• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.63 no.6
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• pp.49-60
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• 2021

BCSA (Bias-Correction and Stochastic Analog) is a statistical downscaling technique designed to effectively correct the systematic errors of GCM (General Circulation Model) output and reproduce basic statistics and spatial variability of the observed precipitation filed. In this study, the applicability of BCSA was evaluated using the ASOS observation data over South Korea, which belongs to the monsoon climatic zone with large spatial variability of rainfall and different rainfall characteristics. The results presented the reproducibility of temporal and spatial variability of daily precipitation in various manners. As a result of comparing the spatial correlation with the observation data, it was found that the reproducibility of various climate indices including the average spatial correlation (variability) of rainfall events in South Korea was superior to the raw GCM output. In addition, the needs of future related studies to improve BCSA, such as supplementing algorithms to reduce calculation time, enhancing reproducibility of temporal rainfall patterns, and evaluating applicability to other meteorological factors, were pointed out. The results of this study can be used as the logical background for applying BCSA for reproducing spatial details of the rainfall characteristic over the Korean Peninsula.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.847-850
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• 2010

최근 많은 수문학자들은 전지구적 기후변화로 인한 피해 예방과 저감을 위해 기후변화가 수문학적으로 어떤 영향을 미치고 있는지 알기 위해 많은 연구를 진행하고 있으며, 기후변화시나리오를 작성하고자 이산화탄소 배출농도를 가정하여 다양한 시나리오를 생성하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 효율적인 수자원 관리를 위해 저해상도의 GCM(General Circulation Models) 모형에서 생성되는 모의결과를 유역 규모의 단위로 스케일 상세화 기법(downscaling)을 적용 시켜 보고자 한다. 이를 위해 2007년 IPCC AR4와 함께 제시된 SRES A1B 시나리오를 채택하여 우리나라 기상청이 연구에 참여 제공하고 있는 EHCO-G 모델의 모의결과를 이용하여 소양강 유역에 적용하였다. 상세화 기법으로는 현재와 과거의 입력값들과 이에 대응된 출력값들을 알고 있는 경우에 미래의 새로운 입력값들에 대한 예측값들을 추출하는데 유용하며, 비선형적 비연속적인 특성이 강한 모델에 강점을 가지고 있는 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network) 모델을 사용하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.09a
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• pp.65-65
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• 2005

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.877-888
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• 2016

To project the effects of climate-induced change on aquatic environments, it is necessary to determine the thermal constraints affecting different fish species and to acquire time series of the current and projected water temperature (WT). Assuming that a nonlinear regression between the WT at individual stations and the ambient air temperature (AT) at nearby weather stations could represent the best relationship of air-water temperature, This study estimates future WT using a general circulation model (GCM). In addition, assuming that the grid-averaged observations of AT correspond to the AT output from GCM simulation, this study constructed a regression curve between the observations of the local WT and the concurrent GCM-simulated surface AT. Because of its low spatial resolution, downscaling is unavoidable. The projected WT under global warming scenario A2 (B2) shows an increase of about $1.6^{\circ}C$ ($0.9^{\circ}C$) for the period 2080-2100. The maximum/minimum WT shows an amount of change similar to that of the mean values. This study will provide guidelines for decision-makers and engineers in climate-induced river environment and ecosystem management.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.26-26
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• 2023

General circulation models (GCMs) are widely used in hydrological prediction, however their coarse grids make them unsuitable for regional analysis, therefore a downscaling method is required to utilize them in hydrological assessment. As one of the downscaling methods, convolutional neural network (CNN)-based downscaling has been proposed in recent years. The aim of this study is to generate the process of dynamic downscaling using CNNs by applying GCM output as input and RCM output as label data output. Prediction accuracy is compared between different input datasets, and model structures. Several input datasets with key atmospheric variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity were tested with two different formats; one is two-dimensional data and the other one is three-dimensional data. And in the model structure, the hyperparameters were tested to check the effect on model accuracy. The results of the experiments on the input dataset showed that the accuracy was higher for the input dataset without precipitation than with precipitation. The results of the experiments on the model structure showed that substantially increasing the number of convolutions resulted in higher accuracy, however increasing the size of the receptive field did not necessarily lead to higher accuracy. Though further investigation is required for the application, this paper can contribute to the development of efficient downscaling method with CNNs.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.179-183
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• 2009

본 연구에서는 GCM 기후변화 전망 시나리오를 이용하여 유역단위의 기후변화를 추정하였다. 원시 GCM 시나리오를 지역화 시키기 위해서 인공신경망 모형을 사용하였다. GCM에서 모의되는 강수플럭스, 해면기압, 지표면 근처에서의 일 평균온도, 지표면으로부터 발생하는 잠열플럭스 등과 같은 22개의 변수는 인공신경망의 잠재적 예측인자로 사용되었으며, AWS에서 관측된 강수량과 온도는 예측변수로 사용되었다. 원시 GCM 데이터는 CCCma(Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis)에서 제공되는 CGCM3.1/T63 20C3M 시나리오를 사용하였으며, 인공신경망 학습과정에서 사용된 기준시나리오(reference scenario)자료의 기간은 1997년부터 2000년까지의 데이터를 사용하였다. 인공신경망을 학습을 통하여 결정된 각 층사이의 가중치를 이용하여 이산화탄소 배출농도를 가정하여 생성된 CGCM3.1/T63 SRES B1 기후변화시나리오(project scenario)를 인공신경망의 입력값으로 하여 미래의 기온과 강수변화를 전망하였다. 신경망의 학습효과를 높이기 위하여 기온과 강수에 대한 평균 및 누적기간을 각각 일단위와 월단위로 설정하였다. 본 연구에서 사용된 인공신경망은 3층 퍼셉트론(다층 퍼셉트론)을 사용하였으며, 학습방법으로는 역전파알고리즘(back-propagation algorithm)을 이용하였다. 민감도분석을 통하여 선택된 예측인자는 소양강댐유역(1011, 1012소유역)에서의 인공신경망 예측인자로 활용되었으며, 2001년부터 2100년까지의 일 평균온도와 일 강수량의 변화경향을 추정하였다. 1011유역, 1012유역에서는 여름철의 온도변화경향이 겨울철에 비하여 높게 나타났다. 일 평균온도의 통계분석 결과 평균예측오차가 가장 적게 나타나는 지역은 1001유역으로 -0.08로 평균예측오차가 가장 적게 나타났으며, 인공신경망기법을 이용하여 스케일 상세화된 일 평균온도와 관측된 일 평균온도가 얼마나 잘 일치하는지를 확인할 수 있는 1012유역에서 CORR이 0.74로 가장 높게 나타났다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.226-226
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• 2015

The complex climate system regarding human actions is well represented through global climate models (GCMs). The output from GCMs provides useful information about the rate and magnitude of future climate change. Especially, the temperature variable is most reliable among other GCM outputs. However, hydrological variables (e.g. precipitation) from GCM outputs for future climate change contain too high uncertainty to use in practice. Therefore, we propose a method that simulates temperature variable with increasing in a certain level (e.g. 0.5oC or 1.0oC increase) as a global warming scenario from observed data. In addition, a hydrometeorological variable can be simulated employing block-wise sampling technique associated with the temperature simulation. The proposed method was tested for assessing the future change of the seasonal precipitation in South Korea under global warming scenario. The results illustrate that the proposed method is a good alternative to levy the variation of hydrological variables under global warming condition.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.327-340
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• 2015

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the basic tool used for modelling climate. However, the spatio-temporal discrepancy between GCM and observed value, therefore, the models deliver output that are generally required calibration for applied studies. Which is generally done by Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. Stochastic downscaling methods have been used extensively to generate long-term weather sequences from finite observed records. A primary objective of this study is to develop a forecasting scheme which is able to make use of a MME of different GCMs. This study employed a Nonstationary Hidden Markov Chain Model (NHMM) as a main tool for downscaling seasonal ensemble forecasts over 3 month period, providing daily forecasts. Our results showed that the proposed downscaling scheme can provide the skillful forecasts as inputs for hydrologic modeling, which in turn may improve water resources management. An application to the Nakdong watershed in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable information for water resources management.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.108-125
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• 2015

The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.9
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• pp.953-958
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• 2015

Raspberry Pi is a credit card-sized computer with support for a large number of input and output peripherals. This makes it the perfect platform for interaction with many different devices and for usage in a wide range of applications. When combined with Wi-Fi, it can communicate remotely, therefore increasing its suitability for the construction of wireless sensor nodes. In addition, data processing and decision-making can be based on artificial intelligence, what is performed in developed testbed on the example of monitoring and determining the confidence of fire. In this paper, we demonstrated the usage of Raspberry Pi as a sensor web node for fire-safety monitoring in a building. When the UV-flame sensors detect a flame as thin as that of a candle, the Raspberry Pi sends a push-message to notify the assigned smartphone of the on-site situation through the GCM server. A mobile app was developed to provide a real-time video streaming service in order to determine a false alarm. If an emergency occurs, one can immediately call for help.