• 한국입자에어로졸학회지
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2011

The objective of the study was to investigate the main factors that contribute the variation of $PM_{10}$ concentration of Seoul and to quantify their effects using generalized additive model (GAM). The analysis was performed with 3 year air pollution data (2004~2006) measured at 27 urban sites and 7 roadside sites in Seoul, a background site in Gangwha and a rural site in Pocheon. The diurnal variation of urban $PM_{10}$ concentrations of Seoul showed a typical bimodal pattern with the same peak times as that of roadside, and the maximum difference of $PM_{10}$ level between urban and roadside was about $14{\mu}g/m^{3}$ at 10 in the morning. The wind direction was found to be a major factor that affects $PM_{10}$ level in all investigated areas. The overall $PM_{10}$ level was reduced when air came from east, but background $PM_{10}$ level in Gangwha was rather higher than the urban $PM_{10}$ level in Seoul, indicating that the $PM_{10}$ level in Gangwha is considerably influenced by that in Seoul metropolitan area. When hourly variations of $PM_{10}$ were analyzed using GAM, wind direction and speed explained about 34% of the variance in the model where the variables were added as a 2-dimensional smoothing function. In addition, other variables, such as diurnal variation, difference of concentrations between roadside and urban area, precipitation, month, and the regression slope of a plot of carbon monooxide versus $PM_{10}$, were found to be major explanatory variables, explaining about 64% of total variance of hourly variations of $PM_{10}$ in Seoul.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제30권7호
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• pp.573-584
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• 2021

To analyze the effects of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 on daily mortality cases, the relations of death counts from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases with PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 concentrations were applied to the generalized additive model (GAM) in this study. From the coefficients of the GAM model, the excessive mortality risks due to an increase of 10 ㎍/m³ in daily mean PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 for each cause were calculated. The excessive risks of deaths from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases were 0.64%, 1.69%, and 1.16%, respectively, owing to PM₁₀ increase and 0.42%, 2.80%, and 0.91%, respectively, owing to PM_2.5 increase. Our result showed that particulate matter posed a greater risk of death from respiratory diseases and is consistent with the cases in Europe and China. The regional distribution of excessive risk of death is 0.24%-0.81%, 0.34%-2.6%, and 0.62%-1.94% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM₁₀ increase, and 0.14%-1.02%, 1.07%-3.92%, and 0.22%-1.73% from natural causes, respiratory diseases, and cardiovascular diseases, respectively, owing to PM_2.5 increase. Our results represented a different aspect from the regional concentration distributions. Thus, we saw that the concentration distributions of air pollutants differ from the affected areas and identified the need for a policy to reduce damage rather than reduce concentrations.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.19-30
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• 2016

The projection of climate-related range shift is critical information for conservation planning of Korean fir (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson). We first modeled the distribution of Korean fir under current climate condition using five single-model species distribution models (SDMs) and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method and then predicted the distributions under future climate conditions projected with HadGEM2-AO under four $CO_2$ emission scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. We also investigated the predictive uncertainty stemming from five individual algorithms and four $CO_2$ emission scenarios for better interpretation of SDM projections. Five individual algorithms were Generalized linear model (GLM), Generalized additive model (GAM), Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), Generalized boosted model (GBM) and Random forest (RF). The results showed high variations of model performances among individual SDMs and the wide range of diverging predictions of future distributions of Korean fir in response to RCPs. The ensemble model presented the highest predictive accuracy (TSS = 0.97, AUC = 0.99) and predicted that the climate habitat suitability of Korean fir would increase under climate changes. Accordingly, the fir distribution could expand under future climate conditions. Increasing precipitation may account for increases in the distribution of Korean fir. Increasing precipitation compensates the negative effects of increasing temperature. However, the future distribution of Korean fir is also affected by other ecological processes, such as interactions with co-existing species, adaptation and dispersal limitation, and other environmental factors, such as extreme weather events and land-use changes. Therefore, we need further ecological research and to develop mechanistic and process-based distribution models for improving the predictive accuracy.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.43-56
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 AR(1) 과정을 따르는 시계열 모형에서 가산적 이상치(Additive Out-lier)가 존재하는 경우, 1차 자기상관계수에 대한 로버스트 추정방법으로 Rupport 와 Carroll (1980)에 의해 회귀모형에서 제안된 L-추정법 형태의 절사최소제곱추정 (PE 추정)방법을 제안하였다. 더불어 X축의 이상치에 대한 비중강하(down-weight)의 방법으로 Mallows의 가중함수를 고려한 유계영향 절사최소제곱 (bounded influence PE, BIPE)추정량을 제안하였으며 모의 실험을 통하여 각 추정량의 효율성을 비교하였다. 모의실험 결과, 다양한 자료의 오염률상에서 일반화 LAD추정치를 예비 추정치로 고려한 BIPE(LAD)-추정량의 효율이 좋은 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2007

This paper proposes a multimodal generalized Gaussian distribution (MGGD) to effectively model the varying statistical properties of the extrinsic information. A subsidiary maximum likelihood decoding (MLD) algorithm is subsequently developed to dynamically select the most suitable MGGD parameters to be used in the component maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoders at each decoding iteration to derive the more reliable metrics performance enhancement. Simulation results show that, for a wide range of block lengths, the proposed approach can enhance the overall turbo decoding performance for both parallel and serially concatenated codes in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN), Rician, and Rayleigh fading channels.

• Proceedings of the National Institute of Ecology of the Republic of Korea
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.74-82
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• 2020

Predictions of suitable habitat areas can provide important information pertaining to the risk assessment and management of alien plants at early stage of their establishment. Here, we predict the invasion potential of Muhlenbergia capillaris (pink muhly) in South Korea using five bioclimatic variables. We adopt four models (generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest (RF), and artificial neural network) for projection based on 630 presence and 600 pseudo-absence data points. The RF model yielded the highest performance. The presence probability of M. capillaris was highest within an annual temperature range of 12 to 24℃ and with precipitation from 800 to 1,300 mm. The occurrence of M. capillaris was positively associated with the precipitation of the driest quarter. The projection map showed that suitable areas for M. capillaris are mainly concentrated in the southern coastal regions of South Korea, where temperatures and precipitation are higher than in other regions, especially in the winter season. We can conclude that M. capillaris is not considered to be invasive based on a habitat suitability map. However, there is a possibility that rising temperatures and increasing precipitation levels in winter can accelerate the expansion of this plant on the Korean Peninsula.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제34권2호
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• pp.124-130
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• 2008

This study investigated the age dependencies in ambient air pollution-associated asthma hospitalization from 2003 to 2005 in Seoul. For all ages and the age groups of 0-14, 15-64, and 65+years, the Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks of daily asthma hospitalization associated with changes in particulate matter and ozone. The time-trends, seasonal variances, day effects, temperature, humidity, and pressure at sea level were controlled in the models. Significant associations were observed between asthma hospitalization and the levels of $PM_{10}$ and $O_3$. The relative risks (RRs) of asthma hospitalization for every 10 unit increases in $PM_{10}({\mu}g/m^3)$ and $O_3$(ppb) were 1.008 (95% CI 1.005-1.012), and 1.012 (95% CI 1.003-1.020), respectively. Evaluated over $10\;{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in $PM_{10}$, we found the relative risks of asthma hospitalization to be 1.009 (95% CI 1.004-1.014) in 0-14 age group, and 1.015 (95% CI 1.008-1.022) in 65+ age group. Considering 10 ppb increase in $O_3$, those were 1.014 (95% CI 1.003-1.024) in 0-14 age group, and 1.025 (95% CI 1.009-1.041) in 65+ age group. It was concluded that current levels of ambient air pollution in Seoul make a significant contribution to the variation in daily asthma hospitalization. Further reduction in air pollution is necessary to protect the health of the community, especially that of the higher risky groups including children and elderly population.

• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제35권1호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

This study assessed the relationships between levels of $PM_{10}$ and hospitalization rates for asthma among children from 2003 to 2005 at four major cities in Korea. In addition, we estimated the reduced number of asthma hospitalization associated with an ambient $PM_{10}$ improvement to the acceptable levels as recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was used to estimate the relative risks (RR) of asthma hospitalization associated with changes in $PM_{10}$ The RRs of children's asthma hospitalization for every $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increment in $PM_{10}$ were 1.009(95% CI = 1.004-1.014) in Seoul, 1.013(95% CI = 1.006-1.021) in Incheon, 1.009(95% CI = 1.002-1.016) in Busan, and 1.021(95% CI = 1.005-1.037) in Ulsan. We assessed $PM_{10}$ related health benefits from implementing the WHO's guidelines (24-hour average $50{\mu}g/m^3$) using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program. The estimated benefits were 439(95% CI = 216-666) reduced asthma hospitalization in Seoul, 720(95% CI = 304-1,151) in Incheon, 260(95% CI = 66-459) in Busan, and 126(95% CI = 30-228) in Ulsan. It was concluded that improving $PM_{10}$ condition to the WHO guideline would make a significant contribution to the reduction in asthma hospitalization among children. Therefore, public health measures are still needed to improve air quality in Korea.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.13-23
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• 2008

Objective: The current study was to test if the developed sphygmomanometer was working well and blood pressure information could be collected and monitored systematically through the internet. We tested if the sphygmomanometer and services for blood pressure controlled high blood pressure significantly and the ubiquitous monitoring could be used further. Methods: Kyungwon University, KT Co., Gil Medical Center, LIG Nex1 Co., and Sujeong Health Center conducted an ubiquitous high blood control project in Sujeong-gu, Sungnam, Korea from Mar. 5 to May 16. We developed and applied sphygmomanometer. We distributed the devices to 27 high blood pressure patients. The blood pressures of the residents were monitored through the internet when they measured blood pressures in their homes. A nurse monitored and consulted their blood pressures in the monitoring center in Kyungwon University during the demonstration period. The consultant called them and consulted on their blood pressures in few seconds they used the sphygmomanometers. For the significance of change in blood pressure, we tested statistically with Generalized Additive Model(GAM) and Multi-level Analysis. Results: Both GAM and Multi-level Analysis showed that the blood pressures of persons with ubiquitous blood pressure management decreased significantly as time passed. Conclusions: The internet monitoring and services are considered to be promising because most of the participants were satisfied especially because somebody was caring their health. The decrease of blood pressures was significant by GAM and Multi-level Analysis. Thus, we can apply ubiquitous blood pressure management to health promotion projects.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제26권
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• pp.9.1-9.9
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• 2011

Objectives: In order to evaluate which temperature index is the best predictor for the health impact assessment of heat stress in Korea, several indexes were compared. Methods: We adopted temperature, perceived temperature (PT), and apparent temperature (AT), as a heat stress index, and changes in the risk of death for Seoul and Daegu were estimated with $^1{\circ}C$ increases in those temperature indexes using generalized additive model (GAM) adjusted for the non-temperature related factors: time trends, seasonality, and air pollution. The estimated excess mortality and Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) due to the increased temperature indexes for the $75^{th}$ percentile in the summers from 2001 to 2008 were compared and analyzed to define the best predictor. Results: For Seoul, all-cause mortality presented the highest percent increase (2.99% [95% CI, 2.43 to 3.54%]) in maximum temperature while AIC showed the lowest value when the all-cause daily death counts were fitted with the maximum PT for the $75^{th}$ percentile of summer. For Daegu, all-cause mortality presented the greatest percent increase (3.52% [95% CI, 2.23 to 4.80%]) in minimum temperature and AIC showed the lowest value in maximum temperature. No lag effect was found in the association between temperature and mortality for Seoul, whereas for Daegu one-day lag effect was noted. Conclusions: There was no one temperature measure that was superior to the others in summer. To adopt an appropriate temperature index, regional meteorological characteristics and the disease status of population should be considered.