• 한국인구학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

본 논문은 최근 출산율 저하와 인구고령화로 인한 성장잠재력의 저하에 대한 우려가 높아지고 있는 상황에서 성장잠재력을 제고하는 정책의 성공 여부는 인적자본의 양적.질적 제고를 통한 생산성 향상에 달려 있음으로 파악하고, 인구구조의 변화, 노동시장 조건의 변화 및 노동생산성의 변화 등이 잠재성장률에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것을 목적으로 하고 있다. 이를 위해 성장회계 접근방식을 이용하여 1인당 GDP 증가율을 인구구조의 변화에 따른 부양비의 변화와 노동투입 요소의 양적.질적 부분의 변화로 분해하였다. 우선, 노동투입의 양적인 변화는 고용률과 근로시간의 변화에 기초하여 시산하였으며, 노동투입의 질적인 변화는 인적자본에 대한 투자가 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 감안하였다. 또한 출산율과 여성고용을 제고하는 정책효과를 분석하기 위해 출산율과 여성의 고용률을 주요 정책변수로 한 정책시뮬레이션을 하였다. 1인당 GDP 증가율의 베이스라인 전망결과는 2010년까지 연평균 4%대 중반의 성장률을 보이다가, 2020년대에는 3.94%, 2030년대에는 3.03%, 2040년대에는 2.41%로 서서히 감소할 것으로 나타났다. 또한 출산율 제고에 따른 성장률 효과는 2030년을 지나서 반영이 되며, 고출산율 시나리오 (2030년 이후 합계출산율이 1.57명으로 유지)의 경우 베이스라인보다 2030년대 이후 연평균 약 0.10%p 높은 1인당 GDP 성장률을 보일 것으로 전망되었다. 한편, 여성고용률이 제고되는 시나리오(2025년 이후 $25{\sim}54$세 여성의 고용률이 74.5%로 상승)의 경우 베이스라인보다 2050년까지 연평균 0.04%p 높은 1인당 GDP 성장률을 보일 것으로 전망되었다. 본 연구는 양적인 노동투입의 효과만으로는 성장잠재력에 미치는 영향이 그다지 크지 않으며, 궁극적으로 노동생산성의 향상과 같은 질적인 요소의 증대가 성장잠재력 확충에 중요한 대안이 됨을 알려 주고 있다.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.58-67
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• 2014

If we compare the GDP per Capita for the last 20 years between Philippines and other ASEAN countries, Philippines remains in the lowest on GDP per Capita. This paper is trying to find out the possible reasons for the low growth rate of the GDP per Capita in the Philippines. 53 years data from the World Bank are used explore the relationships between the GDP per Capita and eight economic indicators to run three time series models and one to one regression. Three indicators, namely, consumer price index, gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP and population are remarked with possible contribution to the low growth rate of the GDP per capita of the Philippines.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.85-91
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• 2003

Objectives : We investigated the effects of the economic growth and unemployment rates on the suicide rate in Korea, between 1983 and 2000, using a time-series regression model. The purpose of this study was to model and test the magnitude of the rate of suicide, with the Korean unemployment rate and GDP. Methods : Using suicide rate per 100,000 Koreans and the unemployment rates between 1983 and 2000, as published by the Korea National Statistical Office, and the rate of fluctuation of the Korean GDP (Gross Domestic Product), as provided by the Bank of Korea, as an index of the economic growth rate, a time-series regression analysis, with a first-order autoregressive regression model, was peformed. Results : An 81.5% of the variability in the suicide rate was explained by GDP, and 82.6% Of that was explained by the unemployment rate. It was also observed that the GDP negatively correlated with the suicide rate, while the unemployment and suicide rates were positively correlated. For subjects aged over 20, both the GDP and unemployment rate were found to be a significant factors in explaining suicide rates, with coefficients of determination of 86.5 and 87.9%, respectively. For subjects aged under 20, however, only the GDP was found to be a significant factor in explaning suicide rates (the coefficient of determination is 38.4%). Conclusion : It was found that the suicide rate was closely related to the National's economic status of Korea, which is similar to the results found in studies in other countries. We expected, therefore, that this study could be used as the basis for further suicide-related studies.

• 수완나부미
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.215-244
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• 2023

This study analyzes the effect of macroeconomic indicators such as foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic investment, trade, inflation, unemployment, population, and governance indicators on economic growth and points out the GDP growth rate in 2002- 2019 among ASEAN countries. Data were compiled from the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) and the World Bank, and the effect of variables on GDP was predicted using the pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), fixed effects model (FEM), and random effects model (REM) methods. As a measure of growth, the GDP growth rate has been taken; FDI and domestic investment, trade, inflation, and governance indicators are positively connected and have an influence on economic growth in these ASEAN countries; domestic investment, population, and unemployment have a negative relationship to economic growth. The macroeconomic indicators and institutional stability of the nation have an effect on its economic growth. Comprehensive institutional stability and well-laid macroeconomic policies are required for growth to materialize.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제37권2호
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• pp.255-263
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• 2024

GDP는 한 나라의 가계, 기업, 정부 등 모든 경제 주체가 일정 기간 동안 창출한 재화와 서비스의 시장 가치의 합을 나타낸다. GDP를 통하여 국가의 경제 규모를 파악할 수 있으며, 정부의 정책 방향에 영향을 미치는 대표적인 경제 지표이므로 이에 대한 연구가 다양하게 이루어지고 있다. 본 논문에서는 G20 국가들의 주요 거시경제 지표를 활용하여 dynamic factor model 기반의 GDP 성장률 예측 모델을 제시하였다. 추출된 factor를 다양한 회귀분석 방법론과 결합하여 그 결과들을 비교하였으며, 기존의 전통적인 시계열 예측방법인 ARIMA 모델, common component를 이용한 예측 등도 함께 비교하였다. COVID 이후 지표의 변동성이 큰 점을 고려하여 예측 시기를 COVID 전후로 나누었으며, 그 결과 factor에 대해 ridge regression과 lasso regression을 적용하여 예측한 경우 가장 좋은 성능을 나타내었다.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.15-30
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• 2017

This study analyzes the relationship between income inequality and economic growth. Gini coefficient (market income), the deciles income inequality index and per capita real GDP were analyzed. Furthermore, various cointegration tests were tried to improve the reliability of the test results. From the weak exogeniety test of between per capita real GDP and the Gini coefficient (market income), per capita real GDP has a weak exogeneity while the Gini coefficient is endogenous. From the various cointegration tests, we found out that there is a cointegration between Gini coefficient and per capita real GDP. Moreover, it is estimated that per capita real GDP has a positive effect on the Gini coefficient (market income). In the VAR Granger causal analysis, per capita real GDP affects the Gini coefficient (market income), but it is difficult to say that the Gini coefficient (market income) always has an effect on per capita real GDP. Also, the impulse-response function of the VAR model shows that per capita real GDP temporarily reduces the Gini coefficient (market income), and then increases it over time. Accordingly, it is necessary for the policies to improve not only the distribution structure but also income distribution through economic growth.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권12호
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• pp.117-127
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• 2021

This study was conducted to comprehensively identify factors that potentially influence corporate investment behavior, including micro, macro, and sectoral variables. Furthermore, investment behavior was studied across nations based on their participation in the global value chain (GVC), which was evaluated based on commodities, limited manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and innovative activities. The study uses the dynamic panel data analysis and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation for a sample of 800 corporations, with data spanning over 2000-2019. The study result shows that in all types of countries, the coefficient lag indicator of capital expenditure statistically has a significant effect on capital expenditure. Sales growth, exchange rate, and GDP have a significant positive effect on corporate investment growth, while DER has a negative effect. In commodity countries, corporate investment is influenced by sales growth, exchange rate, and FCI. The variables that influence corporate investment in manufacturing countries are the FCI, exchange rate, sales growth, GDP, and DER. In innovative countries, variables that significantly affect capital expenditure are DER, GDP, and Tobin Q. In each type of country, the interaction terms between exchange rate and commodity price are positive and statistically significant.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.31-56
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• 2020

Does financial development contribute to economic growth? The literature finds that an expansion in financial resources is useful for economic growth if the degree of financial development is under a certain threshold; otherwise, the expansion is detrimental to growth. Almost every published study, however, considers country-panel data. Accordingly, the results are not directly applicable to the Korean economy. By examining Korean time-series data, this paper finds that there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between the per capita real GDP growth rate and private credit (as a percentage of nominal GDP)-a well-known measure of quantitative financial development, where the threshold is 171.5%. This paper also finds that private credit is positively associated with economic growth if the share of household credit out of private credit is less than 46.9%; otherwise, private credit is negatively associated with economic growth. As of 2016, the ratio of private credit to GDP and the ratio of household credit to private credit are both higher than the corresponding thresholds, which implies that policymakers should place more emphasis on qualitative financial development than on a quantitative expansion of financial resources.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권10호
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• pp.29-38
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• 2022

Ready-made Garments (RMG) export earnings, which are almost 80% of the total exports of Bangladesh, have been recognized as one of the main catalysts for the recent development of the country. Therefore, the need to determine whether the RMG export had served as a mechanism for increasing the GDP growth as well as the economic development of the country is topical and pressing. We have applied the Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to reveal the linkage of RMG export earnings and other variables with the GDP growth rate in Bangladesh. Using data from 1990 to 2020 for Bangladesh, we have found long-run as well as short-run associations among RMG Export earnings, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and GDP growth. A co-integration among the variables is validated through the Johansen Co-integration test. Moreover, a causal correlation running from RMG export earnings to GDP was revealed by the Granger causality test in the long run. Finally, we estimated impulse response functions to observe the variations of model variables in response to a shock. Our result supports the proposition that RMG export earnings are one of the main growth engines in Bangladesh and this sector leads growth in other sectors also in the long term.

• 통상정보연구
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.239-265
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• 2010

After reform and openness action, china has been recorded high rate of increasing in export and continuous economic growth. Also their role in the international economy has been rise. The major reason of these incredible growth of China is the openness by a trade, after all the economic growth of China is evaluated an export-led growth. But, some insist that the growth of China has been accomplished by a domestic-based economy not but an export-led economy. For verification of former insists, using a yearly data, China exports and GDP, from 1979 to 2007 and performs time-series to examine an existence of causality between China's regional exports and GDP. As result of analysis, GDP and exports have two-way causality significantly when not considering region case. After the direction of Chinese reform, the east region has a strong significant relation, which support that export-led growth. While, middle and west region has weak causality between exports and GDP.