• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.43 no.6
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• pp.469-474
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• 2019

One of the world's major resources is crude oil, the most fundamental part of the industry. There is no place that does not use crude oil. Petroleum refining products and chemical production industrial products are produced through nearby petrochemical complexes and ports after importing crude oil. There would be a possible relationship among the petrochemical complexes and nearby regional ports working with liquid cargoes. To confirm these relations, Ulsan Port, Daesan Port, and Yeosu Gwangyang Port were selected for this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model using time series data was applied. A Unit Root Test was performed. The relationship was confirmed through the Granger and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.246-263
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• 2010

This study examines how the long-run relations between housing price and inflation in the United Sates have changed since the year of 2000. Johansen co-integration test, estimation of long-run equilibrium equation, and Granger causality tests are conducted, based on the VECM. Data covers the period from the first quarter of 1975 to the second quarter of 2010. I adopt the recursive estimation method in which the final period of the estimation is expanded by one quarter, starting from the first quarter of 2000. The empirical results are as follows: (1) In spite of the sharp increase of housing price, the long-run relationship of house prices and inflation has been remained stable until 2007, showing that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. (2) The housing price plunge since 1997 does not seem to be related to the restore of the long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation. (3) Granger causality test results support the hypothesis that inflation granger-causes housing prices with 10% significance level, but reject the hypothesis that housing price granger-causes inflation.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.55 no.3
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• pp.264-272
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• 2019

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between international oil price as a fuel cost in overseas fisheries and skipjack tuna price as a part of main products in overseas fisheries using monthly time series data from 2008 to 2017. The study also tried to analyze the change of fishing profits by fuel cost. For a time series analysis, this study conducted both the unit-root test for stability of data and the Johansen cointegration test for long-term equilibrium relations among variables. In addition, it used not only the Granger causality test to examine interactions among variables, but also the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model to estimate statistical impacts among variables used in the model. Results of this study are as follows. First, each data on variables was not found to be stationary from the ADF unit-root test and long-term equilibrium relations among variables were not found from a Johansen cointegration test. Second, the Granger causality test showed that the international oil prices would directly cause changes in skipjack tuna prices. Third, the VAR model indicated that the posterior t-2 period change of international oil price would have an statistically significant effect on changes of skipjack tuna prices. Finally, fishing profits from skipjack would be decreased by 0.06% if the fuel cost increases by 1%.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.109-114
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• 2019

The purpose of the study to evaluate the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) and tourism receipts (TR) to Sri Lanka's gross domestic product (GDP). This study employs time series annual data for the period from 1978 to 2016 and EViews 10 econometrics software was used for the time series data analysis. Unit root test was done on the variables and the method chosen was the Augmented Dicky - Fuller test. Co-integration analysis was used for the long run relationship and the Granger causality test was performed to investigate the causal relationship. Recently a more conducive environment has been established after the three decade long ethnic war came to an end. In this context, the Sri Lankan government has taken positive measures to attract foreign direct investment and boost tourism in the country. This study intends to evaluate the contribution of Sri Lanka, as these two factors are considered to be very effective at increasing the GDP of a country. The empirical study shows that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between the variable's TR and FDI to the GDP in the long run. Results of Granger causality test implied that the two-way causality promoted the economic growth of Sri Lanka.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.55-79
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• 2009

This papers studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between international trade and economic growth in China for the period of 1950-2007, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, VAR model, and VECM. The results of this study are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root test, I found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. Secondly, in the Granger Causality test, this papers shows that variable dlexp and dlinp influence on dlgdp and dlgdd, while bilateral causality relation between dlexp and dlgdp, dlexp and dlgdd for the whole period, for the whole period, pre-reform period and post-reform period. Thirdly, there is no cointegraion relation between lgdp(or dlgdp, lgdd, dlgdd) and lexp, linp for lgdd-limp in the whole period, and pre-reform period, while no cointegration relation for the post-reform period. Finally, in the impulse-response test, it was proved that lgdp represents (-) correlation with lexp for the whole period. Thorough the variance decomposition test, it was proved that linp(or dlinp) is the most affected variable of the each data and relation between linp(or dlinp) and lexp(or dlexp) has become bigger recently.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.119-132
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• 2020

In this paper we explore the two analyses to know the urbanization effect on trade. First, the granger causality test to examine the relationship between trade and urbanization. The Granger causality test is a statistical hypothesis test for determining whether one time series is useful for forecasting another. The results indicated that the existence of a bidirectional causality running from trade to urbanization when six lags were applied. When eight lags were applied, we found unidirectional causality running from urbanization to trade. Second, gravity models were used to investigate the urbanization effect on trade. The production cost and specification are affected by the economies of scale, and the economies of scale increased as the greater geographically agglomeration. However, the gravity model to explain the bilateral trade flows ignores the urbanization variables. Therefore we added the urbanization variable represented as the geographically agglomeration into gravity model. The results show that the degree of urbanization of both countries has statistically positive effect on trade (export and import) and the bigger coefficients of trade partner's urbanization. The reason is that the trade share of industrial supplies, intermediate goods and capital goods is much higher than finished consumer goods. The urbanization is more important the improved the efficiency of production than demand market.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.363-387
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• 2010

This papers studies the causalities and effects on the relationship between inbound tourism(TOU) and the production amount of service industry in China, using the unit root test, the Granger causality test, the cointegration test, and VECM. we take their natural logarithm and define them as TOU and SGDP: these represent the distributed variable based the lagged values of the number of international tourists by continent and real production amount in service industry of China, respectively. The results of empirical study of this papers are as follows: Firstly, in the unit root test, we found that each time series was unstable one that has unit root. This result made me use 1st differenced data for this empirical study. Secondly, in the Granger casuality test, the study results show that there is unilateral casuality relation between DLSGDP-$DLTOU_i$ except DLSGDP-DLTOUL model for the same time, while no casuality relation between DLTOU-DLSGDP for all models of China. Thirdly, there is cointegration relation between all models for the period of 1980-2008.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.329-347
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship between the exchange rate and economic growth, and to induce policy implications. In order to test whether time series data is stationary and the model is fitness or not, we put in operation unit root test, cointegration test. And we apply Granger causality based on an error correction model. The results indicate that uni-dierctional causality between exchange rate and economic growth is detected. Exchange rate impacts on economic growth, but economic growth don't impact on exchange rate. The analysis of impulse reaction function shows that the impulse of exchange rate impacts on Korean economic growth in negative direction. We can infer policy suggestion as follows: The fluctuation of exchange rate much affects economic growth, thus we must make a stable policy of exchange rate to continue economic growth.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.327-341
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• 2014

This study aims to analyze causality among Wando abalone producer prices by size using a vector autoregressive model to expiscate the leading-price of Wando abalone in various price classes by size per kg. This study, using an analytical approach, applies a unit-root test for stability of data, a Granger causality test to learn about interaction among price classes by size for Wando abalone, and a vector autoregressive model to estimate the statistical impact among t-1 variables used in the model. As a result of our leading-price analysis of Wando abalone producer prices by shell size using a VAR model, first, DF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the Wando abalone monthly price change rate by size differentiated by logarithm were stable. Second, the Granger causality relationship analysis showed that the price change rate for big size abalone weakly led the price change rate for the small and medium sizes of abalone. Third, the vector autoregressive model showed that three price change rates of t-1 period variables statistically, significantly impacted price change rates of own size and other sizes in t period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicated that the impulse responses of structural shocks for price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more powerful in its own size and in other sizes than shocks emanating from other sizes. Fifth, the variance decomposition analysis indicated that the price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more influential than the price change rates for medium and small size abalone.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.617-632
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• 2022

In recent years, environmental pollution and determining the main factors causing this pollution have become an important issue. This study investigates the relationship between the agricultural sector and environmental pollution in Azerbaijan for 1992-2018. The dependent variable in the study is the agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (CO₂ equivalent). Eight variables were selected as explanatory variables: four agricultural inputs and four agricultural macro indicators. Unit root tests, ARDL boundary test, FMOLS, DOLS and CCR long-term estimators, Granger causality analysis, and variance decomposition analyses were used to investigate the effect of these variables on agricultural emissions. The results show that chemical fertilizer consumption, livestock number, and pesticide use positively and statistically significantly affect agricultural emissions from agricultural input variables. In contrast, agricultural energy consumption has a negative and significant effect. From agricultural macro indicator variables, it was found that the crop and animal production index had a positive and significant effect on agricultural emissions. According to the Granger causality test results, it was concluded that there are a causality relationship from chemical fertilizer consumption, livestock number, crop and livestock production index variables towards agricultural emissions. Considering all the results obtained, it is seen that the variables that have the most effect on the increase in agricultural emissions in Azerbaijan are the number of livestock, the consumption of chemical fertilizers, and the use of pesticides, respectively. The results from the research will contribute to the information on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and will play an enlightening role for policymakers and the general public.