• 융합경영연구
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.1-6
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• 2022

Purpose: To overcome the question that depends too much on expert's subjective judgment in traditional risk identification, this paper structure the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model of the risk identification of project, to research the risk identification of the project. Research design, data and methodology: This paper constructs the multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics model. Through iterative algorithm of AHP analysis, make sure the important degree of the sub project in risk analysis, then combine expert's subjective judgment with objective quantitative analysis, and distinguish the risk through identification models. Meanwhile, the concrete method of multilevel generalized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is probed. Using the index weights to analyse project risks is discussed in detail. Results: The improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm is proposed in the paper, at first the method of fuzzy sets core is used to optimize the fuzzy relation matrix. It improves the capability of the algorithm. Then, the method of entropy weight is used to establish weight vectors. This makes the computation process fair and open. And thereby, the uncertainty of the evaluation result brought by the subjectivity can be avoided effectively and the evaluation result becomes more objective and more reasonable. Conclusions: In this paper, we use an improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate a railroad engineering project risk. It can give a more reliable result for a reference of decision making.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제13권21호
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• pp.29-41
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• 1990

An assessment of risk in industrial and urban environments is essential in the prevention of accident and in the analysis of situations which are hazardous to public health and safety. The risk imposed by a particular hazard increases with the likelihood of occurence of the event, the exposure and the possible consequence of that event. In a traditional approach, the calculation of a quantitative value of risk is usually based on an assignment of numerical values of each of the risk factors. Then the product of the values of likelihood, exposure and consequences called risk score is derived. However vagueness and imprecision in mathematical quantification of risk are equated with fuzziness rather than randomness. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the area of systems safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique based on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.53-62
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• 2000

본 연구는 건설 프로젝트의 초기 단계에서 미래에 발생할 수 있는 리스크를 리스크분할체계를 통하여 파악하고, 파악된 리스크를 효과적이고 체계적으로 분석 및 평가하여 프로젝트 초기단계에서 리스크를 분석하고 평가할 수 있는 절차와 계산틀을 제시하였다. 그에 따라, 프로젝트 기획 및 입찰 전 단계에서 건설공사 이행과정에서 발생할 가능성이 있는 리스크를 분석 및 평가하기 위해 FREES(Fuzzy Risk Evaluation Expert System)을 제안하였으며 가상 시나리오를 설정하여 모델에 대한 검증을 수행하였다. FREES는 기존의 IF-THEN 지식베이스를 사용한 전문가 시스템과 비교했을 경우 퍼지소속함수를 사용함으로써 규칙의 수를 현저하게 줄일 수 있으며 지식베이스의 구축과 변경 및 삭제 등이 용이하기 때문에 시간의 변화에 따라 다양하게 변화하는 리스크의 크기나 영향정도를 쉽게 반영할 수 있다.

• 한국구조물진단유지관리공학회 논문집
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.233-240
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• 1999

Even though the recent construction safety disasters not only result in the loss inside construction sites but also become to a large public disasters, safety activities are managed in an irrational way and safety rules are ignored in the construction sites which leads to occur same type of disasters repeatedly. In this paper, a fuzzy set theoretic approach to risk analysis is proposed as an alternative to the techniques currently used in the general construction projects safety. Then the concept of risk evaluation using linguistic representation of the likelihood, exposure and consequences is introduced. A risk assessment model using approximate reasoning technique base on fuzzy logic is presented to drive fuzzy values of risk and numerical example for risk analysis is also presented to illustrate the results.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.16-26
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• 1997

China is one of the few countries where natural disaster strike frequently and cause heavy damage. In this paper, we mathematically develop two models to assess fuzzy risk of natural disaster in China. One is to assess the risk based on database of historical disaster effects by using information diffusion method relevant in fuzzy information analysis. In another model, we give an overview over advanced method to calculate the risk of release, exposure and consequence assessent, where information distribution technique is used to calculate basic fuzzy relationships showing historical experience of natural disasters, and fuzzy approximate inference is employed to study loss risk based on these basic relationships. We also present an examples to show how to use the first model. Result show that the model is effective for natural disaster risk assessment.

• Ocean Systems Engineering
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.261-285
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• 2019

Nowadays in offshore industry there are emerging hazards with vague property such as act of terrorism, act of war, unforeseen natural disasters such as tsunami, etc. Therefore industry professionals such as offshore energy insurers, safety engineers and risk managers in order to determine the failure rates and frequencies for the potential hazards where there is no data available, they need to use an appropriate method to overcome this difficulty. Furthermore in conventional risk based analysis models such as when using a fault tree analysis, hazards with vague properties are normally waived and ignored. In other word in previous situations only a traditional probability based fault tree analysis could be implemented. To overcome this shortcoming fuzzy set theory is applied to fault tree analysis to combine the known and unknown data in which the pre-combined result will be determined under a fuzzy environment. This has been fulfilled by integration of a generic bow-tie based risk analysis model into the risk assessment phase of the Risk Management (RM) cycles as a backbone of the phase. For this reason Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Event Tree Analysis (ETA) are used to analyse one of the significant risk factors associated in offshore terminals. This process will eventually help the insurers and risk managers in marine and offshore industries to investigate the potential hazards more in detail if there is vagueness. For this purpose a case study of offshore terminal while coinciding with the nature of the Caspian Sea was decided to be examined.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제53권5호
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• pp.1464-1478
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• 2021

Selective Production of Exotic Species is an innovative plant for advanced nuclear physic studies. A radioactive beam, generated by using an UCx target-ion source system, is ionized, selected and accelerated for experimental objects. Very high vacuum conditions and appropriate safety systems to storage exhaust gases are required to avoid radiological risk for operators and people. In this paper, Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis of a preliminary design of high activity gas recovery system is performed by using a modified Fuzzy Risk Priority Number to rank the most critical components in terms of failures and human errors. Comparisons between fuzzy approach and classic application allow to show that Fuzzy Risk Priority Number is able to enhance the focus of risk assessments and to improve the safety of complex and innovative systems such as those under consideration.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.136-143
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• 2004

본 논문은 초기 건설공사의 리스크 관리방법론을 제시한 것으로서, 리스크식별 및 분석을 중심으로 연구를 진행하였다. 리스크식별은 초기 건설공사를 $공통공사\cdot토공사\cdot지정$ 및 기초공사로 구분하여 리스크를 규명하고 작업분류체계에 기반하여 리스크분류체계를 제안하였다. 리스크분석은 리스크분류체계를 바탕으로 퍼지추론을 이용하여 리스크인자의 위험도를 정량화하고 퍼지척도를 이용하여 리스크인자의 중요도를 산정하였으며, 이를 통합하여 상위 리스크인자의 종합위험도를 구하기 위해 퍼지적분을 이용하였다. 리스크인자의 관리 우선순위는 종합위험도로부터 결정할 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제시한 리스크 관리 방법론의 타당성을 확인하기 위하여 사례적용을 실시하였으며, 그 결과 제시한 방법론이 현장 및 공사의 특성을 반영하여 리스크인자의 관리 우선순위를 결정하는데 충분히 활용할 수 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제14권3호
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• pp.119-126
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• 2012

Recently, the breakdown of online banking servers and the leakage of customer information give rise to much concern about the security of information systems in financial and banking companies in Korea. The enforcement of security for information system becomes much more important issue than earlier. However, the security reinforcement of information system is restricted by a budget. In addition, the activities' cost to secure information system from threatening are under uncertain circumstances and should be established by a human decision maker who is basically uncertain and vague. Thus, making the budget for information system is exposed to any extent of the risk for these reasons. First, we introduce brief fuzzy set theory and fuzzy AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology. Then, the cost elements that comprise yearly budget are presented and the priorities among the cost elements are calculated by fuzzy AHP. The cost elements that are exposed to risk are evaluated from the both perspectives of the risk impact and risk occurrence possibility which are expressed as linguistic terms. To get information on the risk profiles-pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic-for each cost element, the evaluation is accomplished and the result is presented. At last, the budget ranges-minimum, mode, maximum-for each cost element are estimated with the consideration of the risk profiles.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.179-192
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• 2023

The widespread use of Cloud Computing, Internet of Things (IoT), and social media in the Information Communication Technology (ICT) field has resulted in continuous and unavoidable cyber-attacks on users and critical infrastructures worldwide. Traditional security measures such as firewalls and encryption systems are not effective in countering these sophisticated cyber-attacks. Therefore, Intrusion Detection and Prevention Systems (IDPS) are necessary to reduce the risk to an absolute minimum. Although IDPSs can detect various types of cyber-attacks with high accuracy, their performance is limited by a high false alarm rate. This study proposes a new technique called Fuzzy Logic - Objective Risk Analysis (FLORA) that can significantly reduce false positive alarm rates and maintain a high level of security against serious cyber-attacks. The FLORA model has a high fuzzy accuracy rate of 90.11% and can predict vulnerabilities with a high level of certainty. It also has a mechanism for monitoring and recording digital forensic evidence which can be used in legal prosecution proceedings in different jurisdictions.