• 지능정보연구
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

투자자들은 기업의 내재가치 분석, 기술적 보조지표 분석 등 복잡한 분석보다 차트(chart)에 나타난 그래프(graph)의 모양으로 매매 시점을 찾는 직관적인 방법을 더 선호하는 편이다. 하지만 패턴(pattern) 분석 기법은 IT 구현의 난이도 때문에 사용자들의 요구에 비해 전산화가 덜 된 분야로 여겨진다. 최근에는 인공지능(artificial intelligence, AI) 분야에서 신경망을 비롯한 다양한 기계학습(machine learning) 기법을 사용하여 주가의 패턴을 연구하는 사례가 많아졌다. 특히 IT 기술의 발전으로 방대한 차트 데이터를 분석하여 주가 예측력이 높은 패턴을 발굴하는 것이 예전보다 쉬워졌다. 지금까지의 성과로 볼 때 가격의 단기 예측력은 높아졌지만, 장기 예측력은 한계가 있어서 장기 투자보다 단타 매매에서 활용되는 수준이다. 이외에 과거 기술력으로 인식하지 못했던 패턴을 기계적으로 정확하게 찾아내는 데 초점을 맞춘 연구도 있지만 찾아진 패턴이 매매에 적합한지 아닌지는 별개의 문제이기 때문에 실용적인 부분에서 취약할 수 있다. 본 연구는 주가 예측력이 있는 패턴을 찾으려는 기존 연구 방법과 달리 패턴들을 먼저 정의해 놓고 확률기반으로 선택해서 매매하는 방법을 제안한다. 5개의 전환점으로 정의한 Merrill(1980)의 M&W 파동 패턴은 32가지의 패턴으로 시장 국면 대부분을 설명할 수 있다. 전환점만으로 패턴을 분류하기 때문에 패턴 인식의 정확도를 높이기 위해 드는 비용을 줄일 수 있다. 32개 패턴으로 만들 수 있는 조합의 수는 전수 테스트가 불가능한 수준이다. 그래서 최적화 문제와 관련한 연구들에서 가장 많이 사용되고 있는 인공지능 알고리즘(algorithm) 중 하나인 유전자 알고리즘(genetic algorithm, GA)을 이용하였다. 그리고 미래의 주가가 과거를 반영한다 해도 같게 움직이지 않기 때문에 전진 분석(walk-forward analysis, WFA)방법을 적용하여 과최적화(overfitting)의 실수를 줄이도록 하였다. 20종목씩 6개의 포트폴리오(portfolio)를 구성하여 테스트해 본 결과에 따르면 패턴 매매에서 가격 변동성이 어느 정도 수반되어야 하며 패턴이 진행 중일 때보다 패턴이 완성된 후에 진입, 청산하는 것이 효과적임을 확인하였다.

• 한국잡초학회지
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.200-222
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• 1992

The results of recent researches for improvement of seedling stand in direct seeded rice on the dry paddy in Korea were summarized as the following ; a variety to be cultivated should be chosen the characteristics of high percentage germination under low temperature, shorter period of shoot emergence, and better growth of the mesocotyl and shoots. Meanwhile, there was 40% increase in seedling stand at the treatment of removal of the seed awn under using the drill seeder. After seeding the rice seed covered with soil of 3cm depth was better seedling emergence and also there was the hightest seedling emergence at the 70% of moisture content of the soil. In addition, the application of the Release containing GA 10% enabled to increase the seedling stand and furthermore it was effective under deep seeding depth. The optimum seeding date should be seeded around May 10 when mean air temperature is above 12-13$^{\circ}C$ so that may establish more less 70% in seedling stand. Based on an appropriate seedling stand of 150/$m^2$, the optimum seeding rate was 5kg/10a. It was the best in seeding method using drill seeder and the most desirable recommended seeding method was the drill seeder in terms of seedling stand. In order to improve seedling stand water management was more effective in canal irrigation and in drainage at 6hr after irrigation following by the seeding process. On the other hand, for the increase of seedling stand under flooded condition a variety might have characters being better germination at low concentration of dissolved oxygen and vertically deeper growing of the crown root. Also, seedling stand was able to increase with the seed coating of $CaO_2$in the flooded soil. It was possible to be seeded on the early part of May being mean air temperature of avove 10$^{\circ}C$ and the optimum seeding rate was 5kg/10a. For an effective water management water would be flooded up to 3cm depth for 2-3 weeks after seeding. The rice plant grown under the direct seeded cultivation might be not so much strong in lodging resistance compared to that grown under the transplanting and moreover direct seeded rice cultivation under flooded condition would be more weak growth of the rice plant than that on dry paddy. Meanwhile, the lodging would be affected by the seeding rate, the soil depth after seeding. and seeding method even in the same variety. In particular, roots in the lodging pattern of direct seeded rice cultivation under flooded condition were largely distributed on the soil surface so that resulted easily in the lodging. In general, the lodging resistance would be greater as seeding rate and amount of N fertilizer application are lower and soil depth after seeding is higher. Among the introduction of different seeding method the high ridged drill seeding method on dry paddy soil resulted in the lowest in the lodging index and also it was lower in the drill seeding method than in the scattering seeding method under flooded condition. In case of more than 150 seedlings per $m^2$ there was a severe lodging due to high lodging index at the 3rd and 4th internodes. The effective lodging prevention was able to at the treatment of the Inabenfide at 45 days before heading and the Uniconazol at 15 days before heading which caused the shortage by 10-15cm in culm length. Also, fertilizer management using split application of nitrogen would be contributed the reduction of lodging at the rate of 20-30-20-20-10%(basal-5th leaf stage-7th leaf stage-panicle initiation stage-heading stage) on the dry paddy soil.

• 한국산림과학회지
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• 제108권4호
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• pp.592-599
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• 2019

본 연구는 수간재적과 상관관계가 높은 흉고직경과 수고를 독립변수로 하여 우리나라 일본잎갈나무의 수간재적 추정식을 개발하고자 하였다. 전국의 분포하고 있는 일본잎갈나무를 총 2,840본의 표준목을 벌채하여 수간고별 직경과 수간석해 자료를 수집하여 생장특성을 조사하였다. 6개의 수간재적모델의 적합도 검정을 위하여 적합도지수, 편차, 평균절대편차, 변이계수를 이용하여 모델의 적합성을 판단하였다. 최종 선정된 모델은 흉고직경만을 이용한 Model 1(V=a+bDBH²), 흉고직경과 수고를 이용한 Model 4(V=a+bDBH²H)가 최적의 모델로 선정되었다. 비선형회귀분석을 통한 모델의 절편과 기울기계수인 a, b는 0.05수준에서 통계적으로 유의한 값을 보였다. 적합도지수는 94%~99%로 나타났고, 편차는 두 모델이 0에 근접하였으며, 평균절대편차는 0.01~0.05, 변이계수는 5.97~14.43으로 높은 적합도를 보였다. 본 연구에서 제시된 수간재적모델을 이용하여 현장에서 흉고직경 또는 흉고직경과 수고를 측정한 후 바로 재적을 추정할 수 있으며, 산림경영에 필요한 기초 정보를 제공해 줄 것이다.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• 제57권4호
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• pp.351-359
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• 2024

Background: Major pulmonary resection after neoadjuvant concurrent chemoradiation therapy (nCCRT) is associated with a substantial risk of postoperative complications. This study investigated postoperative complications and associated risk factors to facilitate the selection of suitable surgical candidates following nCCRT in stage IIIA-N2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients diagnosed with clinical stage IIIA-N2 NSCLC who underwent surgical resection following nCCRT between 1997 and 2013. Perioperative characteristics and clinical factors associated with morbidity and mortality were analyzed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 574 patients underwent major lung resection after induction CCRT. Thirty-day and 90-day postoperative mortality occurred in 8 patients (1.4%) and 41 patients (7.1%), respectively. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (n=6, 4.5%) was the primary cause of in-hospital mortality. Morbidity occurred in 199 patients (34.7%). Multivariable analysis identified significant predictors of morbidity, including patient age exceeding 70 years (odds ratio [OR], 1.8; p=0.04), low body mass index (OR, 2.6; p=0.02), and pneumonectomy (OR, 1.8; p=0.03). Patient age over 70 years (OR, 1.8; p=0.02) and pneumonectomy (OR, 3.26; p<0.01) were independent predictors of mortality in the multivariable analysis. Conclusion: In conclusion, the surgical outcomes following nCCRT are less favorable for individuals aged over 70 years or those undergoing pneumonectomy. Special attention is warranted for these patients due to their heightened risks of respiratory complications. In high-risk patients, such as elderly patients with decreased lung function, alternative treatment options like definitive CCRT should be considered instead of surgical resection.

• Korean Circulation Journal
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• 제53권4호
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• pp.254-267
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• 2023

Background and Objectives: Although the shortage of donor is a common problem worldwide, a significant portion of unutilized hearts are classified as marginal donor (MD) hearts. However, research on the correlation between the MD and the prognosis of heart transplantation (HTx) is lacking. This study was conducted to investigate the clinical impact of MD in HTx. Methods: Consecutive 73 HTxs during 2014 and 2021 in a tertiary hospital were analyzed. MD was defined as follows; a donor age >55 years, left ventricular ejection fraction <50%, cold ischemic time >240 minutes, or significant cardiac structural problems. Preoperative characteristics and postoperative hemodynamic data, primary graft dysfunction (PGD), and the survival rate were analyzed. Risk stratification by Index for Mortality Prediction after Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT) score was performed to examine the outcomes according to the recipient state. Each group was sub-divided into 2 risk groups according to the IMPACT score (low <10 vs. high ≥10). Results: A total of 32 (43.8%) patients received an organ from MDs. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was more frequent in the non-MD group (34.4% vs. 70.7, p=0.007) There was no significant difference in PGD, 30-day mortality and long-term survival between groups. In the subgroup analysis, early outcomes did not differ between low- and high-risk groups. However, the long-term survival was better in the low-risk group (p=0.01). Conclusions: The outcomes of MD group were not significantly different from non-MD group. Particularly, in low-risk recipient, the MD group showed excellent early and long-term outcomes. These results suggest the usability of selected MD hearts without increasing adverse events.