• Title/Summary/Keyword: Grey Theory

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Probabilistic analysis of tunnel collapse: Bayesian method for detecting change points

  • Zhou, Binghua;Xue, Yiguo;Li, Shucai;Qiu, Daohong;Tao, Yufan;Zhang, Kai;Zhang, Xueliang;Xia, Teng
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.291-303
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    • 2020
  • The deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel manifests due to the stress redistribution within the surrounding rock. By observing the deformation of the surrounding rock, we can not only determine the stability of the surrounding rock and supporting structure but also predict the future state of the surrounding rock. In this paper, we used grey system theory to analyse the factors that affect the deformation of the rock surrounding a tunnel. The results show that the 5 main influencing factors are longitudinal wave velocity, tunnel burial depth, groundwater development, surrounding rock support type and construction management level. Furthermore, we used seismic prospecting data, preliminary survey data and excavated section monitoring data to establish a neural network learning model to predict the total amount of deformation of the surrounding rock during tunnel collapse. Subsequently, the probability of a change in deformation in each predicted section was obtained by using a Bayesian method for detecting change points. Finally, through an analysis of the distribution of the change probability and a comparison with the actual situation, we deduced the survey mark at which collapse would most likely occur. Surface collapse suddenly occurred when the tunnel was excavated to this predicted distance. This work further proved that the Bayesian method can accurately detect change points for risk evaluation, enhancing the accuracy of tunnel collapse forecasting. This research provides a reference and a guide for future research on the probability analysis of tunnel collapse.

A Study on Properites of PV Solar cell AZO thin films post-annealing by RTP technique (RTP 공정을 통한 태양전지용 AZO 박막의 후열처리 특성연구)

  • Yang, Hyeon-Hun;Kim, Han-Wool;Han, Chang-Jun;So, Soon-Youl;Park, Gye-Choon;Lee, Jin;Chung, Hea-Deok;Lee, Suk-Ho;Back, Su-Ung;Na, Kil-Ju;Jeong, Woon-Jo
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.127.1-127.1
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, ZnO:Al thin films with c-axis preferred orientation were prepared on Soda lime glass substrates by RF magnetron sputtering technique. AZO thin film were prepared in order to clarify optimum conditions for growth of the thin film depending upon process, and then by changing a number of deposition conditions and substrate temperature conditions variously, structural and electrical characteristics were measured. For the manufacture of the AZO were vapor-deposited in the named order. It is well-known that post-annealing is an important method to improve crystal quality. For the annealing process, the dislocation nd other defects arise in the material and adsorption/decomposition occurs. The XRD patterns of the AZO films deposited with grey theory prediction design, annealed in a vacuum ambient($2.0{\times}10-3$Torr)at temperatures of 200, 300, 400 and $500^{\circ}C$ for a period of 30min. The diffraction patterns of all the films show the AZO films had a hexagonal wurtzite structure with a preferential orientation along the c-axis perpendicular to the substrate surface. As can be seen, the (002)peak intensities of the AZO films became more intense and sharper when the annealing temperature increased. On the other hand, When the annealing temperature was $500^{\circ}C$ the peak intensity decreased. The surface morphologies and surface toughness of films were examined by atomic force microscopy(AFM, XE-100, PSIA). Electrical resistivity, Gall mobility and carrier concentration were measured by Hall effect measuring system (HL5500PC, Accent optical Technology, USA). The optical absorption spectra of films in the ultraviolet-visibleinfrared( UV-Vis-IR) region were recorder by the UV spectrophotometer(U-3501, Hitachi, Japan). The resistivity, carrier concentration, and Hall mobility of ZnS deposited on glass substrate as a function of post-annealing.

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Individual Thinking Style leads its Emotional Perception: Development of Web-style Design Evaluation Model and Recommendation Algorithm Depending on Consumer Regulatory Focus (사고가 시각을 바꾼다: 조절 초점에 따른 소비자 감성 기반 웹 스타일 평가 모형 및 추천 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Keon-Woo;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.171-196
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    • 2018
  • With the development of the web, two-way communication and evaluation became possible and marketing paradigms shifted. In order to meet the needs of consumers, web design trends are continuously responding to consumer feedback. As the web becomes more and more important, both academics and businesses are studying consumer emotions and satisfaction on the web. However, some consumer characteristics are not well considered. Demographic characteristics such as age and sex have been studied extensively, but few studies consider psychological characteristics such as regulatory focus (i.e., emotional regulation). In this study, we analyze the effect of web style on consumer emotion. Many studies analyze the relationship between the web and regulatory focus, but most concentrate on the purpose of web use, particularly motivation and information search, rather than on web style and design. The web communicates with users through visual elements. Because the human brain is influenced by all five senses, both design factors and emotional responses are important in the web environment. Therefore, in this study, we examine the relationship between consumer emotion and satisfaction and web style and design. Previous studies have considered the effects of web layout, structure, and color on emotions. In this study, however, we excluded these web components, in contrast to earlier studies, and analyzed the relationship between consumer satisfaction and emotional indexes of web-style only. To perform this analysis, we collected consumer surveys presenting 40 web style themes to 204 consumers. Each consumer evaluated four themes. The emotional adjectives evaluated by consumers were composed of 18 contrast pairs, and the upper emotional indexes were extracted through factor analysis. The emotional indexes were 'softness,' 'modernity,' 'clearness,' and 'jam.' Hypotheses were established based on the assumption that emotional indexes have different effects on consumer satisfaction. After the analysis, hypotheses 1, 2, and 3 were accepted and hypothesis 4 was rejected. While hypothesis 4 was rejected, its effect on consumer satisfaction was negative, not positive. This means that emotional indexes such as 'softness,' 'modernity,' and 'clearness' have a positive effect on consumer satisfaction. In other words, consumers prefer emotions that are soft, emotional, natural, rounded, dynamic, modern, elaborate, unique, bright, pure, and clear. 'Jam' has a negative effect on consumer satisfaction. It means, consumer prefer the emotion which is empty, plain, and simple. Regulatory focus shows differences in motivation and propensity in various domains. It is important to consider organizational behavior and decision making according to the regulatory focus tendency, and it affects not only political, cultural, ethical judgments and behavior but also broad psychological problems. Regulatory focus also differs from emotional response. Promotion focus responds more strongly to positive emotional responses. On the other hand, prevention focus has a strong response to negative emotions. Web style is a type of service, and consumer satisfaction is affected not only by cognitive evaluation but also by emotion. This emotional response depends on whether the consumer will benefit or harm himself. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm the difference of the consumer's emotional response according to the regulatory focus which is one of the characteristics and viewpoint of the consumers about the web style. After MMR analysis result, hypothesis 5.3 was accepted, and hypothesis 5.4 was rejected. But hypothesis 5.4 supported in the opposite direction to the hypothesis. After validation, we confirmed the mechanism of emotional response according to the tendency of regulatory focus. Using the results, we developed the structure of web-style recommendation system and recommend methods through regulatory focus. We classified the regulatory focus group in to three categories that promotion, grey, prevention. Then, we suggest web-style recommend method along the group. If we further develop this study, we expect that the existing regulatory focus theory can be extended not only to the motivational part but also to the emotional behavioral response according to the regulatory focus tendency. Moreover, we believe that it is possible to recommend web-style according to regulatory focus and emotional desire which consumers most prefer.