• Title/Summary/Keyword: GROWTH PREDICTION MODEL

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Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

A Study on the Time-Sectional Analysis of Apartment Housing related research in Korea (국내 아파트 관련 연구의 연구주제 시계열 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Sok;Park, Jong-Mo;Park, Eu-Gene;Han, Dong-Suk
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2018
  • Currently, apartments have become an important research subject for the overall area of politics, economics, and culture as well as urban architectural study. However, there are few analyses of the research trends related to the current interest in the apartment research and prediction of the future changes of an apartment in politics and industry. In this study, the research information related to the apartment has classified, and the changes in the research trends have analyzed. Based on the classified data, the first thesis and dissertation related to the apartment and changes of academic notation have discovered. In addition, future interests and future research directions through Frequency of Appearance, Degree Centrality Analysis, and Betweenness Centrality Analysis of author keywords were predicted. As a result of the analysis, 'Space,' 'Residential Mobility' and 'Apartment Complex' studies were found to be important research topics throughout the entire period. 'Han Gang Apartment,' 'Small Size Apartment,' 'Civic Apartments,' 'Jamsil,' and 'Child' were newly interested topics until 70's era. '(Super) High-rise Apartment,' 'Perception,' 'Jugong Apartment,' 'Housing Environment,' 'Housewife,' 'Apartment Layout,' and 'Busan' were newly interested topics during the 80's and 90's era. 'Apartment Price,' 'Energy,' 'Remodeling,' 'Noise,' 'Resident Satisfaction,' 'Community,' and 'Apartment Lotting-out' were newly interested topics after the year 2000. New concerns for last decade are found to be 'Super High-rise Apartment', 'Remodeling', 'Indoor'(2007), 'Apartment Reconstruction Project', 'Brand', 'AHP', 'Housing Environment'(2008), 'Ventilation'(2009), 'Apartment Lotting-out'(2010), 'Economic Assessment'(2011), 'Cost'(2012), 'Green Building', 'Apartment Sales', 'Law', 'Society'(2013), 'Floor Impact Noise', 'Seoul'(2014), 'Noise'(2015), 'Hedonic Model'(2016). In addition, following research topics are expected to be active in the future: In maturity stage of the research development is going to be 'Apartment Price', 'Space', 'Management of Apartment Housing'; the hedonic model, which is research growth and development stage, is going to be '(Floor Impact) Noise', 'Community', 'Energy.

Prediction of Chinese Cabbage Yield as Affected by Planting Date and Nitrogen Fertilization for Spring Production (정식시기와 질소시비 수준에 따른 봄배추의 생육량 추정)

  • Lee, Sang Gyu;Seo, Tae Cheol;Jang, Yoon Ah;Lee, Jun Gu;Nam, Chun Woo;Choi, Chang Sun;Yeo, Kyung-Hwan;Um, Young Chul
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.271-275
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    • 2012
  • The average annual and winter ambient air temperatures in Korea have risen by $0.7^{\circ}C$ and $1.4^{\circ}C$, respectively, during the last 30 years. The continuous rise in temperature presents a challenge in growing certain horticultural crops. Chinese cabbage, one most important cool season crop, may well be used as a model to study the influence of climate change on plant growth, because it is more adversely affected by elevated temperatures than warm season crops. This study examined the influence of transplanting time, nitrogen fertilizer level and climate parameters, including air temperature and growing degree days (GDD), on the performance of a Chinese cabbage cultivar (Chunkwang) during the spring growing season to estimate crop yield under the unfavorable environmental conditions. The chinese cabbage plants were transplanted from Apr. 8 to May 13, 2011 when 3~4 leaves were occurred, at internals of 7 days and cultivated with 3 levels of nitrogen fertilization. The data from plants transplanted on Apr. 22 and 29, 2012 were used for the prediction of yield as affected by planting date and nitrogen fertilization for spring production. In our study, plant dry weight was higher when the seedlings were transplanted on 15th (168 g) than on 22nd (139 g) of April. There was no significant difference in the yield when plants were grown with different levels of nitrogen fertilizer. The values of correlation coefficient ($R^2$) between GDD and number of leaves, and between GDD and dry weight of the above-ground plant parts were 0.9818 and 0.9584, respectively. Nitrogen fertilizer did not provide a good correlation with the plant growth. Results of this study suggest that the GDD values can be used as a good indicator in predicting the top biomass yield of Chinese cabbage.

Study on the Treesize Prediction Model : A case study of Zelkova serrata, Pinus strobus and Magnolia denudata (주요조경수목의 크기 예측 " 모델 "에 관한 연구 : 느티나무, 스트로브잣나무, 백목련을 대상으로)

  • 김남춘;최준수;문석기
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 1988
  • Size characteristics of three widely used landscape trees were analized to establish a methodology of size prediction as time Passes. Tree height, tree width, stem diameter(breast or surface), canopy length and tree age were measured directly and indirectly(by using photograph), and the data were analized by using regression analysis through PC-SAS. The results are summarized as follows : 1. Zelkova serrata MAKINO showed relatively slow growth rate and the tree form was changed as aged. Size predictions were available by using the regression equations listed below : Surface diameter = 0.8293 x AGE Tree height = 0.4109(0.8293 x AGE) - 0.0039(0.7273 x AGE)$^2$Tree width = 0.3240(0.8293 x AGE) - 0.0024(0.1293 x AGE)$^2$Canopy length = 0.1337(0.8293 x AGE) - 0.0020(0.7293 x AGE)$^2$2. Pinus strobus L. showed relatively fast growth rate and the tree form did not change much as aged. Size predictions were available by using the regression equations listed below. Breast diameter = 0.756 x AGE Tree height = 0.7695(0.756 x AGE) - 0.0164(0.75\ulcorner x AGE)$^2$Tree width = 0.4331(0.756 x AGE) - 0.0079(0.75\ulcorner x AGE)$^2$Canopy length = 0.1365(0.756 x AGE) - 0.0032(0.75f x AGE)$^2$ 3. In case of Magnolia denudata DESROUX, tree form was determined relatively earlier than the other two species. Si2e predictions were available by using the regression equations listed below : Surface diameter = 0.88 x AGE Tree height = 0.5412(0.88 x AGE) - 0.0110(0.88 x AGE)$^2$ Tree width = 0.3752(0.88 x AGE) - 7.0061(0.88 x AGE)$^2$Canopy length = 0.1110(0.88 x AGE) - 0.0022(0.88 x AGE)$^2$ This study aimed to find a way to predict size change of landscaping plants. This methodology will be applied to a wide range of landscape plants to provide practical data to landscape designers.

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The Influence of Webtoon Usage Motivation and Theory of Planned Behavior on Intentions to Use Webtoon: Comparison between movie viewing, switching to paid content, and intention for buying character products (웹툰 이용동기와 계획행동이론 변인이 웹툰 관련 행동의도에 미치는 영향: 영화관람, 유료 콘텐츠 전환시 이용, 캐릭터 상품 구매의도의 비교)

  • Lee, Jeong Ki;Lee, You Jin;Kim, Byung Gue;Kim, Bo Mi;Choi, Sun Ryul;Koo, Ja Young;Koleva, Vanya Slavche
    • Korean Journal of Communication Studies
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.89-121
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    • 2014
  • In order to suggest a strategy for continuous growth of webtoon, this article examined webtoon usage motivation and tried to make a prediction about culture content products and services connected with webtoon, including intention for viewing movies, based on webtoon; intention for switching to paid webtoon content, and intention for buying webtoon character products. From the point of view of Uses and Gratification Theory intentions for using webtoon and human sociocultural behavior intention are already predicted but with the usefulness of Theory of Planned Behavior Integrated Model this study extended the explanation power of prediction about webtoon related behavioral intention. Results found 5 motivational factors for webtoon usage i.e. 'seeking information', 'entertainment and access availability', 'webtoon genre characteristics', 'influence from a friend or acquaintance', and 'escapism and tension release'. Among them the ones that influenced the intention for viewing movies, based on webtoon, were found to be 'webtoon genre characteristics', 'escapism and tension release' and the 3 variables from Theory of Planned Behavior. 'Seeking information', 'entertainment and access availability', 'webtoon genre characteristics', and all the 3 variables from Theory of Planned Behavior were found to influence the intention for switching to paid webtoon content. The intention for buying webtoon based character products was affected by the motivational factors 'seeking information', 'escapism and tension release' and the behavior and subjective norms variables from Theory of Planned Behavior. Based on the uncommon results from the research several suggestions were made for the continuous growth of webtoon.

Earnings Management of Firms Selected as Preliminary Unicorn (예비유니콘 선정기업의 이익조정에 대한 연구)

  • HAKJUN, HAN;DONGHOON, YANG
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.173-188
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    • 2023
  • This paper analyzed the Earnings management of firms selected as preliminary Unicorn. If a manager is selected as a preliminary unicorn firm, he can receive financial support of up to 20 billion won, creating a factor in managing the manager's earnings. The motive for management's earnings management is related to the capital market. Accounting information is used by investors and financial analysts, and corporate profits affect corporate value. Therefore, if the accounting earning is adjusted upward, the corporate value will be raised and investment conditions will be favorable. In this paper, earnings quality was measured by the modified Jones model of Dechow et al.(1995) by the ROA control model of Kothari et al.(2005) among the discretionary accruals estimated using an alternative accrual prediction model. Competing similar companies in the same market as the selected companies were formed, and the discretionary accruals were mutually compared to verify the research hypotheses, and only the selected companies were analyzed for the audit year and after the audit year. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the companies selected as preliminary unicorns had higher earnings management compared to the corresponding companies in question, which had a negative impact on the quality of accounting profits. It was found that the companies selected as preliminary unicorns continued to receive incentives for management's earnings management even after being selected. These results indicate that the companies selected as prospective unicorns are recognized for their value in the market through external growth rather than internal growth, and thus, incentives for management's earnings management to attract investment from external investors under favorable conditions are continuing. In the future preliminary unicorn selection evaluation, it was possible to present what needs to be reviewed on the quality of accounting earning. The implication of this paper is that the factors of management's earnings management eventually hinder investors and creditors from judging the reliability of accounting information. It was suggested that a policy alternative for the K-Unicorn Project, which enhances reliability were presented by reflecting the evaluation of earnings quality through discretionary accruals.

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Assessment and Prediction of Stand Yield in Cryptomeria japonica Stands (삼나무 임분수확량 평가 및 예측)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Kang, Jin Taek;Hwang, Jeong Sun;Park, Hyun;Lee, Kang Su
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2015
  • The objective of this paper is to look into the growth of Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea along with the evaluation on their yields, followed by their carbon stocks and removals. A total of 106 sample plots were selected from Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and Jeju, where the groups of standard are grown. We only used 92 plots data except outlier. As part of the analysis, the Weibull diameter distribution was applied. In order to estimate the diameter distribution, the growth estimation equation for each of the growth factors including the height, the diameter at breast height, and the basal area was drafted out and the verification for each equation was examined. The site index for figuring out the forest productivity of Cryptomeria japonica stand for each district was also developed as a Schumacher model and 30yr was used as a reference age for the estimation of the site index. It was found that the site index for Cryptomeria japonica stand in South Korea ranges from 10 to 16 and this result was used as a standard for developing the stand yield table. According to the site 14 in the stand yield table, the mean annual increment (MAI) of the Cryptomeria japonica reaches $7.6m^3/ha$ on its 25yr and its growing stock is estimated to be at $190.1m^3/ha$. This volume is about $20m^3$ as high as that of the Chamaesyparis obtusa. Furthermore, the annual carbon absorptions for a Cryptomeria japonica stand reached the peak at 25yr, which is 2.14 tC/ha/yr, $7.83tCO_2/ha/yr$. When compared to the other conifers, this rate is slightly higher than that of a Chamaecyparis obtusa ($7.5tCO_2/ha/yr$) but lower than that of the Pinus koraiensis ($10.4tCO_2/ha/yr$) and Larix kaempferi ($11.2tCO_2/ha/yr$). With such research result as a base, it is necessary to come up with the ways to enhance the utilization of Cryptomeria japonica as timbers, besides making use of their growth data.

Utilization of Smart Farms in Open-field Agriculture Based on Digital Twin (디지털 트윈 기반 노지스마트팜 활용방안)

  • Kim, Sukgu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2023.04a
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    • pp.7-7
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    • 2023
  • Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.

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A Study on the Evaluative Models and Indicators for Diagnosis of Urban Visual Landscape - Focusing on Seoul City - (도시경관 진단을 위한 평가모델 및 지표개발 연구 - 서울시를 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Seung-Ju;Im, Seung-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.78-86
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    • 2009
  • Recently, there seems to besome problems in the urban visual landscape as a result of continuous economic growth and industrial development. At the same time, the public has begun to be aware of the importance of visual resources, and the necessity for visual landscape conservation and improvement. Therefore, the development of evaluative indicators for systematic visual landscape planning and design is urgent. The purpose ofthis study is to discover evaluative models and indicators for the diagnosis of urban visual landscapes. This study included the selection of 18 physical indicators(statistical data) by literature reviews, adoption of field and questionnaire surveys at 12 autonomous districts in Seoul and surrounding major mountain valleys and river streams(i.e. Mt. Nam and Han-River). The content of the questionnaire is scenic beauty. Moreover, the linear regression analysis between the scenic beauty mean scores and the physical indicator scores figure out the scenic beauty prediction model. As this study suggests, the most important indicators in urban visual landscapes are 'Greens', 'Park' and 'the number of apartment buildings(higher than 20 stories).' Based on the results, greens and parks should be priority elements to considerin urban landscape planning and design. Moreover, since the number of apartment buildings that are higher than 20 stories has a negative correlation with the scenic beauty score, it can be used as basic data for landscape planning. For the scenic beauty prediction models and evaluative indicators suggest a direction of urban management, each indicator becomes basic data for visual landscape planning and design. In following studies, if physical indicators and case studies are added, the scenic beauty prediction models and evaluative indicators could be more synthetic and systematic. Moreover, the development of physical indicators in three dimensions(3D)(i.e. results from visual district analysis, view surface analysis) could be expected to obtain more general and varied results.

Development of a complex failure prediction system using Hierarchical Attention Network (Hierarchical Attention Network를 이용한 복합 장애 발생 예측 시스템 개발)

  • Park, Youngchan;An, Sangjun;Kim, Mintae;Kim, Wooju
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2020
  • The data center is a physical environment facility for accommodating computer systems and related components, and is an essential foundation technology for next-generation core industries such as big data, smart factories, wearables, and smart homes. In particular, with the growth of cloud computing, the proportional expansion of the data center infrastructure is inevitable. Monitoring the health of these data center facilities is a way to maintain and manage the system and prevent failure. If a failure occurs in some elements of the facility, it may affect not only the relevant equipment but also other connected equipment, and may cause enormous damage. In particular, IT facilities are irregular due to interdependence and it is difficult to know the cause. In the previous study predicting failure in data center, failure was predicted by looking at a single server as a single state without assuming that the devices were mixed. Therefore, in this study, data center failures were classified into failures occurring inside the server (Outage A) and failures occurring outside the server (Outage B), and focused on analyzing complex failures occurring within the server. Server external failures include power, cooling, user errors, etc. Since such failures can be prevented in the early stages of data center facility construction, various solutions are being developed. On the other hand, the cause of the failure occurring in the server is difficult to determine, and adequate prevention has not yet been achieved. In particular, this is the reason why server failures do not occur singularly, cause other server failures, or receive something that causes failures from other servers. In other words, while the existing studies assumed that it was a single server that did not affect the servers and analyzed the failure, in this study, the failure occurred on the assumption that it had an effect between servers. In order to define the complex failure situation in the data center, failure history data for each equipment existing in the data center was used. There are four major failures considered in this study: Network Node Down, Server Down, Windows Activation Services Down, and Database Management System Service Down. The failures that occur for each device are sorted in chronological order, and when a failure occurs in a specific equipment, if a failure occurs in a specific equipment within 5 minutes from the time of occurrence, it is defined that the failure occurs simultaneously. After configuring the sequence for the devices that have failed at the same time, 5 devices that frequently occur simultaneously within the configured sequence were selected, and the case where the selected devices failed at the same time was confirmed through visualization. Since the server resource information collected for failure analysis is in units of time series and has flow, we used Long Short-term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning algorithm that can predict the next state through the previous state. In addition, unlike a single server, the Hierarchical Attention Network deep learning model structure was used in consideration of the fact that the level of multiple failures for each server is different. This algorithm is a method of increasing the prediction accuracy by giving weight to the server as the impact on the failure increases. The study began with defining the type of failure and selecting the analysis target. In the first experiment, the same collected data was assumed as a single server state and a multiple server state, and compared and analyzed. The second experiment improved the prediction accuracy in the case of a complex server by optimizing each server threshold. In the first experiment, which assumed each of a single server and multiple servers, in the case of a single server, it was predicted that three of the five servers did not have a failure even though the actual failure occurred. However, assuming multiple servers, all five servers were predicted to have failed. As a result of the experiment, the hypothesis that there is an effect between servers is proven. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that the prediction performance was superior when the multiple servers were assumed than when the single server was assumed. In particular, applying the Hierarchical Attention Network algorithm, assuming that the effects of each server will be different, played a role in improving the analysis effect. In addition, by applying a different threshold for each server, the prediction accuracy could be improved. This study showed that failures that are difficult to determine the cause can be predicted through historical data, and a model that can predict failures occurring in servers in data centers is presented. It is expected that the occurrence of disability can be prevented in advance using the results of this study.