• IE interfaces
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.53-62
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• 1996

The Delphi method is widely used for long and middle range forecasting in management science. It is a method by which the subjective data of experts are made to converge using statistical analysis. The Fuzzy Delphi Method(F.D.M.), anew application of the Delphi method using Triangular Fuzzy Numbers(T.F.N.), can help to predict the uncertainty, synthesize the opinion and calculation of those assumed dissemblance index and fuzzy distance. Furthermore, the programming of the F.D.M. process to feed paper and data back to experts can make them more accurately predict the various information.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.4 no.1 s.13
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• pp.81-89
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• 2003

This research suggests the FD-AHP decision making model for Construction Projects which is composed of two main method to prevent a ranking invert situation ; First, to make the consensus of the experts consistent, we utilize Fuzzy-Delphi method to adjust the fuzzy rating of every expert to achive the consensus condition with the fuzzy linguistic presentation. Second, to handle vague linguistic presentation caused by expert's experiences and subjective judgement, we propose Fuzzy-AHP which is able to enhance precision of construction projects decision mating situation. Moreover, with the correlation analysis, we show that the validity of the FD-AHP model under a decision making task specially on where highly demanded expert's experiences and intuition.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.240-241
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to propose a development strategy and an activation plan of port hinterland. To do this, we design a Delphi/Fuzzy-AHP model using Delphi and Fuzzy-AHP.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.607-617
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• 1996

This paper shows that fuzzy set theory can be useful in modeling and solving job scheduling problems with uncertain processing times. The processing times are considered as fuzzy numbers(fuzzy intervals or time intervals) and the fuzzy Delphi method is used to estimate a reliable time interval of each processing time. Based on these time estimates, we then propose an efficient methodology for calculating the optimal sequence and the fuzzy makespan.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 1995.04a
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• pp.496-500
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• 1995

전문가 내지 구성원의 주관적인 의견에 의존하는 방법의 하나인 델파이법(Delphi Method)은 관련자료가 불충분한 중.장기 예측, 전략결정 등에 이용되고 있다. 이 방법을 더욱 발전시킨 퍼지 델파이법(Fuzzy Delphi Method)은 델파이법에 퍼지숫자(fuzzy number)의 개념을 도입하여 정확한 예측을 하고자 하는 것이다. 또한 이러한 예측치가 삼각 퍼지 숫자(Triangular Fuzzy Number)로 주어져 불확실성에 대한 예측과 의견종합을 쉽게 하며, 전문가에 의해 추정된 삼각 퍼지 숫자의 입력을 토애 그 추정치들의 비유사도(Dissemblance Index)와 퍼지거리(fuzzy distance)를 계산하고 간단한 그래프를 다시 전문가에게 피드백(feedback)할 수 있도록 나타내어지는 과정을 code화하여 전문가들로 하여금 다양한 정보를 통하여 좀 더 정확한 추정치를 예측하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.15 no.26
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• pp.111-117
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• 1992

In the stock marketing. investor needs speedy and accurate decision making for the investment. A stock exchange index provides the important index of the early of 1993 in Korea using Fuzzy Delphi Method(F. D. M) which is widely used to a mid and long range forecasting in decision making problem. In the Fuzzy Delphi method, considerably qualified experts an first requested to give their opinion seperately and without intercommunication. The forecasting data of experts consist of Triangular Fuzzy Number (T.F.N) which represents the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic forecast of a stock exchange index. A statistical analysis and dissemblance index are then made of these subject data. These new information are then transmitted to the experts once again, and the process of reestimation is continued until the process converges to a reasonable stable forecast of stock exchange index. The goal of this research is to forecast the stock exchange index using F.D.M. in which subjective data of experts are transformed into quasi -objective data index by some statistical analysis and fuzzy operations. (a) A long range forecasting problem must be considered as an uncertain but not random problem. The direct use of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy methods seems to be more compatible and well suited. (b) The experts use their individual competency and subjectivity and this is the very reason why we propose the use of fuzzy concepts. (c) If you ask an expert the following question: Consider the forecasting of the price index of stocks in the near future. This experts wi11 certainly be more comfortable giving an answer to this question using three types of values: the maximum value, the proper value, and the minimum value rather than an answer in terms of the probability.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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• 2000.05a
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• pp.146-149
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• 2000

In this paper, Computer Colour Matching and Kitchen System (CCMKS) is developed on the basis of delphi package and one-chip processor with fuzzy-PID control. CCMKS will be widely used in the colour dyeing industry as an integrated colour matching and dispensing system which have more advantages than the conventional matching or dispensing system, when controlling the real dyeing processes. Delphi is utilized in making database and search/matching routes. The developed matching function reduces the search and matching time to about one third. One-chip processor is designed and manufactured for the distributed control of three-phase induction motors. Fuzzy-PID control is applied to the speed control of three-phase induction motors for a very precise weight of colour at CCMKS. The developed kitchen function decreases the dispensing time to about one twentieth. The experimental results show CCMKS has more excellent search time, more precise weight and much high fidelity than conventional colour matching or dispensing system, in the performance.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
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• 2008.10a
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• pp.163-171
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• 2008

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.15 no.5
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• pp.443-451
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• 2017

This paper's objectives are to investigate the criteria for ergonomic evaluation of indoor bike coordinated with virtual images, and to compare HMD-based VR bike with 2D-based one. 12 experts performed delphi method with an aim to determine ergonomic evaluation criteria that were classified into 4 categories(Usability, Emotion, User Values, Reality). 2D-based bike and HMD-based one were compared according to part of final criteria through fuzzy-logic question performed by 20 subjects. Though there were no confidential difference in usability, HMD-based VR bicycle resulted in greater scores than 2D-based one in elements related with emotion, user value and reality statistically. It is expected that this research results will be used as references to evaluate ergonomic design of other indoor exercise equipments combined with VR or AR.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.415-415
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• 2012

유역의 홍수위험도를 평가하기 위하여 선행 연구로서 DPSIR framework를 적용한 인자를 선정하였다. 이때 인자의 범위를 사회적, 경제적, 환경적 분야로 구분하고 각 분야에 대하여 홍수로 인하여 야기되는 유역의 다양한 영향요소를 포함하여 인자를 선정하였다. 본 연구에서는 이를 대상으로 각 인자의 가중치를 선정하기 위하여 패널식 조사연구기법인 Delphi 방법을 적용하였다. Delphi 기법은 델파이 절차가 반복되는 동안 조사 참여자에게 전회의 조사 결과, 즉 통계적 집단 반응을 피드백하며 참여자는 이를 참고하여 자신의 판단을 수정 보완 할 수 있는 방법이다. 따라서 1차 설문조사를 통하여 각 패널은 홍수위험도 평가 인자에 대해서 주관적인 가중치를 선정하고 이를 분석한 결과를 피드백 받아 참고한 후 2차 설문조사에 응하여 가중치를 재선정하게 된다. 조사에 참여할 패널의 선정은 수자원분야의 전문가를 대상으로 하였다. 또한 각 인자에 대한 가중치를 수집하는 방법을 다양하게 설정하여 기법에 따른 영향을 검토하였다. 수집기법은 상대적 가중치 결정법 중에서 가장 많이 사용되는 순위법과 직접입력법, 절대적인 기준에 대한 가중치를 수집하기 위하여 Fuzzy 가중치 입력법을 사용하였으며 이 때 각 인자가 소속되는 분야와 DPSIR framework 요소에 대해서도 별도로 가중치를 수집하여 최종적인 인자의 가중치를 결정하였다. 본 연구는 추가 연구를 통해 남한강에 적용되며 인자의 자료는 문헌조사, 통계자료 조사 및 수리학적 수치모형 등의 분석을 통해 수집될 예정이다. 이를 통하여 사회, 경제, 문화, 환경적인 측면을 고려한 인자들을 반영한 하천의 구간별 상대적 홍수취약도를 정량적으로 제시할 수 있으며 하천 구간별 치수관리 우선순위를 결정하는데 적극적으로 활용될 수 있다.