• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.137-138
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• 2012

Domestic construction materials market was about 65 trillion won and it occupied 45% level of total construction cost by 2007. In addition, due to the recent rapid rise of crude oil and iron ore price, fluctuation of raw material cost has a great influence to the cost of construction industry. This means that smooth performance is closely related to construction materials. And among them, because of high putting rate of metal materials, it can be seen that the fluctuation of metal material prices is an important variables. So in this study, for the pre-study to analyze the impact of metallic material prices to construction cost, the researcher analyzed a causal relationship between metal material prices and construction cost.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2012.04a
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• pp.353-370
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• 2012

이 논문은 기존의 포트폴리오와 관련된 모형에 경기변동(business cycle)과 관련된 변수들을 포함하였을 경우 경기변동이 개인투자자들의 현금 및 주식보유를 통한 자본이득 극대화와 어떤 관련성이 있는지와 관련된 것이다. 기존 문헌들을 살펴보면, 개인투자자들은 경기호황기에는 모멘텀 투자와 소형주와 성장주 등에 포트폴리오를 분산투자하지만 경기가 침체기(recession)에 들어설 경우 수익률이 급등락하는 특성을 지니는 소형주(small cap)에 집중적인 투자를 하는 성향을 나타내고 있다. 한편 이 논문의 분석결과에 따르면, 경기안정과 금리안정정책, 물가안정 등은 서로 상충관계(trade-off)에 놓여 있음에도 불구하고 코스피수익률과 코스닥수익률에 모두 향후 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다. 이는 현재까지의 정책조합(policy mix)보다 더 정교하고 타이밍을 잘 포착하지 않으면 정책실패에 따른 경기와 물가불안이 동시에 나타나는 스태그 플레이션(stagflation)으로 이어질 수 있음으로 정책집행의 효율성이 어느 때보다도 중요해 질 것으로 보인다.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.04a
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• pp.315-331
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• 2008

미국 센서스 뷰로 데이터에 의하여 2차대전 후 민주당정부와 공화당정부의 실질 세전 소득증가율의 차이를 살펴볼 때 민주당정부 기간동안에 계층간의 소득불균형이 시정되면서 저소득계층의 소득증가율이 상대적으로 더 높았음을 알 수 있다. 반면에 공화당정부 기간동안에는 소득불균형이 심화되면서 저소득계층보다 고소득계층의 소득증가율이 더 높았다. 소득계층에서 하위 20%의 계층은 공화당정부의 기간동안에 비하여 민주당정부의 기간에 4배의 높은 소득증가율을 가졌다. 이는 양 정부별 실업률 차이에서 비롯되는 데 민주당정부의 기간 동안에 평균 30% 낮았으며 GDP성장률은 평균 30% 높았음에도 영향을 받은 것으로 판단된다. 이러한 정부별 차이는 1980년대 이후 세후 소득증가율에서도 나타나고 있다. 한편, 실증분석 결과에 따르면 한국의 경우 미국에서와 같이 저소득계층이 고소득계층 보다 거시경제정책에 따른 영향을 더 많이 받고 있음을 알 수 있었으며, 특히 신정부에서는 이전보다 적극적인 통화정책을 적절한 타이밍(timing)으로 실시하여야 할 필요성이 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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• 2017.11a
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• pp.189-200
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• 2017

본 연구는 국내 지역R&D투자와 지역경제지표 간의 관계를 파악하기 위한 것이다. 연구 방법은 패널VECM을 사용하여 1995~2014년 국내 17개 시 도별 정부 및 민간R&D투자, 고정자본과 고용, 지역내총생산의 상호 간 장 단기 인과관계를 도출하였다. 분석결과, 단기적으로 GRDP의 원인변수는 고정자본, 고용, 그리고 민간R&D투자로 나타났다. 고정자본의 원인변수는 고용, 민간R&D투자로 나타났으며, 고용의 원인변수로는 GRDP와 고정자본으로 나타났다. 장기적으로 고용, 고정자본, 정부R&D투자가 다른 변수들의 장기균형관계로부터 각각 인과관계를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 결과를 바탕으로 목적과 대상 그리고 시간의 흐름에 따라 지역R&D투자의 직 간접적 효과를 함께 고려할 수 있는 추가적인 분석이 요구된다.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.22
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• pp.1-23
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• 2007

This paper investigates the relationships between exports, firm size, and firm dynamics. It is based on a longitudinal data covering listed firms in the Korean manufacturing industry. We found the stylized fact that the probability that a firm is exporter increases with firm size. A regression model for the determinant of export/sales ratio including dynamic adjustment process is tested on a cross-section sample for the year 2001. Empirical findings suggest that there is a positive and inversely U-shaped relationship between firm size and export/sales ratio, just for basic material and capital good industry. Except for firm size, the hypotheses concerning human capital intensity, physical capital intensity, R&D intensity, and patent are rejected. Using Granger causality test, we found that the rate of growth of total sales influences the change of the export/sales ratio with time lag for medium-sized firms. Finally, some policy implications are presented.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.45 no.2
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• pp.69-74
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the lead-lag relationship between the agricultural produce import price in Korea and the corresponding shipping freight rate. Since the Korean economy has pursued an export-driven growth strategy, mainly based on the manufacturing sector, the country has to depend on the vast majority of its agricultural produce consumption after import from foreign countries. Moreover, compared with other high-value products, transportation cost occupies a substantial share of the agricultural commodity price, resulting in changes in the shipping freight rate being a pivotal determinant of agricultural produce import. In this respect, this study explores the possible association between agricultural produce import in Korea and shipping freight rate and the lead-lag relationship. Using a monthly dataset of agricultural produce import prices and freight rates for Handysize and Panamax dry-bulkers for the period between January 2010 and November 2020, this study determines that the shipping freight rate, in general, leads the agricultural commodity price.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.117-139
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• 2020

This research analyzes the factors that affect the consumers' participation of the internet-only banks, and suggests effective financial sales strategies and methods to attract more users. Through prior research review and interviews with experts, the factors affecting the consumers to sign up for the internet banks are identified. The actual user data from the internet banks are used for the analysis, providing more systematic and credible results. The research shows that social media buzz positively affects the user growth, proving Granger Causality relation of increasing social media buzz on K Bank increases K Bank users. The research also shows that marketing activities noticeably impacts K Bank's positive user growth. On the other hand, the event of Kakao Bank's grand opening shows negative effect. The results from the research validates the need for periodical monitoring process of social media buzz. Moreover, the research proves that the integrated analysis of social media buzz and marketing effect is also essential.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.39-58
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• 2023

This study examined China's public and government agenda setting in response to the Shanghai lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It employed content analysis, correlation, and Granger's causality tests to analyze 1,717 Weibo posts published by the public and the Shanghai Municipal Government from March 12 to June 1, 2022. The results showed that (1) pandemic statistics were the central attribute in the government agenda, while civil life, community management, and government and policies were the central attributes in the public agenda; (2) the government's agenda unidirectionally influenced the public agenda in terms of government policy attributes; and (3) the government and public agendas reciprocally influenced each other in terms of economic attributes. This study contributed to the existing literature by examining agenda-setting dynamics in a city closure event during the COVID-19 epidemic. It also extended existing methods by modeling implicit relationships between attributes in the public and government agendas.

• Journal of Information Processing Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.76-84
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• 2024

This study constructed a VAR model with cotton futures and spot price data from April 30, 2009 to November 16, 2022, for empirical analysis utilizing the Granger causality test to analyze the dynamic relationship between cotton futures and spot market prices in China. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis showed that the cotton spot prices at flowering have a causal relationship with each other; in terms of mutual influence and impact, futures prices are higher than spot prices. Finally, it proposed countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of establishing a standardized cotton spot market, improving the laws and regulations of the cotton futures market and trading system, and optimizing the structure of investment subjects.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.4
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• pp.161-173
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• 2021

The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.