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The Influence of Obstructive Sleep Apnea on Systemic Blood Pressure, Cardiac Rhythm and the Changes of Urinary (폐쇄성 수면 무호흡이 전신성 혈압, 심조율 및 요 Catecholamines 농도 변화에 미치는 영향)

  • Lo, Dae-Keun;Choi, Young-Mee;Song, Jeong-Sup;Park, Sung-Hak;Moon, Hwa-Sik
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.1
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    • pp.153-168
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    • 1998
  • Background: The existing data indicate that obstructive sleep apnea syndrome contributes to the development of cardiovascular dysfunction such as systemic hypertension and cardiac arrhythmias, and the cardiovascular dysfunction has a major effect on high long-term mortality rate in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome patients. To a large extent the various studies have helped to clarify the pathophysiology of obstructive sleep apnea, but many basic questions still remain unanswered. Methods: In this study, the influence of obstructive sleep apnea on systemic blood pressure, cardiac rhythm and urinary catecholamines concentration was evaluated. Over-night polysomnography, 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and ECG monitoring, and measurement of urinary catecholamines, norepinephrine (UNE) and epinephrine (UEP), during waking and sleep were undertaken in obstructive sleep apnea syndrome patients group (OSAS, n=29) and control group (Control, n=25). Results: 1) In OSAS and Control, UNE and UEP concentrations during sleep were significantly lower than during waking (P<0.01). In UNE concentrations during sleep, OSAS showed higher levels compare to Control (P<0.05). 2) In OSAS, there was a increasing tendency of the number of non-dipper of nocturnal blood pressure compare to Control (P=0.089). 3) In both group (n=54), mean systolic blood pressure during waking and sleep showed significant correlation with polysomnographic data including apnea index (AI), apnea-hypopnea index (AHI), arterial oxygen saturation nadir ($SaO_2$ nadir) and degree of oxygen desaturation (DOD). And UNE concentrations during sleep were correlated with AI, AHI, $SaO_2$ nadir, DOD and mean diastolic blood pressure during sleep. 4) In OSAS with AI>20 (n==14), there was a significant difference of heart rates before, during and after apneic events (P<0.01), and these changes of heart rates were correlated with the duration of apnea (P<0.01). The difference of heart rates between apneic and postapneic period (${\Delta}HR$) was significantly correlated with the difference of arterial oxygen saturation between before and after apneic event (${\Delta}SaO_2$) (r=0.223, P<0.001). 5) There was no significant difference in the incidence of cardiac arrhythmias between OSAS and Control In Control, the incidence of ventricular ectopy during sleep was significantly lower than during waking. But in OSAS, there was no difference between during waking and sleep. Conclusion : These results suggested that recurrent hypoxia and arousals from sleep in patients with obstructive sleep apnea syndrome may increase sympathetic nervous system activity, and recurrent hypoxia and increased sympathetic nervous system activity could contribute to the development of cardiovascular dysfunction including the changes of systemic blood pressure and cardiac function.

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Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

  • Kim, Myoung-Jong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.29-45
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    • 2012
  • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.

Machine learning-based corporate default risk prediction model verification and policy recommendation: Focusing on improvement through stacking ensemble model (머신러닝 기반 기업부도위험 예측모델 검증 및 정책적 제언: 스태킹 앙상블 모델을 통한 개선을 중심으로)

  • Eom, Haneul;Kim, Jaeseong;Choi, Sangok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.105-129
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    • 2020
  • This study uses corporate data from 2012 to 2018 when K-IFRS was applied in earnest to predict default risks. The data used in the analysis totaled 10,545 rows, consisting of 160 columns including 38 in the statement of financial position, 26 in the statement of comprehensive income, 11 in the statement of cash flows, and 76 in the index of financial ratios. Unlike most previous prior studies used the default event as the basis for learning about default risk, this study calculated default risk using the market capitalization and stock price volatility of each company based on the Merton model. Through this, it was able to solve the problem of data imbalance due to the scarcity of default events, which had been pointed out as the limitation of the existing methodology, and the problem of reflecting the difference in default risk that exists within ordinary companies. Because learning was conducted only by using corporate information available to unlisted companies, default risks of unlisted companies without stock price information can be appropriately derived. Through this, it can provide stable default risk assessment services to unlisted companies that are difficult to determine proper default risk with traditional credit rating models such as small and medium-sized companies and startups. Although there has been an active study of predicting corporate default risks using machine learning recently, model bias issues exist because most studies are making predictions based on a single model. Stable and reliable valuation methodology is required for the calculation of default risk, given that the entity's default risk information is very widely utilized in the market and the sensitivity to the difference in default risk is high. Also, Strict standards are also required for methods of calculation. The credit rating method stipulated by the Financial Services Commission in the Financial Investment Regulations calls for the preparation of evaluation methods, including verification of the adequacy of evaluation methods, in consideration of past statistical data and experiences on credit ratings and changes in future market conditions. This study allowed the reduction of individual models' bias by utilizing stacking ensemble techniques that synthesize various machine learning models. This allows us to capture complex nonlinear relationships between default risk and various corporate information and maximize the advantages of machine learning-based default risk prediction models that take less time to calculate. To calculate forecasts by sub model to be used as input data for the Stacking Ensemble model, training data were divided into seven pieces, and sub-models were trained in a divided set to produce forecasts. To compare the predictive power of the Stacking Ensemble model, Random Forest, MLP, and CNN models were trained with full training data, then the predictive power of each model was verified on the test set. The analysis showed that the Stacking Ensemble model exceeded the predictive power of the Random Forest model, which had the best performance on a single model. Next, to check for statistically significant differences between the Stacking Ensemble model and the forecasts for each individual model, the Pair between the Stacking Ensemble model and each individual model was constructed. Because the results of the Shapiro-wilk normality test also showed that all Pair did not follow normality, Using the nonparametric method wilcoxon rank sum test, we checked whether the two model forecasts that make up the Pair showed statistically significant differences. The analysis showed that the forecasts of the Staging Ensemble model showed statistically significant differences from those of the MLP model and CNN model. In addition, this study can provide a methodology that allows existing credit rating agencies to apply machine learning-based bankruptcy risk prediction methodologies, given that traditional credit rating models can also be reflected as sub-models to calculate the final default probability. Also, the Stacking Ensemble techniques proposed in this study can help design to meet the requirements of the Financial Investment Business Regulations through the combination of various sub-models. We hope that this research will be used as a resource to increase practical use by overcoming and improving the limitations of existing machine learning-based models.

Surgical Treatment for Isolated Aortic Endocarditis: a Comparison with Isolated Mitral Endocarditis (대동맥 판막만을 침범한 감염성 심내막염의 수술적 치료: 승모판막만을 침범한 경우와 비교 연구)

  • Hong, Seong-Beom;Park, Jeong-Min;Lee, Kyo-Seon;Ryu, Sang-Woo;Yun, Ju-Sik;CheKar, Jay-Key;Yun, Chi-Hyeong;Kim, Sang-Hyung;Ahn, Byoung-Hee
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.600-606
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    • 2007
  • Background: Infective endocarditis shows high surgical mortality and morbidity rates, especially for aortic endocarditis. This study attempts to investigate the clinical characteristics and operative results of isolated aortic endocarditis. Material and Method: From July 1990 to May 2005, 25 patients with isolated aortic endocarditis (Group I, male female=18 : 7, mean age $43.2{\pm}18.6$ years) and 23 patients with isolated mitral endocarditis (Group II, male female=10 : 13, mean age $43.2{\pm}17.1$ years) underwent surgical treatment in our hospital. All the patients had native endocarditis and 7 patients showed a bicuspid aortic valve in Group I. Two patients had prosthetic valve endocarditis and one patients developed mitral endocarditis after a mitral valvuloplasty in Group II. Positive blood cultures were obtained from 11 (44.0%) patients in Group I, and 10 (43.3%) patients in Group II, The pre-operative left ventricular ejection fraction for each group was $60.8{\pm}8.7%$ and $62.1{\pm}8.1%$ (p=0.945), respectively. There was moderate to severe aortic regurgitation in 18 patients and vegetations were detected in 17 patients in Group I. There was moderate to severe mitral regurgitation in 19 patients and vegetations were found in 18 patients in Group II. One patient had a ventricular septal defect and another patient underwent a Maze operation with microwaves due to atrial fibrillation. We performed echocardiography before discharge and each year during follow-up. The mean follow-up period was $37.2{\pm}23.5$ (range $9{\sim}123$) months. Result: Postoperative complications included three cases of low cardiac output in Group I and one case each of re-surgery because of bleeding and low cardiac output in Group II. One patient died from an intra-cranial hemorrhage on the first day after surgery in Group I, but there were no early deaths in Group II. The 1, 3-, and 5-year valve related event free rates were 92.0%, 88.0%, and 88.0% for Group I patients, and 91.3%, 76.0%, and 76.0% for Group II patients, respectively. The 1, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 96.0%, 96.0%, and 96.0% for Group I patients, and foo%, 84.9%, and 84.9% for Group II patients, respectively. Conclusion: Acceptable surgical results and mid-term clinical results for aortic endocarditis were seen.