• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.58-73
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• 2021

Purpose - In the context of economic globalization and the continuous development of international trade, as countries around the sea peninsula, port construction is particularly important. Based on the research on the influencing factors of port logistics development based on the allocation analysis, QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) provides the basis for the planning and policy of port logistics development and has important theoretical value and practical significance for improving the level of port logistics management, reducing logistics operating costs and increasing economic benefits. In the tide of global integration for the development of port logistics, promote the growth of foreign trade economy of the city. It is also of great significance to the development and progress of commerce and trade. Design/methodology - Based on the relevant data samples of various ports in South Korea, this paper uses fsQCA (fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis) to integrate and analyze the influence mechanism of port logistics development and extracts five influencing factors of port logistics development, including the port's scale and infrastructure in the hard environment, port-neighboring enterprises in the soft environment, hinterland economy and government support. Findings - The five factors are unable to separately constitute the necessary and sufficient conditions of port logistics development, only a combined model can influence lake port logistics development. The scale and infrastructure of the port itself and port-neighboring ring enterprises are the main core conditions, which work together on the port, affect the throughput capacity of the port, and promote the development of port logistics. When the port-neighboring enterprises are not complete and the scale is low, the growth of port throughput will be restrained and the development of port logistics will be affected, whether the hinterland economic benefits are general, the development of port-neighboring enterprises is insufficient, or the government supports are limited. Originality/value - Through the research on the development of port logistics in South Korea from the perspective of configuration, this paper finds the configuration influence of hard environment and soft environment on the development of port logistics, which has important theoretical and practical significance for better promoting the development of port logistics in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.118-125
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to decide an appropriate neighborhood and a transition rule of cellular automata by analyzing the past growth process of urban areas in Gimhae. With cellular automata which can manage the change based on the dynamic model and time, this study analyzes the urban growth of Gimhae from 1987 to 2001. Also, through the simulation of different types for neighborhood and transition rules, we can find the appropriate neighborhood and the transition rule for Gimhae. In conclusion, the forecast of physical urban growth pattern is more accurate under conditions when the number of matrixes for the neighborhood is small, the shape of the neighborhood is rectangular, "${\alpha}$" value, which control the pace of urban growth, is low and the transition possibility ($P_{ij}$) is high.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.139-153
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• 2017

Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.23-33
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• 2016

The current smart lighting is shaped to offer the lighting environment suitable for current context, after identifying user's action and location through a sensor. The sensor-based context awareness technology just considers a single user, and the studies to interpret many users' various context occurrences and conflicts lack. In existing studies, a fuzzy theory and algorithm including ReBa have been used as the methodology to solve context conflict. The fuzzy theory and algorithm including ReBa just avoid an opportunity of context conflict that may occur by providing services by each area, after the spaces where users are located are classified into many areas. Therefore, they actually cannot be regarded as customized service type that can offer personal preference-based context conflict. This paper proposes a priority-based LED lighting control system interpreting multiple context conflicts, which decides services, based on the granted priority according to context type, when service conflict is faced with, due to simultaneous occurrence of various contexts to many users. This study classifies the residential environment into such five areas as living room, 'bed room, study room, kitchen and bath room, and the contexts that may occur within each area are defined as 20 contexts such as exercising, doing makeup, reading, dining and entering, targeting several users. The proposed system defines various contexts of users using an ontology-based model and gives service of user oriented lighting environment through rule based on standard and context reasoning engine. To solve the issue of various context conflicts among users in the same space and at the same time point, the context in which user concentration is required is set in the highest priority. Also, visual comfort is offered as the best alternative priority in the case of the same priority. In this manner, they are utilized as the criteria for service selection upon conflict occurrence.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.187-201
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• 2011

KOSPI200 index is the Korean stock price index consisting of actively traded 200 stocks in the Korean stock market. Its base value of 100 was set on January 3, 1990. The Korea Exchange (KRX) developed derivatives markets on the KOSPI200 index. KOSPI200 index futures market, introduced in 1996, has become one of the most actively traded indexes markets in the world. Traders can make profit by entering a long position on the KOSPI200 index futures contract if the KOSPI200 index will rise in the future. Likewise, they can make profit by entering a short position if the KOSPI200 index will decline in the future. Basically, KOSPI200 index futures trading is a short-term zero-sum game and therefore most futures traders are using technical indicators. Advanced traders make stable profits by using system trading technique, also known as algorithm trading. Algorithm trading uses computer programs for receiving real-time stock market data, analyzing stock price movements with various technical indicators and automatically entering trading orders such as timing, price or quantity of the order without any human intervention. Recent studies have shown the usefulness of artificial intelligent systems in forecasting stock prices or investment risk. KOSPI200 index data is numerical time-series data which is a sequence of data points measured at successive uniform time intervals such as minute, day, week or month. KOSPI200 index futures traders use technical analysis to find out some patterns on the time-series chart. Although there are many technical indicators, their results indicate the market states among bull, bear and flat. Most strategies based on technical analysis are divided into trend following strategy and non-trend following strategy. Both strategies decide the market states based on the patterns of the KOSPI200 index time-series data. This goes well with Markov model (MM). Everybody knows that the next price is upper or lower than the last price or similar to the last price, and knows that the next price is influenced by the last price. However, nobody knows the exact status of the next price whether it goes up or down or flat. So, hidden Markov model (HMM) is better fitted than MM. HMM is divided into discrete HMM (DHMM) and continuous HMM (CHMM). The only difference between DHMM and CHMM is in their representation of state probabilities. DHMM uses discrete probability density function and CHMM uses continuous probability density function such as Gaussian Mixture Model. KOSPI200 index values are real number and these follow a continuous probability density function, so CHMM is proper than DHMM for the KOSPI200 index. In this paper, we present an artificial intelligent trading system based on CHMM for the KOSPI200 index futures system traders. Traders have experienced on technical trading for the KOSPI200 index futures market ever since the introduction of the KOSPI200 index futures market. They have applied many strategies to make profit in trading the KOSPI200 index futures. Some strategies are based on technical indicators such as moving averages or stochastics, and others are based on candlestick patterns such as three outside up, three outside down, harami or doji star. We show a trading system of moving average cross strategy based on CHMM, and we compare it to a traditional algorithmic trading system. We set the parameter values of moving averages at common values used by market practitioners. Empirical results are presented to compare the simulation performance with the traditional algorithmic trading system using long-term daily KOSPI200 index data of more than 20 years. Our suggested trading system shows higher trading performance than naive system trading.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.721-731
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• 2010

The rainfall-runoff relationship is very difficult to predict because it is complicate factor affected by many temporal and spatial parameters of the basin. In recent, models which is based on artificial intelligent such as neural network, genetic algorithm fuzzy etc., are frequently used to predict discharge while stochastic or deterministic or empirical models are used in the past. However, the discharge data which are generally used for prediction as training and validation set are often estimated from rating curve which has potential error in its estimation that makes a problem in reliability. Therefore, in this study, water stage is predicted from antecedent rainfall and water stage data for short term using three models of neural network which trained by error back propagation algorithm and optimized by genetic algorithm and training error back propagation after it is optimized by genetic algorithm respectively. As the result, the model optimized by Genetic Algorithm gives the best forecasting ability which is not much decreased as the forecasting time increase. Moreover, the models using stage data only as the input data give better results than the models using precipitation data with stage data.