• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.58-67
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• 2014

If we compare the GDP per Capita for the last 20 years between Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Philippines remains in the lowest on GDP per Capita. This paper is trying to find out the possible reasons for the low growth rate of the GDP per Capita in the Philippines. 53 years data from the World Bank are used explore the relationships between the GDP per Capita and eight economic indicators to run three time series models and one to one regression. Three indicators, namely, consumer price index, gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP and population are remarked with possible contribution to the low growth rate of the GDP per capita of the Philippines.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2017

This study analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Gini coefficient (market income), the deciles income inequality index and per capita real GDP were analyzed. Furthermore, various cointegration tests were tried to improve the reliability of the test results. From the weak exogeniety test of between per capita real GDP and the Gini coefficient (market income), per capita real GDP has a weak exogeneity while the Gini coefficient is endogenous. From the various cointegration tests, we found out that there is a cointegration between Gini coefficient and per capita real GDP. Moreover, it is estimated that per capita real GDP has a positive effect on the Gini coefficient (market income). In the VAR Granger causal analysis, per capita real GDP affects the Gini coefficient (market income), but it is difficult to say that the Gini coefficient (market income) always has an effect on per capita real GDP. Also, the impulse-response function of the VAR model shows that per capita real GDP temporarily reduces the Gini coefficient (market income), and then increases it over time. Accordingly, it is necessary for the policies to improve not only the distribution structure but also income distribution through economic growth.

• 신재생에너지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.13-21
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• 2010

This paper analyzes the factors of renewable energy consumption in Korea, China and Japan. We consider renewable energy consumption per capita as dependent variable, GDP per capita, $CO_2$ emissions per capita and real oil prices as independent variables. To analyze this model, this paper uses three econometric methods such as OLS, fixed effect model and panel GLS, utilizing data from 1990 to 2006 in Korea, China and Japan. According to the results by OLS for each country, an increase in GDP per capita or $CO_2$ emissions per capita or oil prices leads to an increase in renewable energy consumption. According to the results by fixed effect model, an increase in GDP per capita or $CO_2$ emissions per capita leads to an increase in renewable energy consumption. And real oil prices do not have a significant impacts on this model. According to the results by panel GLS, an increase in real GDP per capita as a proxy of income leads to an increase renewable energy consumption. And both $CO_2$ emissions per capita and real oil prices do not correlated closely with renewable energy consumption. Thus oil is not substituted to renewable energy in Northeast asian countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.37-46
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• 2020

The paper examines the dynamic relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on the economic growth of the Philippines from 1995 to 2018 applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, together with Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM). The ARDL model indicated a long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity on GDP growth. When the GDP per capita is the dependent variable there is weak cointegration. Also, the Johansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of long-run relationship of domestic credit and stock market liquidity both on GDP growth and GDP per capita. The VECM concludes a long-run causality running from domestic credit and stock market liquidity to GDP growth. At levels, domestic credit has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. As for stock market liquidity at first lag, has significant short-run causal relationship with GDP growth. With regards to VECM for GDP per capita, domestic credit and stock market liquidity indicates no significant dynamic adjustment to a new equilibrium if a disturbance occurs in the whole system. At levels, the results indicated the presence of short-run causality from stock market liquidity and GDP per capita. The CUSUMSQ plot complements the findings of the CUSUM plot that the estimated models for GDP growth and GDP per capita were stable.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.116-124
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• 2017

The study makes an attempt to investigate the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population with an evidence from Rwanda by employing a time series data spanning from 1965 to 2011 using the autoregressive distributed lag model. Evidence from the study shows that carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population are co-integrated and have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Evidence from the Granger-causality shows a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to GDP per capita, population to carbon dioxide emissions, population to GDP per capita and population to industrialization. Evidence from the long-run elasticities has policy implications for Rwanda; a 1% increase in GDP per capita will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 1.45%, while a 1% increase in industrialization will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.64% in the long-run. Increasing economic growth in Rwanda will therefore reduce environmental pollution in the long-run which appears to support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, industrialization leads to more emissions of carbon dioxide, which reduces environment, health and air quality. It is noteworthy that the Rwandan Government promotes sustainable industrialization, which improves the use of clean and environmentally sound raw materials, industrial process and technologies.

• 에너지공학
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.66-71
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• 2014

Oil is obviously vital for economic growth and industry development. This paper attempts to explore whether or not there is a inverted-U relationship between oil consumption and economic growth. To this end, we employ a panel data analysis with fixed effect or random effect models using the set of data from 61 countries for the year 1990-2008. In conclusion, a statistically significant inverted-U relationship between per capita consumption of oil and per capita GDP is found. However, the level of per capita GDP at the peak point of per capita oil consumption is estimated to be 65,072 in 2005 international constant dollars, which is much larger than economic scales of sampled countries. Thus, as per capita GDP grows, per capita oil consumption is predicted to increase until eventually reaching the peak.

• 동아시아식생활학회지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.571-579
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• 2007

The aim of this study was to predict the development process of the Korean food service industry by forecasting the per capita GDP. Forecasting the GDP, involved two primary approaches. One was related to looking at the Korean food service industry's situation by per capita GDP and comparing it to that of the US and Japan. The other was to predict food service industry projections in Korea by quantitative forecasting models. Holt's simple exponential smoothing method and new types of the series models(Damped trend exponential smoothing method), were employed to predict the per capita GDP. The accuracy of the models was measured by MAPE. The empirical results of the forecasting models indicate that the three time series models performed fairly well. Of these Damped trend Damped trend exponential smoothing performed best with the lowest MAPE(9.9%). The results show that the time for reaching a per capita GDP level of $20,000 was 2008 with the Damped trend model and 2009 with the Holt model. Moreover, we found that a per capita GDP level of $30,000 will be achieved in 2012 from the Damped trend model and in 2013 from the Holt model. Within this study, the implications for the Korean food service industry are further discussed. It was predicted there will be a stabilization period in 2008 or 2009 in Korea with achievement of a per capita GDP of $20,000. At this time, major food service industry companies will need to invest in equipment toy external growth and there will be industry trends toward ethnic food and theme restaurants. Also, if a per capita GDP of $30,000 is achieved by 2012 or 2013, the Korean food industry will need to be highly responsive. Therefore, food industry companies should forecast and study customer values and prepare for changes.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.19-26
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• 2012

본 논문은 카자흐스탄의 해외직접투자와 경제성장에 관한 연관관계를 연구한다. 이 연구를 위하여 저자들은 먼서 카자흐스탄의 독립이후로 해외직접투자에 영향을 미친 요인들을 조사하고 그들의 영향정도를 파악한다. 다음으로 일인당 GDP대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향을 연구한다. 이러한 연구목적을 달성하기 위하여 1992년부터 2009년 사이의 자료를 World Bank Database에서 수집하여 분석하였다. 자료분석은 중회귀분석, 시계열분석 및 Granger Causality Test를 주로 사용하였다. 연구 결과에 의하면 해외직접투자에 영향을 미치는 요소는 GDP 와 economic freedom index로 나타났으며, 경제성장 또한 해외직접 투자에 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 특별히, 해외직접투자는 GDP 및 economic freedom index와 양의 상관관계가 있었다. 일인당 GDP에 대한 일인당 해외직접투자의 영향은 일인당 해외직접투자 1달러 증가시 일인당 GDP 30.4달러가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 정책결정자들로 하여금 해외투자를 유치하고 경제성장을 촉진하는 정책결정에 유용한 정보를 제공할 것이다.

• 한국인구학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

본 논문은 최근 출산율 저하와 인구고령화로 인한 성장잠재력의 저하에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있는 상황에서 성장잠재력을 제고하는 정책의 성공 여부는 인적자본의 양적.질적 제고를 통한 생산성 향상에 달려 있음으로 파악하고, 인구구조의 변화, 노동시장 조건의 변화 및 노동생산성의 변화 등이 잠재성장률에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 이를 위해 성장회계 접근방식을 이용하여 1인당 GDP 증가율을 인구구조의 변화에 따른 부양비의 변화와 노동투입 요소의 양적.질적 부분의 변화로 분해하였다. 우선, 노동투입의 양적인 변화는 고용률과 근로시간의 변화에 기초하여 시산하였으며, 노동투입의 질적인 변화는 인적자본에 대한 투자가 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 감안하였다. 또한 출산율과 여성고용을 제고하는 정책효과를 분석하기 위해 출산율과 여성의 고용률을 주요 정책변수로 한 정책시뮬레이션을 하였다. 1인당 GDP 증가율의 베이스라인 전망결과는 2010년까지 연평균 4%대 중반의 성장률을 보이다가, 2020년대에는 3.94%, 2030년대에는 3.03%, 2040년대에는 2.41%로 서서히 감소할 것으로 나타났다. 또한 출산율 제고에 따른 성장률 효과는 2030년을 지나서 반영이 되며, 고출산율 시나리오 (2030년 이후 합계출산율이 1.57명으로 유지)의 경우 베이스라인보다 2030년대 이후 연평균 약 0.10%p 높은 1인당 GDP 성장률을 보일 것으로 전망되었다. 한편, 여성고용률이 제고되는 시나리오(2025년 이후 $25{\sim}54$세 여성의 고용률이 74.5%로 상승)의 경우 베이스라인보다 2050년까지 연평균 0.04%p 높은 1인당 GDP 성장률을 보일 것으로 전망되었다. 본 연구는 양적인 노동투입의 효과만으로는 성장잠재력에 미치는 영향이 그다지 크지 않으며, 궁극적으로 노동생산성의 향상과 같은 질적인 요소의 증대가 성장잠재력 확충에 중요한 대안이 됨을 알려 주고 있다.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.445-449
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• 2015

Construction industry is one of the most significant sector in national economic, but the portion of construction has been falling regularly with the regional development. In spite of decrease in economic portion, role of construction industry does not changed irrespective of development, as the foundation of development. To distinguish each state of the maturity, countries are grouped on GDP per capita, than compared with variance of GVA in construction and GFCF per GDP as level of construction industry. GVAc% and GFCF% shows corn-shaped plotting in increase of GDP per capita, and each value converge to around 20% and 5% as GDP per capita increase. The definition of maturity is consist of 4 stages; pre-developing, ascending, stabilization, and maturement. Maturity of construction industry is a term of broad sense of construction industry that is easily to figure current state of regional construction and shows what normal condition of construction is in regional economy.