• 제목/요약/키워드: Hazard prediction

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Prediction of Tumor Progression During Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Survival Outcome in Patients With Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

  • Heera Yoen;Soo-Yeon Kim;Dae-Won Lee;Han-Byoel Lee;Nariya Cho
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.626-639
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To investigate the association of clinical, pathologic, and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) variables with progressive disease (PD) during neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Materials and Methods: This single-center retrospective study included 252 women with TNBC who underwent NAC between 2010 and 2019. Clinical, pathologic, and treatment data were collected. Two radiologists analyzed the pre-NAC MRI. After random allocation to the development and validation sets in a 2:1 ratio, we developed models to predict PD and DMFS using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression, respectively, and validated them. Results: Among the 252 patients (age, 48.3 ± 10.7 years; 168 in the development set; 84 in the validation set), PD was occurred in 17 patients and 9 patients in the development and validation sets, respectively. In the clinical-pathologic-MRI model, the metaplastic histology (odds ratio [OR], 8.0; P = 0.032), Ki-67 index (OR, 1.02; P = 0.044), and subcutaneous edema (OR, 30.6; P = 0.004) were independently associated with PD in the development set. The clinical-pathologic-MRI model showed a higher area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than the clinical-pathologic model (AUC: 0.69 vs. 0.54; P = 0.017) for predicting PD in the validation set. Distant metastases occurred in 49 patients and 18 patients in the development and validation sets, respectively. Residual disease in both the breast and lymph nodes (hazard ratio [HR], 6.0; P = 0.005) and the presence of lymphovascular invasion (HR, 3.3; P < 0.001) were independently associated with DMFS. The model consisting of these pathologic variables showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.86 in the validation set. Conclusion: The clinical-pathologic-MRI model, which considered subcutaneous edema observed using MRI, performed better than the clinical-pathologic model for predicting PD. However, MRI did not independently contribute to the prediction of DMFS.

A Riverbed Change Prediction by River-Crossing Structure -Focused on the Major River Reaches of the Multifunctional Administrative City- (하천 횡단구조물에 의한 하상변동 예측 - 행정중심복합도시 주요 하천구간을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeon, Kyu-Sung;Jeong, Sang-Man;Yun, Chan-Young;Lee, Joo-Heon;Shin, Kwang-Seob
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2009
  • This study has been conducted for the long-term riverbed change prediction on Geum River and Miho Stream surrounding the planned Multifunctional Administrative City and the neighboring regions by the construction of a small dam. Based on the analysis of vertical riverbed changes of the cross-sectional data for the years 1988, 2002 and 2007, minimum bed elevation significantly decreased in both Geum River and Miho Stream in 2007 as compared to 1988. Compared to 2002, however, a slight elevation change was observed. To make a long-term prediction on riverbed changes by the construction of a small dam, a one dimensional HEC-RAS 4.0 model has been used. By the fixed bed model test, the water levels were calibrated. By using the cross-sectional data of 1988 and 2002, verification was conducted under a movable bed model. According to the prediction of riverbed changes for each scenario with varying height of small dam, minor impact is expected around Miho Stream while major impact is expected around Geum River by 2017, as the small dam height increases. If the small dam is 7m-high, for example, it's been simulated that 1.59m deposition would be expected around the upper stream of Miho Stream Confluence while 1.98m scour would be expected around the downstream of the small dam.

Prediction of Heavy Metal Content in Compost Using Near-infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy

  • Ko, H.J.;Choi, H.L.;Park, H.S.;Lee, H.W.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제17권12호
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    • pp.1736-1740
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    • 2004
  • Since the application of relatively high levels of heavy metals in the compost poses a potential hazard to plants and animals, the content of heavy metals in the compost with animal manure is important to know if it is as a fertilizer. Measurement of heavy metals content in the compost by chemical methods usually requires numerous reagents, skilled labor and expensive analytical equipment. The objective of this study, therefore, was to explore the application of near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS), a nondestructive, cost-effective and rapid method, for the prediction of heavy metals contents in compost. One hundred and seventy two diverse compost samples were collected from forty-seven compost facilities located along the Han river in Korea, and were analyzed for Cr, As, Cd, Cu, Zn and Pb levels using inductively coupled plasma spectrometry. The samples were scanned using a Foss NIRSystem Model 6500 scanning monochromator from 400 to 2,500 nm at 2 nm intervals. The modified partial least squares (MPLS), the partial least squares (PLS) and the principal component regression (PCR) analysis were applied to develop the most reliable calibration model, between the NIR spectral data and the sample sets for calibration. The best fit calibration model for measurement of heavy metals content in compost, MPLS, was used to validate calibration equations with a similar sample set (n=30). Coefficient of simple correlation (r) and standard error of prediction (SEP) were Cr (0.82, 3.13 ppm), As (0.71, 3.74 ppm), Cd (0.76, 0.26 ppm), Cu (0.88, 26.47 ppm), Zn (0.84, 52.84 ppm) and Pb (0.60, 2.85 ppm), respectively. This study showed that NIRS is a feasible analytical method for prediction of heavy metals contents in compost.

Determining Whether to Enter a Hazardous Area Using Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Techniques and Improving the Training of Small Models with Knowledge Distillation (보행자 경로 예측 기법을 이용한 위험구역 진입 여부 결정과 Knowledge Distillation을 이용한 작은 모델 학습 개선)

  • Choi, In-Kyu;Lee, Young Han;Song, Hyok
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • 제25권9호
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    • pp.1244-1253
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    • 2021
  • In this paper, we propose a method for predicting in advance whether pedestrians will enter the hazardous area after the current time using the pedestrian trajectory prediction method and an efficient simplification method of the trajectory prediction network. In addition, we propose a method to apply KD(Knowledge Distillation) to a small network for real-time operation in an embedded environment. Using the correlation between predicted future paths and hazard zones, we determined whether to enter or not, and applied efficient KD when learning small networks to minimize performance degradation. Experimentally, it was confirmed that the model applied with the simplification method proposed improved the speed by 37.49% compared to the existing model, but led to a slight decrease in accuracy. As a result of learning a small network with an initial accuracy of 91.43% using KD, It was confirmed that it has improved accuracy of 94.76%.

Development of an integrated approach for Algerian building seismic damage assessment

  • Boukri, Mehdi;Farsi, Mohammed Naboussi;Mebarki, Ahmed;Belazougui, Mohamed
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제47권4호
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    • pp.471-493
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents a framework for seismic damage evaluation for Algerian buildings adapted from HAZUS approach (Hazard-United States). Capacity and fragility curves were adapted to fit the Algerian building typologies (Reinforced Concrete structures, Confined or Non-Confined Masonry, etc). For prediction purposes, it aims to estimate the damages and potential losses that may be generated by a given earthquake in a prone area or country. Its efficiency is validated by comparing the estimated and observed damages in Boumerd$\grave{e}$s city, in the aftermath of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s earthquake (Algeria: May $21^{st}$ 2003; $M_w$ = 6.8). For this purpose, observed damages reported for almost 3,700 buildings are compared to the theoretical predictions obtained under two distinct modelling of the seismic hazard. In one hand, the site response spectrum is built according to real accelerometric records obtained during the main shock. In the other hand, the effective Algerian seismic code response spectrum (RPA 99) in use by the time of the earthquake is considered; it required the prior fitting of Boumerd$\grave{e}$s site PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) provided by Ambraseys' attenuation relationship.

Prediction of Strong Ground Motion in Moderate-Seismicity Regions Using Deterministic Earthquake Scenarios

  • Kang, Tae-Seob
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2007
  • For areas such as the Korean Peninsula, which have moderate seismic activity but no available records of strong ground motion, synthetic seismograms can be used to evaluate ground motion without waiting for a strong earthquake. Such seismograms represent the estimated ground motions expected from a set of possible earthquake scenarios. Local site effects are especially important in assessing the seismic hazard and possible ground motion scenarios for a specific fault. The earthquake source and rupture dynamics can be described as a two-step process of rupture initiation and front propagation controlled by a frictional sliding mechanism. The seismic wavefield propagates through heterogeneous geological media and finally undergoes near-surface modulations such as amplification or deamplification. This is a complex system in which various scales of physical phenomena are integrated. A unified approach incorporates multi-scale problems of dynamic rupture, radiated wave propagation, and site effects into an all-in-one model using a three-dimensional, fourth-order, staggered-grid, finite-difference method. The method explains strong ground motions as products of complex systems that can be modified according to a variety of fine-scale rupture scenarios and friction models. A series of such deterministic earthquake scenarios can shed light on the kind of damage that would result and where it would be located.

A dominant vibration mode-based scalar ground motion intensity measure for single-layer reticulated domes

  • Zhong, Jie;Zhi, Xudong;Fan, Feng
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.245-264
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    • 2016
  • A suitable ground motion intensity measure (IM) plays a crucial role in the seismic performance assessment of a structure. In this paper, we introduce a scalar IM for use in evaluating the seismic response of single-layer reticulated domes. This IM is defined as the weighted geometric mean of the spectral acceleration ordinates at the periods of the dominant vibration modes of the structure considered, and the modal strain energy ratio of each dominant vibration mode is the corresponding weight. Its applicability and superiority to 11 other existing IMs are firstly investigated in terms of correlation with the nonlinear seismic response, efficiency and sufficiency using the results of incremental dynamic analyses which are performed for a typical single-layer reticulated dome. The hazard computability of this newly proposed IM is also briefly discussed and illustrated. A conclusion is drawn that this dominant vibration mode-based scalar IM has the characteristics of strong correlation, high efficiency, good sufficiency as well as hazard computability, and thereby is appropriate for use in the prediction of seismic response of single-layer reticulated domes.

Dispersion Modeling Methodology for Hazardous/Toxic Gas Releases from Chemical Plant Facilities (화학장치설비의 유해독성가스 누출에 대한 분산모델링 방법론)

  • Song Duk-Man
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.73-80
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    • 1997
  • This study was performed to develop the dispersion modeling methodology for quantitative prediction of the hazard distance or toxic buffer distance by comparing 10-min average, 30-min average, and 1-hr average maximum ground-level concentration with $Cl_2$ regultaion concentration, IDLH and ERPG-3 concentration for hazardous toxic gas, $Cl_2$ releases from the storage tank of the chemical plant facilities. For this dispersion modeling, the source term model, dispersion model, meteorological and topographical data are incorporated into the SuperChems model, and then the effects of the atmospheric stability, wind speed, and surface roughness length changes on the maxum ground-level concentration were estimated.

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An Experimental Study of Material Characteristics for GFRP Pipes (GFRP 관로의 재료 특성에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Han, Taek-Hee;Kim, Sung-Nam;Kang, Young-Jong;Yoon, Ki-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • 제4권2호
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2004
  • Recently, the composite material becomes more popular and its usage is kept expanding from aerospace to civil structures such as bridge decks and irrigation and drainage pipes. The major cause for the popularity can be found in its high strength, light, and excellent anticorrosive properties. Nevertheless the methods to accurately predict and analyze its structural behavior are extremely limited. This has been the major reason circumventing more prevalent use of the composite materials in civil structures. This study is a pre-study to develop the analyzing models for accurate prediction of the composite material structures. Thus, various tests were performed for GFRP pipes to estimate material characteristics of GFRP in this study. And stress-strain relation of GFRP was suggested as a bilinear relation.

Development of Fatigue Performance Model of Asphalt Concrete using Dissipate Energy

  • Kim, Nak-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • 제10권3호
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    • pp.39-43
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    • 2010
  • The main objective of this research is to develop a mechanistic performance predictive model for fatigue cracking of asphalt-aggregate mixtures. Controlled-stress diametral fatigue tests were performed to characterize fatigue cracking of asphalt-aggregate mixtures. Performance prediction model for fatigue cracking was developed using the internal damage ratio (IDR) growth method. In the IDR growth method, the general concepts of the dissipated energy, the reference tensile strain, the threshold tensile strain, and the strain shift factor were introduced. The source of the dissipated energy in the fatigue test is from the intrinsic viscoelastic material property of an asphalt concrete mixture and the damage growth within the asphalt concrete specimen. In controlled-stress mode test, the dissipated energy is gradually increased with an increasing number of load applications.