\;and\;1{\mu}m$ particle sizes, respectively. During the dust event from the afternoon of March 10 until 1200 LST, March 14, $PM_{10},\;PM_{2.5}\;and\;PM_1$ concentrations reached $343.53{\mu}g/m^3,\;105{\mu}g/m^3\;and\;60{\mu}g/m^3$, indicating the $PM_{10}$ concentration being 3.3 times higher than $PM_{2.5}$ and 5.97 times higher than $PM_1$. Ratio of $(PM_{10}-PM_{2.5})/PM_{2.5}$ had a maximum value of 7.82 with an averaged 3.5 and one of $(PM_{2.5}-PM_1)/PM_1$, had a maximum value of 2.8 with an averaged 1.5, showing $PM_{10}\;and\;PM_{2.5}$ concentrations largely influenced by particles greater than $2.5{\mu}m\;and\;1{\mu}m$ particle sizes, respectively. After the dust event, the most of PM concentrations became below $100{\mu}g/m^3$, except of 0900LST, March 15, showing the gradual decrease of their concentrations. Ratio of $(PM_{10}-PM_{2.5})/PM_{2.5}$ had a maximum value of 3.75 with an averaged 1.6 and one of $(PM_{2.5}-PM_1)/PM_1$ had a maximum value of 1.5 with an averaged 0.8, showing the $PM_{10}$ concentration largely influenced by corse particles than $2.5{\mu}m$ and the $PM_{2.5}$ by fine particles smaller than $1{\mu}m$, respectively. Before the dust event, correlation coefficients between $PM_{10},\;PM_{2.5}\;and\;PM_1$, were 0.89, 0.99 and 0.82, respectively, and during the dust event, the coefficients were 0.71, 0.94 and 0.44. After the dust event, the coefficients were 0.90, 0.99 and 0.85. For whole period, the coefficients were 0.54, 0.95 and 0.28, respectively.

Comparisons of 1-Hour-Averaged Surface Temperatures from High-Resolution Reanalysis Data and Surface Observations (고해상도 재분석자료와 관측소 1시간 평균 지상 온도 비교)

  • Song, Hyunggyu;Youn, Daeok
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2020
  • Comparisons between two different surface temperatures from high-resolution ECMWF ReAnalysis 5 (ERA5) and Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) observations were performed to investigate the reliability of the new reanalysis data over South Korea. As ERA5 has been recently produced and provided to the public, it will be highly used in various research fields. The analysis period in this study is limited to 1999-2018 because regularly recorded hourly data have been provided for 61 ASOS stations since 1999. Topographic characteristics of the 61 ASOS locations are classified as inland, coastal, and mountain based on Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data. The spatial distributions of whole period time-averaged temperatures for ASOS and ERA5 were similar without significant differences in their values. Scatter plots between ASOS and ERA5 for three different periods of yearlong, summer, and winter confirmed the characteristics of seasonal variability, also shown in the time-series of monthly error probability density functions (PDFs). Statistical indices NMB, RMSE, R, and IOA were adopted to quantify the temperature differences, which showed no significant differences in all indices, as R and IOA were all close to 0.99. In particular, the daily mean temperature differences based on 1-hour-averaged temperature had a smaller error than the classical daily mean temperature differences, showing a higher correlation between the two data. To check if the complex topography inside one ERA5 grid cell is related to the temperature differences, the kurtosis and skewness values of 90-m DEM PDFs in a ERA5 grid cell were compared to the one-year period amplitude among those of the power spectrum in the time-series of monthly temperature error PDFs at each station, showing positive correlations. The results account for the topographic effect as one of the largest possible drivers of the difference between ASOS and ERA5.

The research on enhance the reinforcement of marine crime and accident using geographical profiling (지리적 프로파일링을 활용한 해양 범죄 및 해양사고 대응력 강화에 관한 연구)

  • Soon, Gil-Tae
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.48
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    • pp.147-176
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    • 2016
  • Korean Peninsula is surrounded by ocean on three sides. Because of this geographical quality over 97% of export and import volumes are exchange by sea. Foreign ship and international passenger vessels carries foreign tourist and globalization and internationalization increases this trends. Leisure population grows with national income increase and interest of ocean. And accidents and incidents rates are also increases. Korea Coast Guard's jurisdiction area is 4.5 times bigger than our country. The length of coastline is 14,963km including islands. One patrol vessel is responsible for 24,068km and one coast guard substation is responsible for 94km. Efficient patrol activities can not be provided. This research focus on this problem. Analyze the status and trends of maritime crime and suggest efficient patrol activities. To deal with increasing maritime crime rate this study suggest to use geographical profile method which developed early 1900s in USA. This geographical profile analyse the spatial characteristic and mapping this result. With this result potential crime zone can be predicted. One of the result is hot spot management which gives data about habitual crime zone. In Korea National Police Agency adopt this method in 2008 and apply on patrol and crime prevention activity by analysis of different criteria. Korea National Police Agency analyse the crime rate with crime type, crime zone and potential crime zone, and hourly, regionally criteria. Korea Coast Guard need to adopt this method and apply on maritime to make maritime crime map, which shows type of crime with regional, periodical result. With this geographical profiling we can set a Criminal Point which shows the place where the crime often occurs. The Criminal Points are set with the data of numerous rates such as homicide, robbery, burglary, missing, collision which happened in ocean. Set this crime as the major crime and manage the data more thoroughly. I expect to enhance the reinforcement of marine crime using this Criminal Points. Because this points will give us efficient way to prevent the maritime crime by placing the patrol vessel where they needed most.

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