• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.45-62
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• 2022

Purpose - Using unexpected changes in geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsula as a quasi-natural experimental setting, we examine whether and how geopolitical risks travel across borders through firm-level imports and exports linkages. We also test whether the effects are driven by either imports or exports and assess whether firms can effectively hedge themselves against geopolitical risks. Design/methodology - We focus on a series of unanticipated geopolitical events taken place in Korea in 2018. Making use of the shocks to geopolitical climate, we identify five milestone events toward peace talks. We employ the event studies methodology. We examine heterogenous firm-level stock price reactions around key event dates depending on firms' exposure to geopolitical risks. As a measure of firms' exposure to geopolitical risks in Korea, we utilize a text-based measure of firm-level trade links. When a firm announces and discusses its purchase of inputs from Korea or sales of outputs to Korea in their annual disclosure filings, we define a firm to have a trade relationship with Korea and have exposure to Korean geopolitical risks. Similarly, we use a measure of a firm's hedging policies based on a firm's textual mention of the use of foreign exchange derivatives in their annual disclosure. Findings - We find that U.S. firms that have direct trade links to Korea gained significantly more value when the intensity of geopolitical risks drops compared to firms without such trade links to Korea. The effects are pronounced for firms purchasing inputs from or selling outputs to Korea. We find that the effectiveness of foreign exchange hedging against geopolitical risks is limited. Originality/value - We document the international transmission of geopolitical uncertainty through trade linkages. Export links as well as import links serve as important nexus of transmission of geopolitical risks across borders. Hedging strategies involving foreign-exchanges derivatives do not seem to insulate firms again geopolitical risks. With the recent movements of localization and reshuffling of the global value chain, our results suggest a significant impact of geopolitical risks in Korea on the construction of the global value chain.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.133-143
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• 2023

The detrimental impacts of financial instability on the world economy during the financial crisis highlighted the requirement to understand the existing financial circumstances. Stability and developments in financial conditions are important for economic prosperity. This study analyses the impact of geopolitical risk on the economic conditions of some specific emerging economies using monthly data from January 1999 to September 2016 by applying a fixed-effects panel data model. The estimation results demonstrated that geopolitical risk has a significant, negative impact on financial conditions. It shows geopolitical risk could be seen as a key factor that contributes towards financial conditions. Further, it implies that negative shocks of high geopolitical risk experienced by emerging economies are one of the primary reasons for the financial conditions' deterioration. The findings provide important insights for governments, policymakers, and investors. For instance, governments and politicians should refrain from expressing or producing tension, economic discomfort, or news that is likely to increase a high geopolitical risk. Maintaining a close eye on geopolitical risk and its sources may also help to stabilize financial conditions and develop a well-functioning financial system. As a result, investors would be better informed about an economy's economic and financial conditions, allowing them to diversify their international portfolios and devise investing strategies during uncertain economic times.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제47권4호
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• pp.239-245
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• 2023

본 연구는 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향에 대해서 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 우리나라는 무역의존도가 높은 대외의존적인 경제구조를 가지고 있으며, 수출입의 대부분이 해상운송을 통해서 이루어지고 있다. 따라서, 지정학적 위기로 인하여 세계경제에 변동이 생기면 우리나라 항만 물동량에 영향을 미칠 수 있다는 이론적 예상이 가능하다. 이에 본 연구는 1995년~2022년 기간 동안 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 지정학적 위기가 우리나라 항만 물동량에 미치는 영향은 일부 항만을 제외하고 통계적으로 유의하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나, 지정학적 위기가 항만물동량에 미치는 영향은 수출과 수입에 따라, 그리고 항만에 따라 다른 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 지정학적 위기는 수출 물동량에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 항만을 통한 수출입 단가에 대해서 분석한 결과, 지정학적 위기는 수입단가에 부(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.206-213
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• 2024

본 연구는 지정학적 위기와 해운기업 주식가격 변동성의 인과관계를 분석하였다. 해운산업은 국가간의 교역에 의해서 수요가 파생되는 국제성을 가지기 때문에, 여러 가지 종류의 불확실성과 리스크에 직면하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 최근 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 및 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁 등으로 부상하고 있는 지정학적 위기가 해운산업에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 한다. 특히, 지정학적 불확실성이 해운기업의 주식가격 변동성에 미치는 영향에 대해서 분석함으로서 이에 대한 시사점을 제공하고자 한다. 2000~2023년 기간 동안 한국거래소에 상장된 해운기업 5개사의 주식가격 변동성과 지정학적 위기 지수의 관계를 벡터자기회귀모형 기반의 인과성을 검정한 결과, 다음과 같은 결론이 도출되었다. 첫째, 지정학적 위기가 고조될수록 해운기업 주식가격의 변동성은 확대되었다. 둘째, 외교적 마찰로 인한 지정학적 위기보다는 실제 발생하는 이벤트에 의한 지정학적 위기의 영향이 통계적으로 유의하였다. 마지막으로, 지정학적 위기로 인한 주식가격 변동성의 확대는 주로 벌크부문에 나타났다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권38호
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• pp.47-82
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• 2015

To control the sphere, it required a strategic understanding to sphere and a power for overcome to it. In the early 20th century, the Pacific-War is a confrontation between the U.S. and the Japan for holding supremacy a pacific ocean sphere, building on maritime geopolitical perception. The Pacific ocean is a large of sphere, so if a country pursues a Pacific region supremacy, it needs a strategic perception and capability to control the sphere. After the U.S. has unified the continental, it has formed geopolitical perception in the Pacific ocean and by the way to control the Pacific ocean selected a naval power. The U.S. must have overcome a Pacific sphere for getting through to the Pacific region, this concept has developed the War Plan Orange(war plan relations with the Japan). Meanwhile, at this point of time, the Japan has recognized to a geopolitical point of view about security environment in the Pacific ocean. like as the U.S. has the War Plan Orange in mind for building on geopolitical perception of the Pacific ocean, the Japan also has learned geopolitical perception from the U.S. Because of this, the Japan has established the Interception-Attrition strategy(war plan relations with the U.S.). If we don't have overcome a sphere of the Pacific ocean, we don't hold hegemony of the Asia-Pacific region. So the analysis of perspective maritime geopolitics about the Pacific war is a meaningful study.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.259-277
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• 2021

This article investigates the geopolitics of the energy transition era, concentrating on China's solar photovoltaic (PV) industry. Authors have noted that the rise of renewables is changing the geopolitical landscape of world energy systems, but these new energy sources carry their own technical characteristics and geopolitical implications. Bearing this in mind, this research answers the questions: What are the structural factors that facilitate China's use of renewable energy to achieve political goals, and what are their implications? In order to analyze the data, I devise an analytical framework based on the energy statecraft literature and contrast rival explanations, particularly the "prosumer theory" and the premise of less geopolitical interdependence in a renewable-centered world. I show that asymmetric interdependence in the solar PV sector is already a reality. China's solar PV industry is a case that suffices all conditions (centrality in industrial capacity, market share, and companies' compliance, but to a lesser extent in critical materials and technological endowments) in the solar PV sector to devise effective strategies aimed at reaping benefits out of its asymmetric interdependence with the rest of the world.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.145-162
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• 2023

This research investigates how users of Bilibili, a video sharing website based in China have responded to carbon neutrality. By conducting quantitative textual analyses on 3,311 comments on Bilibili using LDA topic extraction and content statistics, this research discovers that: (1) Bilibili users have assigned more weight to geopolitical topics (56.3%) than energy (22.0%) and environmental topics (21.7%). (2) When assessing carbon neutrality, Bilibili users considered geopolitical (53.8%) and energy factors (15.8%) more heavily than factors related to the class (9.2%), economy (8.9%), environment (8.7%), and definition (3.6%). (3) More Bilibili users had negative (64.6%) attitudes towards carbon neutrality, with only a small portion of them expressing positive (26.8%) and neutral (8.6%) attitudes. (4) Negative attitudes towards carbon neutrality were mainly driven by geopolitical concerns about the West's approach to China, other countries' free-riding on China's efforts and the West's manipulation of rules, doubts about the feasibility of energy transition and suspicion of capitalists exploiting consumers through this concept. This research highlights the geopolitical concerns behind the environmental attitudes of Chinese people, deepening our understanding to psychological constructs and crisis sensitivity of Chinese people towards environmental issues.

• 한국경제지리학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.143-160
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• 2016

공적개발원조는 무역, 해외 직접투자, 해외 송금 등과 마찬가지로 국가 간 경계를 넘는 일종의 국제적인 금융 행위이다. 공적개발원조의 수행은 일정한 목적이 있으며, 여러 가지 목적 가운데 정치적 목적은 중요한 요인으로 고려되었다. 이에 따르면, 공적개발원조는 정치적인 것이며, 공적개발원조의 수행은 이를 제공하는 행위자가 지정학을 실천하는 하나의 형태라고 할 수 있다. 본 연구는 한국의 공적개발원조 정책을 둘러싸고 구성되는 지정학적 담론과 그 특징을 분석하였다. 특히 정책에 강한 영향력을 행사할 수 있는 행위자와 관련된 현실지정학에 주목하였고, 국회회의록을 분석하여 '인도주의 실천', '발전 모형의 전형', '시장 개척', '글로벌 지정학의 변화에 대한 대응'이라는 지정학적 담론을 도출하였다. 지정학적 담론은 원조 정책을 대내외적으로 합리화하는 과정에서 만들어졌고, 동시에 같은 목적으로 이용되었다. 이 과정에서, 선진국과 개발도상국은 대립적이고 전형적이며 고정적인 이미지로 재현되었다.

• 한국수소및신에너지학회논문집
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• 제33권5호
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• pp.470-498
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• 2022

Recently, the world has been considering hydrogen energy as the primary energy transition means to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. In order to achieve the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, Korea is also promoting a clean hydrogen economy. However, it is necessary to introduce various clean hydrogen from overseas so that the projected demand can not meet the domestically produced. For this study, we conducted the policy comparison approach between countries other than the generally considered technical and economic approaches. The finding proposes the direction of bilateral cooperation for a strategy of securing overseas clean hydrogen from a geopolitical perspective. Germany was a target country for the policy comparison since it has a high proportion of manufacturing, like Korea, and is taking the lead in the renewable-based energy transition policy. According to the survey and analysis of the policy establishment status and new projects of the two countries, Germany is promoting bilateral international cooperation in the hydrogen area with about 33 countries based on 7 types of activities. In comparison, Korea is involved in bilateral cooperation with about 12 countries on relatively few activities. Among the types of bilateral cooperation, R&D cooperation with advanced countries for hydrogen technology was a common activity type. Germany preemptively promotes cooperation for demonstration and commercialization, considering geopolitical means and strengthening manpower training and assistance on policy and regulation to preoccupy the market for the future. Therefore, it is necessary to consider establishing a network of an entire life cycle of supply and demand network that links the future market with securing clean hydrogen considering the geopolitical distribution. To this end, Korea also needs to expand bilateral cooperation countries by activity type, and it seems necessary to seek various geopolitical-based bilateral cooperation and support measures for developing countries to diversify the supply sources of hydrogen.

• Acta Via Serica
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.1-22
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• 2020

The paper discusses how the new EU Strategy towards Central Asia issued in May 2019 might be analyzed through the lens of the intensely debated transformations from the liberal to a post-liberal international order. The author claims that the EU's normative power is transforming from the post-Cold War predominantly liberal/ value-based approach, with democracy and human rights at its core, to a set of more technical tools and principles of good governance and effective management of public administration. The paper problematizes a nexus between the dynamics of the EU's nascent post-liberalism and the geopolitical challenges of the EU's growing engagement with illiberal regimes, focuses on direct encounters between the post-liberal EU and the illiberal elites in Central Asia, and seeks to find out the impact of these connections upon the EU's international subjectivity. In this context geopolitical dimensions of EU foreign and security policies, along with the specificity of the EU's geopolitical actorship in Central Asia, are discussed.