• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.56 no.4
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• pp.273-284
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• 2023

Water supply is continuously suffering from frequent droughts under climate change, and such extreme events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change. In this study, the decision scaling method was introduced to evaluate the drought vulnerability under future climate change in a wider range. As a result, the water supply reliability of the Boryeong Dam ranged from 95.80% to 98.13% to the condition of the aqueduct which was constructed at the Boryeong Dam. Furthermore, the Boryeong Dam was discovered to be vulnerable under climate change scenarios. Hence, genetic algorithm-based hedging rules were developed to evaluate the reduction effect of drought vulnerability. Moreover, three demand scenarios (high, standard, and low demand) were also considered to reflect the future socio-economic change in the Boryeong Dam. By analyzing quantitative reliability and the probability of extreme drought occurrence under 5% of the water storage rate, all hedging rules demonstrated that they were superior in preparing for extreme drought under low-demand scenarios.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.222-222
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• 2015

Vietnam is one of the most vulnarable countries affected by climate change and sea level rise. One of the consequences of climate change and sea level rise is the increase of salinity intrusion into the rivers which is challenging to irrigation systems in coastal areas. This indicates the necessary to study the ability of taking water through sluice gates of irrigation systems in coastal zones, especially in the dry season with the effects of climate change and sea level rise in the future. In this paper, Nam Thai Binh irrigation system is selected as a case study. The irrigation system is one of 22 biggest irrigation systems of the Red River delta in Vietnam located in coastal region. The computed duration is selected in dry season to irrigate for Winter-Spring crops. The irrigation water for the study area is taken from different sluice gates along the Red River and the Tra Ly River. In this paper, MIKE-11 model was applied to assess the ability of taking water for irrigation of the study area in current situation and in the context of climate change and sea level rise senario in 2050 (under the medium emissions scenario (B2) published by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of Vietnam published in 2012) with different condition of water availability. The operation of the gates depends on the water levels and sanility conditions. The sanility and water level at different water intake gates of Nam Thai Binh irrigation system were simulated with different senarios with and without climate change and sea level rise. The result shows that, under climate change and sea water level rise, some gates can take more water but some can not take water because of salinity excess and the total water taking from the different gates along the rivers decrease while the water demand is increase. The study indicates the necessary to study quantitatively some recommended solutions in the study area particularly and in coastal region generally in Vietnam to ensure water demand for irrigation and other purposes in the context of climate change and sea level rise in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.75-82
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• 2007

When one forecasts urban water demand in a long-term, multivariate model can give more benefits than per capita requirement model. However, the former has shortcomings in that statistically high explanatory power cannot be obtained well, and change in customer behavior cannot be considered. If the past water consumption effects the future water demand, dynamic model may describe real water consumption data better than static model, i.e. the existing multivariate model. On these grounds, this study built dynamic model using system dynamics. From a case study in Seoul and Busan city, dynamic model was expected to forecast water demand more descriptively and reliably.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2012

This study was aim to predict future land-cover changes and to analyze regional land-cover changes in irrigation areas and agricultural reservoir watersheds under climate change scenario. To simulate the future land-cover under climate change scenario - A1B of the SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), Dyna-CLUE (Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects) was applied for modeling of competition among land-use types in relation to socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors. For the study areas, 8 agricultural reservoirs were selected from 8 different provinces covering all around nation. The simulation results from 2010 to 2100 suggested future land-cover changes under the scenario conditions. For Madun reservoir in Gyeonggi-do, total decrease amount of paddy area was a similar amount of 'Base demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020 published by MLTMA (Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), while the decrease amounts of paddy areas in other sites were less than the amount of 'High demand scenario' of Water Vision 2020. Under A1B scenario, all the land-cover results showed only slight changes in irrigation areas of agricultural reservoirs and most of agricultural reservoir watersheds will be increased continuously for forest areas. This approach could be useful for evaluating and simulating agricultural water demand in relation to land-use changes.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.22 no.5
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• pp.625-638
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• 2013

Recently, the occurrences of droughts have been increased because of global warming and climate change. Water resources that mostly rely on groundwater are particularly vulnerable to the impact of precipitation variation, one of the major elements of climate change, are very sensitive to changes in the seasonal distribution as well as the average annual change in the viewpoint of agricultural activity. In this study, the status of drought for the present and future on Jeju Island which entirely rely on groundwater using SPI and PDSI were analyzed considering regional distribution of crops in terms of land use and fluctuation of water demand. The results showed that the precipitation distribution in Jeju Island is changed in intensity as well as seasonal variation of extreme events and the amount increase of precipitation during the dry season in the spring and fall indicated that agricultural water demand and supply policies would be considered by regional characteristics, especially the western region with largest market garden crops. Regarding the simulated future drought, the drought would be mitigated in the SPI method because of considering total rainfall only excluding intensity variation, while more intensified in the PDSI because it considers the evapotranspiration as well as rainfall as time passed. Moreover, the drought in the northern and western regions is getting worse than in the southern region so that the establishment of regional customized policies for water supply in Jeju Island is needed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1105-1115
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• 2018

In Korea, there are only a few cases that quantitative evaluate the impacts of climate change on water supply. Therefore, to ensure stable water supply in the future, a water resources plan is needed to establish by analyzing the scenarios that take into consideration the various situations in the future. In this study, we analyzed the changes of various situations for the Nakdong River basin, and constructed it for the future scenario. The stability of the water supply was analyzed through the analysis of water supply and demand prospect for each scenario path. We selected the areas expected to experience difficulty in supplying water supply and analyzed the scenarios of future water shortage by region and water sector. Also, the effect of increasing water supply capacity through optimal integrated operation of water supply facilities was analyzed and presented. Analysis of the results shows that there is a difficulty in supplying water due to future climate change experienced in the Nakdong River basin. Therefore it is necessary to prepare various countermeasures in order to mitigate or solve this problem.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.11
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• pp.797-803
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• 2011

In this study, we developed the assessment method that evaluate the water demand management and calculate the water saving volume using water use indicator, and developed the system to link the water saving volume that occur through demand management and water supply and demand. The results from this study, local governments with poor water conditions should be followed to improve the water supply. And, future water demand estimates should be even considering it. We calculated the water saving volume of the Geum River basin using K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation And Planning System) and performed the water budget analysis. We found that the change of river flow, ground water level and reservoir water level, and it can be utilized for other demand.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.57 no.5
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• pp.1-12
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• 2015

The study aimed to project inflows and demmands for the agricultural reservoir watersheds in South Korea considering a variety of regional characteristics and the uncertainty of future climate information. The study bias-corrected and spatially downscaled retrospective daily Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios using non-parametric quantile mapping method to force Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Using the historical simulation, the skills of un-calibrated SWAT model (without calibration process) was evaluated for 5 reservoir watersheds (selected as well-monitored representatives). The study then, evaluated the performance of 9 GCMs in reproducing historical upstream inflow and irrigation demand at the five representative reservoirs. Finally future inflows and demands for 58 watersheds were projected using 9 GCMs projections under the two RCP scenarios. We demonstrated that (1) un-calibrated SWAT model is likely applicable to agricultural watershed, (2) the uncertainty of future climate information from different GCMs is significant, (3) multi-model ensemble (MME) shows comparatively resonable skills in reproducing water balances over the study area. The results of projection under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenario generally showed the increase of inflow by 9.4% and 10.8% and demand by 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively. More importantly, the results for different seasons and reservoirs varied considerably in the impacts of climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.516-516
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• 2022

Agricultural reservoirs are critical water resources structures to ensure continuous water supplies for rice cultivation in Korea. Climate change has increased the risk of reservoir failure by exacerbating discrepancies in upstream runoff generation, downstream irrigation water demands, and evaporation losses. In this study, the variations in water balance components of 400 major reservoirs during 1973-2017 were examined to identify the reservoirs with reliable storage capacities and resilience. A conceptual lumped hydrological model was used to transform the incident rainfall into the inflows entering the reservoirs and the paddy water balance model was used to estimate the irrigation water demand. Historical climate data analysis showed a sharp warming gradient during the last 45 years that was particularly evident in the central and southern regions of the country, which were also the main agricultural areas with high reservoir density. We noted a country-wide progressive increase in average annual cumulative rainfall, but the forcing mechanism of the rainfall increment and its spatial-temporal trends were not fully understood. Climate warming resulted in a significant increase in irrigation water demand, while heavy rains increased runoff generation in the reservoir watersheds. Most reservoirs had reliable storage capacities to meet the demands of a 10-year return frequency drought but the resilience of reservoirs gradually declined over time. This suggests that the recovery time of reservoirs from the failure state had increased which also signifies that the duration of the dry season has been prolonged while the wet season has become shorter and/or more intense. The watershed-irrigated area ratio (W-I_ratio) was critical and the results showed that a slight disruption in reservoir water balance under the influence of future climate change would seriously compromise the performance of reservoirs with W-I_ratio< 5.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.2
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• pp.311-331
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• 2021

Climate change with extreme hydrological events has become a significant concern for agricultural water systems. Climate change affects not only irrigation availability but also agricultural water requirement. In response, adaptation strategies with soft and hard options have been considered to mitigate the impacts from climate change. However, their implementation has become progressively challenging and complex due to the interconnected impacts of climate change with socio-economic change in agricultural circumstances, and this can generate more uncertainty and complexity in the adaptive management of the agricultural water systems. This study was carried out for the agricultural water supply system in Seongju dam watershed in Seonju-gun, Gyeongbuk in South Korea. The first step is to identify system disturbances. Climate variation and socio-economic components with historical and forecast data were investigated Then, as the second step, problematic trends of the critical performance were identified for the historical and future climate scenarios. As the third step, a system structure was built with a dynamic hypothesis (causal loop diagram) to understand Seongju water system features and interactions with multiple feedbacks across system components in water, agriculture, and socio-economic sectors related to the case study water system. Then, as the fourth step, a mathematical SD (system dynamics) model was developed based on the dynamic hypothesis, including sub-models related to dam reservoir, irrigation channel, irrigation demand, farming income, and labor force, and the fidelity of the SD model to the Seongju water system was checked.