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A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

A Study on The Enhancement of Aviation Safety in Airport Planning & Construction from a Legal Perspective (공항개발계획과 사업에서의 항공안전성 제고에 대한 법률적 소고)

  • Kim, Tae-Han
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.67-106
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    • 2012
  • Today air traffic at the airport is complicated including a significant increase in the volume of air transport, so aviation accidents are constantly occurring. Therefore, we should newly recognize importance of the Air Traffic Safety, the core values of the Air Traffic. The location of airport that is the basic infrastructure of the air traffic and the security of safety for facilities and equipments are more important than what you can. From this dimension, I analyze the step-by-step safety factors that are taken into account in the airport development projects from the construction or improvement of the airport within the current laws and institutions and give my opinion on the enhancement of safety in the design and construction of airport. The safety of air traffic, as well as airport, depends on location, development, design, construction, inspection and management of the airport including airport facilities because we have to carry out the national responsibility that prevents the risk of large social overhead capital for many and unspecified persons in modern society through legislation regarding intervention of specialists and locational criteria for aviation safety from the planning stage of airport development. In addition, well-defined installation standards of airports and air navigation facilities, the key points of the airport development phase, can ensure the safety of the airport and airport facilities. Of course, the installation standards of airport and air navigation facilities are based on the global standard due to the nature of air traffic. However, to prevent the chaos for the safety standards in design, construction, inspection of them and to ensure the aviation safety, the safety standards must be further subdivided in the course of domestic legislation. The criteria for installation of the Air Navigation facilities is regulated most specifically. However, to ensure the safety of the operation for Air Navigation Facilities, performance system proved suitable for the Safety of Air Navigation Facilities must change over from arbitrary restrictions to mandatory restrictions and be applied for foreign producers as well as domestic producers. Of course, negligence of pilots and defective aircraft maintenance lead to a large portion of the aviation accidents. However, I think that air traffic accidents can be reduced if the airport or airport facility is perfect enough to ensure the safety. Therefore, legal and institutional supplement to prioritize the aviation safety from the stage of airport development may be necessary.

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A Study on the Legislative System of Air Carrier's Liability in case of Delay of Passengers or Baggage (여객 및 수하물의 연착으로 인한 항공운송인의 손해배상책임제도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ji-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.107-142
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    • 2012
  • An aircraft has been one of the most important transportation means and disputes due to damage caused by delay of the aircraft happen many times out of ones related to the air transport. In 2011, the Air Transport Act in Commercial Law was established to regulate national air transport and the legislative system of air carrier's liability to handle delay of passengers or baggage was legislated here. Although there are some clauses related to the legislative system of air carrier's liability, they are very important because they deal with disputes due to damage caused by delay of the aircraft. The Air Transport Act in Commercial Law has a good point of adopting the global standard of 1999 Montreal Convention, but it has also a bad point of having the problems of 1999 Montreal Convention. There are some contents to be modified in the Air Transport Act in Commercial Law. First, the definition of 'Delay of Aircraft' needs to be enacted because it is important to materialize air carrier's liability due to damage caused by delay. Second, it is necessary to modify the clause in which air carrier's liability due to damage caused by delay of passengers is divided into two things, one is in case of national air transport and the other is in case of international air transport, and the limited amount of air carrier's liability in national air transport is eight times less than the latter because they are not so helpful to air carriers but too disadvantageous to aircraft passengers. Third, it is also necessary to amend the clause in which the limited amount of air carrier's liability due to damage caused by loss damage or delay of baggage has been legislated same without classifying the case into loss damage and delay, because they are generally different from each other in terms of extent of damage, therefore the limited amount of air carrier's liability by delay of baggage should be classified into in case of loss damage and in case of delay. It is desired that the Air Transport Act in Commercial Law including the clauses related to air carrier's liability by aircraft damage be developed continually by sufficient study and discussion about the necessity of amending it such as the one mentioned above.

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A Study on the Method of Producing the 1 km Resolution Seasonal Prediction of Temperature Over South Korea for Boreal Winter Using Genetic Algorithm and Global Elevation Data Based on Remote Sensing (위성고도자료와 유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 남한의 겨울철 기온의 1 km 격자형 계절예측자료 생산 기법 연구)

  • Lee, Joonlee;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Jung, Myung-Pyo;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.33 no.5_2
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    • pp.661-676
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    • 2017
  • This study suggests a new method not only to produce the 1 km-resolution seasonal prediction but also to improve the seasonal prediction skill of temperature over South Korea. This method consists of four stages of experiments. The first stage, EXP1, is a low-resolution seasonal prediction of temperature obtained from Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model, and EXP2 is to produce 1 km-resolution seasonal prediction of temperature over South Korea by applying statistical downscaling to the results of EXP1. EXP3 is a seasonal prediction which considers the effect of temperature changes according to the altitude on the result of EXP2. Here, we use altitude information from ASTER GDEM, satellite observation. EXP4 is a bias corrected seasonal prediction using genetic algorithm in EXP3. EXP1 and EXP2 show poorer prediction skill than other experiments because the topographical characteristic of South Korea is not considered at all. Especially, the prediction skills of two experiments are lower at the high altitude observation site. On the other hand, EXP3 and EXP4 applying the high resolution elevation data based on remote sensing have higher prediction skill than other experiments by effectively reflecting the topographical characteristics such as temperature decrease as altitude increases. In addition, EXP4 reduced the systematic bias of seasonal prediction using genetic algorithm shows the superior performance for temporal variability such as temporal correlation, normalized standard deviation, hit rate and false alarm rate. It means that the method proposed in this study can produces high-resolution and high-quality seasonal prediction effectively.

QTL Analysis of Concerned on Ideal Plant Form in Rice (벼의 이상적인 초형에 관여하는 QTL 분석)

  • Chung, Il Kyung;Kim, Kyung-Min
    • Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.213-218
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    • 2017
  • Rice is the staple food of at least half of the world's population. Due to global warming, the weather is difficult to forecast nowadays. Therefore, it is necessary to breed various breeding to respond to such changes in the environment. This study was conducted to analyze the QTL about plant form, culm length, ear number and ear length by using 120 lines by anther culture, a cross between the Indica variety Cheongcheong and Japonica variety Nagdong. DNA marker was selected on the QTLs gene, and the following results were obtained. CNDH (Cheongcheong Nagdong Doubled Haploid) lines frequency distribution table curves about culm length, ear number and ear length exhibited showed a continuous variation close to a normal distribution. QTL analysis result, on culm length qPlL1-1 and qPlL1-2 were detected on the chromosome 1 and qPlL5 was detected on the chromosome 5. However, on ear length qPL2, qPL3 and qPL10, were detected on the chromosome 2, 3 and 10, while on ear number qPN1-1 and qPN1-2 were detected on the chromosome 1, qPN9 was detected on the chromosome 9. The QTLs related to culm length was found to chromosomes 5 and LOD scores were 3.81. The QTLs related to ear length was found to chromosomes 2 and 3 LOD scores were 7.13 and 3.20. The QTLs related to ear number was found to chromosome 9 and LOD scores were 4.27. Twenty two (22) Japonica cultivars and 12 Indica cultivars were analyzed polymorphisms, using selected 9 markers from the result about plant form analysis. RM5311, RM555 and RM8111 about the culm length, the ear length and number of ear were selected on the standard of Cheongcheong and Nagdong. Each rate of concordances about the culm length, the ear length and number of ear are 44.11%, 41.17% and 44.11%.

A Study about the Aesthetics of Oriental in Modern Fashion design (현대패션디자인에 나타난 동양의 미의식 연구)

  • 임영자
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.30
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    • pp.261-274
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    • 1996
  • In the present age dominate by both cer-taingty of 1% and uncertainty of 99% 'Fuzzy thinking' of Bart Kosko that is the way to solve the problems by the scientific way through a worldview of Buddhism or Taoism greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral greatly prevails around the world over 'Lateral thinking' and the authenticity or the right and-wrong of the uncertainty which is the thinking way to find the answer of the problems of illogical way of Edward de Beno against the western vertical thinking were Concurrently fashion designers over the world also adopt the oriental elements. But there exist differences of thoughts between the orient and the occident. And they have dif-ferent thinking way of aestheticism and references of the value on the beauty. Not only beauty but the view through the mind as intuitional thought in which not only the rec-ognition of sense but also the rationalism and the naturalness play key role. The aesthetic sense in the orient contains both the truth and virtue. 2) The beauty of the mean It's from the thought of neutralization of Confucius. The mean or moderation state which in harmony with ethical virtue and aes-thetic beauty is the ideal and is the ultimate. Therefore the thought of Confucian is the creativity in which the balance and the har-mony is most important. Fashion design is also one of the representation of the mean because the spirit of the designer is harmonized for-mlessly with the object of the model of the fashion design. 2) The beauty of skillfulness It indicates the Taoism of Lao-tzu and Chuangtzu. It takes a super-artistic declar-ation that human can feel and recognize the color of colorlessness the sound of sound-lessness and the taste of tastelessness. The thought of arts affected by Taoism is 'ad-vanced age' called the beauty of skillfulness. The view of arts of lao-tzu takes the beauty of cosmos and the nature as a standard. Es-pecially the beauty of inactivity is recognized by the linkage between the beauty and the ugliness. And these things appear in fashion design as a design element such as humor or exaggeration. 3) The beauty of non-dualism It is thought of Buddhism that all evil passions of worry occur form the opposition in dualism. Finally this thought leads to that everything is consistent and truth is only one from the point of view that virtue and vice has on linkage that is 'no virtues no vices' and 'one with two, two, with one, one is not two' A big tendency like this became the root forma-tion of the thought of the oriental arts. 3. Characteristics of the oriental aesthetic sense on the present fashion design 1) The formation of the fashion design on the oriental elements In the picture-incantation which was a representation of an era when the thought of 'cosmic dual forces' dominated the basic polygons of 'a circle square triangle' means both 'one two three' and 'the negative positive mean' of cosmic elements. From this point of view the was of planner cutting in the Orient is dif-ferent from that of the Occidental which is in three-dimensional. The planner polygon type of the cut-pieces comes to have the meaning of the three-dimension when they consist of a suit that has the combination of each cut-piece. This shows the consistency with the principle of cosmos creation of Taoism that one is two two is three and three is every-thing. 2) The coloring and the symbolic represen-tation of the fashion design on the orien-tal elements The sense on the colors in the Orient from the thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is not the experi-enced from the knowledge but contains the consideration of philosophy Five-primary-color representing compass directions Blue(East) Red(South) Yellow(Center) White (West) and Black (North) is called ' the posi-tive' for this five-primary-color secondary-color which comes from the compound of the primary colors is called 'the negative' The thought of 'the cosmic dual forces and the five elements' is also an theory containing the natural order of the cos-mos and this shows the perceptional differ-ence that they are not conceptual but to be recognized and fell directly. A thought of Buddhism which is 'Colors are colorlessness and Clolorlessness are color's proves that. 3) The pattern and symbolic representation of the fashion design on the oriental elements The pattern as a visual style is a figure of symbolic representation which adopt the mental and physical world of human and are the compo-sition of artistic revelation of the human nature and the religous thought of incantation. Es-pecially the symbolic representation of the oriental thought of Confusion. Buddhism and Taoism There are patterns such as plants aminals the oriental four gods and geometry. From the above it's the time toward the 21'th century when the world is constructing one global area and one historical zone. And the exotic mood of the Orient represented in the fashion which doesn't make the common feeling in general does not cease to develop only to express the visual modeling but also adopts the thought religion and the art which are the root of the Orientail and contains inherent willing of modeling.

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Can the C-14 Urea Breath Test Reflect the Extent and Degree of Ongoing Helicobacter pylori Infection? (C-14 요소호기검사의 정량치가 Helicobacter pylori 감염 정도를 반영할 수 있을까?)

  • Lim, Seok-Tae;Sohn, Myung-Hee;Lee, Seung-Ok;Lee, Soo-Teik;Jeong, Myoung-Ja
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2001
  • Purpose: The C-14 urea breath test (C-14 UBT) is the most specific noninvasive method to detect Helicobacter (H) pylori infection. We investigated if the C-14 UBT can reflect the presence and degree of H. pylori detected by gastroduodenoscopic biopsies (GBx). Materials and methods: One hundred fifty patients (M:F=83:67, age $48.6{\pm}11.2$ yrs) underwent C-14 UBT, rapid urease test (CLO test) and GBx on the same day. For the C-14 UBT, a single breath sample was collected at 10 minutes after ingestion of C-14 urea (137 KBq) capsule and counting was done in a liquid scintillation counter for 1 minute, and the results were classified as positive (${\geq}200dpm$), Intermediate ($50{\sim}199dpm$) or negative (<50 dpm). The results of CLO tests were classified as positive or negative according to color change. The results of GBx on giemsa stain were graded 0 (normal) to 4 (diffuse) according to the distribution of H. pylori by the Wyatt method. We compared C-14 UBT results with GBx grade as a gold standard. Results: In the assessment of the presence of H. pylori infection, the C-14 UBT global performance yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of 92.5%, 88.4%, 97.1%, 88.4% and 91.3%, respectively. However, the CLO test had sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of 83.2%, 81.4%, 91.8%, 81.4% and 82.7%, respectively. The quantitative values of the C-14 UBT were $45{\pm}27$ dpm in grade 0, $707{\pm}584dpm$ in grade 1, $1558{\pm}584dpm$ in grade 2, $1851{\pm}604dpm$ in grade 3, and $2719{\pm}892dpm$ in grade 4. A significant correlation (r=0.848, p<0.01) was found between C-14 UBT and the grade of distribution of H. pylori infection on GBx with giemsa stain. Conclusion: We conclude that the C-14 UBT is a highly accurate, simple and noninvasive method for the diagnosis of ongoing H. pylori infection and reflects the degree of bacterial distribution.

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Comparison of the Quantitative Values of C-14 and C-13 UBT to Reflect the Presence and Degree of Ongoing Helicobacter pylori Infection (Helicobacter pylori 감염 유무와 정도 반영에 대한 C-14와 C-13 요소호기검사 정량치 비교)

  • Lim, Seok-Tae;Kim, Dong-Wook;Jeong, Hwan-Jeong;Sohn, Myung-Hee
    • Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.229-234
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: A urea breath test (UBT) using C-14 or C-13 has been developed for identifying Helicobacter (H) pylori infection on the basis of urease production with release of labeled $CO_2$. We investigated if the C-14 and C-13 UBT have the difference to reflect the presence and degree of H. pylori infection detected by gastro-duodenoscopic biopsies (CBx) in the same patients. Materials and methods: Thirty eight patients (M:F = 28:10, age $53.4{\pm}13.0$ yrs) with upper gastrointestinal symptoms such as indigestion, gastric fullness or pain consecutively underwent C-14 UBT, GBx and C-13 UBT within one week before medications. For the C-14 UBT, a single breath sample was collected at 10 minutes after ingestion of C-14 urea (37 KBq) capsule and counting was done in a liquid scintillation counter for 1 minute, and the results were classified as positive (${\ge}$ 200 dpm), intermediate (50-199 dpm) or negative (50 dpm). For the C-13 UBT, the results were classified as positive (${\ge}2.5\%_{\circ}$) or negative ($<2.5\%_{\circ}$). The results of GBx with Giemsa stain were graded 0 (normal) to 4 (diffuse) according to the distribution of H. pylori by the Wyatt method. We compared C-14 UBT and C-13 UBT results with GBx grade as a gold standard. Results: The prevalence of H. pylori infection by GBx with Giemsa stain was 25/38 (65.8%). In the assessment of the presence of H. pylori infection, the C-14 UBT global performance yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV) and accuracy of 92.0%, 92.3%, 95.8%, 91.7% and 92.1%, respectively. However, the C-13 UBT had sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy of 96.0%, 84.6%, 92.3%, 91.7% and 92.1%, respectively. The more significant correlation in C-14 than C-13 UBT (r=0.948 vs r=0.819, p <0.001) was found between the value of UBT and the grade of distribution of H. pylori infection. Conclusion: We conclude that the diagnostic performance between C-14 and C-13 UBT to detect H. pylori infection is not significantly different, but the value of C-14 UBT more significantly reflects the degree of bacterial distribution.

A Study on the Precedents Changing Related to International Jurisdiction in Electronic Commerce-Focused on U.S. Cases- (전자상거래의 국제재판관할 관련 판례변화에 관한 연구)

  • Woo, Kwang-Myung
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.3-29
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    • 2011
  • The Internet has become a medium through which people engage in increasingly sophisticated transactions. Businesses and consumers now use the Internet to communicate and engage in commercial transactions creating a virtual worldwide marketplace. They fear that the determination of Internet jurisdiction could be uncertain because electronic commerce is not executed in one particular place. Until now, there are no specific rules in the model laws and conventions dealing with international jurisdiction in electronic commerce. Due to the fact that U.S. companies are at the forefront of Internet technology, litigation regarding electronic commerce in the U.S. is more advanced than anywhere else in the world This paper analysis the basic framework for personal jurisdiction and approach for determining international jurisdiction in electronic commerce cases and explain the differences of several approaches involving interactions over the Internet. According to jurisdiction approach test, the U.S. employs sliding scale, effects and targeting test in electronic commerce. In recent many research views the targeting test as a global standard for determining international electronic commerce jurisdiction. However, there is still no clear indication of conclusive test of jurisdiction determination for electronic commerce. Therefore, it is a changing and process of jurisdiction test in the U.S. cases. In Korea, there is jurisdiction related clause in Private International Law, but it may be asked whether applicable in electronic commerce. Accordingly, analysis of the precedents changing related to electronic commerce jurisdiction of U.s. is full of suggestions in Korean companies, consumers and helps an enactment of code of civil procedure that containing many group's demands.

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A Study on the Selection of the Recommended Safety Distance Between Marine Structures and Ships Based on AIS Data (AIS 기반 해양시설물과 선박간 권고 안전이격거리 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Woo-ju;Lee, Jeong-seok;Lee, Bo-kyeong;Cho, Ik-soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.420-428
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    • 2019
  • Although marine structures are a risk factor interfering with the passage of ships, there are no obvious guidelines on the required safety distance between ships and marine structures under regulations and laws. In this study, the width of the shipping route width was set based on the AIS data to analyze the separation distance between marine structures and ships, and the ships were classified by the length of each ship. By analyzing the distribution at marine structures, this study confirmed that the ships' traffic volume was in the form of normal distribution. To statistically analyze the separation distance between the traffic distribution results and the normal distribution of ships in this study, the traffic pattern analysis around the marine structures was performed. As a result, the traffic pattern was different by length and the recommended safety distance for each length is presented accordingly. Referring to the IMO (International Maritime Organization) the standard turning circle and reference of safety separation distance between ships and offshore wind turbines of the CESMA (Confederation of European Shipmasters' Associations) and P IANC (World Association for Waterborne Transport Infrastructures), the analysis was conducted on ships that did not follow the set distance among the AIS data by setting the distance within the recommended ship safety distance to 5-7 overall length. As a result, the 5.5 length over all of the safety recommendations were selected as appropriate, and based on the above results, the two cases recommending ship safety distance were proposed.