• Title/Summary/Keyword: Historical Approach

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Bayesian Method in Forecasting of time Series (Bayesian 시계열 예측방법에 관한 소고)

  • 박일근
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.47-51
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    • 1984
  • In many forecasting problem, there is little or no useful historical information available at the time the initial forecast is required, The propose of this paper is study on Bayesian Method in forecasting. I : Introduction. II : Bayesian estimation. III : Constant Model. IV : General time series Models. V : Conclusion. The Bayesian procedure are then used to revise parameter estimates when time series information is available, in this paper we give a general description of the bayesian approach and demonstrate the methodology with several specific cases.

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An Analysis of Social Service Discourses in Britain -Four Areas by Two Axes- (영국 사회서비스 담론 분석 -두 개의 축에 따른 네 가지 지형-)

  • Kim, Bo-Young
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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    • v.64 no.1
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    • pp.299-324
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    • 2012
  • After social service voucher schemes were introduced in Korea, many controversies have been concentrated on market-based approach, which encourage competition and choice while amount of funding, number of providers, and types of services have been rapidly expanded. This also could mean that transform of social service paradigm from provider-centered approach to user-cantered approach, one of the trends found internationally. Therefore, this is the study to reveal development of social service discourses in Britain where various models of social services have been attempted in their modern history. Then, through the historical analysis, the trends toward more user-cantered approach were found to be distinguished based on the division of individualism and collectivism. This could provide theocratical implication to the current discussion on social services in Korea.

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A big picture view of precision nutrition: from reductionism to holism

  • Kwon, Oran
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: This review describes the historical changes in nutrition philosophy from a reductionist to a holistic approach during the $20^{th}$ century. Also, the role and efficient use of a holistic approach to precision nutrition are discussed. Results: Over the past century, significant progress has been made in human nutrition research, unraveling fundamental mechanisms of single nutrients on single targets or pathways. This kind of a reductionist approach has helped to save populations from nutrient deficiency diseases and improve associated health outcomes in large parts of the world. However, a new set of nutrition problems, like obesity and diet-related chronic diseases, are growing each year worldwide, increasing the financial burden on the health care system. A linear cause-effect association between single nutrients and a single physiologic effect, is insufficient to solve the complex nutrition-health relationships. Research that involves a more holistic rather than reductionist approach is needed to tackle a new set of nutrition problems. Recent advances in technology, informatics, and statistical methods are enabling an understanding of the diversity of individuals and the complex interactions between foods and human bodies, leading to the concept of "precision nutrition." Conclusion: The emerging goal of precision nutrition is to provide tailored dietary advice for maintaining health and preventing obesity and diet-related chronic diseases. The parts are already being installed. To grab the complexity, reductionism and holism must be used interdependently.

Human Rights and Civil Freedoms: Anthropological Approach in the Theory of Law in the Age of Information Technology

  • Gavrilova, Yulia;Dzhafarov, Navai;Kondratuk, Diana;Korchagina, Tamara;Ponomarev, Mikhail;Rozanova, Elizabeth
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.11
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    • pp.199-203
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    • 2022
  • The article aims at studying the institution of human rights and civil freedoms with due regard to the anthropological approach in the theory of law. To the greatest extent, the provisions of non-classical legal science are confirmed in the Anglo-Saxon legal family, which endows the judge with law-making functions. In this regard, the role of a person in the legal sphere is increasing. The main research method was deduction used to study the anthropological approach to the institution of human rights and freedoms. The article also utilizes the inductive method, the method of systematic scientific analysis, comparative legal and historical methods. To solve the task set, the authors considered the legal foundations and features of human rights and freedoms in the modern world. The article proves that the classical legal discourse, represented by various types of interpretation, reduces the rule of law to the analysis of its logical structure and does not answer the questions posed. It is concluded that the prerequisite for the anthropological approach in the theory of law is the use of human-like concepts in modern legislation (guilt, justice, peculiar ferocity, child abuse, willful evasion, conscientiousness).

A Dynamic Approach to Understanding Business Performance

  • Kusuma Indawati HALIM
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: This study's objective is to examine the impact of firm-specific and macroeconomic factors on the business performance of non-cyclical and cyclical sectors in Indonesian listed firms. The evaluation of business performance holds paramount importance for the achievement and long-term viability of a company. Research Design Data and Methodology: The data for 61 non-cyclicals sector companies and 57 cyclicals sector companies was gathered over a 4-year period from 2018-2021. The model integrates firm size, leverage, and sales growth as firm-specific factors, with real GDP growth and inflation rate as macroeconomic variables. ROA and ROE are indicators of a firm's business performance. The regression models are estimated using the distribution of a dynamic approach with Arellano-Bond Panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation. Results: The results of the pooled sample indicate that the historical ROA and ROE have a positive relationship with the business performance of all sectors, including both non-cyclical and cyclical industries. The ROE of non-cyclical enterprises is primarily influenced by firm-specific characteristics and macroeconomic influences. Conclusion: To ensure the successful implementation of the distribution of a dynamic approach towards enhancing corporate business performance, organizations need to take into account a combination of firm-specific factors and macroeconomic factors.

A study on the analytic geometric characteristics of Archimedes' 《The Method》 and its educational implications (아르키메데스의 《The Method》의 해석기하학적 특성과 그 교육적 시사점에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Sun-Yong
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.271-283
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    • 2014
  • This study takes a look at Polya's analysis on Archimedes' "The Method" from a math-historical perspective. We, based on the elaboration of Polya's analysis, investigate the analytic geometric characteristics of Archimedes' "The Method" and discuss the way of using the characteristics in education of school calculus. So this study brings up the educational need of approach of teaching the definite integral by clearly disclosing the transition from length, area, volume etc into the length as an area function under a curve. And this study suggests the approach of teaching both merit and deficiency of the indivisibles method, and the educational necessity of making students realizing that the strength of analytic geometry lies in overcoming deficiency of the indivisibles method by dealing with the relation of variation and rate of change by means of algebraic expression and graph.

A Reliability Prediction Method for Weapon Systems using Support Vector Regression (지지벡터회귀분석을 이용한 무기체계 신뢰도 예측기법)

  • Na, Il-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.675-682
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    • 2013
  • Reliability analysis and prediction of next failure time is critical to sustain weapon systems, concerning scheduled maintenance, spare parts replacement and maintenance interventions, etc. Since 1981, many methodology derived from various probabilistic and statistical theories has been suggested to do that activity. Nowadays, many A.I. tools have been used to support these predictions. Support Vector Regression(SVR) is a nonlinear regression technique extended from support vector machine. SVR can fit data flexibly and it has a wide variety of applications. This paper utilizes SVM and SVR with combining time series to predict the next failure time based on historical failure data. A numerical case using failure data from the military equipment is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. Finally, the proposed approach is proved meaningful to predict next failure point and to estimate instantaneous failure rate and MTBF.

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Frequency in the Western North Pacific using GDAPS Ensemble Prediction System (GDAPS 앙상블 예보 시스템을 이용한 북서태평양에서의 태풍 발생 계절 예측)

  • Kim, Ji-Sun;Kwon, H. Joe
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2007
  • This study investigates the possibility of seasonal prediction for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific by using a dynamical modeling approach. We use data from the SMIP/HFP (Seasonal Prediction Model Inter-comparison Project/Historical Forecast Project) experiment with the Korea Meteorological Administration's GDAPS (Global Data Assimilation and Prediction System) T106 model, focusing our analysis on model-generated tropical cyclones. It is found that the prediction depends primarily on the tropical cyclone (TC) detecting criteria. Additionally, a scaling factor and a different weighting to each ensemble member are found to be essential for the best predictions of summertime TC activity. This approach indeed shows a certain skill not only in the category forecast but in the standard verifications such as Brier score and relative operating characteristics (ROC).

Issues on the Maritime Boundary Disputes in Korean Territorial Seas (지방자치단체간 해상경계분쟁의 실태 및 쟁점)

  • 장학봉
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2002
  • Recently there have been growing disputes between neighboring local governments over jurisdictional rights or property rights of ocean resources in Korean coastal waters. The reasons for the disputes come mainly from the increasing interests by local governments that begin to see the oceans as the source of resources and wealth. The maritime dispute is more complicated and sticky than the inland ones, and requires not only socio-economical but political approach, therefore sometimes demanding a plenty of time and endeavor. Also coastal states that have suffered from maritime boundary problems have different issues under the different environment and historical background. For Korea, as the maritime boundary issue has very recently soared to the surface, though it was latent for the period as long as 20 years, we have just taken steps toward an institutional approach on it, seemingly more to go to reach an agreeable resolutions to the disputes. This paper highlighted the issues surrounding the maritime boundary on the sea surrounding Korean peninsular after addressing the current situation of the boundary disputes. It will help explore and assess the possible solutions to the boundary conflicts over the lateral boundary between local governments.

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Health Education in the Era of Health Promotion (건강증진시대의 보건교육)

  • 박형종;김공현
    • Korean Journal of Health Education and Promotion
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.1-5
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    • 1991
  • Definition of health education can be various depending on historical background and individual point of view. In the industrialized era when health promotion is given a high priority in health activities, health education could be defined as a combination of planned learning experiences and social actions, which expand health knowledge and experiences of individuals and communities in order to meet their health needs, change harmful health behaviors to be desirable for health promotion and motivate them to do that. To realize the proposed definition of health education, health education should develop new policies in harmony with health promotion, facilitate the development of human resources, reflect the modern educational technology, strengthen multisectoral approach, and pay more attention to monitoring and evaluation. To fulfill the above mentioned role, health education approach should shift foci from diseases to health orientation, from individualistic health behavior modification to a systematic change of the general public, from medical domination to recognition of lay competence and from authoritarian health education to supportive health education.

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