• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fuzzy risk analysis

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Assessment of Possibility on the Human Risk for the Electromagnetic Field of Unbalanced Two Coupled Three-phase Transmission Line Using Fuzzy Theory (퍼지이론을 이용한 3상 2회선 불평형 송전선로에서의 전자계에 대한 인체 위험 가능성평가)

  • Kim, Sang-Chul;Kim, Doo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.21 no.2 s.74
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents assessment of possibility on the human risk for the electromagnetic field of unbalanced two coupled three-phase transmission line using fuzzy theory. Three phase load flow program was developed which employed a Newton-Raphson method as a tool to analyze system unbalanced. This research presents a method of handling two coupled three phase transmission system unbalance analysis and unbalanced power demand as a function of voltages. As the results of case study, in case of 345[kV] T/L, the electric field intensity was 10.9540[kV/m], magnetic field intensity was 0.2567[G] in severest case. The results showed that the membership of a proposition fuzzy '10.9540 [kV/m] is hazardous' is 0.6349. As the analytic results using the fuzzy qualifier term, the membership in case of very false is 0.1379 and fairly false is 0.6124, respectively. In assessment of fuzzy measure possibility for the electromagnetic field, this paper used probability of fuzzy arid measure of fuzziness technique.

Prioritizing for Failure Modes of Dynamic Positioning System Using Fuzzy-FMEA (Fuzzy-FMEA를 이용한 동적위치제어 시스템의 고장유형 우선순위 도출)

  • Baek, Gyeongdong;Kim, Sungshin;Cheon, Seongpyo;Suh, Heungwon;Lee, Daehyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.174-179
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    • 2015
  • Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used by Dynamic Positioning (DP) system for risk and reliability analysis. However, there are limitations associated with its implementation in offshore project. 1) since the failure data measured from the SCADA system is missing or unreliable, assessments of Severity, Occurrence, Detection are based on expert's knowledge; 2) it is not easy for experts to precisely evaluate the three risk factors. The risk factors are often expressed in a linguistic way. 3) the relative importance among three risk factors are rarely even considered. To solve these problems and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, we suggest a Fuzzy-FMEA method for risk and failure mode analysis in Dynamic Positioning System of offshore. The information gathered from DP FMEA report and DP FMEA Proving Trials is expressed using fuzzy linguistic terms. The proposed method is applied to an offshore Dynamic Positioning system, and the results are compared with traditional FMEA.

Weight Evaluation of Risk Factors for Early Construction Stage (초기 건설공사 리스크인자의 중요도 산정)

  • Hwang Ji-Sun;Lee Chan-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.5 no.2 s.18
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    • pp.115-122
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    • 2004
  • This study identifies various risk factors associated with activities of early construction stage, then establishes the Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS) by classifying the risks into the three groups; Common risks, risks for Earth works, and risks for Foundation works. The Common risks are identified and classified by considering various aspects of the early construction stage such as financial, political, constructional aspects, etc. The risks for Earth works and Foundation works are identified in detail by surveying technical specifications, relevant claim cases and interviewing with experts. These risks are classified based on the Wok Breakdown Structure(WBS) of the early construction stage. The WBS presented in this study classifies the works of early construction stage into four categories; excavation, sheeting works, foundation works, footing works. This study suggests a risk analysis method using fuzzy theory for construction projects. Construction risks are generally evaluated as vague linguistic value by subjective decision making. Fuzzy theory is a proper method to quantify vague conditions of construction activities. Therefore, this study utilizes fuzzy theory to analyse construction risks. The weight of risks is estimated by reflecting the interrelationship among risk factors from absolute weights obtained by fuzzy measure into the relative weights by Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP). The interrelationship is estimated by Sugeno-fuzzy measure.

Deterioration Prediction Model of Water Pipes Using Fuzzy Techniques (퍼지기법을 이용한 상수관로의 노후도예측 모델 연구)

  • Choi, Taeho;Choi, Min-ah;Lee, Hyundong;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2016
  • Pipe Deterioration Prediction (PDP) and Pipe Failure Risk Prediction (PFRP) models were developed in an attempt to predict the deterioration and failure risk in water mains using fuzzy technique and the markov process. These two models were used to determine the priority in repair and replacement, by predicting the deterioration degree, deterioration rate, failure possibility and remaining life in a study sample comprising 32 water mains. From an analysis approach based on conservative risk with a medium policy risk, the remaining life for 30 of the 32 water mains was less than 5 years for 2 mains (7%), 5-10 years for 8 (27%), 10-15 years for 7 (23%), 15-20 years for 5 (17%), 20-25 years for 5 (17%), and 25 years or more for 2 (7%).

Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Construction Projects (건설공사의 확률적 위험도분석평가)

  • 조효남;임종권;김광섭
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.24-31
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    • 1997
  • Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.

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An analysis on risk factor of constructor with Fuzzy-FMEA (Fuzzy-FMEA를 활용한 시공사의 리스크 요인 분석)

  • Kim, Seok Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2017
  • The purposes of this study are to analyze risks of construction step BIM(Building Information Modeling) applied project and improve it. Recently, construction industry has emphasized an importance of BIM for efficient utilization of various information. In the whole life cycle of huge construction project, there are cases introducing BIM and projects applying BIM are gradually increased to the work of construction step. However, the process of communication is not established, so the contents of BIM process of construction step are just showing rough fields and concepts of working utilization, so it's restrictive to utilize BIM actively on constructions step. Through results of case study in this research, constructor risks of BIM business should be efficiently treated with Fuzzy-FMEA that is more precise than existing danger evaluation.

Risk Analysis for the Rotorcraft Landing System Using Comparative Models Based on Fuzzy (퍼지 기반 다양한 모델을 이용한 회전익 항공기 착륙장치의 위험 우선순위 평가)

  • Na, Seong Hyeon;Lee, Gwang Eun;Koo, Jeong Mo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2021
  • In the case of military supplies, any potential failure and causes of failures must be considered. This study is aimed at examining the failure modes of a rotorcraft landing system to identify the priority items. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is applied to the rotorcraft landing system. In general, the FMEA is used to evaluate the reliability in engineering fields. Three elements, specifically, the severity, occurrence, and detectability are used to evaluate the failure modes. The risk priority number (RPN) can be obtained by multiplying the scores or the risk levels pertaining to severity, occurrence, and detectability. In this study, different weights of the three elements are considered for the RPN assessment to implement the FMEA. Furthermore, the FMEA is implemented using a fuzzy rule base, similarity aggregation model (SAM), and grey theory model (GTM) to perform a comparative analysis. The same input data are used for all models to enable a fair comparison. The FMEA is applied to military supplies by considering methodological issues. In general, the fuzzy theory is based on a hypothesis regarding the likelihood of the conversion of the crisp value to the fuzzy input. Fuzzy FMEA is the basic method to obtain the fuzzy RPN. The three elements of the FMEA are used as five linguistic terms. The membership functions as triangular fuzzy sets are the simplest models defined by the three elements. In addition, a fuzzy set is described using a membership function mapping the elements to the intervals 0 and 1. The fuzzy rule base is designed to identify the failure modes according to the expert knowledge. The IF-THEN criterion of the fuzzy rule base is formulated to convert a fuzzy input into a fuzzy output. The total number of rules is 125 in the fuzzy rule base. The SAM expresses the judgment corresponding to the individual experiences of the experts performing FMEA as weights. Implementing the SAM is of significance when operating fuzzy sets regarding the expert opinion and can confirm the concurrence of expert opinion. The GTM can perform defuzzification to obtain a crisp value from a fuzzy membership function and determine the priorities by considering the degree of relation and the form of a matrix and weights for the severity, occurrence, and detectability. The proposed models prioritize the failure modes of the rotorcraft landing system. The conventional FMEA and fuzzy rule base can set the same priorities. SAM and GTM can set different priorities with objectivity through weight setting.

A Risk Classification Based Approach for Android Malware Detection

  • Ye, Yilin;Wu, Lifa;Hong, Zheng;Huang, Kangyu
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.959-981
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    • 2017
  • Existing Android malware detection approaches mostly have concentrated on superficial features such as requested or used permissions, which can't reflect the essential differences between benign apps and malware. In this paper, we propose a quantitative calculation model of application risks based on the key observation that the essential differences between benign apps and malware actually lie in the way how permissions are used, or rather the way how their corresponding permission methods are used. Specifically, we employ a fine-grained analysis on Android application risks. We firstly classify application risks into five specific categories and then introduce comprehensive risk, which is computed based on the former five, to describe the overall risk of an application. Given that users' risk preference and risk-bearing ability are naturally fuzzy, we design and implement a fuzzy logic system to calculate the comprehensive risk. On the basis of the quantitative calculation model, we propose a risk classification based approach for Android malware detection. The experiments show that our approach can achieve high accuracy with a low false positive rate using the RandomForest algorithm.

Fuzzy FMEA for Rotorcraft Landing System (회전익 항공기 착륙장치에 대한 퍼지 FMEA)

  • Na, Seong-Hyeon;Lee, Gwang-Eun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2021
  • Munitions must be analyzed to identify any risks for quality assurance in development and mass production. Risk identification for parts, compositions, and systems is carried out through failure mode effects analysis (FMEA) as one of the most reliable methods. FMEA is a design tool for the failure mode of risk identification and relies on the RPN (risk priority number). FMEA has disadvantages because its severity, occurrence, and detectability are rated at the same level. Fuzzy FMEA applies fuzzy logic to compensate for the shortcomings of FMEA. The fuzzy logic of Fuzzy FMEA is to express uncertainties about the phenomenon and provides quantitative values. In this paper, Fuzzy FMEA is applied to the failure mode of a rotorcraft landing system. The Fuzzy rule and membership functions were conducted in the Fuzzy model to study the RPN in the failure mode of a landing system. This method was selected to demonstrate crisp values of severity, occurrence, and detectability. In addition, the RPN was obtained. The results of Fuzzy FMEA for the landing system were analyzed for the RPN and ranking by fuzzy logic. Finally, Fuzzy FMEA confirmed that it could use the data in quality assurance activities for rotorcraft.

Risk Allocation of Private Port Development with Hierarchical Fuzzy Process

  • Seong, Yu-Chang;Youn, Myung-Ou
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.317-323
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    • 2007
  • As economic trade between Korea and China has been encouraged with the rapid growth of Chinese economy and port competition in Northeast Asia, Korean government is trying to promote development and consolidation of ports to cope with the lack of facilities. Thus, many projects for port development have been propelled including the enactment the 'Private investment promotion law for social overhead capital 1994.' However, there are still some unsettled issues since considerable part of risk is still allocated to the Government when it has to support the private businesses in these port investments whenever unexpected problems arise. Allocation of risk among the participants - in this case especially - is a very subtle issue, however, it was revealed that not many precedent researches were done on the subject. In my previous research, I classified and analyzed 4 principle risks i.e, construction, management, financial and social risk. This research investigates the reasonable allocation of the risks among the participants using the Hierarchial Fuzzy Process. In the result of analysis, responsibility of private party is the most important and it must put the responsibility before Government' roll concerned. Also, this research displayed and proposed the direction of management method on port development in a view of minimizing risk and maximizing initiative of a private party.