• Title/Summary/Keyword: Gradient Boosting Decision Tree

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Development of Prediction Model of Chloride Diffusion Coefficient using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 염화물 확산계수 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Su
    • Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2023
  • Chloride is one of the most common threats to reinforced concrete (RC) durability. Alkaline environment of concrete makes a passive layer on the surface of reinforcement bars that prevents the bar from corrosion. However, when the chloride concentration amount at the reinforcement bar reaches a certain level, deterioration of the passive protection layer occurs, causing corrosion and ultimately reducing the structure's safety and durability. Therefore, understanding the chloride diffusion and its prediction are important to evaluate the safety and durability of RC structure. In this study, the chloride diffusion coefficient is predicted by machine learning techniques. Various machine learning techniques such as multiple linear regression, decision tree, random forest, support vector machine, artificial neural networks, extreme gradient boosting annd k-nearest neighbor were used and accuracy of there models were compared. In order to evaluate the accuracy, root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used as prediction performance indices. The k-fold cross-validation procedure was used to estimate the performance of machine learning models when making predictions on data not used during training. Grid search was applied to hyperparameter optimization. It has been shown from numerical simulation that ensemble learning methods such as random forest and extreme gradient boosting successfully predicted the chloride diffusion coefficient and artificial neural networks also provided accurate result.

Effect of input variable characteristics on the performance of an ensemble machine learning model for algal bloom prediction (앙상블 머신러닝 모형을 이용한 하천 녹조발생 예측모형의 입력변수 특성에 따른 성능 영향)

  • Kang, Byeong-Koo;Park, Jungsu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.417-424
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    • 2021
  • Algal bloom is an ongoing issue in the management of freshwater systems for drinking water supply, and the chlorophyll-a concentration is commonly used to represent the status of algal bloom. Thus, the prediction of chlorophyll-a concentration is essential for the proper management of water quality. However, the chlorophyll-a concentration is affected by various water quality and environmental factors, so the prediction of its concentration is not an easy task. In recent years, many advanced machine learning algorithms have increasingly been used for the development of surrogate models to prediction the chlorophyll-a concentration in freshwater systems such as rivers or reservoirs. This study used a light gradient boosting machine(LightGBM), a gradient boosting decision tree algorithm, to develop an ensemble machine learning model to predict chlorophyll-a concentration. The field water quality data observed at Daecheong Lake, obtained from the real-time water information system in Korea, were used for the development of the model. The data include temperature, pH, electric conductivity, dissolved oxygen, total organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll-a. First, a LightGBM model was developed to predict the chlorophyll-a concentration by using the other seven items as independent input variables. Second, the time-lagged values of all the input variables were added as input variables to understand the effect of time lag of input variables on model performance. The time lag (i) ranges from 1 to 50 days. The model performance was evaluated using three indices, root mean squared error-observation standard deviation ration (RSR), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The model showed the best performance by adding a dataset with a one-day time lag (i=1) where RSR, NSE, and MAE were 0.359, 0.871 and 1.510, respectively. The improvement of model performance was observed when a dataset with a time lag up of about 15 days (i=15) was added.

Comparison of machine learning algorithms for regression and classification of ultimate load-carrying capacity of steel frames

  • Kim, Seung-Eock;Vu, Quang-Viet;Papazafeiropoulos, George;Kong, Zhengyi;Truong, Viet-Hung
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.193-209
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, the efficiency of five Machine Learning (ML) methods consisting of Deep Learning (DL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), and Gradient Tree Booting (GTB) for regression and classification of the Ultimate Load Factor (ULF) of nonlinear inelastic steel frames is compared. For this purpose, a two-story, a six-story, and a twenty-story space frame are considered. An advanced nonlinear inelastic analysis is carried out for the steel frames to generate datasets for the training of the considered ML methods. In each dataset, the input variables are the geometric features of W-sections and the output variable is the ULF of the frame. The comparison between the five ML methods is made in terms of the mean-squared-error (MSE) for the regression models and the accuracy for the classification models, respectively. Moreover, the ULF distribution curve is calculated for each frame and the strength failure probability is estimated. It is found that the GTB method has the best efficiency in both regression and classification of ULF regardless of the number of training samples and the space frames considered.

The Prediction of Survival of Breast Cancer Patients Based on Machine Learning Using Health Insurance Claim Data (건강보험 청구 데이터를 활용한 머신러닝 기반유방암 환자의 생존 여부 예측)

  • Doeggyu Lee;Kyungkeun Byun;Hyungdong Lee;Sunhee Shin
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • Research using AI and big data is also being actively conducted in the health and medical fields such as disease diagnosis and treatment. Most of the existing research data used cohort data from research institutes or some patient data. In this paper, the difference in the prediction rate of survival and the factors affecting survival between breast cancer patients in their 40~50s and other age groups was revealed using health insurance review claim data held by the HIRA. As a result, the accuracy of predicting patients' survival was 0.93 on average in their 40~50s, higher than 0.86 in their 60~80s. In terms of that factor, the number of treatments was high for those in their 40~50s, and age was high for those in their 60~80s. Performance comparison with previous studies, the average precision was 0.90, which was higher than 0.81 of the existing paper. As a result of performance comparison by applied algorithm, the overall average precision of Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting was 0.90, and the recall was 1.0, and the precision of multi-layer perceptrons was 0.89, and the recall was 1.0. I hope that more research will be conducted using machine learning automation(Auto ML) tools for non-professionals to enhance the use of the value for health insurance review claim data held by the HIRA.

Form-finding of lifting self-forming GFRP elastic gridshells based on machine learning interpretability methods

  • Soheila, Kookalani;Sandy, Nyunn;Sheng, Xiang
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.84 no.5
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    • pp.605-618
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    • 2022
  • Glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) elastic gridshells consist of long continuous GFRP tubes that form elastic deformations. In this paper, a method for the form-finding of gridshell structures is presented based on the interpretable machine learning (ML) approaches. A comparative study is conducted on several ML algorithms, including support vector regression (SVR), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), AdaBoost, XGBoost, category boosting (CatBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM). A numerical example is presented using a standard double-hump gridshell considering two characteristics of deformation as objective functions. The combination of the grid search approach and k-fold cross-validation (CV) is implemented for fine-tuning the parameters of ML models. The results of the comparative study indicate that the LightGBM model presents the highest prediction accuracy. Finally, interpretable ML approaches, including Shapely additive explanations (SHAP), partial dependence plot (PDP), and accumulated local effects (ALE), are applied to explain the predictions of the ML model since it is essential to understand the effect of various values of input parameters on objective functions. As a result of interpretability approaches, an optimum gridshell structure is obtained and new opportunities are verified for form-finding investigation of GFRP elastic gridshells during lifting construction.

Optimal Sensor Location in Water Distribution Network using XGBoost Model (XGBoost 기반 상수도관망 센서 위치 최적화)

  • Hyewoon Jang;Donghwi Jung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.217-217
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    • 2023
  • 상수도관망은 사용자에게 고품질의 물을 안정적으로 공급하는 것을 목적으로 하며, 이를 평가하기 위한 지표 중 하나로 압력을 활용한다. 최근 스마트 센서의 설치가 확장됨에 따라 기계학습기법을 이용한 실시간 데이터 기반의 분석이 활발하다. 따라서 어디에서 데이터를 수집하느냐에 대한 센서 위치 결정이 중요하다. 본 연구는 eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) 모델을 활용하여 대규모 상수도관망 내 센서 위치를 최적화하는 방법론을 제안한다. XGBoost 모델은 여러 의사결정 나무(decision tree)를 활용하는 앙상블(ensemble) 모델이며, 오차에 따른 가중치를 부여하여 성능을 향상시키는 부스팅(boosting) 방식을 이용한다. 이는 분산 및 병렬 처리가 가능해 메모리리소스를 최적으로 사용하고, 학습 속도가 빠르며 결측치에 대한 전처리 과정을 모델 내에 포함하고 있다는 장점이 있다. 모델 구현을 위한 독립 변수 결정을 위해 압력 데이터의 변동성 및 평균압력 값을 고려하여 상수도관망을 대표하는 중요 절점(critical node)를 선정한다. 중요 절점의 압력 값을 예측하는 XGBoost 모델을 구축하고 모델의 성능과 요인 중요도(feature importance) 값을 고려하여 센서의 최적 위치를 선정한다. 이러한 방법론을 기반으로 상수도관망의 특성에 따른 경향성을 파악하기 위해 다양한 형태(예를 들어, 망형, 가지형)와 구성 절점의 수를 변화시키며 결과를 분석한다. 본 연구에서 구축한 XGBoost 모델은 추가적인 전처리 과정을 최소화하며 대규모 관망에 간편하게 사용할 수 있어 추후 다양한 입출력 데이터의 조합을 통해 센서 위치 외에도 상수도관망에서의 성능 최적화에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 기대한다.

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A study on the application of machine learning for the detection of hazardous chemicals in the water environment (수환경 유출 유해화학물질 감지 및 식별에 관한 머신러닝 기법 적용 연구)

  • Nam, Su Han;Kwon, Si Yoon;Kwon, Jae Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.163-163
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    • 2021
  • 하천에서의 화학사고는 자연적 및 인위적인 원인으로 인해 발생할 수 있으며, 이러한 화학사고가 발생하게 되면 수환경 변화를 야기해 생태계나 인간에게 악영향을 발생시킬 수 있어 신속한 초기대응이 필요하다. 하천으로 유입된 화학물질의 평가에 대한 연구는 활발하게 진행되고 있지만, 화학사고 초기대응을 위한 연구는 미비한 실정이다. 초기대응을 위해서는 현장에서 측정이 용이한 지표를 활용해야하며, 이 지표를 이용해 유출된 화학물질에 대한 정보를 취득 할 수 있어야 한다. 하천의 주요 지점에는 pH 및 EC 등을 실시간으로 측정하는 자동측정망을 운영하고 있는데, 이러한 측정항목들을 지표로 활용한다면 하천 화학사고 대응을 위한 중요한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 또한 측정된 데이터를 머신러닝 기법을 적용한다면 화학사고 발생 시 초기대응을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다. 본 연구에서는 분석한 유해화학물질은 총 26종이며, pH 및 EC를 화학물질들의 특성을 파악하기 위한 대체지표로 선정하였다. 화학물질의 농도변화에 따른 대체지표 변화를 측정하였으며, 실험결과를 바탕으로 성질이 유사한 화학물질들을 Group별로 분류하여 데이터베이스를 구축하였다. 구축된 데이터베이스를 바탕으로 머신러닝 기법인 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XG Boosting에 적용해 각 알고리즘에 대한 성능 평가를 진행하여 가장 우수한 성능의 머신러닝 기법을 선정한다. 본 연구 결과를 바탕으로 선정된 머신러닝 기법을 활용한다면 향수 수환경 화학사고 발생 시 유출된 유해화학물질에 대한 정보를 제공할 수 있으며 그에 따른 신속한 대응의 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Classification of Soil Creep Hazard Class Using Machine Learning (기계학습기법을 이용한 땅밀림 위험등급 분류)

  • Lee, Gi Ha;Le, Xuan-Hien;Yeon, Min Ho;Seo, Jun Pyo;Lee, Chang Woo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, classification models were built using machine learning techniques that can classify the soil creep risk into three classes from A to C (A: risk, B: moderate, C: good). A total of six machine learning techniques were used: K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting and then their classification accuracy was analyzed using the nationwide soil creep field survey data in 2019 and 2020. As a result of classification accuracy analysis, all six methods showed excellent accuracy of 0.9 or more. The methods where numerical data were applied for data training showed better performance than the methods based on character data of field survey evaluation table. Moreover, the methods learned with the data group (R1~R4) reflecting the expert opinion had higher accuracy than the field survey evaluation score data group (C1~C4). The machine learning can be used as a tool for prediction of soil creep if high-quality data are continuously secured and updated in the future.

A Study on the Prediction of Mortality Rate after Lung Cancer Diagnosis for Men and Women in 80s, 90s, and 100s Based on Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 80대·90대·100대 남녀 대상 폐암 진단 후 사망률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Kyung-Keun Byun;Doeg-Gyu Lee;Se-Young Lee
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2023
  • Recently, research on predicting the treatment results of diseases using deep learning technology is also active in the medical community. However, small patient data and specific deep learning algorithms were selected and utilized, and research was conducted to show meaningful results under specific conditions. In this study, in order to generalize the research results, patients were further expanded and subdivided to derive the results of a study predicting mortality after lung cancer diagnosis for men and women in their 80s, 90s, and 100s. Using AutoML, which provides large-scale medical information and various deep learning algorithms from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service, five algorithms such as Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, and Logistic Registration were created to predict mortality rates for 84 months after lung cancer diagnosis. As a result of the study, men in their 80s and 90s had a higher mortality prediction rate than women, and women in their 100s had a higher mortality prediction rate than men. And the factor that has the greatest influence on the mortality rate was analyzed as the treatment period.

A Study on Korean Local Governments' Operation of Participatory Budgeting System : Classification by Support Vector Machine Technique (한국 지방자치단체의 주민참여예산제도 운영에 관한 연구 - Support Vector Machine 기법을 이용한 유형 구분)

  • Junhyun Han;Jaemin Ryou;Jayon Bae;Chunghyeok Im
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.461-466
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    • 2024
  • Korean local governments operates the participatory budgeting system autonomously. This study is to classify these entities into clusters. Among the diverse machine learning methodologies(Neural Network, Rule Induction(CN2), KNN, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, SVM, Naïve Bayes), the Support Vector Machine technique emerged as the most efficacious in the analysis of 2022 Korean municipalities data. The first cluster C1 is characterized by minimal committee activity but a substantial allocation of participatory budgeting; another cluster C3 comprises cities that exhibit a passive stance. The majority of cities falls into the final cluster C2 which is noted for its proactive engagement in. Overall, most Korean local government operates the participatory busgeting system in good shape. Only a small number of cities is less active in this system. We anticipate that analyzing time-series data from the past decade in follow-up studies will further enhance the reliability of classifying local government types regarding participatory budgeting.