• Title/Summary/Keyword: High order statistics

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A New Exploratory Research on Franchisor's Provision of Exclusive Territories (가맹본부의 배타적 영업지역보호에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Lim, Young-Kyun;Lee, Su-Dong;Kim, Ju-Young
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.37-63
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    • 2012
  • In franchise business, exclusive sales territory (sometimes EST in table) protection is a very important issue from an economic, social and political point of view. It affects the growth and survival of both franchisor and franchisee and often raises issues of social and political conflicts. When franchisee is not familiar with related laws and regulations, franchisor has high chance to utilize it. Exclusive sales territory protection by the manufacturer and distributors (wholesalers or retailers) means sales area restriction by which only certain distributors have right to sell products or services. The distributor, who has been granted exclusive sales territories, can protect its own territory, whereas he may be prohibited from entering in other regions. Even though exclusive sales territory is a quite critical problem in franchise business, there is not much rigorous research about the reason, results, evaluation, and future direction based on empirical data. This paper tries to address this problem not only from logical and nomological validity, but from empirical validation. While we purse an empirical analysis, we take into account the difficulties of real data collection and statistical analysis techniques. We use a set of disclosure document data collected by Korea Fair Trade Commission, instead of conventional survey method which is usually criticized for its measurement error. Existing theories about exclusive sales territory can be summarized into two groups as shown in the table below. The first one is about the effectiveness of exclusive sales territory from both franchisor and franchisee point of view. In fact, output of exclusive sales territory can be positive for franchisors but negative for franchisees. Also, it can be positive in terms of sales but negative in terms of profit. Therefore, variables and viewpoints should be set properly. The other one is about the motive or reason why exclusive sales territory is protected. The reasons can be classified into four groups - industry characteristics, franchise systems characteristics, capability to maintain exclusive sales territory, and strategic decision. Within four groups of reasons, there are more specific variables and theories as below. Based on these theories, we develop nine hypotheses which are briefly shown in the last table below with the results. In order to validate the hypothesis, data is collected from government (FTC) homepage which is open source. The sample consists of 1,896 franchisors and it contains about three year operation data, from 2006 to 2008. Within the samples, 627 have exclusive sales territory protection policy and the one with exclusive sales territory policy is not evenly distributed over 19 representative industries. Additional data are also collected from another government agency homepage, like Statistics Korea. Also, we combine data from various secondary sources to create meaningful variables as shown in the table below. All variables are dichotomized by mean or median split if they are not inherently dichotomized by its definition, since each hypothesis is composed by multiple variables and there is no solid statistical technique to incorporate all these conditions to test the hypotheses. This paper uses a simple chi-square test because hypotheses and theories are built upon quite specific conditions such as industry type, economic condition, company history and various strategic purposes. It is almost impossible to find all those samples to satisfy them and it can't be manipulated in experimental settings. However, more advanced statistical techniques are very good on clean data without exogenous variables, but not good with real complex data. The chi-square test is applied in a way that samples are grouped into four with two criteria, whether they use exclusive sales territory protection or not, and whether they satisfy conditions of each hypothesis. So the proportion of sample franchisors which satisfy conditions and protect exclusive sales territory, does significantly exceed the proportion of samples that satisfy condition and do not protect. In fact, chi-square test is equivalent with the Poisson regression which allows more flexible application. As results, only three hypotheses are accepted. When attitude toward the risk is high so loyalty fee is determined according to sales performance, EST protection makes poor results as expected. And when franchisor protects EST in order to recruit franchisee easily, EST protection makes better results. Also, when EST protection is to improve the efficiency of franchise system as a whole, it shows better performances. High efficiency is achieved as EST prohibits the free riding of franchisee who exploits other's marketing efforts, and it encourages proper investments and distributes franchisee into multiple regions evenly. Other hypotheses are not supported in the results of significance testing. Exclusive sales territory should be protected from proper motives and administered for mutual benefits. Legal restrictions driven by the government agency like FTC could be misused and cause mis-understandings. So there need more careful monitoring on real practices and more rigorous studies by both academicians and practitioners.

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Factors Affecting Use Satisfaction of Medical Institutions on Korean Society Adaptation of the Multicultural Families' Woman (다문화 가정 여성의 한국 사회 적응도가 의료기관 이용과정 만족도에 미치는 영향)

  • Choi, Sung-Suk;Yun, Hyun-Kyuong;Choi, Gyu-Yil
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.13 no.12
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    • pp.5875-5881
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    • 2012
  • Research objectives: This research is focused on the multicultural families based on the existing studies. The problems that the women of the multicultural families experience in this society were studied, in relation to the adaptability to Korea by identifying the elements related to the use of and satisfaction level towards medical institutions. As such, this research is expected to be used as a data that can help to provide quality medical service to the women of the multicultural families. Research method: 188 women of the multicultural families were targeted to carry out research by conducting interview and by leveraging translated survey questionnaire. Then, SPSS 18.0 program was used to conduct statistical analysis. As for the analysis methods, frequency analysis, technical statistics, ANOVA and multiple regression analysis method were used. The results of the research were as follows. First, for the satisfaction level towards medical institutions for each class following each nation, Vietnam manifested highest satisfaction level when it comes to the public sanitation clinic, followed by the Philippines and China in the order listed. Meanwhile, Japan manifested the lowest satisfaction level. In case of the Asian medicine hospital, Japan manifested the highest satisfaction level contrary to the public sanitation clinic, followed by Philippines and China in the order listed. Meanwhile, Vietnam manifested the lowest satisfaction level. Second, 'satisfaction level towards nationality, education level, income, degree of adaptation and access to the medical institutions via transportation,' degree of adaptation towards the Korean society was manifested as an influential variable. As the degree of adaptation towards the Korean society increased, satisfaction level towards the degree of access to the medical institutions via transportation was proven to be high. Third, 'Nationality, education, income, hospital administration to help adapt the level of satisfaction' income if the first 1,5 million to 2,0 million won that low satisfaction than from 1 million to 1,5 million won and Higher of Korean society to adapt was higher Hospital Administrationon the level of satisfaction Conclusion: Nationality, education level, income, degree of adaptation towards the Korean society affect satisfaction level towards medical institutions. To increase the elements that increase the satisfaction level towards the medical institutions, multi-dimensional approach by each nationality, education level and income is required. In particular, it would be considered necessary to increase the level of adaptability to Korea.

An Intelligent Intrusion Detection Model Based on Support Vector Machines and the Classification Threshold Optimization for Considering the Asymmetric Error Cost (비대칭 오류비용을 고려한 분류기준값 최적화와 SVM에 기반한 지능형 침입탐지모형)

  • Lee, Hyeon-Uk;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-173
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    • 2011
  • As the Internet use explodes recently, the malicious attacks and hacking for a system connected to network occur frequently. This means the fatal damage can be caused by these intrusions in the government agency, public office, and company operating various systems. For such reasons, there are growing interests and demand about the intrusion detection systems (IDS)-the security systems for detecting, identifying and responding to unauthorized or abnormal activities appropriately. The intrusion detection models that have been applied in conventional IDS are generally designed by modeling the experts' implicit knowledge on the network intrusions or the hackers' abnormal behaviors. These kinds of intrusion detection models perform well under the normal situations. However, they show poor performance when they meet a new or unknown pattern of the network attacks. For this reason, several recent studies try to adopt various artificial intelligence techniques, which can proactively respond to the unknown threats. Especially, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have popularly been applied in the prior studies because of its superior prediction accuracy. However, ANNs have some intrinsic limitations such as the risk of overfitting, the requirement of the large sample size, and the lack of understanding the prediction process (i.e. black box theory). As a result, the most recent studies on IDS have started to adopt support vector machine (SVM), the classification technique that is more stable and powerful compared to ANNs. SVM is known as a relatively high predictive power and generalization capability. Under this background, this study proposes a novel intelligent intrusion detection model that uses SVM as the classification model in order to improve the predictive ability of IDS. Also, our model is designed to consider the asymmetric error cost by optimizing the classification threshold. Generally, there are two common forms of errors in intrusion detection. The first error type is the False-Positive Error (FPE). In the case of FPE, the wrong judgment on it may result in the unnecessary fixation. The second error type is the False-Negative Error (FNE) that mainly misjudges the malware of the program as normal. Compared to FPE, FNE is more fatal. Thus, when considering total cost of misclassification in IDS, it is more reasonable to assign heavier weights on FNE rather than FPE. Therefore, we designed our proposed intrusion detection model to optimize the classification threshold in order to minimize the total misclassification cost. In this case, conventional SVM cannot be applied because it is designed to generate discrete output (i.e. a class). To resolve this problem, we used the revised SVM technique proposed by Platt(2000), which is able to generate the probability estimate. To validate the practical applicability of our model, we applied it to the real-world dataset for network intrusion detection. The experimental dataset was collected from the IDS sensor of an official institution in Korea from January to June 2010. We collected 15,000 log data in total, and selected 1,000 samples from them by using random sampling method. In addition, the SVM model was compared with the logistic regression (LOGIT), decision trees (DT), and ANN to confirm the superiority of the proposed model. LOGIT and DT was experimented using PASW Statistics v18.0, and ANN was experimented using Neuroshell 4.0. For SVM, LIBSVM v2.90-a freeware for training SVM classifier-was used. Empirical results showed that our proposed model based on SVM outperformed all the other comparative models in detecting network intrusions from the accuracy perspective. They also showed that our model reduced the total misclassification cost compared to the ANN-based intrusion detection model. As a result, it is expected that the intrusion detection model proposed in this paper would not only enhance the performance of IDS, but also lead to better management of FNE.

Evaluation on Climate Change Vulnerability of Korea National Parks (국립공원의 기후변화 취약성 평가)

  • Kim, Chong-Chun;Kim, Tae-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.42-50
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to set the direction to manage national parks to cope with climate change, and offer basic data to establish the relevant policies. Towards this end, this study analyzed the current and future climate change vulnerability of national parks using the 24 proxy variables of vulnerability in the LCCGIS program, a tool to evaluate climate change vulnerability developed by the National Institute of Environmental Research. To analyze and evaluate the current status of and future prospect on climate change vulnerability of national parks, the proxy variable value of climate exposure was calculated by making a GIS spatial thematic map with $1km{\times}1km$ grid unit through the application of climate change scenario (RCP8.5). The values of proxy variables of sensitivity and adaptation capability were calculated using the basic statistics of national parks. The values of three vulnerability evaluation items were calculated regarding the present (2010s) and future (2050s). The current values were applied to the future equally under the assumption that the current state of the proxy variables related to sensitivity and adaptation capability without a future prediction scenario continues. Seoraksan, Odaesan, Jirisan and Chiaksan National Parks are relatively bigger in terms of the current (2010s) climate exposure. The national park, where the variation of heat wave is the biggest is Wolchulsan National Park. The biggest variation of drought occurs to Gyeryongsan National Park, and Woraksan National Park has the biggest variation of heavy rain. Concerning the climate change sensitivity of national parks, Jirisan National Park is the most sensitive, and adaptation capability is evaluated to be the highest. Gayasan National Park's sensitivity is the lowest, and Chiaksan National Park is the lowest in adaptation capability. As for climate change vulnerability, Seoraksan, Odaesan, Chiaksan and Deogyusan National Parks and Hallyeohaesang National Park are evaluated as high at the current period. The national parks, where future vulnerability change is projected to be the biggest, are Jirisan, Woraksan, Chiaksan and Sobaeksan National Parks in the order. Because such items evaluating the climate change vulnerability of national parks as climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability show relative differences according to national parks' local climate environment, it will be necessary to devise the adaptation measures reflecting the local climate environmental characteristics of national parks, rather than establishing uniform adaptation measures targeting all national parks. The results of this study that evaluated climate change vulnerability using climate exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capability targeting Korea's national parks are expected to be used as basic data for the establishment of measures to adapt to climate change in consideration of national parks' local climate environmental characteristics. However, this study analyzed using only the proxy variables presented by LCCGIS program under the situation that few studies on the evaluation of climate change vulnerability of national parks are found, and therefore this study may not reflect overall national parks' environment properly. A further study on setting weights together with an objective review on more proper proxy variables needs to be carried out in order to evaluate the climate change vulnerability of national parks.

A Study on Patients' Concerns about Management of Cancer Pain and Related Factors (종양통증관리를 방해하는 환자의 염려와 관련요인 연구)

  • Kim, Hong-Soo;Suh, Moon-Ja
    • The Korean Journal of Rehabilitation Nursing
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 2000
  • Pain management is a major issue in caring of cancer patients. Patients' concerns for reporting pain and taking analgesics are patient-related barriers to the management of cancer pain. Since such study has not been done at all in Korea, it is clearly needed to study on these problems. The purpose of this study is to attain basic data in order to improve cancer pain management in Korea. This is done by: 1) examining the extent of patients' concerns that might be barriers to the optimal pain management, and the extent of related factors (pain management hesitancy, adequacy of using analgesics, pain severity and pain interference); 2) identifying the relationship between patients' concerns and the related factors. The data has been collected from 180 cancer patients who were hospitalized in medical wards of one university hospital in Seoul, Korea during the period from November 1, 1997 to February 28, 1998. The data has been collected through interviews with (1) Barriers Questionnaire - Korean Version (BQ-K); (2) Hesitancy Experience Questionnaires (HQ); (3) Pain Management Index (PMI); (4) Brief Pain Inventory (BPI); and (5) Demographic Data. The data were analyzed by descriptive statistics and by t-test, One-way ANOVA, Pearson correlation using SPSSWIN program. The Results are as following: 1) The mean scores of Pain Management Concerns (PMC) by BQ-K were toward the moderate with a little high points(2.59). Most of the patients (99.4%) had some extent of concerns (over lout of maximum 5 points). Among the eight subscales of BQ-K, the Pain Management Concerns (PMC) about 'Fear of tolerance' was the highest (3.80) and 'Worry about side effects' was the least (1.40). 2) The extent of Pain Management Hesitancy (PMH) by HQ of wnom had pain on the day of the interview was a little higher than moderate score(5.53 out of maximum 10 points). 6.7% of the patients with experiencing pain used less adequate analgesics for the severity of pain than they were expected. 27.8% of them never used any analgesics at all. The mean score of pain severity by BPI was 16.59 (maximum: 40), and that of the interference with daily life by BPI was 32.03 (maximum: 70). 3) The patients who were older, less educated, and in low socio-economic status were likely to have more concerns. Pain Management Concerns (PMC) was positively correlated with Pain Management Hesitancy (PMH) (r=.75), pain severity (r=.44) and pain interference (r=.50). Those who were not using adequate analgesics had higher Pain Management Concerns (PMC) than did those who were using adequate analgesics (t=-5.42). The patients who had more Pain Management Concerns (PMC) tended to hesitate more to report pain and to use analgesics. They used more inadequate analgesics for the severity of pain and also had experienced more pain severity and interference with daily life. In conclusion, the patients' concerns for reporting pain and for using analgesics are major patient-related barriers to cancer pain management in Korea. The patients' concerns were correlated significantly with the level of the hesitancy experience, inadequate use of analgesics, the pain severity and the interference with daily life. Considering this, an educational program for cancer patients under the treatment with analgesics should be developed in order to solve these problems.

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A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화 대응을 위한 발전소 온배수 활용 양식업 경제성 분석)

  • Lee, Sangsin;Kim, Shang Moon;Um, Gi Jeung
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2011
  • In order to resolve the problem of change in global climate which is worsening as days go by and to preemptively cope with strengthened restriction on carbon emission, the government enacted 'Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth' in 2010 and selected green technology and green industry as new national growth engines. For this reason, the necessity to use the un-utilized waste heat across the whole industrial system has become an issue, and studies on and applications of recycling in the agricultural and fishery fields such as cultivation of tropical crops and flatfishes by utilizing the waste heat and thermal effluent generated by large industrial complexes including power plants are being actively carried out. In this study, we looked into the domestic and overseas examples of having utilized waste heat abandoned in the form of power plant thermal effluent, and carried out economic efficiency evaluation of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of Yeongwol LNG Combined Cycle Power Plant in Gangwon-do. In this analysis, we analyzed the economic efficiency of a model business plan divided into three steps, starting from a small scale in order to minimize the investment risk and financial burden, which is then gradually expanded. The business operation period was assumed to be 10 years (2012~2021), and the NVP (Net Present Value) and economic efficiency (B/C) for the operation period (10 years) were estimated for different loan size by dividing the size of external loan by stage into 80% and 40% based on the basic statistics secured through a site survey. Through the result of analysis, we can see that reducing the size of the external loan is an important factor in securing greater economic efficiency as, while the B/C is 1.79 in the case the external loan is 80% of the total investment, it is presumed to be improved to 1.81 when the loan is 40%. As the findings of this study showed that the economic efficiency of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of power plant can be secured, it is presumed that regional development project items with high added value can be derived though this, and, in addition, this study will greatly contribute to reinforcement of the capability of local governments to cope with climate change.

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Biological Characteristics of the Shigella Species Isolated from Various Areas in Korea, 1985 (1985년 한국 각지에서 분리한 이질균속의 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Doo;Lee, Yun-Tai;Jung, Tae-Hwoa
    • The Journal of the Korean Society for Microbiology
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.79-93
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    • 1987
  • The result of various researches mainly in search of 194 Shigella strains, isolated by the Health Research Centers(situated in Seoul city, Inchon city, Pusan city, Kyonggi-Do, Kangwon-Do, Chungchongnam and Buk-Do, Kyongsangnam and Buk-Do, Jollanam and Buk-Do, and Jaeju-Do) in addition to those clinical laboratories of all the general hospitals situated down twon Seoul, conducted during the month of Jan. through Dec. 85, through the reisolating-activity program following its transportation into the laboratory, particularly for a complete check on its correctiveness, are as follows: 1. Isolation processes were performed with the 194 strains obtained from each placeduring the period of investigation: 164 Strains(84.5%) of Sh. flexneri, B group; 6 Strains(3.1%) of Sh. boydii, C group; 24 Strains(12.3%) of Sh. sonnei, D group, which means there's quite a lot in B group while Sh. dysenteriae, A group was not isolated at all. 2. The isolation rate of the 164, B group for subserotype was 1b, 84(51.2%) the highest one, 2(1.2%) on 3a the lowest one, 4, on C group; In D group subserotype II showed 14(58.4%) more than subserotype I. 3. The biological data on sexuality regarding the isolation-strain showed traditional particularity. But the subserotype 1b in B group 2(2.4%) showed gas-growth from glucose. In subserotype 1a, the indole-growth was 88.9% on masculine which was considerably a good one. In the test of arginine dihydrolase subserotype I among D group showed 100% masculine rate. The subserotype 6 among B group showed 92.5% masculine. In the dissolution test of manitol, all subserotypes showed 100% maculine except subserotype 1b. In the dissolutioning test of rhamnose, the subserotype I among D group showed 100% masculine which is the unusual one. 4. Interms of the area among 13 districts examined, Kangwon-Do had 41(21.1%) which is the highest one on its ratio. 5. In terms of season on the strain isolation category, 44(22.7%) is the number isolated in April which is the highest one. 6. In terms of ages, the strain isolation ratio was notably high above the ages of 60 which was 34(17.5%). Next one was 29(14.9%) which was under the ages of 4. 7. In terms of sex, female was 113 or 58.2% while male was 74 or 38.2%, which means the female had more than the male. 8. The result of the resisting capability on the usage of 12 antibiotic medication was; 100% on chloramphenicol; 94.3% on tetracycline, 82.0% on streptomycin, 76.3% on carbenicillin, 74.7% on ampicillin, in regular order. The strain source bearing multimedication resisivity against the 5 antibiotic medication is as many as 117 or 60.3%. Of which 43.3% of 1b sub serotype, B group was the best one, and thus the resistivity against the antistrain medication seems the tendency is being changed. The summing up of the above result shows the total specific strains isolated in each branch in Korea is 194, of which the main type is Sh. flexneri 84.5%. The isolating rate is almost evenly spreading, although the Kangwon-Do showed the highest rate on the above data. It also shows female is higher than male on its statistics. The tendency on age category showed both on old and infancy generations high. However, the resistant capability against antibacteria medication or vaccine was still remaining on habitual one, particularly tending towards multimedication or vaccine trend.

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A Study on the Relationship between Stress and Climacteric Symptoms of Midlife Men (중년기 남성의 스트레스와 갱년기 증상)

  • Chung, Yeon-Kang;Lee, Jae-On;Han, Kyung-Lim
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.513-522
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    • 2002
  • This study investigated stress and the extent of climacteric symptoms in mid-life men, and examined their relationship in order to better understand the stress and climacteric symptom experiences of mid-life men, and thereby attempted to offer basic materials for the development of a health improvement program that may help increase the quality of life of mid-life men. Three hundred mid-life men whose ages were between 40 and 59 and resided in the Seoul area were subjects of this study. The data were analyzed with the SAS PC program using descriptive statistics to analyze subjects' general characteristics and variables of stress and the extent of climacteric symptoms of the subjects. The relationship between stress and climacteric symptoms were examined by the Pearson Correlation Coefficient, and stress and the extent of climacteric symptoms in relation to the general characteristics were analyzed by T-test and ANOVA. The study conclusions are as follows: 1. Subjects general characteristics The average, age of the subjects was 46 and 47.0% of them reported ages between 40 and 45. Of the subjects, 98% were married. In marriage satisfaction, those who were generally satisfied with their married life comprised 62.0% of the subjects. In terms of level of education, 95.7% were educated above the high school level. In occupational background, 59.7% had occupations related to technologies. As for religion, 42.7% had no religion. In number of children, 67.3% had 2 children. In residential status, 79,3% were living in their own homes. In terms of living arrangements, 87.7% of the subjects were living in the form of nuclear families. 2. Stress and the extent of climacteric symptoms The level of stress was scored as $2.94{\pm}0.74$, and considering that the overall examination score is $27.16{\pm}1.32$, the subjects' stress level was not viewed as particularly high. The average score of the extent of climacteric symptoms was $35.37{\pm}0.27$. The extent of sub-domains of climacteric symptoms included skeleton symptoms ($39.37{\pm}2.81$), joint pain ($39.16{\pm}3.66$), vasomotor symptoms ($35.39{\pm}3.01$), other symptoms ($36.99{\pm}3.02$), psychological symptoms ($34.68{\pm}3.01$), urogenic symptoms ($35.03{\pm}3.27$), and cardiovascular symptoms ($33.70{\pm}2.78$). 3. General characteristics in relation to the stress level The subjects' general characteristics that were significantly related to the level of stress were marriage status (F=4.38, p=.001), marriage satisfaction (F=4.56, p=.001), educational background (F=2.68, p=.012), and age (F=2.48, p=.033). 4. General characteristics in relation to the level of climacteric symptoms The subjects' general characteristics that were significantly related to the level of climacteric symptoms were educational background (F=3.26, p=.007), age (F=2.58, p=.027), marriage status (F=2.62, p=.025), and marriage satisfaction (F=2.78. p=.032). 5. The correlation between stress and climacteric symptoms The subjects' level of stress and climacteric symptoms were significantly related to each other (r=0.578, p=0.000). The subjects' level of stress was correlated with sub-domains of the climacteric symptoms including psychological symptoms (r=0.579, p=0.000), joint pain (r=0.479, p=0.000), skeleton symptoms (r=0.477, p=0.000), other symptoms (r=0.467, p=0.000), vasomotor symptoms (r=0.4615, p=0.000), cardiovascular symptoms (r=0.458, p=0.000), urogenic symptoms (r=0.401. p=0.000). In summary, the climacteric symptoms suffered by mid-life men are positively correlated with their level of stress. In addition, the climacteric symptoms were affected by the level of stress.

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Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

The Effects of Family Friendship on the Elderly's Consciousness: A Study on the Effects of Mediation on the Recognition of the Elderly and the Attitude to Dementia (청소년이 지각한 가족친밀감이 노인부양의식에 미치는 영향: 노인인식과 치매에 대한 태도의 매개효과 검증)

  • Choi, Yun Ji;Oh, Kwang Soo
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.723-739
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    • 2019
  • This study is to verify the mediated effects of attitudes toward old people and dementia in the influence of elderly couples in the aging society amid the rapidly changing family structure and functions due to the combination of individualization, marital status and divorce rate. In order to carry out such research purposes, data were collected from students of elementary, middle and high schools in Gwangju, through self-subscribed questionnaire. For statistical analysis, the SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 18.0 programs were used and frequency, percentages, technical statistics, correlation, factor analysis, structural model validation, and the Sobel-Test were performed. The results of this study are as follows. First, family intimacy, elderly awareness, and elderly care were the highest among elementary school students, followed by middle school and high school students (P.<.001). Also, in religion, the family intimacy of teenagers with religion was higher than those without religion (p.001). Second, family intimacy directly affected elderly people's attitudes toward dementia and elderly care, old people's attitudes toward dementia and attitudes toward dementia directly affected elderly care. Third, family intimacy (parent-child) was found to be 7.8% for older adults, 20.2% for family intimacy and attitudes toward dementia, and 34.1% for elderly care (p.<.001). Fourth, it has been verified that the absolute value of attitudes toward dementia and elderly people's awareness of elderly people and attitudes between family intimacy and elderly care has been higher than 1.96 and thus acts as a mediating role. These findings are intended to contribute to the welfare of senior citizens' education to improve the quality of life for senior citizens through the resolution of conflicts between generations, as well as the resolution of positive stimulus, by developing various programs such as family friendship, elderly awareness, culture with parents, and various experiences to improve attitudes toward dementia in early adolescence.