• Title/Summary/Keyword: Global Market Forecast

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Comovement of International Stock Market Price Index (주가동조현상에 관한 연구)

  • Khil, Jae-Uk
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.181-200
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    • 2003
  • Comovement of international stock market prices has been lately a major controversy in the global stock market. This paper explores whether the common trend has really existed among the US, Japan and Korea's stock markets using the econometric techniques such as VAR, VECM as applied. Pair of indices from the exchange market and the over-the-counter market in each country has been tested, and the exchange market only has been turned out that the common trend existed. The dynamic analyses using the Granger causality test, impulse response function, and the forecast error decomposition have followed to show that the US stock market has played some important role in the Korea and Japan's market in the exchange as well as in the OTC market. The results of the paper imply that the more careful investigation with respect to the co-integration may be necessary in the global market integration studies.

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A Study on Logistics Distribution Industry's IoT Situation and Development Direction (국내외 물류산업의 사물인터넷(IoT) 현황과 발전방향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Tae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.141-160
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    • 2015
  • IoT(Internet of Things) has become a major issue as new type of convergence technology, expending existing of USNs(Ubiquitous Sensor Networks), NFC(Near Field Communication), and M2M(Machine to Machine). The IoT technology defines as a networking for things, which can establish intelligent links collaboratively for sensing networking and processing between each other without human intervention. The purpose of this study is to investigate to forecast the future distribution changes and orientation of contribution of distribution industry on IoT and to provide the implication of distribution changes. To become a global market leader, IoT requires much more development of core technology of IoT for distribution industry, new service creation and try to use a market-based demand side strategy to create markets. So, to become a global leader in distribution industry, this study results show that first of all establishment of standardization of IoT, privacy safeguards, security issues, stability and value were more important than others. The research findings suggest that the development goals of IoT should strive to boost the creation of a global leader in distribution industry and convenience to consider consumers' demands as the most important thing.

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A SWOT Analysis by Market Size Forecasting and a Business Analysis of Korean Ship Management Companies (우리나라 선박관리기업의 시장규모추정과 경영분석에 의한 SWOT분석)

  • Lee, Shin-Won;Ahn, Ki-Myung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to forecast the ship-management market size and to propose a management improvement scheme to support Korean ship management companies in the stagnating world shipping market. Recently, global shipping companies have begun outsourcing all ship management activities. However, the Korean ship-management market represents just 3.75% of ocean shipping companies' sales, making it necessary to enlarge this market. This study performs a business analysis of ship management companies in Korea. The findings show that these companies' profitability and financial structures are not very good, mainly because of insufficient management ability and small firm sizes. Therefore, we propose that the Korean government supports crew training programs and shipping financial systems.

A Study on the Improving the Competitiveness through Analysis of Advanced HALAL Logistics Management Status

  • HWANG, Moon-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Food & Health Convergence
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2020
  • The global halal market is forecast to grow at an annual average of 5.2 percent from 2017 to $3.07 trillion in 2023 due to the high growth rate of the world's Muslim population, the spread of halal-certified food consumption and the economic growth of the Muslim world. Through this study, the difficulty of obtaining halal certification can be overcome through accurate understanding of the general supply chain and other halal supply chain. Also, by examining the trends and requirements of halal logistics standards in countries with advanced halal logistics systems, halal logistics certification agencies, and halal port logistics, we can help establish our own halal logistics system by finding areas that can be benchmarked in Korea and differentiated from those that can be found. For the safe supply chain management of halal products between logistics Supply Chain, an integrated logistics system shall be developed to manage customs and customs as one-stop, while maintaining a complete halal condition on a series of logistics processes such as storage, transportation, customs clearance, etc. Korea, entry into the halal logistics market through halal integrity guarantee solution or platform development can also be considered, taking advantage of the strength of IT and packaging.

Prospects and Analysis of Technological Trend To Smart Glasses Evolution (스마트안경의 기술동향 분석과 전망)

  • Park, Jong-Man;Hwang, Jae-Ryong;Kim, Ha-Jine
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.163-170
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    • 2013
  • There are many pros and cons for whether smart glasses and watch would be further going technology or not beyond smart phone. What have to do domestically is to find acting ways to catch up with technological gap in short term basis through analyses and investigations in technological issues, patents profile, market forecast. In this paper, firstly we investigate and review technological issues and form factors of smart glasses and HMD, and secondly analyze technological tendency and identify their core technology and intension from global key player's patents analyses connected with smart glasses, and conclusively suggest technological prospects and it's countermeasures.

5G Mobile Traffic Forecast (5G 모바일 트래픽 전망)

  • Jahng, J.H.;Park, S.K.
    • Electronics and Telecommunications Trends
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.129-136
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    • 2020
  • Korea launched the world's first commercial 5G services in April 2019. Mobile traffic is expected to increase further with the acceleration of mobile-centric data utilization. It is one of the most important indexes of the growth of the mobile communications market, and it has a close relationship with frequency demand and supply, network management, and information communication policy. To overcome the limitations of an analytical solution due to the high complexity of the real world, this paper estimates the diffusion of 5G users using systemic thinking and the behavior of individual agents. Based on these demand forecasts, contributions to the establishment of strategic policies are suggested. For better understanding, global 5G predictions of subscribers and mobile traffic are also compared.

Development of F-theta lens for Laser Scanning Unit (LSU) (레이저 주사광학계용 F-Theta Lens 개발)

  • Kim, Byeong-Gun;Lee, Gyeong-Sub;Jeong, Shang-Hwa;Kim, Sang-Suk;Kim, Hye-Jeong;Kim, Jeong-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2005.07a
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    • pp.459-460
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    • 2005
  • The global consumption of aspheric surfaces will expand rapidly on the Electronics and Optical Components, Information and Communications, Aerospace and Defense, and Medical optics markets etc. We must research on market, technology forecast and analysis of aspheric surfaces that is a principle step of ultra precision machine technology with a base one of optical elements. Especially, F-theta lens is one of the important parts in LSU(Laser scanning unit) because it affects on the optical performance of LSU dominantly. The core is most of important to produce plastic F-theta lens by plastic injection molding method, which is necessary to get the ultra-precision aspheric and non-axisymmetric machine processing technology.

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A Study on the Form Accuracy Improvement of Mold Core for F-Theta Lens (F-Theta Lens 금형코어 형상정도 향상에 관한 연구)

  • Kim S.S.;Jeong S.H.;Kim H.U.;Kim H.J.;Kim J.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.777-780
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    • 2005
  • The global consumption of aspheric surfaces will expand rapidly on the Electronics and Optical Components Information and Communications, Aerospace and Defense, and Medical optics markets etc. We must research on market, technology forecast and analysis of aspheric surfaces that is a principle step of ultra precision machine technology with a base one of optical elements. Especially, F-theta lens is one of the important parts in LSU(Laser scanning unit) because it affects on the optical performance of LSU dominantly. The core is most of important to produce plastic F-theta lens by plastic injection molding method, which is necessary to get the ultra-precision aspheric and non-axisymmetric machine processing technology.

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Analysis of Global Shipping Market Status and Forecasting the Container Freight Volume of Busan New port using Time-series Model (글로벌 해운시장 현황 분석 및 시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 신항 컨테이너 물동량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • JO, Jun-Ho;Byon, Je-Seop;Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we analyze the trends of the international shipping market and the domestic and foreign factors of the crisis of the domestic shipping market, and identify the characteristics of the recovery of the Busan New Port trade volume which has decreased since the crisis of the domestic shipping market We quantitatively analyzed the future volume of Busan New Port and analyzed the trends of the prediction and recovery trends. As a result of analyzing Busan New Port container cargo volume by using big data analysis tool R, the variation of Busan New Cargo container cargo volume was estimated by ARIMA model (1,0,1) (1,0,1)[12] Estimation error, AICc and BIC were the most optimal ARIMA models. Therefore, we estimated the estimated value of Busan New Port trade for 36 months by using ARIMA (1, 0, 1)[12], which is the optimal model of Busan New Port trade, and estimated 13,157,184 TEU, 13,418,123 TEU, 13,539,884 TEU, and 4,526,406 TEU, respectively, indicating that it increased by about 2%, 2%, and 1%.

Predicting stock movements based on financial news with systematic group identification (시스템적인 군집 확인과 뉴스를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Seong, NohYoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.