• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard prediction

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Ratio of Torsion (ROT): An index for assessing the global induced torsion in plan irregular buildings

  • Stathi, Chrysanthi G.;Bakas, Nikolaos P.;Lagaros, Nikos D.;Papadrakakis, Manolis
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.145-171
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    • 2015
  • Due to earthquakes, many structures suffered extensive damages that were attributed to the torsional effect caused by mass, stiffness or strength eccentricity. Due to this type of asymmetry torsional moments are generated that are imposed by means of additional shear forces developed at the vertical resisting structural elements of the buildings. Although the torsional effect on the response of reinforced concrete buildings was the subject of extensive research over the last decades, a quantitative index measuring the amplification of the shear forces developed at the vertical resisting elements due to lateral-torsional coupling valid for both elastic and elastoplastic response states is still missing. In this study a reliable index capable of assessing the torsional effect is proposed. The performance of the proposed index is evaluated and its correlation with structural response quantities like displacements, interstorey drift, base torque, shear forces and upper diaphragm's rotation is presented. Torsionally stiff, mass eccentric single-story and multistory structures, subjected to bidirectional excitation, are considered and nonlinear dynamic analyses are performed using natural records selected for three hazard levels. It was found that the proposed index provides reliable prediction of the magnitude of torsional effect for all test examples considered.

Stability Estimation of NATM Tunnel due to Excavation using Back Analysis (역해석기법을 통한 NATM 터널의 안정성 평가)

  • Lee, Jae-Ho;Kim, Young-Su;Jin, Guang-Ril;Park, Jin-Kyu;Park, Si-Hyun;Choi, Chil-Yong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2008.03a
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    • pp.494-504
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    • 2008
  • Successful design, construction and maintenance of NATM tunnel demands prediction, control, stability estimation and monitoring of surface settlement, gradient and ground displacement with high accuracy. Back analysis using measured data and forward analysis have been and are indispensable tools to achieve this goal. Sakurai provided the hazard warning levels for assessing the stability of tunnels using the relation of critical strain and apparent Young's modulus. This paper performed the estimation of tunnel stability on construction. Firstly, the apparent Young's modulus concept and back analysis method is introduced for the assessment of tunnel safety during excavation a brief framework. Secondly, this paper deals with case study using "Apparent Young's modulus" and "Back analysis" for the purpose of estimating the stability of NATM tunnel in Korea. Finally, a general method that can be estimated the tunnel stability discussed by a flow chart.

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The Importance of a Borrower's Track Record on Repayment Performance: Evidence in P2P Lending Market

  • KIM, Dongwoo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.7
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    • pp.85-93
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    • 2020
  • In peer-to-peer (P2P) loan markets, as most lenders are unskilled and inexperienced ordinary individuals, it is important to know the characteristics of borrowers that significantly impact their repayment performance. This study investigates the effects and importance of borrowers' past repayment performance track record within the platform to identify its predictive power. To this end, I analyze the detailed loan repayment data from two leading P2P lending platforms in Korea using a Cox proportional hazard, multiple linear regression, and logit models. Furthermore, the predictive power of the factors proxied by borrowers' track records are evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. As a result, it is found that the borrowers' past track record within the platform have the most important impact on the repayment performance of their current loans. In addition, this study also reveals that the borrowers' track record is much more predictive of their repayment performance than any other factor. The findings of this study emphasize that individual lenders must take into account the quality of borrowers' past transaction history when making a funding decision, and that platform operators should actively share the borrowers' past records within the markets with lenders.

The Measurement and Prediction of Maximum Flash Point Behavior for Binary Solution (이성분계 용액의 최대인화점 현상의 측정과 예측)

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong;Lee, Sungjin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.70-74
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    • 2013
  • The flash point is one of the most important physical properties to charaterize fire and explosion hazard of liquid solutions. The maximum flash point of liquid mixture is larger than those of the individual components. In this study, the flash points of 2-pentanol+acetic acid system were measured by Seta flash closed cup tester. This system exhibited the maximum flash point behavior. The flash points were estimated by the Raoult's law and the optimization methods using the van Laar and Wilson equations. The calculated values by optimization methods were found to be better than those based on the Raoult's law.

A Comparative Study of the Frequency Ratio and Evidential Belief Function Models for Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

  • Yoo, Youngwoo;Baek, Taekyung;Kim, Jinsoo;Park, Soyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.597-607
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    • 2016
  • The goal of this study was to analyze landslide susceptibility using two different models and compare the results. For this purpose, a landslide inventory map was produced from a field survey, and the inventory was divided into two groups for training and validation, respectively. Sixteen landslide conditioning factors were considered. The relationships between landslide occurrence and landslide conditioning factors were analyzed using the FR (Frequency Ratio) and EBF (Evidential Belief Function) models. The LSI (Landslide Susceptibility Index) maps that were produced were validated using the ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) curve and the SCAI (Seed Cell Area Index). The AUC (Area under the ROC Curve) values of the FR and EBF LSI maps were 80.6% and 79.5%, with prediction accuracies of 72.7% and 71.8%, respectively. Additionally, in the low and very low susceptibility zones, the FR LSI map had higher SCAI values compared to the EBF LSI map, as high as 0.47%p. These results indicate that both models were reasonably accurate, however that the FR LSI map had a slightly higher accuracy for landslide susceptibility mapping in the study area.

Real-time seismic structural response prediction system based on support vector machine

  • Lin, Kuang Yi;Lin, Tzu Kang;Lin, Yo
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2020
  • Floor acceleration plays a major role in the seismic design of nonstructural components and equipment supported by structures. Large floor acceleration may cause structural damage to or even collapse of buildings. For precision instruments in high-tech factories, even small floor accelerations can cause considerable damage in this study. Six P-wave parameters, namely the peak measurement of acceleration, peak measurement of velocity, peak measurement of displacement, effective predominant period, integral of squared velocity, and cumulative absolute velocity, were estimated from the first 3 s of a vertical ground acceleration time history. Subsequently, a new predictive algorithm was developed, which utilizes the aforementioned parameters with the floor height and fundamental period of the structure as the new inputs of a support vector regression model. Representative earthquakes, which were recorded by the Structure Strong Earthquake Monitoring System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan from 1992 to 2016, were used to construct the support vector regression model for predicting the peak floor acceleration (PFA) of each floor. The results indicated that the accuracy of the predicted PFA, which was defined as a PFA within a one-level difference from the measured PFA on Taiwan's seismic intensity scale, was 96.96%. The proposed system can be integrated into the existing earthquake early warning system to provide complete protection to life and the economy.

The Measurement of Flash Point of Water-Methanol and Water-Ethanol Systems Using Seta Flash Closed Cup Tester (Seta Flash 밀폐식 장치를 이용한 Water-Methanol과 Water-Ethanol계의 인화점 측정)

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong;Park, Sang Hun;Lee, Sungjin
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.39-43
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    • 2015
  • The flash point is the major property to characterize fire and explosion hazard of liquid mixtures. The flash point is the lowest temperature at which a liquid gives off enough vapor to form a flammable air-vapor mixture. The flash points of two aqueous mixtures, water-methanol and water-ethanol, were measured using Seta flash closed cup tester. A prediction method based on activity coefficient models, Wilson and UNIQUAC equations, was used to calculate the flash point. The calculated flash points were compared to the results by the calculating method using Raoult's law. The calculated values based on activity coefficients models were found to be better than those based on the Raoult's law.

Simulation of Ground Motions from Gyeongju Earthquake using Point Source Model (점지진원 모델을 이용한 경주 지진으로 인한 지반운동 생성)

  • Ha, Seong Jin;Jee, Hyun Woo;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.7_spc
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    • pp.537-543
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    • 2016
  • In low to moderate seismic regions, there are limited earthquake ground motion data recorded from past earthquakes. In this regard, the Gyeongju earthquake (M=5.8)occurred on September 12, 2016 produces valuable information on ground motions. Ground motions were recorded at various recording stations located widely in Korean peninsula. Without actual recoded ground motions, it is impossible to make a ground motion prediction model. In this study, a point source model is constructed to accurately simulate ground motions recorded at different stations located on different soil conditions during the Gyeongju earthquake. Using the model, ground motions are generated at all grid locations of Korean peninsula. Each grid size has $0.1^{\circ}(latitude){\times}0.1^{\circ}(longitude)$. Then a contour hazard map is constructed using the peak ground acceleration of the simulated ground motions.

Natural Hazard Prediction System for a Private Company (민간보험사의 자연재해예측시스템 구축)

  • Park, Jun-Ho;Jang, Eun-Mi
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2007.10a
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    • pp.193-199
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    • 2007
  • 늘어나는 자연재해에 대응하여 새로운 보험 상품이 개발되고 있으며, 보험료 및 보험보상료의 증가에 따른 재보험율의 조정과정이 과학적 근거하에 작업이 이루어져야함에도 불구하고 2006년까지 이와 같은 재해 규모와 피해를 예측하거나 모의할 수 있는 시스템은 한국에서는 거의 드문 상황이었다. 본 과제의 목적은 남한 지역을 대상으로 하여 지진, 태풍, 해일, 풍수해 등의 주요4대 재해에 대한 정보를 지리정보와 더불어 구축하여, 민간 보험사에서 자연재해에 대응하여 계획을 세우고, 과학적인 기준 마련하는 것이다. 구축된 데이터는 국가NGIS 사업의 결과물인 1: 5,000 수치지도를 근간으로 하여 각 재해별로 참조할 수 있는 각 부처의 자료를 가공하여 격자화 하여 구축하였으며, 민간보험사에 보유하고 있는 물건의 주소를 포인트 위치로 산정하여 지역별로 검색이 가능하도록 구축하였다. K-weather 등의 기상정보서비스를 실시간으로 연결하여, 태풍 및 풍수해 발생시78개 지점의 자료가 실시간으로 입수되어 주변현황을 모의할 수 있도록 하였으며, 종합적인 피해모델의 경우는 주로 물건의 수와 총액수준으로 평가할 수 있도록 하였다. 각 재해에 대한 취약성 함수는 뮌헨 재보험사의 것을 기본으로 하였으나 상세한 변수조정은 실제 자료를 대응시키면서 최적화된 값을 선정하였다. 본 시스템 구축은 과거자료를 중심으로 한 부분과 임의의 태풍 및 강수량을 특정위치에 적용하였을 때, 보험사가 지불해야할 보험금 액수를 산정할 수 있도록 하였으며, 향후 보험 상품의 지역적 차별화에 근거자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다. 각 재해의 총합이 각 행정구역과 격자의 위험도로 상대적인 위험도 주제도가 생산이 됨에 따라 보다 합리적인 민간회사의 의사결정에 GIS가 사용될 수 있음을 보여주는 사례로 연구의 의의를 두겠다.

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Numerical and random simulation procedure for preliminary local site characterization and site factor assessing

  • Beneldjouzi, Mohamed;Laouami, Nasser;Slimani, Abdennasser
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2017
  • Seismic analysis of local site conditions is fundamental for a reliable site seismic hazard assessment. It plays a major role in mitigation of seismic damage potential through the prediction of surface ground motion in terms of amplitude, frequency content and duration. Such analysis requires the determination of the transfer function, which is a simple tool for characterizing a soil profile by estimating its vibration frequencies and its amplification potential. In this study, numerical simulations are carried out and are then combined with a statistical study to allow the characterization of design sites classified by the Algerian Building Seismic Code (RPA99, ver 2003), by average transfer functions. The mean transfer functions are thereafter used to compute RPA99 average site factors. In this regard, coming up seismic fields are simulated based on Power Spectral Density Functions (PSDF) defined at the rock basement. Results are also used to compute average site factor where, actual and synthetic time histories are introduced. In absence of measurement data, it is found that the proposed approach can be used for a better soil characterization.