• Title/Summary/Keyword: Hazard Model

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A Study on Comparative Evaluation of Application of Software Reliability Model Dependent on Various Hazard Functions (다양한 위험함수에 의존한 소프트웨어 신뢰모형의 적용에 대한 비교 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Yang, Tae-Jin
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.800-806
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    • 2018
  • Software efficiency is the probability of failure free use in operating environments, and is the most fundamental factor affecting software system stability. The malfunction of the computer system used in the information technology field may cause a significant loss in the related industry. Therefore, in this study, we analyze the attributes of software reliability models that depend on various hazard functions based on finite fault NHPP model with software failure time data. The hazard function pattern of proposed model is constant for the Goel-Okumoto model, and the Minimax and Rayleigh models follow the incremental pattern, but the hazard function increase value of the Minimax model is smaller than that of the Rayleigh model and the Goel-Okumoto model. Also, the Minimax model was relatively efficient because the true value error of the mean value function m(t) and the mean square error (MSE) of the Minimax model were smaller than those of the Rayleigh and Goel-Okumoto models. The results of this study are expected to be useful for software developers as basic information about the hazard function.

Assessing synoptic wind hazard in Australia utilising climate-simulated wind speeds

  • Sanabria, L.A.;Cechet, R.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2012
  • Severe wind is one of the major natural hazards in Australia. The component contributors to economic loss in Australia with regards to severe wind are tropical cyclones, thunderstorms and subtropical (synoptic) storms. Geoscience Australia's Risk and Impact Analysis Group (RIAG) is developing mathematical models to study a number of natural hazards including wind hazard. This paper discusses wind hazard under current and future climate conditions using RIAG's synoptic wind hazard model. This model can be used in non-cyclonic regions of Australia (Region A in the Australian-New Zealand Wind Loading Standard; AS/NZS 1170.2:2011) where the wind hazard is dominated by synoptic and thunderstorm gust winds.

Comparison of tropical cyclone wind field models and their influence on estimated wind hazard

  • Gu, J.Y.;Sheng, C.;Hong, H.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.321-334
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    • 2020
  • Engineering type tropical cyclone (TC) wind field models are used to estimate TC wind hazard. Some of the models are well-calibrated using observation data, while others are not extensively compared and verified. They are all proxies to the real TC wind fields. The computational effort for their use differs. In the present study, a comparison of the predicted wind fields is presented by considering three commonly used models: the gradient wind field model, slab-resolving model, and a linear height-resolving model. These models essentially predict the horizontal wind speed at a different height. The gradient wind field model and linear height-resolving model are simple to use while the nonlinear slab-resolving model is more compute-intensive. A set of factors is estimated and recommended such that the estimated TC wind hazard by using these models becomes more consistent. The use of the models, including the developed set of factors, for estimating TC wind hazard over-water and over-land is presented by considering the historical tracks for a few sites. It is shown that the annual maximum TC wind speed can be adequately modelled by the generalized extreme value distribution.

A Study on the Application of GIS for Analysis of Subsidence Hazard (지반침하 피해도 분석을 위한 GIS 활용에 관한 연구)

  • 권광수;유명환;박형동
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.557-563
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    • 2000
  • Subsidence hazard has never been considered seriously until recent yews in Korea, although its socioeconomic impact on Korea becomes more and more enormous. There have been a few studies for the application of GIS analysis technique to the prediction of subsidence hazard. For GIS analysis, several factors, which are represented by coverage, are considered and selected for building a GIS model. Numerical method was used to quantify the importance of each factor in GIS model and the result from numerical modeling using FLAC was compared with that from previous research based on empirical methods. Analysis in 3-D needs more computer resources (i.e. memory). Therefore that in 2.5-D was considered to overcome the problem. Not only maximum vertical subsidence but also maximum horizontal strain and maximum slope have been considered for the assessment of subsidence hazard. The model can be easily modified for the purpose of applications in any subsidence area, especially cavern or abandoned mines under thick soil layer.

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Decision on Quality Investment Level Under Moral Hazard Environment

  • Zhang, Cui-Hua;Yu, Hai-Bin
    • International Journal of Quality Innovation
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.20-31
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    • 2007
  • Moral hazard and adverse selection often exist in asymmetric information environment. In this paper, quality investment decision problem is studied under moral hazard. A basic model for quality investment level decision is developed with the supplier as a principal and the buyer as an agent. And then we regard the supplier and the buyer's rational limitations to set up a model when the buyer's quality evaluation and processing activities are hidden. The model is optimized and the results under different backgrounds are discussed and compared. Results show that the buyer's quality evaluation level and processing level are mostly influenced by the supplier's quality assurance payment. Both the supplier and the buyer choose different quality investment levels under moral hazard because of the supplier's payment to the buyer in case of internal failure and external failure.

Assessment of Landfill Hazard Using the Value-Structured Approach (가치구조화기법에 의한 매립지 유해성 등급화)

  • Hong, Sang-Pyo;Kim, Jung-Wuk
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.93-103
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    • 1997
  • LHR(Landfill Site Hazard Ranking Model) was developed for ranking the relative hazard of landfill sites by using the method of value-structured approach. LHR consists of combining a multiattribute decision-making method with a Qualitative risk assessment approach. A pairwise com parisian method was applied to determine weights of landfill site factors related. To determine the hazard of landfill site, hydrogeological factors, waste characteristics factors and receptors factors were evaluated by LHR. LHR can help decision-makers prioritization of remediation of landfill sites through the relatively convenient and concise evaluation method of landfill site features related. LHR focuses mainly on pathways of groundwater and surfacewater for evaluating landfill hazard to receptors including humans. To validiate the applicability of LHR, Nanjido Landfill site, Metropolitan Landfill site, and Hwasung Landfill site were evaluated.

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CURRENT STATUS AND IMPORTANT ISSUES ON SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION METHODOLOGY IN JAPAN

  • Ebisawa, Katsumi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.1223-1234
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    • 2009
  • The outlines of seismic PSA implementation standards and seismic hazard evaluation procedure were shown. An overview of the cause investigation of seismic motion amplification on the Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki (NCO) earthquake was also shown. Then, the contents for improving the seismic hazard evaluation methodology based on the lessons learned from the NCO earthquake were described. (1) It is very important to recognize the effectiveness of a fault model on the detail seismic hazard evaluation for the near seismic source through the cause investigation of the NCO earthquake. (2) In order to perform and proceed with a seismic hazard evaluation, the Japan Nuclear Energy Safety Organization has proposed the framework of the open deliberation rule regarding the treatment of uncertainty which was made so as to be able to utilize a logic tree. (3) The b-value evaluation on the "Stress concentrating zone," which is a high seismic activity around the NCO hypocenter area, should be modified based on the Gutenberg-Richter equation.

A Development of Software (KFSA-I) for Fire Hazard Assessments in the Buildings (건물의 화재위험성 평가 프로그램(KESA-I)개발)

  • 이수경;이상준;김종훈
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.60-65
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    • 2002
  • The hazard assessment in which the potential hazard factors in the buildings are investigated and the scale of the hazard is analysed should be performed first in order to prevent personal and material damages due to building fire. In this study, the building fire hazard are assessed using 822-item checklist, for the qualitative evaluation of which the main factors are classified into 10 items, yielding 100 scale points with some weighting. It is shown that present model is applicable for the assessment model by actual assessment of existing building. Also the checklist is prepared in itemized questionnaire from easy assessment of building fire hazard. Therefore, the present model will be helpful for those working in fire prevention, who are suffering from the lack of manifest evaluation model for the fire prevention assessment so far in Korea.

Further Results on Piecewise Constant Hazard Functions in Aalen's Additive Risk Model

  • Uhm, Dai-Ho;Jun, Sung-Hae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.403-413
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    • 2012
  • The modifications suggested in Uhm et al. (2011) are studied using a partly parametric version of Aalen's additive risk model. A follow-up time period is partitioned into intervals, and hazard functions are estimated as a piecewise constant in each interval. A maximum likelihood estimator by iteratively reweighted least squares and variance estimates are suggested based on the model as well as evaluated by simulations using mean square error and a coverage probability, respectively. In conclusion the modifications are needed when there are a small number of uncensored deaths in an interval to estimate the piecewise constant hazard function.

Estimation of hazard function and hazard change-point for the rectal cancer data (직장암 데이터에 대한 위험률 함수 추정 및 위험률 변화점 추정)

  • Lee, Sieun;Shim, Byoung Yong;Kim, Jaehee
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1225-1238
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    • 2015
  • In this research, we fit various survival models and conduct tests and estimation for the hazard change-point with the rectal cancer data. By the log-rank tests, at significance level ${\alpha}=0.10$, survival functions are significantly different according to the uniporter of glucose (GLUT1), clinical stage (cstage) and pathologic stage (ypstage). From the Cox proportional hazard model, the most significant covariates are GLUT1 and ypstage. Assuming that the rectal cancer data follows the exponential distribution, we estimate one hazard change-point using Matthews and Farewell (1982), Henderson (1990) and Loader (1991) methods.