• 제목/요약/키워드: Hazard increase

검색결과 378건 처리시간 0.029초

Use of the t-Distribution to Construct Seismic Hazard Curves for Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments

  • Yee, Eric
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2017
  • Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Blast fragility of base-isolated steel moment-resisting buildings

  • Dadkhah, Hamed;Mohebbi, Mohtasham
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.461-475
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    • 2021
  • Strategic structures are a potential target of the growing terrorist attacks, so their performance under explosion hazard has been paid attention by researchers in the last years. In this regard, the aim of this study is to evaluate the blast-resistance performance of lead-rubber bearing (LRB) base isolation system based on a probabilistic framework while uncertainties related to the charge weight and standoff distance have been taken into account. A sensitivity analysis is first performed to show the effect of explosion uncertainty on the response of base-isolated buildings. The blast fragility curve is then developed for three base-isolated steel moment-resisting buildings with different heights of 4, 8 and 12 stories. The results of sensitivity analysis show that although LRB has the capability of reducing the peak response of buildings under explosion hazard, this control system may lead to increase in the peak response of buildings under some explosion scenarios. This shows the high importance of probabilistic-based assessment of isolated structures under explosion hazard. The blast fragility analysis shows effective performance of LRB in mitigating the probability of failure of buildings. Therefore, LRB can be introduced as effective control system for the protection of buildings from explosion hazard regarding uncertainty effect.

BENZENE AND LEUKEMIA An Epidemiologic Risk Assessment

  • Rinsky Robert A.;Smith Alexander B.;Hornung Richard;Filloon Thomas G.;Young Ronald J.;Okun Andrea H.;Landrigan Philip J.
    • 대한예방의학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한예방의학회 1994년도 교수 연수회(환경)
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    • pp.651-657
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    • 1994
  • To assess quantitatively the association between benzene exposure and leukemia, we examined the mortality rate of a cohort with occupational exposure to benzene. Cumulative exposure for each cohort member was estimated from historical air-sampling data and, when no sampling data existed, from interpolation on the basis of existing data. The overall standardized mortality ratio (a measure of relative risk multiplied by 100) for leukemia was 337 (95 percent confidence interval, 154 to 641), and that for multiple myeloma was 409 (95 percent confidence interval, 110 to 1047). With stratification according to levels of cumulative exposure, the standardized mortality ratios for leukemia increased from 109 to 322, 1186, and 6637 with increases in cumulative benzene exposure from less than 40 parts per million-years (ppm-years), to 40 to 199, 200 to 399, and 400 or more. respectively. A cumulative benzene exposure of 400 ppm years is equivalent to a mean annual exposure of 10 ppm over a 40-year working lifetime; 10 ppm is the currently enforceable standard in the United States for occupational exposure to benzene. To examine the shape of the exposure-response relation, we performed a conditional logistic-regression analysis, in which 10 controls were matched to each cohort member with leukemia. From this model, it can be calculated that protection from benzene induced leukemia would increase exponentially with any reduction in the permissible exposure limit.

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Research on the Safety Improvement Method for the Company' s RAMS Management Business and Public Infrastructure

  • 이종범;조재립
    • 한국품질경영학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국품질경영학회 2010년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.254-261
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    • 2010
  • The increase in hazard level is attributed to the industrial hazard environment; complete national environmental hazards to human health include climate change. The damage level in Korea from 1993 to 2009 has exceeded the Increase In adverse environmental conditions. Priority areas of concern will include those risks that are most likely to occur and are expensive when they do take place such as accident or injury at a community pool. Therefore, in this paper, we suggest the System Engineering method for application to the railway RAMS. Recently, the requirement of high-integrity level of infrastructure has been deemed important. The systems level approach is defined through the assessment of the RAMS interactions between elements of complex system applications.

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폭염 대응전략 수립을 위한 폭염위험도 시각화 플랫폼 (The Hazard Viz-platform for the Establishment of Heatwave Response Strategies)

  • 김미연
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제23권5호
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    • pp.683-699
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the earth's highest temperature is rising due to severe climate change and heat wave. In addition, due to the increase of elderly population over 65, the number of heat patients is also increasing. In particular, the elderly who live alone in poor living environments, the lower income group, and the socially disadvantaged, such as children and pregnant women, are exposed to the dangers of heat waves, so the government's practical measures are urgently needed. In this study, we will build a visualization platform for each level of heat wave and provide the necessary countermeasure solution according to the heat wave risk. "The Hazard Visualization Platform for Heatwave" provide not only simple information, but also a customized safety service for citizens to prevent heatwaves, respond to heatwaves, and utilize heat wave information.

고압 산소 치료기에 대한 예비위험분석 (Preliminary Hazard Analysis for a Hyperbaric Oxygen Chamber)

  • 전태보
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제33권A호
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    • pp.3-8
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    • 2013
  • Reduction of risk plays a pivotal role in the development of medical instruments. A hyperbaric oxygen chamber, as a medical device, is known to help medical therapy for diversity of diseases through provision of high purity oxygen. The use of hyperbaric oxygen is expected to increase in the future and study to rigorously examine reliability and safety is needed. We have performed risk assessment for a newly developed hyperbaric oxygen chamber in this study. We first briefly discussed the system structure and concept of risk assessment for the study. Based on the hazards identified, we performed preliminary hazard analysis for the chamber.

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다중 Logistic 회귀분석을 통한 침수지역의 확률적 도출 (The probabilistic estimation of inundation region using a multiple logistic regression analysis)

  • 정민규;김진국;오랑치맥 솜야;권현한
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.121-129
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    • 2020
  • 도시화로 인한 불투수층 증가와 하천 주변 개발은 홍수 시 위험에 노출되는 재해요인의 증가뿐 아니라 피해의 파급을 발생시켜 홍수 관리 측면에서 어려움을 낳는다. 홍수 방재대책을 위해서는 도시지역에 분포하는 다양한 지표면 공간특성을 반영하여 침수가 예상되는 지역에 대한 파악이 우선시되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 도시하천의 홍수 위험지역을 대상으로 확률적 홍수위험 평가가 수행되었다. 홍수와 관련된 지형적 영향요인인 고도, 경사, 유출곡선지수, 하천까지 거리를 예측변수로 하여 하천 주변 침수 예상지역을 설명하기 위해 모형의 학습데이터로 100년 빈도 홍수위험 지도가 사용되었다. 연구 대상 지역은 격자로 변환하여 Bayesian Logistic 회귀분석을 수행하여 각 격자별로 홍수영향요인이 침수 여부를 설명하는 모형을 구축하였다. 최종적으로 모형을 통해 대상 지역 전체에 대하여 침수위험도를 확률적으로 제시하였다.

Mechanical and fracture behavior of rock mass with parallel concentrated joints with different dip angle and number based on PFC simulation

  • Zhao, Weihua;Huang, Runqiu;Yan, Ming
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • 제8권6호
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    • pp.757-767
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    • 2015
  • Rock mass is an important engineering material. In hydropower engineering, rock mass of bank slope controlled the stability of an arch dam. However, mechanical characteristics of the rock mass are not only affected by lithology, but also joints. On the basis of field geological survey, this paper built rock mass material containing parallel concentrated joints with different dip angle, different number under different stress conditions by PFC (Particle Flow Code) numerical simulation. Next, we analyzed mechanical property and fracture features of this rock mass. The following achievements have been obtained through this research. (1) When dip angle of joints is $15^{\circ}$ and $30^{\circ}$, with the increase of joints number, peak strength of rock mass has not changed much. But when dip angle increase to $45^{\circ}$, especially increase to $60^{\circ}$ and $75^{\circ}$, peak strength of rock mass decreased obviously with the increase of joints number. (2) With the increase of confining stress, peak strengths of all rock mass have different degree of improvement, especially the rock mass with dip angle of $75^{\circ}$. (3) Under the condition of no confining stress, dip angle of joints is low and joint number is small, existence of joints has little influence on fracture mode of rock mass, but when joints number increase to 5, tensile deformation firstly happened at joints zone and further resulted in tension fracture of the whole rock mass. When dip angle of joints increases to $45^{\circ}$, fracture presented as shear along joints, and with increase of joints number, strength of rock mass is weakened caused by shear-tension fracture zone along joints. When dip angle of joints increases to $60^{\circ}$ and $75^{\circ}$, deformation and fracture model presented as tension fracture zone along concentrated joints. (4) Influence of increase of confining stress on fracture modes is to weaken joints' control function and to reduce the width of fracture zone. Furthermore, increase of confining stress translated deformation mode from tension to shear.

보안등의 감전 위험성에 관한 실태조사 (A Research on the Actual Conditions of the Electric Shock Hazard of a Guard Lamp)

  • 장태준;정연하;노영수;곽희로;최충석
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.32-38
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    • 2005
  • 본 논문에서는 보안등의 감전 위험성의 실태를 파악하기 위하여 세 지역에서 보안등을 조사하였다. 취득된 데이터에 의거하여 보안등의 실태를 감전 위험성 측면에서 정밀하게 분석하였다. 조사결과, 많은 보안등은 규정이 미비하여 올바르게 설치되어 있지 않기 때문에 감전의 위험성이 증가되는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 따라서 감전 예방의 관점에서 보안등 시설의 설치 및 관리에 대한 구체적인 규정을 설정하는 것이 필요하다.