• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제36권1호
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• pp.85-91
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• 2003

Objectives : We investigated the effects of the economic growth and unemployment rates on the suicide rate in Korea, between 1983 and 2000, using a time-series regression model. The purpose of this study was to model and test the magnitude of the rate of suicide, with the Korean unemployment rate and GDP. Methods : Using suicide rate per 100,000 Koreans and the unemployment rates between 1983 and 2000, as published by the Korea National Statistical Office, and the rate of fluctuation of the Korean GDP (Gross Domestic Product), as provided by the Bank of Korea, as an index of the economic growth rate, a time-series regression analysis, with a first-order autoregressive regression model, was peformed. Results : An 81.5% of the variability in the suicide rate was explained by GDP, and 82.6% Of that was explained by the unemployment rate. It was also observed that the GDP negatively correlated with the suicide rate, while the unemployment and suicide rates were positively correlated. For subjects aged over 20, both the GDP and unemployment rate were found to be a significant factors in explaining suicide rates, with coefficients of determination of 86.5 and 87.9%, respectively. For subjects aged under 20, however, only the GDP was found to be a significant factor in explaning suicide rates (the coefficient of determination is 38.4%). Conclusion : It was found that the suicide rate was closely related to the National's economic status of Korea, which is similar to the results found in studies in other countries. We expected, therefore, that this study could be used as the basis for further suicide-related studies.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.643-651
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• 2007

The Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis postulates an inverted-U shaped relationship between GDP per capita and various pollutants. Pollutants emission increases up to a certain level as income goes up; after that, it decreases. This paper investigates the relationship between industry pollutants taking industrial sulfur dioxide omission as example, and economic growth by using province-panel data set from 1989 to 2004 in 28 provinces of P. R. China. The result shows that the EKC hypothesis may be supported in the case of industrial sulfur dioxide, and the GDP per capital of turning point is about RMB 13,548 (at 1978 price). Except Shanghai, all the provinces GDP per capital in this study are less than RMB 13,548, indicating the amount of industrial sulfur dioxide emission will be increasing in the near future. To realize sustainable development and pollutants abatement, the central and local government should adopt an integrated strategy to protect environment.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.5-12
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• 2015

The authors calculate the long-term predictability of GDP, domestic demand, investment, and net exports for Guangdong province, P.R. China from 2000 to 2013. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model with quarterly data for this period is first co-integrated then the Granger causality test is applied to empirically assess the relationships among gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, investment, and net exports. There is a strong causality effect between investment and net exports in Guangdong province. However, the variance decomposition results indicate that exports respond to foreign shocks rather than domestic ones, making their impact on the Guangdong economy to predict. Results show the stimulating effect of domestic demand on GDP is larger than the stimulating effect of net exports and much larger than even the stimulating effect of investment. The analysis suggests that there are dynamic influences with various levels of persistence between GDP, consumption, investment, and net exports. Macroeconomic policy adjustments are urgently required to expand domestic demand and thereby stimulate economic growth in Guangdong province.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.109-114
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• 2020

The aim of this study is to develop basic artificial neural network models in forecasting the in-sample gross domestic product (GDP) of Malaysia. GDP is one of the main indicators in presenting the macro economic condition of a country as set by the world authority bodies such as the World Bank. Hence, this study uses an artificial neural network-based approach to make predictions concerning the economic growth of Malaysia. This method has been proposed due to its ability to overcome multicollinearity among variables, as well as the ability to cope with non-linear problems in Malaysia's growth data. The selected inputs and outputs are based on the previous literatures as well as the economic growth theory. Therefore, the selected inputs are exports, imports, private consumption, government expenditure, consumer price index (CPI), inflation rate, foreign direct investment (FDI) and money supply, which includes M1 and M2. Whilst, the output is real gross domestic product growth rate. The results of this study showed that the neural network method gives the smallest value of mean error which is 0.81 percent with a total difference of 0.70 percent. This implies that the neural network model is appropriate and is a relevant method in forecasting the economic growth of Malaysia.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.59-85
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• 2024

본고는 인공지능 산업의 발전이 우리나라 경제성장에 미치는 효과를 추정하여 최근의 4차 산업혁명 관련 기술혁신에 대한 경제적 시사점과 함께 관련 경제정책에 대한 함의를 얻고자 하였다. 인공지능 산업 발전 정도에 대한 대용변수로는 2018년~2020년 기간 소프트웨어 정책연구소가 조사한 '인공지능산업실태조사' 중 산업별 AI 관련업체의 매출액 및 특허출원 건수를 사용하였으며 경제성장 변수로는 산업별 총요소생산성과 산업별 GDP를 사용하였다. 추정 결과 AI 산업의 발전은 1년 정도의 시차를 두고 성장에 긍정적 영향을 끼치는 것으로 평가되었다. 특히 매출액 변수를 사용하였을 때 대정부 AI 매출이 GDP 성장에 미치는 효과가 민간 기업이나 소비자 대상 AI 매출에 비해 더 큰 큰 것으로 나타나 AI 산업 확산을 위한 정부의 정책적 노력이 다소 유의한 성과를 가져온 것으로 평가되었다. 다만 인공지능산업실태조사 자료의 기간이 다소 짧고 제조업에 대해서는 중분류 자료가 부재하다는 한계가 있어 관련 자료의 개선과 자료 축적이 진행될 경우 보다 강건한 결과를 도출할 것으로 기대된다.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.371-416
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• 2012

본 연구는 내생적 성장이론에 기반을 둔 일반균형모형(CGE)을 구축하고 탄소세수 환원의 이중배당 가능성을 평가하고 있다. 분석 시나리오는 탄소세 수입 활용 방법에 따라 정부지출 확대, 소비세, 근로소득세, 법인세 등 기존 조세의 세율 인하, 그리고 신기술에 대한 R&D 지원 등 7개로 구성된다. 분석 결과에 따르면 신기술 도입과 탄소세 수입 환원정책은 온실가스 감축에 따른 GDP 손실을 큰 폭으로 낮추는데 기여하지만 분석기간 동안 GDP 손실이 여전히 발생하는 것으로 나타나고 있다. GDP 손실의 개선효과는 신기술에 대한 R&D 지원, 법인세 인하, 근로소득세 인하, 소비세 인하, 정부지출 증가 순으로 크게 나타난다. 탄소세 수입을 R&D 지원으로 활용할 경우 장기적으로 경제성장과 온실가스 감축이 동시에 달성되는 것으로 나타난다.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.23-47
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• 2022

Environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and people gradually realize the harmfulness of environmental pollution, so they pay more and more attention to environmental problems. Also, the conflict between environmental issues and economic growth, and the renewable energy consumption is increasing. The emergence of renewable energy in China has improved the problem of energy shortages and further protects the environment. This article studied the renewable energy resources and the status quo of development and utilization, examined China's renewable energy development countermeasures and suggestions, and conducted an empirical analysis of the effect of renewable energy on economic growth in China. The empirical research concluded that energy consumption and renewable energy consumption have a positive and significant impact on economic growth, and the driving effect of traditional energy on GDP growth is still greater than the driving effect of renewable energy on GDP growth.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.57-83
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)모형을 이용하여 28개 산업별 R&D투자액의 GDP 파급효과를 추정한 뒤, 그 결과로써 GDP의 R&D투자탄력성을 계산하여 산업별 R&D 투자 우선순위를 제시하였다. 우선순위는 28개 대분류 산업 중 전체 연구 개발투자에서 차지하는 비중이 1% 미만인 16개 산업을 제외한 12개 산업에 대해서만 적용해 보았다. 먼저 GDP의 R&D투자 탄력성에 근거한 우선순위는 제1차 금속제품, 화학제품, 음식료품, 전기 및 전자기기, 수송장비, 금속제품, 정밀기기, 전력 가스 및 수도, 일반기계, 통신 및 방송, 건설, 사회 및 기타 서비스, 부동산 및 사업 서비스 순이었다. GDP의 R&D투자탄력성에 근거한 순위설정은 비교적 우리나라 산업들의 현황을 잘 보여주고 있는 것으로 판단된다. 보조 지표인 2030년 기준 균형 대비 GDP 증가율에 근거한 우선순위 역시 판정기준으로 유사한 결과를 보여주었다. 결국 두 개의 우선순위 기준은 국가과학기술위원회의 R&D예산투자방향 및 기준 설정과 주요 사업별 예산배분 방향에 좋은 판정기준으로 활용될 수 있음을 보여주었다.

• 조명전기설비학회논문지
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• 제23권9호
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• pp.47-54
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• 2009

'08.12$\sim$'09. 2월 동절기에 세계경제위축 심화에 따른 수출 급감으로 제조업은 마이너스 성장을 기록함에 따라 우리나라 전력소비의 53[%]를 차지하는 산업용 전력이 약 7[%]의 감소율을 나타내고 있다. 또한 국내에는 내수경기침체에 따른 전력소비 감소와 평년 대비 기온 상승으로 인한 난방수요 감소로 일일 전력수요 패턴에 많은 변화를 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 동절기의 최대전력, 평균전력, 상대계수에 의한 전력수요 패턴, 시간대별 온도민감도 분석을 통하여 최대전력은 GDP 성장률 보다는 기온변화에 민감한 반면, 평균전력은 GDP 성장률에 비례하여 감소하는 추세를 보이고 있는 것으로 분석되었다. 이 자료를 근거로 동 하절기의 최대전력과 평균전력의 정확한 전력 수요 예측으로 전력계통을 경제적이고 안정적으로 운영할 수 있다고 여겨진다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권12호
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• pp.117-127
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• 2021

This study was conducted to comprehensively identify factors that potentially influence corporate investment behavior, including micro, macro, and sectoral variables. Furthermore, investment behavior was studied across nations based on their participation in the global value chain (GVC), which was evaluated based on commodities, limited manufacturing, advanced manufacturing, and innovative activities. The study uses the dynamic panel data analysis and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimation for a sample of 800 corporations, with data spanning over 2000-2019. The study result shows that in all types of countries, the coefficient lag indicator of capital expenditure statistically has a significant effect on capital expenditure. Sales growth, exchange rate, and GDP have a significant positive effect on corporate investment growth, while DER has a negative effect. In commodity countries, corporate investment is influenced by sales growth, exchange rate, and FCI. The variables that influence corporate investment in manufacturing countries are the FCI, exchange rate, sales growth, GDP, and DER. In innovative countries, variables that significantly affect capital expenditure are DER, GDP, and Tobin Q. In each type of country, the interaction terms between exchange rate and commodity price are positive and statistically significant.