• 제목/요약/키워드: Hazard Rate

검색결과 737건 처리시간 0.024초

A Study on the Conditional Survival Function with Random Censored Data

  • Lee, Won-Kee;Song, Myung-Unn
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.405-411
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    • 2004
  • In the analysis of cancer data, it is important to make inferences of survival function and to assess the effects of covariates. Cox's proportional hazard model(PHM) and Beran's nonparametric method are generally used to estimate the survival function with covariates. We adjusted the incomplete survival time using the Buckley and James's(1979) pseudo random variables, and then proposed the estimator for the conditional survival function. Also, we carried out the simulation studies to compare the performances of the proposed method.

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한반도 주요 지체구조구별 지진학적 특성 (Seismic characteristics of Tectonic Provinces of The Korean Peninsula)

  • 이기화
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 1999년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집 Proceedings of EESK Conference-Fall
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 1999
  • Seismicity of the Korean Peninsula shows intraplate seismicity that has irregular pattern in both time and space. Seismic data of the Korean peninsula consists of historical earthquakes and instrumental earthquakes. In this study we devide these data into complete part and incomplete part and considering earthquake size uncertainty estimate seismic hazard parameters - activity rate λ, b value of Gutenberg-Richter relation and maximum possible earthquake IMAX by statistical method in each major tectonic provinces. These estimated values are expected to be important input parameters in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and evaluation of design earthquake.

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국민기초생활보장제도 수급탈출의 기간의존성 (Duration Dependence in the Exit Rate from National Basic Livelihood Protection Program)

  • 이원진
    • 한국사회복지학
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    • 제63권4호
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    • pp.83-107
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    • 2011
  • 본 연구는 한국복지패널 1~4차년도 조사 자료를 활용하여 국민기초생활보장제도 수급탈출의 기간의존성을 분석하였다. 수급기간이 길어질수록 수급탈출률이 낮아지는 기간의존성의 존재는 복지의존을 시사하는 중요한 증거가 될 수 있다. 실증적 분석 결과, 성, 연령, 교육수준, 결혼지위, 건강상태, 취업 형태 등의 관찰된 특성을 통제한 후에도 수급기간이 길어질수록 수급탈출률이 낮아지는 현상이 관찰되지만, 관찰되지 않은 이질성을 통제하면 수급기간의 영향이 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과에 따르면, 수급기간이 길어질수록 수급탈출률이 낮아지는 현상의 상당부분은 수급자 집단의 이질성으로 인한 허위관계이고 수급탈출의 기간의존성은 크지 않은 것으로 판단된다.

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수송기관용 오일의 화재위험성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Fire Hazard of Transportation Oil)

  • 박영주;황미정;이해평;이승철;이창현
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.114-120
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to conduct the study of the combustion and thermal characteristics through transportation oil for the analysis of fire hazard. Transportation oil breaks down into fuels such as diesel for civilian demands, gasoline, DF1(diesel for military), high sulfur diesel(for marine), kerosene and JP1(for aviation), and lubricants like brake fluid, power steering oil, engine oil, and automatic and manual transmission oil. The experiments of flash point, ignition point, flame duration time, heat release rate were carried out using TAG closed cup flash point tester(AFP761), Cleveland open cup auto flash point analyzer(AFP762), KRS-RG-9000 and Dual cone calorimeter. As a result, the fuel's ignition points were lower than lubricants, especially that of gasoline was not conducted as it has below zero one. Gasoline has the highest ignition point of about $600^{\circ}C$, while the other fuels showed $400{\sim}465^{\circ}C$. For flame duration time, lubricants had over 300 seconds, but fuels had less than 300 seconds except high sulfur diesel(350 seconds). Total heat release rate ranged $287{\sim}462kW/m^2$ for lubricants and gasoline showed the highest total heat release rate, $652kW/m^2$.

대구, 경북지역 학령전기 아동의 사고 발생 현황 (Non-Fatal Injuries among Preschool Children in Daegu and Kyungpook)

  • 허윤정;이상원;박정한;박순우
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • 제37권3호
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    • pp.274-281
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    • 2004
  • Objectives : This study was performed to investigate the injury rates and risk factors for preschool children in Daegu city and Kyungpook province. Method : A questionnaire survey about medically attended injuries during the preschool period was performed in nine primary schools located in Daegu city, Pohang city and Goryung County. The overall injury rate was estimated using person-year. The causes and patterns of the injuries, and their risk factors were examined. Result : A total of 469 medically attended injuries were reported in 330 of the 959 study subjects during the preschool period. The overall annual injury rate was 7.5 per 100 children. The injury rate increased sharply during the period from infant (2.4) to 1 year of age (7.5), and the peak injury rate (9.2) was reported for 5 year olds. The most common causes of injuries were falling (36.0%), followed by being struck by an object (23.7%), and traffic accidents (14.1%). Among the traffic accidents, 72.8% occurred while playing on the road, riding a bicycle or roller-skating. A proportional hazard model showed that males (hazard ratio=1.49, p<0.001 compared with female) and the mother's higher education level (hazard ratio of college or higher= 1.51, p=0.013; high school=1.32, p=0.085 compared with those of middle school or lower) were significant risk factors of childhood injury. Conclusion : The results of this study suggested that efforts for children's safety should be made, especially from the toddler stage, and in male children. To develop a more specific childhood injury prevention program, a surveillance system for injuries should be established. Further study of the relationship between mother's occupation and injury rates is also needed.

디피리다몰 부하 심근관류 SPECT의 장기예후 예측능 (Long-term Prognostic Value of Dipyridamole Stress Myocardial SPECT)

  • 이동수;천기정;장명진;강원준;정준기;이명묵;이명철;강위창;이영조
    • 대한핵의학회지
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.39-54
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    • 2000
  • 목적: 디피리다몰 부하 심근 관류 SPECT 를 관동맥질환 환자의 예후 예측에 이용하여 장기간 추적하였을 때 정상 심근 SPECT 소견의 비례위험도가 달라지는지를 조사하여 정상 SPECT로 언제까지 예후가 양호하다고 예측할 수 있는지 보았다. 대상 및 방법: 관동맥질환이 의심되어 심근 관류 SPECT를 시행한 환자 1,169명을 대상으로 심장원인 사망이나 심근 경색이 발생한 중한 사건과 관동맥우회로술이나 관동맥성형술을 시행한 경한 사건을 합한 전체 심장사건의 발생률과 예측성능을 분석하였다. 비례위험도의 시간의존성을 분석하는 통계적 방법을 개발하고 적용하여 추적기간에 따른 예측도 차이를 조사하였다. 결과: 다변량 Cox 비례위험도 모델에서 전체 심장 사건을 예측하는데 심근 관류 SPECT의 가역성관류 감소가 독립적인 예후 예측 성능을 보였으며 관동맥조영술 소견에 더하여 부가효용을 나타냈다. 심근 SPECT의 가역성관류감소는 중한 사건을 예측하는 독립적 예측성능을 보였으나 관동맥조영술에 더하여 부가효용을 나타내지는 않았다. SPECT 소견의 비례위험도는 추적기간이 경과하면서 증가하였다. 전체 심장사건을 예측하는 비례위험도가 심근 SPECT 정상군에서 추적기간 말기에 유의하게 달라졌으며(p<0.001) 정상심근 SPECT의 위험률의 변이점은 4.4년이었다. 결론: 심근 SPECT에 나타난 가역성 관류 감소는 전체심장 사건을 예측하는 독립적이고 부가적인 성능을 보였다. 심근 관류 SPECT에서 정상일 때 장기추적 중 4.4년 후에는 예후 예측 위험도가 유의하게 증가하였다.

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한반도의 태풍 동반 강우의 통계적 모형 (Statistical Model for Typhoon-Induced Rainfall around Korean Peninsular)

  • 구혜윤;이승수;이영규
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제8권5호
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    • pp.45-51
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    • 2008
  • 강풍과 강한 동반 강우로 인한 최근의 태풍 피해 증가로 인하여 태풍의 영향을 예측하고 분석하는 연구의 필요성이 증가하고 있다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 태풍에 동반되는 강우에 초점을 맞추어 태풍 동반 강우에 영향을 끼치는 두 가지의 요인을 선택한 후 태풍 이동 경로에 대한 기상관측지점의 상대각도를 이용하여 2가지의 태풍 동반 강우의 통계적 모형을 제안하였다. 또한 본 연구에서 제안한 통계적 모형의 유효성 증명 및 두 모형에의 적용에 대한 결과의 비교를 위하여 2007년에 우리나라에 영향을 끼친 태풍 나리에 의한 동반 강우의 통계적 예측을 수행하였으며, 그 결과 본 논문에서 제안하는 모형을 이용하여 어느 정도 태풍 동반 강우의 예측이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

건축공사 안전관리비 비율 산정 모형에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Estimating Rate of Safety Management Cost in Building Work)

  • 손기상;갈원모;양학수
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제22권5호
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2007
  • Standard safety management costs can not be applied to each site with same rate, it is very difficult, because it depends on the experience, work method, work kind, work progress schedule, and hazard level of each construction company. Therefore, this study is to find out hazard level of each work kinds through questionnaire and interview and investigate analyze the status which standard safety management costs have been used. Also, this study is to show reasonable rates of standard safety management costs in construction industry and to set up countermeasures against those problem after reviewing its status in korea with in Japan and Europe. This study is to investigate eleven project kinds of domestic system, first, and to investigate eleven items of apartment bldg, office. Also this study is to investigate and analyze performed costs of presently processing worker finished work so that it shows a new reasonable rate against standard safety management costs in construction industry, in order to make basical data and material to be systemized.

잠재적 화재.폭발 위험 지역 작업용 녹전환형 중방식 코팅제의 특성에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Properties of the Heavy Duty Rust-Converting Agent used in the Potential Hazard Areas of Fire & Explosion)

  • 강영구
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.102-111
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    • 1998
  • This study was concerned with the development of a heavy duty rust-converting agent, the function of which is to form metal complex coatings, containing vinyl halide-acrylic terpolymer emulsion, defoamer, emulsifying agent, glass flakes, chelating agent such as gallotannic acid, gallic acid, and pyrogallic acid, and other additives. The resulted emulsion products(Sample No.1~No.5) were characterized through test either in the forms of emulsions, which include Viscosity, Penetration rate, Acidity and Film drying rate test, or in the forms of coated layer on rusty steel substrates by FT-IR, which include hardness, gloss, salt spray, adhesion and flame retardant test. The test results are as follows ; Penetration rate(0.1~0.4 mm/min), Solid content(70%), Acidity (pH 1.8~2.0), Specific gravity(1.30~1.35), Film drying rate(108min, RH 40% ; 150min, RH 80%), Gloss(83~92, incident angle $60^{\circ}$; 88~97, incident angle $85^{\circ}$), Pencil hardness(4H~5H), Adhesion (100/100), Salt spray test(>720Hr), LOI(%) value(38%), Vertical burning test(UL 94-v-l). According to the various performance of specimens show above, the evaluation of the availability of this heavy duty rust-converting agent can be concluded that all the samples(No.1~No.5) are capable of being used in the field of chemical plant and in the hazard areas of fire and explosion potential. It was observed that the properties of sample No.2, especially gloss and hardness, were much better than that of the other samples.

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Empirical Bayes Nonparametric Estimation with Beta Processes Based on Censored Observations

  • Hong, Jee-Chang;Kim, Yongdai;Inha Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.481-498
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    • 2001
  • Empirical Bayes procedure of nonparametric estiamtion of cumulative hazard rates based on censored data is considered using the beta process priors of Hjort(1990). Beta process priors with unknown parameters are used for cumulative hazard rates. Empirical Bayes estimators are suggested and asymptotic optimality is proved. Our result generalizes that of Susarla and Van Ryzin(1978) in the sensor that (i) the cumulative hazard rate induced by a Dirichlet process is a beta process, (ii) our empirical Bayes estimator does not depend on the censoring distribution while that of Susarla and Van Ryzin(1978) does, (iii) a class of estimators of the hyperprameters is suggested in the prior distribution which is assumed known in advance in Susarla and Van Ryzin(1978). This extension makes the proposed empirical Bayes procedure more applicable to real dta sets.

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