• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.693-702
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• 2020

The present study aims to investigate the impact of tourism growth on human development in Indian economy. For this purpose, the study uses annual data from 1980 to 2018 and utilizes two proxies for tourism growth - tourism receipt and tourist arrivals - and uses human development index calculated by UNDP. The study uses control variables such as government expenditure and trade openness. The study employs auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to investigate the cointegrating relationship among the variables in the model. Further, the study also explores the causal nexus between tourism sector and human development by using the Toda-Yamamoto Granger non-causality test. The result of ARDL bounds test reveals the existence of cointegrating relationship between human development indicators, government expenditure, trade openness, and tourism sector growth. The cointegating coefficient confirms a positive and significant relationship between tourism sector growth and human development in India. The causality result suggests that economic growth and tourism have a positive impact while trade openness has a negative impact on human development in India. The major findings of this study suggest that tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of Indian economy in recent years and the country must develop this sector to achieve sustainable development.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권6호
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• pp.543-552
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• 2021

The study examines how foreign capital inflows affect stock market development in Pakistan for the period from July 2008 to June 2018. Several components of foreign capital inflows were used for empirical analysis, namely, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and remittances. Further, market capitalization was used as a proxy for stock market development. The study uses an ARDL model for examining the long-run and short-run relationships between variables. We also analyze the bi-directional causality between the variables through the Granger causality test. Further, the presence of structural breaks was analyzed through the CUSUM and CUSUM Square test. The results suggest that in the long run, remittances have a positive and significant relationship with stock market development. However, foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment, and USD-PKR exchange rate do not have a significant impact on stock market development. The results also suggest that in the short run there is a negative relationship between FDI, USD-PKR exchange rate and market capitalization. Contrarily, we found a positive relationship between FPI and market capitalization. The results of Granger causality test suggest that remittances and USD-PKR exchange rate have a causal relationship with stock market development. Finally, we found no evidence of structural breaks in the dataset.

• 대한안전경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한안전경영과학회 2006년도 춘계공동학술대회
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• pp.471-484
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• 2006

The focus of analysis is effect on Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment of Macroeconomic variables through long-term and short-term periods. Also, this paper is related with implication on steady growth possibility of Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment. The period of variables is from 1985 to April in 2005. In case of not-available data is treated as missing figures. As spatial scope, these data are Non-electrical Machinery and Equipment on the basis of KSIC. In case of items, it composes MTI 1&3 digit of Korea International Trade Association (KITA), on the basis of HSK & classification of Korea Machinery industries. According to Granger causality test, yield of Cooperate Bond and export amount of Machinery have a meaning at statistical Confidence level of 10%. In case of index of the unit cost of export and export amount of Machinery, they have an interactive Granger cause. In yen dollar exchange rate and export amount of Machinery, former variable gives an unilateral Granger cause to latter that.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권2호
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• pp.173-188
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between the logistics industry and the economic growth in Korea, and to provide implications for the contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth. Unlike Previous Related Studies, we derive short-term and long-term effects through dynamic panel analysis such as panel Granger causality test and impulse response function estimation using panel vector error correction model. The results of the empirical analysis are as follows: Labor input of the logistics industry has the greatest positive impact on economic growth. And capital input and total sales of the logistics industry have a negative effect on economic growth. This means that Korea's logistics industry features labor-intensive growth. In addition, We have also found that the growth (sales) and capital input of the logistics industry have not yet had a direct positive impact on economic growth. Therefore, the results of this analysis provide implications for the direction of logistics industry policy to enhance contribution of the logistics industry to economic growth.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2012

본 논문은 카자흐스탄의 해외직접투자와 경제성장에 관한 연관관계를 연구한다. 이 연구를 위하여 저자들은 먼서 카자흐스탄의 독립이후로 해외직접투자에 영향을 미친 요인들을 조사하고 그들의 영향정도를 파악한다. 다음으로 일인당 GDP대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향을 연구한다. 이러한 연구목적을 달성하기 위하여 1992년부터 2009년 사이의 자료를 World Bank Database에서 수집하여 분석하였다. 자료분석은 중회귀분석, 시계열분석 및 Granger Causality Test를 주로 사용하였다. 연구 결과에 의하면 해외직접투자에 영향을 미치는 요소는 GDP 와 economic freedom index로 나타났으며, 경제성장 또한 해외직접 투자에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 특별히, 해외직접투자는 GDP 및 economic freedom index와 양의 상관관계가 있었다. 일인당 GDP에 대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향은 일인당 해외직접투자 1달러 증가시 일인당 GDP 30.4달러가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 정책결정자들로 하여금 해외투자를 유치하고 경제성장을 촉진하는 정책결정에 유용한 정보를 제공할 것이다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.34-41
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• 2018

This paper studied balanced regional development focused on employment in Korea, by analyzing regional disparity between regional and industrial employment. A Gini-coefficient decomposition method and Panel Granger causality test were conducted, using raw data of the Census on Establishments reported by the Statistics Korea. The regional and industrial disparity of employment, based on the Gini-coefficient decomposition method, have increased by year. However, the growth rates of disparity are on the decrease. Most of employment disparity occurred from regional disparity between SMA (Seoul Metropolitan Area) and Non-SMA. Industrial disparity are occurred mainly by the service industry. The amount of contribution to the whole disparity of inter/intra regional employment was differed by each industrial sector. Also the causal relationship between employment growth of manufacture and that of service industry was analyzed by Panel Granger causality test. In national level, the employment growth in manufacture industry has conduced that in service industry. On the other hand, in the Non-SMA, only the employment growth in manufacture industry has augmented that in service industry. In conclusion, to reduce employment disparity, the strategy for balanced regional development should be emphasized. Different strategies are needed across regions and industries. Basically creating new job in the Non-SMA is inevitable. In view of stable employment, manufacture industry is more desirable rather than service industry.

• 서비스연구
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.83-95
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• 2016

본 논문은 한국은행 경제통계시스템에서 제공한 서비스업생산지수와 서비스업도소매지수를 가지고 상호간의 연관성을 분석하였다. 분석을 위한 통계분석 기간은 2000년 1월부터 2015년 9월까지 15년 9개월간의 월별자료 189개를 사용하였고, 분석도구로는 E-Views 6을 이용하여 VAR 모형을 통한 그랜저 인과관계분석(Granger Causality test)과 충격반응분석(Impulse Response Function) 및 분산분해(Variance Decomposition)를 실시하였다. 주요 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 그랜저 인과관계 분석결과(Granger Causality test) 상승률과 변동성에 있어서 서비스업생산지수와 서비스업도소매지수 상호간에 예측력이 있음을 알 수 있었다. 둘째, 충격반응함수(Impulse Response Function)분석결과 서비스업생산지수와 서비스업도도소매지수에 사이에 충격이 존재하여 일정시차까지 영향을 미치다가 사라짐을 알 수 있었다. 이는 다른 산업뿐만 아니라 서비스업산업에 있어서도 생산량은 어느 정도 도소매업체의 판매량을 예측할 수 있다는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 마지막으로 분산분해(Variance Decomposition) 분석결과 서비스업도소매지수는 일정시차동안 73.65%~65.59%의 서비스업생산지수에 의하여 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 서비스업생산지수는 일정시차동안 0.97%~1.92%의 서비스업도소매지수에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타나 영향력이 미미함을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구는 다양한 지수를 대상으로한 상호간의 가격발견을 통한 상호연관성을 분석한 기존의 연구방법을 확장하여 서비스업생산지수와 서비스업도소매지수와의 가격발견 기능을 파악하는데 기여하였다고 사료된다. 이와 같은 연구결과는 물가지수를 관리하고 있는 정부에게 물가정책을 수립하는데 의미를 부여하고, 각종 지수를 관리하고 있는 한국은행 및 통계청에게 의미 있는 시사점을 제공할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에 대한 한계점으로는 물가지수를 이용한 선행연구가 많지 않아서 좀 더 체계적인 분석이 부족하다는 점과 구조변화 시점을 구분하여 분석하지 못했다는 점이다. 따라서 다양한 물가지수를 활용한 후속연구와 구조변화를 전후를 대상으로 한 추가연구가 필요하다고 사료된다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.95-110
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• 2006

Japan's frozen shrimp future market is the only fisheries future commodity market in the world. This empirical study examines the lead and lag relationship between Japan frozen shrimp spot and future markets using the daily prices from August 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005. Frozen shrimp future contract is listed on Japan Kansai Commodities Exchange. Japan imports approximately 250,000 tons of frozen shrimp annually, of which just under 70,000 tons, nearly 30%, are black tiger shrimp. Approximately 90% of black tiger shrimp are caught in Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam, and the two largest consumers of these shrimp are Japan and the U.S.A. Kansai Commodities Exchange adopts the India black tiger shrimp as standard future commodity. We use unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector autoregressive analysis and Impulse response analysis. However, considering the long - term relationships between the level variables of frozen shrimp spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. We find that the price change of frozen shrimp futures with next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 month maturity have a strong predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp spot and the change of frozen shrimp spot also have a predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp with next 1, 2, 3 month maturity. But, the explanatory power of the frozen shrimp futures is relatively greater than that of frozen shrimp spot.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.280-287
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• 2011

연구의 목적은 서민주거안정정책이 주택가격에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것이다. 이에 대한 실증분석을 실시한 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 그랜저인과관계를 검증한 결과 전 지역의 주택시장은 서민주거안정정책에 영향을 주고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 충격반응은 전 지역에서 부(-)의 반응을 보이며, 서민주거안정정책은 주택시장안정에 어느 정도 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 로짓회귀분석결과 서민주거안정정책은 노무현 정부의 강남지역을 제외하고 주택시장안정에 상당한 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제52권2호
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• pp.55-67
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• 2021

Global warming affects critical natural resources, one of which is the oceans that occupy 70% of the total cover of the earth. In other words, ocean warming is a subset of global warming which needs to be addressed urgently. Purple laver (pyropia spp.) is one of the most vulnerable items to climate change although it is a major export product of Korean fisheries. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality of how climate change caused by global warming affects the increase or decrease of PLP (purple laver production). The target area for analysis was set to Maro-hae between Jindo-gun and Haenam-gun. We selected marine environmental factors and meteorologic factors that could affect PLP as variables, as well as co-integration tests to determine long-term balance, and the Granger causticity tests. As a result, PLP and marine environmental factors WT (water temperature), pH, and DO confirmed that long-term equilibrium relationships were established, respectively. However, there is only causality with WT and it is confirmed that there is only a correlation between pH and DO (dissolved oxygen). There was no long-term equilibrium relationship between PLP and HDD (heating degree days) and there is a causal effect that HDD affects PLP; however, it was less clear than that of WT. The relationship between PLP and RF (rainfall), WS (wind speed), SS (percentage of sunshine), and FF (farm facilities) was all balanced in the long term, and causality exists. Based on the results of the analysis, policy proposals were made.