• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.91-104
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• 2017

In this study, we discuss the modeling of domestic transport sector using GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model). The GCAM is one of integrated assessment models widely used in internationally modeling community, and applied for the evaluation of IPCC 5th Report. Nevertheless, it is noted that there are a considerable number of problems in its application to domestic transport sector. First, the base year information of GCAM for detailed transportation service demand is found not consistent with national statistics. Second, the transportation sector simulation results do not properly reflect the past trends of service demand. Thus, the base year service demand is carefully matched with the detailed national statistics. In addition, the existing models were checked and modified so that the simulation results of service demand can accurately reflect past trends of national statistics. As a result, it is reported in detail how the current GCAM simulation results are corrected and how the trend of past transportation sector service demands is properly reflected. This study is expected to be useful as a basic tool for future scenario analysis for transportation policy, technology evaluation and greenhouse gas reduction measures.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.565-590
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• 2016

In accordance with the global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Korean government submitted its INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution) of 25.7% for domestic reduction and the total of 37% reduction by 2030 including the purchase of emission reduction permit from abroad. In this study, 25.7% reduction target is being evaluated to see its impact on domestic energy system using the integrated assessment model, GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). Results show that electricity generation from fossil fuel technologies using coal and gas decrease by 28.0%, 13.5% while that of biomass, wind power, solar energy increase by 47.6%, 22.0% and 45.4%, respectively. It is worth noting that so called new technology such as USC (ultra supercritical power generation) does not contribute to achieving the emission reduction target and careful and quantitative analysis is required for such categorization in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.865-885
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• 2022

Korean government updated her Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2021 and announced the target and various measures for reductions. Among the many issues, final energy demand and renewable energy power mix for 17 provinces to achieve the target are being analyzed using GCAM-Korea. Simulation results show that final energy demand of 2030 is approximated at the similar level to that of 2018. This is being enabled by the conservation of coal with higher electrification especially in industry sector. Higher power demand with lower coal consumption in final energy consumption is shown to be provided by 33.1% of renewable, 24.6% of gas, and 18.0% of nuclear power generation in 2030. Meanwhile, the share of coal-fired power generation is expected to be reduced to 12.8%. Major future power provider becomes Gyeongbuk (Nuclear), Gyeonggi (Gas), Jeonnam (Nuclear, Gas) and Gangwon (PV, Wind), compared to one of current major power provider Chungnam (Coal). This analysis is expected to provide a useful insight toward the national and provincial energy and climate change policy.