• Korean Journal of Legislative Studies
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.53-75
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• 2016

This article presents a descriptive analysis on national security policy platforms promoted by the ruling parties of South Korea during general and presidential elections. National security platforms made during the elections campaigns are a window that allows us to see how the ruling party perceives the threat environment, opportunity-structures, policy preferences and material capabilities faced by the state. South Korea presents a unique case since it faces constant military threats from North Korea and interacts with China and the United States. Therefore, the national security policy platforms, which are explicitly campaigned during the general and presidential elections, showcases the worldview of the ruling party. The study essentially focuses on three areas of the platforms - its threat perception on North Korea, the ROK-US alliance and the future vision for the Korean peninsula by covering two presidential elections and three general elections for the last 20 years.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.147-165
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• 1992

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of elections on the Korean economy and their future ramifications. It measures the shocks to the Korean economy caused by elections by taking the average of sample forecast errors from four major elections held in the 1980s. The seven variables' Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model which includes the Monetary Base, Industrial Production, Consumption, Consumer Price, Exports, and Investment is based on the quarterly time series data starting from 1970 and is updated every quarter before forecasts are made for the next quarter. Because of this updating of coefficients, which reflects in part the rapid structural changes of the Korean economy, this study can capture the shock effect of elections, which is not possible when using election dummies with a fixed coefficient model. In past elections, especially the elections held in the 1980s, $M_2$ did not show any particular movement, but the currency and base money increased during the quarter of the election was held and the increment was partly recalled in the next quarter. The liquidity of interest rates as measured by corporate bond yields fell during the quarter the election and then rose in the following quarter, which is somewhat contrary to the general concern that interest rates will increase during election periods. Manufacturing employment fell in the quarter of the election because workers turned into campaigners. This decline in employment combined with voting holiday produce a sizeable decline in industrial production during the quarter in which elections are held, but production catches up in the next quarter and sometimes more than offsets the disruption caused during the election quarter. The major shocks to price occur in the previous quarter, reflecting the expectational effect and the relaxation of government price control before the election when we simulate the impulse responses of the VAR model, imposing the same shocks that was measured in the past elections for each election to be held in 1992 and assuming that the elections in 1992 will affect the economy in the same manner as in the 1980s elections, 1992 is expected to see a sizeable increase in monetary base due to election and prices increase pressure will be amplified substantially. On the other hand, the consumption increase due to election is expected to be relatively small and the production will not decrease. Despite increased liquidity, a large portion of liquidity in circulation being used as election funds will distort the flow of funds and aggravate the fund shortage causing investments in plant and equipment and construction activities to stagnate. These effects will be greatly amplified if elections for the head of local government are going to be held this year. If mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held after National Assembly elections, their effect on prices and investment will be approximately double what they normally will have been have only congressional and presidential elections been held. Even when mayoral and gubernatorial elections are held at the same time as congressional elections, the elections of local government heads are shown to add substantial effects to the economy for the year. The above results are based on the assumption that this year's elections will shock the economy in the same manner as in past elections. However, elections in consecutive quarters do not give the economy a chance to pause and recuperate from past elections. This year's elections may have greater effects on prices and production than shown in the model's simulations because campaigners' return to industry may be delayed. Therefore, we may not see a rapid recall of money after elections. In view of the surge in the monetary base and price escalation in the periods before and after elections, economic management in 1992 should place its first priority on controlling the monetary aggregate, in particular, stabilizing the growth of the monetary base.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.28 no.4
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• pp.197-221
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• 2018

The Cambodian People's Party swept all 125 assembly seats with 76.78% of the vote in 2018 general elections. The Cambodian National Rescue Party, having been dissolved by court, was excluded from the election and attempted to nullify the legitimacy of the election by demanding its supporters to boycott the election. The Cambodian People's Party launched a campaign encouraging to vote in a desperate need to thwart the boycott movement. The election then became an unprecedented kind of competition the winner of which is decided not by the percentage of the vote but by turnout. The Cambodian People's Party was the winner with the high turnout of 82.89%, securing the means to defend the legitimacy of the election. The potential supporters of the Cambodian National Rescue Party spread out with about a million voters switching to support the Cambodian People's Party. Over a half million invalid votes that unequivocally voiced opposition to the Cambodian People's Party were not sufficient to deny the legitimacy of the election. Having experienced the fierce competition in the 2013 general elections that threatened to end its rule, the Cambodian People's Party decided to secure its power in the upcoming election and executed a tactic designed to remove the rival party through legal means. Competition being removed, the Cambodian political system decayed back to hegemonic electoral authoritarianism from competitive electoral authoritarianism to which it had mad gradual progress through the general elections in the past.

• The Southeast Asian review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.45-87
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• 2014

This study traces the possibility of political change in the Malaysian electoral history, especially by focusing on the 13th general election held in May 2013. The results of the 13th general election was another turning point in the history of Malaysia's electoral politics. Following after the 12th general election held in 2008, opposition coalition(PR) achieves a remarkable electoral result by obtaining over 50% of the total votes. Opposition parties also successfully collapsed the ruling coalition(BN)'s two-third majority in parliamentary. It was de-facto defeat of the ruling coalition and victory of the opposition coalition. More precisely, the 2013 election results show that the reformasi movement, which was active in 1998-99 period, are still alive and its impact on Malaysian electoral politics get stronger. Malaysia has long been considered as a typical electoral authoritarian regime since its independence in 1957. It is because that there has been negative relations between electoral politics and political change through out its electoral history. As shown in the most recent two general elections held in 2008 and 2013, however, Malaysia's hegemonic political system can be possibly changed through electoral politics. This article examines the detailed results of the series of post-reformarsi general elections(1999, 2004, 2008, 2013) and its political implications towards the nexus of electoral politics and political change under the electoral authoritarian regime in Malaysia.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.257-267
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• 2000

The purpose of this study is to analyse the economic effects of General Elections in Korea, in other words, to test the Political Business Cycle hypothesis using ARIMA-Intervention Analysis.

• Survey Research
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.81-104
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• 2007

This paper discusses the central issues of election studies and in this contort, suggests the panel survey method as an alternative to general opinion surveys. In doing so, it also explains the advantages and benefits that a panel survey provides, and discusses the weakness of the 2006 panel survey. East Asia Institutes, constructing the consortium which includes JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Hankook Research, traces the change in voting decisions during the 2006 Korean Local Elections. Four regional panels, focusing on the gubernatorial elections in Seoul, Pusan, Kwangju, and Chungnam, enable researchers to study the critical issues of election studies such as the causal relations among a set of voting determinants, the impact of campaigns, and the characteristics of floating voters.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.12 no.12
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• pp.25-33
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• 2021

Purpose: This paper estimates the impact of the epidemic crisis on election outcomes through investigating the effect of Covid19 crisis on election results of 21st General Election held in April 15th 2020 in Korea. Research design, data and methodology: This study employs Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using district-level data from Seoul and Gyeonggi province available at National election data in Korea. Results: Despite the current crisis in Korea, Covid-19 has had positive effects on voter turnout on average, after controlling for other factors. On the other hand, the effect of Covid-19 on the voter turnout was negative in districts with a larger aging population and higher health insurance premiums. In addition, Covid-19 negatively impacted vote shares for the incumbent party, while its rival party saw gains in their votes. Conclusion: The effect of Covid-19 election outcomes in Korea is distinct from other countries due to the nationwide acknowledgment of the Korean government's achievement in managing the epidemic. This implies that the crisis management ability of a government is crucial in gaining support for an incumbent party in future elections. Countries facing upcoming elections need to implement acceptable Covid-19 restriction policies as well as economic support for compensation to reap similar benefits.

• Survey Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.57-72
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• 2009

In Korea, telephone surveys have been used in election forecasting since 1992. In some elections, predictions were excellent, but in some elections, the predictions based on telephone surveys were not good. So, exit polls have been used along with the telephone surveys in predicting election outcomes since 2001 by the major broadcasting networks. Though telephone surveys, in general, have been less accurate than exit polls in election forecasting from 2000 to 2003, they were more accurate in the 2004 General Election than the exit polls. All predictions on the winners by the telephone surveys turned out to be accurate. But such success has not persisted. In the 2008 General Election, the telephone surveys was less accurate than the exit polls and actually its accuracy fell clown to the level of the 2000 General Election. This paper tried to find out. the factors responsible for the fluctuation of the accuracy of telephone polls.

• Asian Journal for Public Opinion Research
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.41-62
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• 2017

The political reformation in Indonesia is a determinant factor of the change in political communications and the roles of media. Currently, the political elites need media support, since it contextually has a significant role. Whoever has a good relationship with the media, will be loved by the public. On the other hand, the media also have a vested interest in the elite in running businesses and building the power of industry. Policies and capital pose a challenge to maintaining the continuity of the media. Independence and control of media are at stake, when the interests of the media and the elite collaborate with each other and then build a benefit on both sides. Meanwhile, the role of social media also cannot be neglected. The Indonesian political communication system is characterized by the presence of social media in a pseudo-relationship between the elite and the public. This paper tries to explain the growing trends of research in the academic environment and the research trends in political practice in Indonesia after the occurrence of post-reformation era in legislative and executive elections. The method used is the meta-analysis of research outcomes of university (dissertations) and secondary data sources. Data processing is done by meta-analysis of secondary data. The results of meta-analysis research indicate that, the objective conditions, in Indonesia, especially the political conditions, stimulate new spaces in communication research. The study of political communication becomes dominant in the academic environment. In addition, communication research is also characterized by a shift from the linear perspective (positivistic paradigm) to the interactive perspective (naturalistic paradigm). On the other hand, the development of politic and governance situations in Indonesia has prompted the establishment of polling agencies that help citizens understand the maps of political power and candidates in general elections and regional head elections.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.301-307
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• 2022

Today, each broadcasting station makes the best use of CG (computer Graphics), which is the latest technology in election broadcasting, and competes to attract the eyes of viewers. This paper investigated the history of CG technology and design transitions in election ballot counting broadcasts from the perspective of CG designers. From the 1980s, when computer-based election ballot counting began, to the full-scale use of virtual studios, the image and technology produced by CG while watching the ballot-counting broadcast video of general elections, presidential elections, and local elections. We analyzed the utilization from various angles. In Korea, we started with the EDDS (Election Data Display System) developed in-house, created a database using a computer, and introduced manual animation CG every day from that time. After that, broadcasting stations focused on diverse and gorgeous CG image competition, and CG images were expanded from 2D to 3D while technology and design developed together. From 1985 to 1992, Korean broadcasting can be seen as a transitional period in which the image changes due to the emphasis on information power while utilizing digital technology.