• Title/Summary/Keyword: Generation Prediction

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Development of Prediction Model for Greenhouse Control based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반의 온실 제어를 위한 예측모델 개발)

  • Kim, Sang Yeob;Park, Kyoung Sub;Lee, Sang Min;Heo, Byeong Mun;Ryu, Keun Ho
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.749-756
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we developed a prediction model for greenhouse control using machine learning technique. The prediction model was developed using measured data (2016) on greenhouse in the Protected Horticulture Research Institute. In order to improve the predictive performance of model and to ensure the reliability of data, the dimension of the data was reduced by correlation analysis. The dataset were divided into spring, summer, autumn, and winter considering the seasonal characteristics. An artificial neural network, recurrent neural network, and multiple regression model were constructed as a machine leaning based prediction model and evaluated by comparative analysis with real dataset. As a result, ANN showed good performance in selected dataset, while MRM showed good performance in full dataset.

Prediction of Short and Long-term PV Power Generation in Specific Regions using Actual Converter Output Data (실제 컨버터 출력 데이터를 이용한 특정 지역 태양광 장단기 발전 예측)

  • Ha, Eun-gyu;Kim, Tae-oh;Kim, Chang-bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.561-569
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    • 2019
  • Solar photovoltaic can provide electrical energy with only radiation, and its use is expanding rapidly as a new energy source. This study predicts the short and long-term PV power generation using actual converter output data of photovoltaic system. The prediction algorithm uses multiple linear regression, support vector machine (SVM), and deep learning such as deep neural network (DNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM). In addition, three models are used according to the input and output structure of the weather element. Long-term forecasts are made monthly, seasonally and annually, and short-term forecasts are made for 7 days. As a result, the deep learning network is better in prediction accuracy than multiple linear regression and SVM. In addition, LSTM, which is a better model for time series prediction than DNN, is somewhat superior in terms of prediction accuracy. The experiment results according to the input and output structure appear Model 2 has less error than Model 1, and Model 3 has less error than Model 2.

Methodology of Springback Prediction of Automotive Parts Applied 3rd Generation AHSS Using the Progressive Meta Model (프로그레시브 메타모델을 이용한 3세대 초고장력강판 적용 차체 부품의 스프링백 예측 방법론)

  • Yoon, J.I.;Oh, K.H.;Lee, S.R.;Yoo, J.H.;Kim, T.J.
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the methodology of the springback prediction of automotive parts applied 3rd generation AHSS was investigated using the response surface model analysis based on a regression model, and the meta model analysis based on a Kriging model. To design the learning data set for constructing the springback prediction models, and the experimental design was conducted at three levels for each processing variable using the definitive screening designs method. The hat-shaped member, which is the basic shape of the member parts, was selected and the springback values were measured for each processing type and processing variable using the finite element analysis. When the nonlinearity of the variables is small during the hat-shaped member forming, the response surface model and the meta model can provide the same processing parameter. However, the accuracy of the springback prediction of the meta model is better than the response surface model. Even in the case of the simple shape parts forming, the springback prediction accuracy of the meta model is better than that of the response surface model, when more variables are considered and the nonlinearity effect of the variables is large. The efficient global optimization algorithm-based Kriging is appropriate in resolving the high computational complexity optimization problems such as developing automotive parts.

Prediction of Internal Tube Bundle Failure in High Pressure Feedwater Heater for a Power Generation Boiler by the Operating Record Monitoring (운전기록 모니터링에 의한 발전보일러용 고압 급수가열기 내부 튜브의 파손예측)

  • Kim, Kyeong-seob;Yoo, Hoseon
    • Plant Journal
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.56-61
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the failure analysis of the internal tube occurred in the high pressure feedwater heater for power generation boiler of 500 MW supercritical pressure coal fired power plant was investigated. I suggested a prediction model that can diagnose internal tube failure by changing the position of level control valve on the shell side and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump. The suggested prediction model is demonstrated through additional cases of feedwater system unbalance. The simultaneous comparison of the shell side level control valve position and the suction flow rate of the boiler feedwater pump compared to the normal operating state value, even in the case of the high pressure feedwater heater for the power boiler, It can be a powerful prediction diagnosis.

Generation Characteristics and Prediction of Acid Rock Drainage(ARD) of Road Cut Slopes (건설현장 절취사면의 산성배수 발생특성과 잠재적 산발생능력 평가)

  • Lee, Gyoo-Ho;Kim, Jae-Gon;Lee, Jin-Soo;Chon, Chul-Min;Park, Sam-Gyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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    • 2005.03a
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    • pp.491-498
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    • 2005
  • Acid Rock Drainage(ARD) is the product formed by the atmospheric(i.e. by water, oxygen and carbon dioxide) oxidation of the relatively common iron-sulphur minerals pyrite($FeS_2$). ARD causes the acidification and heavy metal contamination of water and soil and the reduction of slope stability. In this study the generation characteristics and the prediction of ARD of various road cut slopes were studied. An attempt to classify the rocks into several groups according to their acid generation potentials was made. Acid Base Accounting(ABA) tests, commonly used as a screening tool in ARD predictions, were performed. Sixteen rock samples were classified into PAF(potentially acid forming) group and four rock samples into NAF(non-acid forming) group. The chemical analysis of water samples strongly suggested that ARD with high content of heavy metals and low pH could pollute the ground water and/or stream water.

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Control strategies of energy storage limiting intermittent output of solar power generation: Planning and evaluation for participation in electricity market

  • Sewan Heo;Jinsoo Han;Wan-Ki Park
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.636-649
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    • 2023
  • Renewable energy generation cannot be consistently predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is currently not widely used in the electricity market, which requires dependable production. In this study, reliability- and variance-based controls of energy storage strategies are proposed to utilize renewable energy as a steady contributor to the electricity market. For reliability-based control, photovoltaic (PV) generation is assumed to be registered in the power generation plan. PV generation yields a reliable output using energy storage units to compensate for PV prediction errors. We also propose a runtime state-ofcharge management method for sustainable operations. With variance-based controls, changes in rapid power generation are limited through ramp rate control. This study introduces new reliability and variance indices as indicators for evaluating these strategies. The reliability index quantifies the degree to which the actual generation realizes the plan, and the variance index quantifies the degree of power change. The two strategies are verified based on simulations and experiments. The reliability index improved by 3.1 times on average over 21 days at a real power plant.

Forecasting of Short-term Wind Power Generation Based on SVR Using Characteristics of Wind Direction and Wind Speed (풍향과 풍속의 특징을 이용한 SVR기반 단기풍력발전량 예측)

  • Kim, Yeong-ju;Jeong, Min-a;Son, Nam-rye
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.1085-1092
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    • 2017
  • In this paper, we propose a wind forecasting method that reflects wind characteristics to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. The proposed method consists of extracting wind characteristics and predicting power generation. The part that extracts the characteristics of the wind uses correlation analysis of power generation amount, wind direction and wind speed. Based on the correlation between the wind direction and the wind speed, the feature vector is extracted by clustering using the K-means method. In the prediction part, machine learning is performed using the SVR that generalizes the SVM so that an arbitrary real value can be predicted. Machine learning was compared with the proposed method which reflects the characteristics of wind and the conventional method which does not reflect wind characteristics. To verify the accuracy and feasibility of the proposed method, we used the data collected from three different locations of Jeju Island wind farm. Experimental results show that the error of the proposed method is better than that of general wind power generation.

Kalman Filtering-based Traffic Prediction for Software Defined Intra-data Center Networks

  • Mbous, Jacques;Jiang, Tao;Tang, Ming;Fu, Songnian;Liu, Deming
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2964-2985
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    • 2019
  • Global data center IP traffic is expected to reach 20.6 zettabytes (ZB) by the end of 2021. Intra-data center networks (Intra-DCN) will account for 71.5% of the data center traffic flow and will be the largest portion of the traffic. The understanding of traffic distribution in IntraDCN is still sketchy. It causes significant amount of bandwidth to go unutilized, and creates avoidable choke points. Conventional transport protocols such as Optical Packet Switching (OPS) and Optical Burst Switching (OBS) allow a one-sided view of the traffic flow in the network. This therefore causes disjointed and uncoordinated decision-making at each node. For effective resource planning, there is the need to consider joining the distributed with centralized management which anticipates the system's needs and regulates the entire network. Methods derived from Kalman filters have proved effective in planning road networks. Considering the network available bandwidth as data transport highways, we propose an intelligent enhanced SDN concept applied to OBS architecture. A management plane (MP) is added to conventional control (CP) and data planes (DP). The MP assembles the traffic spatio-temporal parameters from ingress nodes, uses Kalman filtering prediction-based algorithm to estimate traffic demand. Prior to packets arrival at edges nodes, it regularly forwards updates of resources allocation to CPs. Simulations were done on a hybrid scheme (1+1) and on the centralized OBS. The results demonstrated that the proposition decreases the packet loss ratio. It also improves network latency and throughput-up to 84 and 51%, respectively, versus the traditional scheme.

A supervised-learning-based spatial performance prediction framework for heterogeneous communication networks

  • Mukherjee, Shubhabrata;Choi, Taesang;Islam, Md Tajul;Choi, Baek-Young;Beard, Cory;Won, Seuck Ho;Song, Sejun
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.42 no.5
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    • pp.686-699
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose a supervised-learning-based spatial performance prediction (SLPP) framework for next-generation heterogeneous communication networks (HCNs). Adaptive asset placement, dynamic resource allocation, and load balancing are critical network functions in an HCN to ensure seamless network management and enhance service quality. Although many existing systems use measurement data to react to network performance changes, it is highly beneficial to perform accurate performance prediction for different systems to support various network functions. Recent advancements in complex statistical algorithms and computational efficiency have made machine-learning ubiquitous for accurate data-based prediction. A robust network performance prediction framework for optimizing performance and resource utilization through a linear discriminant analysis-based prediction approach has been proposed in this paper. Comparison results with different machine-learning techniques on real-world data demonstrate that SLPP provides superior accuracy and computational efficiency for both stationary and mobile user conditions.