• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
• /
• v.49 no.2
• /
• pp.21-35
• /
• 2018

Squid is a popular seafood in Korea. However, since the 2000s, the squid production has been declining. The unstable supply of the squid products may cause price fluctuations of fresh and chilled squid. These price fluctuations may be relatively more severe than them of other commodities, because the fresh and chilled squid can not be stored for a long period of time. Thus, this study analyzes the structural characteristics of price volatility and price asymmetry of fresh squid based on off-diagonal GARCH model. Data used to analysis of this study are daily wholesale and retail prices of fresh squid from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016 provided in the KAMIS. As theoretical approaches of this study, first of all, the stability of the time series is confirmed by the unit root test. Secondly, the causality between distribution channels is checked by the Granger causality test. Thirdly, the VAR model and the off-diagonal GARCH model are adopted to estimate asymmetry effect and price volatility spillover between distribution channels. Finally, the stability of the model is confirmed by multivariate Q-statistic and ARCH-LM test. In conclusion, fresh squid is found to have shock and volatility spillover between wholesale and retail prices as well as its own price. Also, volatility asymmetry effect is shown in own wholesale or retail price of fresh squid. Finally, this study shows that the decrease in the fresh squid retail price of t-1 period than the increase in the t-1 period has a greater impact on the volatility of the fresh squid wholesale price in t period.

• Ocean and Polar Research
• /
• v.40 no.4
• /
• pp.271-280
• /
• 2018

The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth, and to derive policy implications from the results. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short term, long term, and strong causality factors pertaining to the relationship between oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth in Korea using time-series techniques and annual data for the 1984-2016 period. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are presented. The results show that bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and oil-tanker accidents, between economic growth and oil consumption, and between oil-tanker accidents and economic growth. The study shows that oil was used as a core energy source during the rapid economic growth of Korea in the past, and that this caused the number of oil-tanker accidents to rise as oil consumption increased.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.139-154
• /
• 2021

This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.37-46
• /
• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• Korean Chemical Engineering Research
• /
• v.58 no.3
• /
• pp.408-415
• /
• 2020

In this study, the AE-SOM method, which combines auto-encoder and self-organizing map, is used to detect and diagnose faults in EVA production process. Then, the fault propagation pathways are identified using Granger causality test. One year and seven months of operation data were obtained to detect faults of the process, and the process variables of the autoclave reactor are mainly analyzed. In the data pretreatment process, the data are standardized and 200 samples of each grade are randomly chosen to obtain a fault detection model. After that, the best matching unit (BMU) of each grade is confirmed by applying AE-SOM. The faults are determined based on each BMU. When a fault is found, the most causative variable of the fault is identified by using a contribution plot, and the fault propagation pathway is identified by Granger causality test. The prognostic of the two shutdowns is detected, and the fault propagation pathway caused by the faulty variable was analyzed.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
• /
• v.24 no.4
• /
• pp.629-655
• /
• 2015

Nuclear power generation is a major power source which accounts for more than 30% of domestic electricity generation. Electricity market needs to secure stability of base load. This study aimed at analyzing relationships between nuclear power generation and wholesale electricity price (SMP: System Marginal Price) in Korea. For this we conducted ARDL(Autoregressive Distributed Lag) approach and Granger causality test. We found that in terms of total effects nuclear power supply had a positive relationship with SMP while nuclear capacity had a negative relationship with SMP. There is a unidirectional Granger causality from nuclear power supply to SMP while the reverse was not. Nuclear power is closely related to SMP and provides useful information for decision making.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.65-101
• /
• 2014

This paper estimates and characterizes expected inflations using an affine term structure model based on the empirical stochastic process of the interest rates in Korea. The empirical results show that the expected inflation which marked above 4% before the global financial crisis has dampened and stabilized after the crisis. Moreover, we investigate the rationality of the various expected inflation measures in terms of the unbiasedness and efficiency and find that unbiasedness is not rejected across the all measures, while the efficiency cannot be empirically warranted. Besides, we run Granger causality tests and conclude that the expected inflations compiled from the Consensus, BOK-Expert have the cross-causality with the long-run actual inflation, while the expected inflation estimated from the term structure model has the cross-causality with the short-run actual inflation. These results connote that expected inflations collected from different sources and methods have their targets and horizons and the central bank needs to watch all of them with a balanced view instead of preferring one to the other.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.22 no.2
• /
• pp.189-212
• /
• 2005

This study examines the interactions between KTB spot and futures markets using the daily prices from March 4, 2002 to January 31, 2005. We use Granger causality test, impulse Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition through vector autoregressive analysis (VAR). However, considering the long-term relationships between the level variables of KTB spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. The main results are as follows. According to the results of Granger-causality test and impulse response analysis, we find that the yields of KTB forward have a great influence on the change of KTB spot but not vice versa. In terms of volatility analysis, there is no inter-dependence between KTB forward and spot markets. In the variance decomposition analysis we find that the short-term KTB forward has much more impact on the KTB spot market than the long-term KTB forward does. We think these results are meaningful for bond investors who are in charge of capital asset pricing valuation, risk management and international portfolio management.

• Information Systems Review
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.91-111
• /
• 2019

Around the end of 2017, the investment fever for cryptocurrencies-especially Bitcoin-has started all over the world. Especially, South Korea has been at the center of this phenomenon. Sinceit was difficult to find the profitable investment opportunities, people have started to see the cryptocurrency markets as an alternative investment objects. However, the cryptocurrency fever inSouth Korea is mostly based on psychological phenomenon due to expectation of short-term profits and social atmosphere rather than intrinsic value of the assets. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze influence of people's social sentiment on price movement of cryptocurrency. The data was collected for 181 days from Nov 1st, 2017 to Apr 30th, 2018, especially focusing on Bitcoin-related post in Twitter along with price of Bitcoin in Bithumb/UPbit. After the collected data was refined into neutral, positive and negative words through sentiment analysis, the refined neutral, positive, and negative words were put into regression model in order to find out the impacts of social sentiments on Bitcoin price. After examining the relationship by the regression analyses and Granger Causality tests, we found that the positive sentiments had a positive relationship with Bitcoin price, while the negative words had a negative relation with it. Also, the causality test results show that there exist two-way causalities between social sentiment and Bitcoin price movement. Therefore, we were able to conclude that the Bitcoin investors'behaviors are affected by the changes of social sentiments.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.7 no.2
• /
• pp.257-281
• /
• 2004

In this paper we： (1) analyze the relationship among public R＆D investment, private R＆D investment, and GDP by employing the Clangor causality test; (2) examine if there is any country-specific pattern in the relationship by testing the cases of Korea, the U.S. and Japan. We found some common results for the above countries as follows： (i) GDP causes Public R＆D, not vice versa; (ii) Private R＆D causes GDP; and (iii) Public R＆D does not cause Private R＆D. For the bivariate model of GDP and total R＆D, the results show the existence of one-way causality running from total R＆D to GDP f3r both U.S. and Japan. We also found bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and total R＆D for Korea, which could be interpreted as a typical pattern for newly industrialized countries.