• 제목/요약/키워드: Generation Prediction

검색결과 808건 처리시간 0.024초

신경망 이론을 이용한 통행발생 모형연구 (선형/비선형 회귀모형과의 비교) (Trip Generation Model Using Backpropagation Neural Networks in Comparison with linear/nonlinear Regression Analysis)

  • 장수은;김대현;임강원
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2000
  • 본 연구의 목적은 기존의 대표적 통행발생모형인 회귀모형과 신경망 이론에 의한 통행발생모형을 비교.분석하여 통행발생모형에 대한 새로운 방법을 제시하고자 하는 것이다. 이를 위해 모형의 검정력과 안정성을 현재적 설명력과 장래 예측력의 결합으로 전제하고, 시나리오에 따른 모형의 검정력 변화를 통한 안정성 평가를 수행하였다. 연구결과 역전파 신경망 모형(Backpropagation Neural Networks)은 회귀모형의 검정력과 안정성을 상회하는 우수한 결과를 보여 주었으며, 이는 향후 통행발생 모형으로 역전파 신경망 모형의 적용 가능성을 의미하는 것으로 해석된다. 특히 복잡해진 교통현상과 다양한 수집자료를 고려할 때 교통분야에서의 신경망 모형의 적용은 더욱 확대될 전망이다.

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고전력 전자소자에서 열전생성기의 생성효율과 열적성능 (Generation Efficiency and Thermal Performance of a Thermoelectric Generator with a High Power Electronic Component)

  • 김경준
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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    • 제36권1호
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    • pp.51-56
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    • 2012
  • 본 논문은 고파워 전자소자의 폐열로부터 에너지 수확을 목적으로 하는 열전생성기의 생성효율과 열적 성능에 대하여 논한다. 열경계저항을 포함하는 열전모델이 적용되어 생성효율과 고전력 전자소자의 junction 온도를 예측하였고 그 결과는 실험치로 검증되어진다. 검증결과는 예측치와 계측치의 오차가 작음을 보인다. 검증후 열전모델은 다양한 로드저항과 열원의 열율에서 생성효율, 열전생성기 양면의 온도차, 소자의 junction 온도를 예측한다. 본 연구는 로드저항이 생성효율, 열전생성기 양면의 온도차, junction 온도에 미치는 영향에 대해서도 탐구한다.

Real-time Optimal Operation Planning of Isolated Microgrid Considering SOC balance of ESS

  • Lee, Yoon Cheol;Shim, Ji Yeon;Kim, Jeongmin;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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    • 제23권10호
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    • pp.57-63
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    • 2018
  • The operating system for an isolated microgrid, which is completely disconnected from the central power system, aims at preventing blackouts and minimizing power generation costs of diesel generators through efficient operation of the energy storage system (ESS) that stores energy produced by renewable energy generators and diesel generators. In this paper, we predict the amount of renewable energy generation using the weather forecast and build an optimal diesel power generation plan using a genetic algorithm. In order to avoid inefficiency due to inaccurate prediction of renewable energy generation, our search algorithm imposes penalty on candidate diesel power generation plans that fail to maintain the SOC (state of charge) of ESS at an appropriate level. Simulation experiments show that our optimization method for maintaining an appropriate SOC balance can prevent the blackout better when compared with the previous method.

태양광발전 단기예측모델 개발 (The Development of the Short-Term Predict Model for Solar Power Generation)

  • 김광득
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, Korea Institute of Energy Research, building integrated renewable energy monitoring system that utilizes solar power generation forecast data forecast model is proposed. Renewable energy integration of real-time monitoring system based on monitoring data were building a database and the database of the weather conditions and to study the correlation structure was tailoring. The weather forecast cloud cover data, generation data, and solar radiation data, a data mining and time series analysis using the method developed models to forecast solar power. The development of solar power in order to forecast model of weather forecast data it is important to secure. To this end, in three hours, including a three-day forecast today Meteorological data were used from the KMA(korea Meteorological Administration) site offers. In order to verify the accuracy of the predicted solar circle for each prediction and the actual environment can be applied to generation and were analyzed.

태양광발전설비 원격 관제를 위한 빅데이터 분석 및 처리 (Big Data Analysis and Processing for Remote Control of PV Facilities)

  • 권준아;김영근;이종찬;김원중
    • 한국전자통신학회논문지
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.837-844
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    • 2018
  • 신재생에너지의 발전량 변동에 따라 기존 발전기의 발전량을 증가시키거나 감소시켜야 하는데, 발전량 증 감발에 빠르게 반응을 하는 발전기들은 상대적으로 발전비용이 크므로 태양광발전의 예측 정확도에 따라서 기동발전계획의 비용 효율성이 영향을 받게 된다. 이에 본 논문에서는 태양광 발전량 예측의 불확실성을 최소화하기 위하여 빅데이터 분석 및 처리를 적용한 태양광발전설비 원격관제 시스템을 제안하였다.

양자화된 트랜스폼 계수를 이용한 고속 Prediction Unit 결정방법 (Fast Prediction Unit Decision Using Quantized Transform Coefficient)

  • 권령희;이영렬
    • 방송공학회논문지
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    • 제17권5호
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    • pp.725-733
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    • 2012
  • ITU-T VCEG과 ISO/IEC MPEG은 공동으로 JCT-VC(Joint Collaborative Team on Video Coding) 를 구성하여 차세대 비디오 코덱 HEVC(High Efficiency Video Coding)에 대한 표준화를 진행하고 있다. 차세대 비디오 코덱 HEVC는 H.264/AVC 표준보다 높은 압축률을 보이나, 매우 높은 인코더 계산 복잡도를 가지고 있다. HEVC 인코더의 계산 복잡도를 줄이기 위해서 이 논문에서는 고속 예측단위 결정방법을 제안한다. 제안된 고속 예측단위 결정방법은 현재 prediction unit의 양자화 된 0이 아닌 변환계수가 없으면 남은 prediction unit의 부호화를 생략하여 부호화 시간을 줄이는 방법이다. 제안된 방법은 인코더 계산 복잡도를 HM6.0대비 약 50.3%정도 향상시키나 동일한 수준의 코딩 효율을 유지한다.

Assessment of genomic prediction accuracy using different selection and evaluation approaches in a simulated Korean beef cattle population

  • Nwogwugwu, Chiemela Peter;Kim, Yeongkuk;Choi, Hyunji;Lee, Jun Heon;Lee, Seung-Hwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제33권12호
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    • pp.1912-1921
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    • 2020
  • Objective: This study assessed genomic prediction accuracies based on different selection methods, evaluation procedures, training population (TP) sizes, heritability (h2) levels, marker densities and pedigree error (PE) rates in a simulated Korean beef cattle population. Methods: A simulation was performed using two different selection methods, phenotypic and estimated breeding value (EBV), with an h2 of 0.1, 0.3, or 0.5 and marker densities of 10, 50, or 777K. A total of 275 males and 2,475 females were randomly selected from the last generation to simulate ten recent generations. The simulation of the PE dataset was modified using only the EBV method of selection with a marker density of 50K and a heritability of 0.3. The proportions of errors substituted were 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%, respectively. Genetic evaluations were performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP) with different weighted values. The accuracies of the predictions were determined. Results: Compared with phenotypic selection, the results revealed that the prediction accuracies obtained using GBLUP and ssGBLUP increased across heritability levels and TP sizes during EBV selection. However, an increase in the marker density did not yield higher accuracy in either method except when the h2 was 0.3 under the EBV selection method. Based on EBV selection with a heritability of 0.1 and a marker density of 10K, GBLUP and ssGBLUP_0.95 prediction accuracy was higher than that obtained by phenotypic selection. The prediction accuracies from ssGBLUP_0.95 outperformed those from the GBLUP method across all scenarios. When errors were introduced into the pedigree dataset, the prediction accuracies were only minimally influenced across all scenarios. Conclusion: Our study suggests that the use of ssGBLUP_0.95, EBV selection, and low marker density could help improve genetic gains in beef cattle.

이동통신기술과의 연관성을 고려한 차세대 이동통신서비스의 수요예측에 관한 연구 (A study on a forecasting the demand for the future mobile communication service by integrating the mobile communication technology)

  • 주영진;김선재
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 2003년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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    • pp.74-78
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we have developed a technology-service relationship model which describes the diffusion process of a group of services and relevant technologies, and have applied the developed model to the prediction of the number of subscribers to the next generation mobile service. The technology-service relationship model developed in this paper incorporates the developing process of relevant technologies, a supply-side factor, into the diffusion process of specific services, while many diffusion models and multi-generation diffusion models in previous researches are mainly reflect the demand-side factors. So, the proposed model could effectively applied to the telecommunication services where the developing of the relevant technologies are very essential to the service penetration. In our application, the proposed model provides a competitive substitution between the next generation mobile service and the traditional mobile service.

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복합발전 적용을 위한 1kW급 수평축 풍력터빈 유동해석 (Flow Analysis on a 1kW-class Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine Blade for Hybrid Power Generation System)

  • 이준용;최낙준;최영도
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국신재생에너지학회 2011년도 춘계학술대회 초록집
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    • pp.60.2-60.2
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    • 2011
  • This study is to develop a 1kW-class small wind turbine blade which will be applicable to relatively low speed regions. For this blade, a high efficiency wind turbine blade is designed and a light and low cost composite structure blade is adopted considering fatigue life. In this study, shape design of 1kW-class small wind turbine blade for hybrid power generation system is carried out by BEMT(blade element momentum theory). X-FOIL open software was used to acquire lift and drag coefficients of the 2D airfoils used in power prediction procedure. Moreover, pressure and velocity distributions are investigated according to TSR by CFD analysis.

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축류압축기의 Navier-Stokes설계를 위한 계산격자점 생성기법 연구 (Computational Grid Generation for Navier-Stokes Design of Axial-Flow Compressors)

  • 정희태
    • 한국전산유체공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산유체공학회 1997년도 추계 학술대회논문집
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    • pp.38-42
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    • 1997
  • A multiblock grid generation has been applied to a Navier-Stokes design procedure of a axial-flow compressors. A multiblock structure simplifies the creation of structured H-grids about complex turbomachinery geometries and facilitate the creation of a grid in the tip flow region. The numerical algorithm adopts the combination of the algebraic and elliptic method to create the internal grids efficiently and quickly. The input module is made of the results of the preliminary design, i.e., flow-path, aerodynamic conditions along the spanwise direction, and the blade profile data. The final grids generated from each module of the system are used as the preprocessor for the performance prediction of the sectional blade, the blade-stacking process and the three-dimensional flow simulation inside the blade passage. Application to the blade design of the LP compressor was demonstrated to be very reliable and practical in support of design activities. This customized system are coupled strongly with the design procedure of the turbomachinery cascades using the Navier-Stokes technique.

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